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The world’s largest producer responsible for ~40% of global uranium supply has said its production capabilities are 10% lower than previously announced, removing ~5% of global supply from the market. In addition to this, Kazatomprom are able to exercise an option to produce 20% below this production capability, which they said they expect to exercise given the ‘value over volume’ approach.
Kazatomprom is recognising their pricing power in uranium and will force utilities into the market to contract.
View this release as very smart, very positive for uranium names ahead of WNA in London first week of September.
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Even the gold standard in #uranium mining faces difficulty from time to time. 2.5% of primary supply gone for 2025, just as the largest producer cuts production capabilities by 10% for 2026. A perfect storm ahead of WNA in London next week.
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We expect the new KAP sulphuric acid facility to be delayed further to 2028-2029 (initial projection 2026).
Why does this matter?
Because without acid, Budenovskoye can not ramp up to full production...without Budenovskoye, Kazakh production does not meaningfully increase...and also, the first three years of production will be locked up in contracts with Russia anyways.
So...maybe the West see meaningful volumes of #uranium from Budenovskoye in 2034-2035...just before Cigar Lake mine life ends.
Now try QUADRUPLING nuclear capacity without fuel. Either we see SIGNIFICANTLY higher prices that incentivise SIGNIFICANT new production, or Western dreams of a nuclear future will remain just that.
A perfect storm is brewing in nuclear fuel markets...
inbusiness.kz/ru/news/krupny…
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For too long there has been a growing disconnect between the US' nuclear ambition, and the disregard for the fuel needed to achieve it.
This is why the news out of the US is so significant.
It addresses the fact you cannot double, triple, quadruple nuclear capacity without fuel, especially when you only produce 1% of your requirements domestically.
It will be near term demand that will drive prices to $150+ and we may have just seen the most indisputable signal from the US government that their ambition is to build new nuclear, and build it soon.
This is what will reshape the demand side of the equation for nuclear fuel. Near term demand.
Imagine a world where all of these nations proclaiming their nuclear ambitions actually start to build nuclear at the pace of China.
This could now be a reality in the US with by stripping unnecessary bureaucracy out of the NRC, building new nuclear on pre-licensed military sites, and a call to subsidize nuclear projects with government funding.
This is an important day for nuclear power in the US, and an example for the rest to follow.
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In the finer print of the release, we note that KAP inventories at both the group and attributable level are the lowest in a decade. KAP's strategy around inventory is to always keep at least 6-7 months of attributable production procured. At today's levels, inventories represent just over 5 months of attributable production so have fallen below this level for the first time since 2016.
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Grant Isaac: "Until we see stronger demand in the market, until we see utilities calling for that, the investments wont be made to fill that red wedge."
70% of utility needs through 2045 remain uncovered - thats 3.2bn lbs.
Tim Gitzel: "With each month that long term contracts remains below replacement rate, this only increases."
#uranium
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This week in the Hoot: KHNP’s latest uranium tender falls flat—again—exposing the deep disconnect between legacy utility procurement strategies and today’s tight, producer-driven market.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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The #uranium market enters a new phase: Buyer fear. The Hoot this week explores the structural fragility now gripping the spot market, where even a whisper of demand is triggering sharp price reactions.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Congratulations to @ASPIsotopes on accelerating the commercialisation of Ytterbium-176. This is the first quantum enrichment plant $ASPI have built and the same technology they are aiming to use for U-235 to produce HALEU for next-gen nuclear reactors.
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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Ever wonder how a fuel buyer thinks about uranium procurement?
Listen to this podcast with Ocean Wall CEO Nick Lawson (@lawse) going head to head with Blue Energy CEO Jake Jurewicz (previous Exelon employee) on Bloomberg’s Merryn Talks Money podcast.
open.spotify.com/episode/4c5…
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Congratulations to all of the team @ASPIsotopes on this landmark agreement with @TerraPower
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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Congratulations to @ASPIsotopes who have entered into a term sheet with Bill Gates-backed @TerraPower for the construction of a #HALEU production facility to fuel TerraPower's natrium reactor.
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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ASP Isotopes will host an investor access event in South Africa from 14-16th January 2025
During 2024, the Company welcomed over 60 investors and corporate clients to its facilities in South Africa.
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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An important read is this recent interview with @TerraPower CEO Chris Levesque
“We've done due diligence there. They have the technical capabilities…importantly they have full IAEA protocols in place there because enrichment is a sensitive technology.”
energyintel.com/00000193-ad0…
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“The Company is happy to share with investors that scientists from ASP Isotopes have already been active at Pelindaba and the construction of the first of two HALEU test facilities has been completed.”
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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$UEC Launches United States Uranium Refining & Conversion Corp - answering Washington's call to secure U.S. energy independence.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Congratulations to @ASPIsotopes who have announced an MOU with NECSA for the research, development and ultimate construction of a HALEU production facility will take place at Pelindaba
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
Congratulations to all the team at @ASPIsotopes for starting commercial production of enriched Carbon-14 at its first Aerodynamic Separation Process (ASP) enrichment facility in Pretoria, South Africa.
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ASP Isotopes Inc. Responds To Short Seller “Report”
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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🚨Flash Note🚨
“We are in the greatest time we’ve ever had for uranium” #nuclearsympo
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Cameco jolts the market with fresh supply cuts just as the nuclear industry converges on London for the WNA Symposium, historically a catalyst for uranium price momentum.
thehoot731.substack.com/p/cu…
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ASP Isotopes Issues Letter to Shareholders $ASPI
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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Live from London 🇬🇧: We’re covering the WNA Symposium all week — exclusive insights only on The Hoot.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Concept to Cash Flows - ASP Isotopes Graduates to Commercial Status $ASPI
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Our last note from an eventful WNA Symposium 2025 #nuclearsympo
“The old question of “why nuclear?” has finally been retired. The only question left, voiced in every corridor and pub across London this week, is: how fast can we build? “
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo……
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A full room here in Zurich for the Arnova Capital Nuclear Conference. Delighted to see so many clients and friends to talk all things #nuclear.
@UraniumEnergy
@ASPIsotopes
@oklo
@LightbridgeCorp
@INL
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Paul and the team at ASP Isotopes have a proven track record in bringing complex separation projects on-time and under budget, specifically in South Africa.
Much like the initial discovery of the Klydon assets, we believe ASPI shareholders would be owning a non-distressed asset at a distressed valuation.
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If you’re bullish on #uranium, Geiger Counter Investment Trust is one of the purest, highest-beta ways to express that view. This is a specialist vehicle with one job: capture upside in uranium equities.
Here’s why it matters now:
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Jurewicz: “I got to work with one of the largest nuclear fuel programming teams at Exelon when I was there on a corporate strategy team for six years. Exelon, now Constellation owns about I think it's 22, 23 reactors in the US…they buy more nuclear fuel than pretty much anybody and we would buy pretty far on the future. Uranium has not been a huge concern, largely because there are major uranium supplies in the US, in Canada and Australia and not just in Kazakhstan. It's just that it's been such a steady state supply and demand that there hasn't been a lot of investment in new supply and over the years, the supply is just slowly shuttered. If the price really spiked, just like anything, you'd see a lot of new supply come online in uranium mining.”
If you’d like to hear Nick’s response, you can listen above…
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on.ft.com/4jgpyF4 Nuclear boom sparks urgent call for investment in new uranium mines
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This week in the Hoot, we look at CGN Mining’s landmark 2026–28 offtake structure and why Ocean Wall is calling time on the spot price as the dominant pricing reference in uranium markets. We also discuss Meta’s nuclear mega-deal with Constellation, the $18.7 billion Czech-KHNP agreement that signals nuclear’s re-entry into Europe’s energy mix.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Congratulations to @ASPIsotopes on their latest MOU, providing further credibility to their Quantum Enrichment technology that has the potential to commercialise HALEU production for next-generation SMRs @lawse
ASP Isotopes Inc. Enters Into Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) With Second US-based Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Company To Supply High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU).
Click below for full story, including potential customer interest.
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
#NASDAQ: $ASPI
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Yellow Cake Plc currently trading at a 20.47% discount to NAV:
Local Currency: GBP
Date: 14/06/2022
NAVPS (local currency): 426
Mkt cap (US$m): 745.92
Share Price (local): 339.0
Live #Uranium Price ($/lb): 48.99
Implied Spot: 38.96
Discount to NAV: 20.47%
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At the 2025 Master Investor Show, Nick and Ben offer a comprehensive look at the nuclear fuel cycle—from uranium mining to enrichment—and highlight which segments offer the most compelling opportunities for investors.
Watch the full discussion here: piped.video/watch?v=1s3DALU4…
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The future of sell side research is here!
See our investment thesis on @ASPIsotopes on the link below.
app.curationconnect.com/comp…
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One of the key issues with deploying GW-scale nuclear is replicability. Welcome to the nuclear party @PalantirTech
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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This week in The Hoot, we look at the shift in sentiment in the market and how uranium and nuclear equities have recovered.
After a challenging start to the year, uranium prices have bounced back, driven by tighter supply, stronger utility demand, and renewed confidence in nuclear as a critical part of the global energy transition. Uranium equities like URNM, Cameco, and Lightbridge have all posted impressive gains, recovering from their March lows, with some stocks up over 20% in recent weeks.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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See Press Release from ASPI - 8K - announcing that Armistice Capital Master Fund exercised warrants on Friday. We note that a large sell order went through yesterday putting pressure on the ASPI isotopes share price.
ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filin…
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Ocean Wall’s ion-U:
⁃ #Uranium hits 11-year high of over $63/lb
⁃ #Sprott AM Ceo: “We’re in the second inning of the cycle”
⁃ #Athabasca Basin update (Fission 3.0)
⁃ U.K. all in on #nuclear & #SMRs
⁃ Yellow Cake execute $3m buyback
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New nuclear pledges from Google & Amazon in the same week following Microsoft & Constellation deal to reopen Three Mile Island last month.
#Uranium demand models might need a rethink.
aboutamazon.com/news/sustain…
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Scott Melbye spoke at WNA 2025 on Nuclear PPPs #nuclearsympo
“The industry must get to work, and the Trump administration is approaching it in a commercial, investment-oriented way”
👇👇
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Ahead of the WNA Symposium, Ocean Wall CEO, Nick Lawson @lawse, sat down with Andre Liebenberg, CEO of Yellow Cake Plc $YCA, and Dustin Garrow, Managing Principal of Nuclear Fuel Associates, to discuss the ever-changing landscape of the #uranium market:
oceanwall.com/uranium-firesi…
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Both businesses have a focus on critical and strategically important materials – ASPI / Renergen will be a global leader in liquid helium production, one of the most sought-after critical minerals globally.
Shared customer base - Renergen’s extensive customer network in industrial gases significantly increases sales targets for ASP Isotopes, specifically for Silicon-28.
90% of the cost of production for an ASP Isotopes production plant is energy - Renergen’s asset also produces low-cost LNG ($0.35 per mcf) which could see a large-scale plants’ cash costs reduced by 94%
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Will Laser Enrichment Be the Future of Nuclear Fuel?
The Breakthrough Institute explores how laser enrichment might unlock vast reserves of depleted uranium, potentially reshaping the nuclear energy landscape.
"TerraPower, which is building a fast reactor that will run on HALEU, signed an agreement last fall with the South African firm, ASP Isotopes,, which is developing a laser system for separating isotopes of uranium and other elements."
thebreakthrough.org/issues/e….
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⁃ #Japanese power crunch accelerating reactor restarts
⁃ #European restarts in #Belgium and #Switzerland
⁃ £8bn investment manager eyes nuclear financing opportunity
⁃ #Uranium tops MS #commodities thermometer again
⁃ #YCA short interest likely quant generated vs active
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As energy demand accelerates, the nuclear sector is grappling with a deepening uranium deficit. This week, we examine the fragile US restart pipeline, the slow return of supply, and why even small-scale additions are becoming pivotal.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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#Enrichment continues to come under the spotlight as the world seeks to reduce reliance on #Russian enrichment capacity. #RBC highlights laser enrichment tech in their $CCO upgrade considering $CCO own 49% of #Silex Systems - see our report on Silex here: oceanwall.com/wp-content/upl…
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ASP Isotopes Inc. Announces an Agreement Relating to the Potential Acquisition of Renergen Limited
Expected to Create a Global Critical Materials Company
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
The goal of the combined group is to generate over $300 million in annual EBITDA in 2030, and completion of ‘Phase 1’ is estimated to add $8.5m in annual EBITDA from Q2 2026.
@ASPIsotopes
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ASP Isotopes Inc. to Host Investor Webcast on Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 8:00 a.m. EST
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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Ocean Wall #Nuclear Conference
Who would be interested in a FREE virtual conference going over investment opportunities in the entire nuclear value chain? We would end the day with a panel of institutional portfolio managers to get insight into how the buy side looks at investing in nuclear…
We would cover:
Power Generation
#Uranium Mining
Conversion & Enrichment
Nuclear Waste
Speak to the Portfolio Managers
Yes or no?
96%
Yes please
4%
No thanks
337 votes • Final results
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Liquid helium is an “irreplaceable” mineral in the medical, semiconductor, energy industries which are ASP Isotopes’ three target markets.
The helium market is forecast to grow at 8.3% CAGR to $32bn by 2032, prices have appreciated by over 20% CAGR over the last decade and have suffered four global shortages since 2006.
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Chris Levesque, TerraPower President and CEO said: “We are optimistic about ASP Isotope’s enrichment capabilities and planned timeline to help ensure advanced nuclear energy can achieve its necessary role in meeting climate energy targets.”
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Centrus pushing for tariffs on centrifuge equipment, not on LEU, to reinforce U.S. energy independence and defense capabilities
regulations.gov/comment/BIS-…
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This week in the Hoot we look at Fermi America’s bold move to anchor the U.S. nuclear renaissance in Amarillo, Texas, with Westinghouse’s AP1000 reactors, and what it means for baseload power and AI infrastructure. We also break down Kazatomprom’s 10% production capacity cut and its implications for long-term uranium prices.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Key Highlights:
Strategic Loan Agreement - TerraPower will provide a term loan to partially fund the construction of a first-of-its-kind HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) enrichment facility in South Africa. ASPI is currently in discussions with financial institutions for the remaining non-dilutive financing, protecting current shareholder value.
Long-Term Supply Agreement - A 10-year contract has been signed for 150 metric tonnes of HALEU, with deliveries set to begin in 2028 and continue through 2037. The new enrichment facility, located at Pelindaba, is designed to produce up to 15 MTU annually, with production slated to begin in 2027, pending regulatory approvals.
Future U.S. Expansion Potential - TerraPower and ASPI will also explore collaboration opportunities to establish domestic uranium enrichment capabilities in the United States, tapping into ASPI’s innovative technologies in a new geography.
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Congratulations to @ASPIsotopes on the successful placing of >$20m into the Quantum Leap Energy (QLE) Convertible Note.
QLE aim to apply their Quantum Enrichment technology to uranium to address the growing need for HALEU for next-generation reactors.
ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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Thank you to @maggielake and @RealVision for hosting our CEO @lawse to discuss the 'Glowing Promise of the #Uranium Trade' and the broader outlook for the uranium trade in the years ahead.
See full interview here rvtv.io/3QAxF1K
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The Hoot by Ocean Wall
Jargon-free and curated insights for #uranium and #nuclear investors ⚛️
Our weekly newsletters will be posted every Friday, starting tomorrow.
Subscribe below!
thehoot731.substack.com/
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From the ASPI 10Q:
“In May 2025, the Company entered into a Loan Agreement with TerraPower, which provides conditional commitments from TerraPower to the Company through one of its wholly-owned U.S.-based subsidiaries (“Borrower”) for a multiple advance term loan totaling $22,000,000 for the purpose of partially funding the construction of a proposed new uranium enrichment facility in South Africa.”
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This week in the Hoot: The lights are flickering—and not just metaphorically. As AI pushes global power demand into overdrive, this issue dives into the “Baseload Bottleneck” and why firm, around-the-clock energy is no longer optional. From the DOE’s blackout warning to Spain’s grid collapse and China’s nuclear charge, we unpack the geopolitical, technological, and economic stakes of failing to match AI-scale compute with AI-scale energy. We also examine the new tariffs on Kazakhstan and Canada—and why uranium may be next, as Trump’s move on copper looks increasingly like a preview of what’s to come.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Our free deal rationale report can be found here
thehoot731.substack.com/p/he…
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#Uranium and its New Silk Road - Further Problems for Western Buyers
In our latest report, we discuss potential supply issues arising for #Kazakh produced #uranium reaching western buyers as a result of increased sanctions against #Russia.
linkedin.com/posts/ocean-wal…
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This week in The Hoot: US nuclear momentum surges as the DOE launches its fast-track reactor pilot, QLE–Fermi sign a landmark enrichment deal, SMR developers chase $500mn via SPACs, and defence, data-centre, and fuel-cycle projects accelerate across the country.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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"This is a proud moment for GE Vernova Hitachi and Ontario as we move from vision to reality with construction of the G7's first SMR, the BWRX-300.”
Ontario has officially started planning construction on the first of four GE Hitachi BWRX-300 small modular reactors (SMRs) at Darlington, marking the G7's first grid-scale SMR project. The total budget for the Darlington New Nuclear Project is approximately $20.9 billion CAD, covering site preparation, engineering, and the construction of all four reactors. Each 300 MW unit will power 300,000 homes once completed by 2029. This marks the first deployment of GE Hitachi's SMR design, with the company also shortlisted for projects in the U.S., U.K., Poland, Estonia, and Sweden.
news.ontario.ca/en/release/1…
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This week in The Hoot, Cameco takes centre stage with a resolute message on supply discipline, strategic patience, and the expanding promise of Westinghouse—highlighting AP1000 demand and a transformative approach to reactor deployment in the U.S. and Europe.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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#Silex Systems (ASX: SLX) now c.+170% since we initiated coverage in March. For our full report on this third generation #uranium enrichment company, please see here - oceanwall.com/wp-content/upl…
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We are at the World Nuclear Symposium in London with over 700 other attendees! Please email ben@oceanwall.com to book a meeting.
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Ocean Wall CEO, Nick Lawson (@lawse) as part of this afternoon’s panel at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne discussing ‘The nuclear comeback - what are the challenges?’
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Love these guys work. If you haven’t already checked them out it’s a must read Substack.
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Full update to follow #WNFC
Key themes:
- #Transportation risk - rising costs, #insurance and unloading
- #Utility inventories far below ESA-prescribed benchmark
- #Uranium enrichment and #conversion capacity will not be increased on market sentiment but on firm contracts
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Yellow Cake NAV Update:
Local Currency: GBP
Date: 20/07/2022
NAVPS (local currency): 400
Mkt cap (US$m): 790.50
Share Price (local): 359.2
Live #Uranium Price ($/lb): 45.98
Implied Spot: 41.24
Discount to NAV: 10.30%
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Yellow Cake NAV Update
Local Currency: GBP
Date: 16/05/2022
NAVPS (local currency): 432
Mkt cap (US$m): 825.51
Share Price (local): 368.4
Live #Uranium Price ($/lb)50.24
Implied Spot: 42.87
Discount to NAV: 14.66%
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Ocean Wall are delighted to formally close the private placement of over $8m for ASPI Isotopes (NASDAQ: ASPI).
ASPI are pioneering Quantum Enrichment technology for the production of HALEU, presenting the potential of a scalable, low-cost solution to the global HALEU deficit.
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This week in the Hoot, we spotlight Geiger Counter Investment Trust (GCL), which continues to offer a rare value entry into the #uranium bull market, trading at a discount despite holding some of the sector’s most strategic names
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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This week in The Hoot, we track a historic shift in U.S. nuclear energy policy as President Trump moves to radically reshape the regulatory landscape, potentially setting the stage for a new era of reactor construction and domestic fuel production. Alongside this, ASP Isotopes secures a transformative agreement with TerraPower, Kazakhstan takes decisive steps to nationalize its uranium sector, and Goldman Sachs publishes a major investment thesis positioning nuclear as central to the global energy transition. From near-term demand catalysts to geopolitical realignment in uranium markets, this edition captures the inflection points shaping the future of the nuclear fuel cycle.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Nuclear & Geothermal - Big Tech Are Placing Their Bets - mailchi.mp/2014ab685c78/ben-…
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Pleasure as always!
Great Members Webinar session w/ Nick & Ben from @oceanwall2. Members will have the replay available shortly.
Nick & Ben highlighted the incredible disconnect between the "nuclear growth" story & the strategic importance of procuring uranium...a disconnect that will NOT last.
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We were fortunate enough to sit down with @Charlotte_McL @DigMedia last week to discuss this uranium cycle and what needs to happen for us to advance into its latter stages. piped.video/B-DbHaCVEi0
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This week in the Hoot: Holtec dominates the spotlight as it redefines what it means to be a nuclear energy leader. We also look at Orano’s challenges in Niger, and the shifting geopolitical and regulatory environment shaping the global nuclear renaissance.
open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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