Forecaster "belikewater" @XriskFYI @Swift_Centre @SamotsvetyF @RANDforecasting. Superforecaster® with Good Judgment Inc. PhD Neurosci, MA Econ. Opinions my own.
Michigan, USA
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But they won’t. Most of them will be long gone. In fact, most of today’s deniers, who prevent the implementation of policies we need, will be long gone and will never see or suffer the consequences of the decisions they inflict on the world.
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Katrina made landfall south of New Orleans, Louisiana as a Cat 3 hurricane.
Ida is forecasted to make landfall in the same spot, as a Cat 4 hurricane.
I didn't understand why they didn't call for more evacuations with Katrina, and I don't understand why they're not with Ida.
The 12z HWRF is just in, and it shows a 938mb / 115kt Category 4 just before landfall south of New Orleans.
Ida is on its way to becoming a monster hurricane.
ALT map of hwrf forecast of ida just before landfall
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In Singapore, for every 100 people who die of Covid, another 77 people die within 3 months after infection because of the after-effects of Covid (heart attacks, strokes, etc.). What is that number in the US, with our different population age structure? It can’t be too different.
In Singapore, "..the number of excess deaths ..as 2490 ..with an official COVID-19 death toll of 1403.. The remainder can be explained by patients who passed away from other illnesses within 90 days after being infected with COVID-19."
racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical…
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Meanwhile, in the actual universe, Covid is now the 8th leading cause of death for kids, nevermind the long-term risk of disability and disease from repeated infections.
npr.org/2023/01/31/115273826…
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If it's illegal to yell "FIRE!!!" in a crowded building if there's no fire, shouldn't it be illegal to yell "PLEASE REMAIN SEATED!!!" if there is a fire?
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Everyone really should read this article. #covid19 #coronavirus
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It's just wild that when some medical problem is noticed in women, especially younger women, male doctors so often bring up anxiety. If the same problem were seen in young *men*, they wouldn't even think about the possibility of anxiety playing a role.
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I have great respect for you and your work. But this simply isn't true. We have no reason to believe that Omicron won't cause long Covid, clotting-related problems, 60% increase in mortality rate after Covid, and neurological problems. This is NOT similar to flu.
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People have really short attention spans. They would rather normalize all kinds of risks to themselves and others than change their lives to deal with those risks. Also true for climate change. Careful thinking is hard, so they’d rather ignore inconvenient facts.
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@MichaelTWorley @TrumpCritic It looks like Ukraine really was able to retake the airfield by Kyiv!
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"To combat climate change, we don’t just need people to make better choices. We need to give people better options," writes @MichaelEMann bit.ly/30cpHk1?utm_source=tw…
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Covid + a hemorrhagic fever outbreak linked to an imported case of what is rumored to be Marburg.
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It’s the potential. Flu infects and causes illness in 5-15% of the country each year and kills around 0.12% of those. Yes, it’s bad. But this coronavirus could cause illness in, say, 30-90% and kill 0.1 to 5%. Do the math.
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This is astonishing! For $8k, a church bought & forgave all medical debt poor people owed to debt collectors in Iowa, which totaled $5M. They are working with an organization called RIP Medical Debt @RIPMedicalDebt. Check them out & consider donating here:
ripmedicaldebt.org/
"We asked them how much money it would take to forgive all the medical debt in Polk County," the Rev. Minna Bothwell said. "They responded, 'with what you have, you could forgive debt in all of Iowa.'" desmoinesregister.com/story/…
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Not underappreciated. It's just that younger people employed as healthcare workers and essential workers have more expected years of life to lose. Their fewer numbers do not justify their sacrifice. Also, survivors face #LongCovid and long-term or permanent organ damage.
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Are he and his buddies going to Muster in Grand Junction? And do what? Block I70? Take back the Sonic drive through and park with some SuperSONIC Bacon Double Cheeseburgers?
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This “moderate” transmissibility was enough for pH1N1. This “relatively low” virulence may be on a par with the 1918-19 flu pandemic. The only question is whether transmission will become sustained. Have caution, yes, but don’t downplay the danger, either.
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I give it a ~90% chance that the US will conduct direct strikes on Iran by the end of July, and maybe 75% before Sunday. Evacuations of US diplomats and citizens from Israel signal to me that strikes are imminent.
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I realize you're partly joking, but nice article here:
bbc.com/news/56523659
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I keep hearing a lot of reports in the past week or so of people getting Covid even though they're wearing an N95 or similar. BA.2 & Omicron are so extremely contagious. I wonder whether their masks don't fit perfectly, or whether just enough virus gets through to cause infection
Because the mandate was dropped last Monday a coworker thought it was ok to come in unmasked and sick. Even though I had on an N95 I still caught covid from her. I’m so mad about it
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Please start offering much more guidance to the public about preparing for the likelihood of a COVID19 coronavirus pandemic over the next 1-2 yrs. People should be told loudly, clearly, and regularly that now is the time to start preparing, much like for a hurricane.
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Prediction: all this US military buildup in Diego Garcia (B-2s, C-17As, etc.) over the past couple days and still ongoing is for an attack on Iran. I give it a 65% chance that we'll see an attack on Iran sometime between a couple days from now and a month from now. 1/5
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I agree it was not engineered. But it is also possible that it is a naturally occurring virus that was collected for study at the BSL4 lab and accidentally infected a human at some point during collection, amplification, study or disposal.
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A new book by @MichaelEMann:
The New Climate War publicaffairsbooks.com/title…
"Mann... outlines a plan for forcing our governments and corporations to wake up and make real change."
"This book will reach, inform, and enable citizens everywhere to join this battle for our planet."
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Trump said earlier, "We can't let them have a nuclear weapon. Something is going to happen very soon. I would rather have a peace deal than the other option, but the other option will solve the problem." I think this buildup is for the other option.
axios.com/2025/03/19/trump-l…
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Everyone keeps saying, "Don't panic!" But I haven't seen a single person panicking, although I'm sure there must be some. But the biggest problem I see is the opposite: not worrying at all, or nearly enough, due to some combination of lack of information, normalcy bias & denial.
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Everybody has spent so long saying, “Don’t panic.” But I truly have not seen anybody panicking the whole time. Instead, most people don’t seem to understand what is about to happen at all, and I really think many people need to worry far more than they are.
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Yes, good morning! Probably 6 B-2s (consistent with 4 hangars + 2 parking spaces reserved by NOTAM). USS Vinson to reach Middle East probably by around April 10-12 (depart Guam prob 3/28). Guided missile sub surfaced HI. Attack may start ~4/10-4/25.
Prediction: all this US military buildup in Diego Garcia (B-2s, C-17As, etc.) over the past couple days and still ongoing is for an attack on Iran. I give it a 65% chance that we'll see an attack on Iran sometime between a couple days from now and a month from now. 1/5
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I really don’t think this is likely to be some new pandemic. I strongly suspect it’s “just” unusually large/bad outbreaks of the usual suspects, including Mycoplasma, flu, RSV, etc. It’s worth watching, but I’m not at all having Dec/Jan 2020 vibes.
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Some updated forecasts:
* Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of June: 80%. By end of July: 85%.
* Regime change by the end of June: 80%. By the end of July: 85%.
Yes, those numbers are similar.
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And actually, it's just a little bit simpler to make a vaccine against a virus than it is to make one to prevent a form of dementia that isn't caused by a virus.
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I love this!!! So many people don't have housing with laundry, and laundromats are expensive. Those that do have laundry hookups in their housing often can't afford to keep appliances working, especially when nothing is designed to last.
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Exactly. What may make perfect sense to them may look completely irrational to us in some objective sense. We always have to look at situations from within their mindset.
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One thing I’m wondering about is whether fecal-oral transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Covid is occurring, and whether it’s going to become a significant mode of transmission. Some other coronaviruses are transmitted by the fecal-oral route and cause GI disease.
link.springer.com/article/10…
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If delta and Omicron overlap very little antigenically, do you think it’s possible that they could come to represent two distinct antigenic groups that cocirculate, analogous to H1N1 and H3N2 flu? I am coming to think that Omicron will not replace delta so much as join it.
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Actually, I think the Biden administration will do a much better job of helping than Bush and his people did. It won't be hard.
But I sure hope all levels of government are working together, getting prepared, and have all their "lessons learned" ducks in a row.
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Given that both chronic wasting disease (CWD) and Covid are endemic in white-tailed deer in North America, I wonder whether it might be useful to study whether prion disease is accelerated in these deer.
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It may or may not be a good decision, but it’s not racist to single out any country from which around 1/2 of all passengers has Covid when spread in your own country is far lower.
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It will be good to see the data on a variety of illnesses as they become available. How many years will it take before a ton of people won't blame it all on lockdowns/the economy/inflation/Biden/etc.?
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So the biggest problem with Trump "talking about terminating the Constitution" is that, "That plays right into the Democrats' hands"?
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Please remember that you're talking about the people you want to help you when you get sick. If they can't be protected, then they might not help you, or they might not be able to help you. Let us have compassion for those who risk their lives every day for all of us.
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The variants are more contagious. Even as cases of the "older" variants are falling (Rt < 1), cases of the newer, more contagious variants, and in particular B117, are rising (Rt > 1). It's a race between immunity from previous infection + vaccinations, and rapid spread of B117.
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It's important to acknowledge that the CFR we're all agonizing over now - whether it's 0.7%, or 1, 2, or 3.4% - is with appropriate medical care. It's time to let people know that the CFR most people will experience in the US without much social distancing will be much higher.
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I think Saudi refineries would likely be targeted before oil fields. That would cause a price spike in oil prices. In addition, US bases in the region would also be targeted, of course.
I suspect Trump is planning to bomb Iran no matter what.
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Just because there are superspreader events everywhere doesn't mean a lot of conferences aren't also superspreader events.
Also, one can almost completely avoid it by wearing an N95 or better mask. Not "zero chance to avoid it." I also wear a seat belt.
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It's fine to disagree w/ @lisa_iannattone on scientific points. I agree that nearly all MPX cases are in MSM. However, I have never seen @lisa_iannattone show anything but care & compassion for all. I believe your ad hominem attack is unfounded, & ad hominem is always wrong.
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Fomite transmission has been negligible. Ppl have prevented nearly all cases with N95 & similar masks.
But JN.1 is reaching new levels of preference for gut receptors, so this could change. Still, I think foodborne transmission will be <<25%. See thread.
Prediction: this winter, there will start to be substantial fecal-oral transmission of SARS-CoV-2, meaning that it will behave partly like a foodborne illness like norovirus. 1/
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Time to GET A BETTER MASK! My family upgraded to these:
Surgical masks by @armbrust_usa + mask braces by @FixTheMask offer 97% particle filtration efficiency.
High-quality filtration + excellent fit = excellent protection.
Don't forget to WEAR A FACE SHIELD, too.
Data in 🧵1/
‼️ New Certification Alert ‼️
We're officially the second ever certified Workplace Performance Plus mask.
That means we provide CDC approved data on filtration, breathability and FIT!
That's a #BetterMask
@armbrust_usa x @FixTheMask
armbrustusa.com/products/the…
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Vaccines and treatments aren't all we can do. We can:
1. Improve indoor air filtration/ventilation, & advocate for legislation for this. Indoor air filtration is most important step we can take to reduce transmission.
2. Wear N95 equiv masks.
3. Encourage less-risky behaviors.
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The risks of Covid are not only those associated with the acute disease. A substantial % of even those with mild acute disease get long Covid, clotting problems that lead to 1.5x to 4+x risk of cardiovascular events, 60% increased risk of mortality, brain & organ damage.
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It is extremely unlikely that Nu is this much more transmissible than Delta. Nu likely has a relative advantage over Delta from its ability to escape some amount of immunity. This estimate truly comes from comparing apples and oranges.
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At the beginning of the month, my forecast was that there was a 75% chance that the US and/or Israel would strike Iran by the end of the year, and 60% by the end of August. My forecast is at about 75% for a strike by the end of June now.
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Not just an eye exposure problem; cumulative exposure to aerosols accumulated in room air is likely a far bigger problem. I would think we would see a lot more pinkeye if the eyes were a major route of exposure.
In any case, face shields are a good thing to wear to help w/ both.
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Instead, this feels like a large-scale buildup to eliminate hardened underground facilities related to Iran's nuclear weapons program, and potentially also other underground weapons facilities. 3/5
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It's possible that this buildup of assets in Diego Garcia is all about the Houthis, but it all seems like a bit of overkill for addressing the Houthi threat, especially as there were missions to destroy fortified underground Houthi targets last October and in January. 2/5
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I look forward to a monkeypox-specific vaccine one day that is given as part of a routine child vaccination series, so that everyone is protected.
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Also, I don't think the ballistic missile city is the main target. I think the main targets are related to Iran's nuclear weapons program. But, sure, if they're going to hit nuclear facilities with B-2s, they'll probably hit the underground missile city as well.
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Not just that, but did you know that aerosols can be blocked from *either side of the mask*? The physics is the same on both sides of the mask! Don't you wish this news could be understood more broadly? (It was mystifying to hear ppl say in 2020 that ppl shldn't wear masks, too.)
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We all need much more guidance than this. What can we expect to happen if (when) the virus becomes pandemic? What will fed govt do? What will states, counties, cities do? What can people do to prepare themselves, families, businesses, communities? We are wasting precious time.
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There are many types of coronaviruses. It’s a family of viruses. There are 4 of them that infect humans on a regular basis, in addition to the SARS, MERS and new Wuhan coronaviruses. No mystery here.
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The paper found that FIT MATTERS MORE THAN MATERIAL.
These masks all had ~70-80% FFE:
* 2ply knit nylon mask w/ aluminum nose bridge & stretchy ear loops, washed once (79.0%)
* procedure mask w/ ear loops, in nylon hosiery sleeve (80.2%)
* surgical mask w/ ties (71.5%) 3/
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The Islamic Republic regime in Iran is done. It will collapse within days to weeks. There are some indications that internal opposition might also be participating in assassinating regime officials.
The big question is, what comes next? Who will lead Iran?
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Prediction: this winter, there will start to be substantial fecal-oral transmission of SARS-CoV-2, meaning that it will behave partly like a foodborne illness like norovirus. 1/
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Exactly. I’m so tired of hearing, “It’s their choice to work in healthcare!“ At some level, yes, it is. But is it fair, as a society, to choose to put all healthcare workers at risk? Let alone to overwhelm them.
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A lot of people got this wrong. Yes, he is among the more than 7 billion humans who makes mistakes. But it’s great that he is embracing the right thing to do now. Would you rather he didn’t?
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Or, this could also be an attempt to make Iran an offer it can't refuse: negotiate a new nuclear weapons deal, or else. 4/5
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Especially good time to bow out, as Covid ravages school children and employees and all of their families, leaving the ones that survive with probably lifelong aftereffects of Covid.
We'll all remember your pseudoscientific advocacy against caution with Covid, @ProfEmilyOster.
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The USS Carl Vinson was ordered to the Red Sea. I suspect it will be in the region to work with the B-2s, as there's already a carrier strike group in the Red Sea. And a guided missile sub was spotted coming up for air in Hawaii. It's likely that a lot of assets are being readied
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It's a bit more complicated than that, and a lot of people around the world are going to be hungry. See the full thread here.
Fertilizer usage affects yields. Reduced usage of commercial fertilizer is not always replaced by other sources. Worldwide fertilizer price increases are decreasing fertilizer usage. Lower yields are expected.
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The onset of Lewy body dementia typically occurs many years after Lewy body formation starts. I do think we are going to see more cases of and earlier onset of Lewybody dementia and Parkinson’s disease, but it’s going to take time.
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I'd also give it a 30% chance that this is also about regime change in Iran. There isn't remotely the type of buildup seen before the Iraq invasion, so I think this possibility is unlikely. But groups in Iran could be ready, and the US could be planning to help them. 5/5
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I have seen it suggested that people keep CO2 levels below 600. CO2 meters aren't cheap (~$250), though. Most homes, esp. older ones, have poor ventilation that results in CO2 accumulating (which is unhealthy by itself). If you keep CO2 down, you've got ventilation.
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This paper, published in a highly respected medical journal, showed that cloth, procedure and surgical #masks THAT FIT REALLY WELL can protect the wearer from breathing in particles with ~80% "fitted filtration efficiency," or "FFE."
Here's the paper. 2/
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam…
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I don’t go anywhere w/o a mask at this point unless I am far from other people outside. That’s the reality of this disease. I choose not to accept the risk of getting Covid on average 5x/decade and with that, all of the associated cardiovascular, dementia, long Covid risk, etc.
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Personally, I don’t actually want to shame people. What I want to do is call attention to how things could be done better. Masking is one of them. More important would be air purification. It doesn’t make anti-maskers go crazy, & it’s extremely effective at preventing infection.
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I think we have to choose between going back to living life as it was before Covid, and protecting ourselves from dangerous health problems from repeated Covid infections. We need to stop pretending that we can have both. 1/
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I suspect that "tens of thousands" will turn out to be a serious underestimate of the number of people who have long Covid or other long-term problems. #covid19
"By the middle of February, we expect 500,000 deaths in the US," Dr. Walensky said. "That doesn't speak to the tens of thousands of people living with a yet uncharacterized syndrome after they've recovered." Follow public health guidelines now. @DrLindaMD
cnn.com/2021/01/17/health/us…
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It is not clear to me whether B.1.1.529 is inherently more transmissible than Delta at all. It may turn out to be, but the current data in SA does not provide enough information to say so. Immunity & also seasonality are confounding factors. 2/2
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This is how it's done. Anyone who wants to dine inside a restaurant should request this level of air purification. Anyone who wants to go to a restaurant near Mississauge, ON should go here. 👏👏👏👏
Been able to keep COVID out of the restaurant with the right protocols and the help of the 4 Iris sisters. They are filtering the air all day to keep customers and staff safe
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Actually, ideally, we could get case numbers really low, then, like, say, South Korea, we could test/trace/isolate. Their economy is open AND they have very few new cases. We should focus on building that capacity rather than arguing about closed vs open.
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I really think air purification is much more important than masking and also a much more achievable goal. Air purification suitable for room volumes cuts transmission 80-90%. Even if everyone wore N95s, they still eat lunch. Air purification + mask on YOUR child = pretty good.
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The NOTAMs for Diego Garcia expire May 1, and the USS Harry Truman just had its Red Sea deployment extended by "another month" from the end of March. So clearly, a lot of assets will be in the area through the end of April. And this operation probably won't just take 1 day.
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My updated timeframe for the start of an attack is April 10-25. I think the B-2 mission will wait for the USS Vinson to arrive, and the Vinson will probably leave Guam on 3/28 and take at least 2 weeks. And the plan is to wrap this up before May 1.
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Its recent jump may mean that the version(s) that have been circulating are suboptimal and less fully human adapted, compared to more transmissible variants. It's just that the suboptimal versions spread so well already that it's easy to mistake them for fully adapted.
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