Executive Chairman & Founder of Ocean Wall Merchant Bank and Ocean Wall Corp (US), Chairman of Chorus Intelligence, Founding Chair ALMT

Mayfair
Morgan Stanley has just launched its National Security (MSXXNSEC) index. ASP Isotopes holds a 1.6% weighting as does Lightbridge. Both positioned it as mid tier components among the nuclear and #uranium group. This inclusion signals recognition of both company’s role in the national security and isotope supply chain narrative Also included are Energy Fuels USA RareEarths, UEC, MP Materials Hence the rally of 25% for $ASPI today
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I just want to add to the conversation tonight on comments from Kazatomprom’s management around depletion. After the technically adroit Askar Batyrbayev, the subsequent CCOs of $KAP I have met have been an ever decreasing circle. As is well documented KAP is a revolving door of management. Some have been excellent and some terrible but all ultimately are defanged and manage such a vast operation as apparatchiks. On 12th January, ahead of their Q4s this coming Thursday, KAP announced a production downgrade due to the challenges related to the availability of sulphuric acid as well as delays in completing construction works at the newly developed deposits. It is highly probable the downgrade is a lot bigger next week than the 10% forecast. Having spent a lot of time in Kazakhstan this year there could be a >20% cut to production for 2024 and a *significant* cut for 2025 If I was the new CEO Meirzhan Yussupov (appointed September 2023) I would be tempted to kitchen sink. Yussupov is young ambitious and dynamic - why labour under the issues of the past. At @oceanwall2 we often wonder with all the issues facing KAP if they can actually fulfil their contractual obligations to all existing customers throughout 2024. We have been routinely told by KAP for three years that we are wrong - whether it was on transport routes via the Caspian & the Black Sea, commitments to buyers or production numbers. So far we have the first two. When I presented our production forecasts to KAP management back to them last summer in Astana the (then) CEO Mukanov and CFO were subsequently dismissed before I could get a reply to our work. This is the world's largest producer of #uranium and all this is happening during a period when the Chinese and Russians are co opting Kazakhstan to supply them over the West.
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Late on Friday afternoon the news that Russia has made good on their previous threat from September to introduce an export ban on $uranium to the US saw the spot price move $3 higher. It provided the largest positive daily move in the spot price since January when Kazatomprom announced a downwards revision of its 2024 guidance. In 2006 when Cameco’s Cigar Lake flooded the uranium price rallied 7x in 6 months as utilities rushed to buy uranium head-to-head with the apex predators - hedge funds. The chart enclosed shows you where upstream oxide prices will go as frontend EUP has rallied close to 400% since Russia’s invasion. @oceanwall2 Ben and I are now believe the Cigar Lake moment is here again.
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There are no #uranium lbs. Fact. Producers are buyers. Sequesters are now thwarted. The game moves to something that we have yet to have a concept of. ‘Force majeure’ becomes part of the uranium vernacular. NPPs fight for lbs against hedge funds. $250 lb
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After a huge rally there was inevitably going to be retracement.    Uranium was $110 lb offered after the KAP production cut on 1st February. It felt like #uranium went up every day from $50 lbs last summer and now has plateaued recently at over $100 lb. We suspect a lot of recent investors think that prices have topped.     Earlier this month having uranium on CNBC hourly bulletins and Jim Cramer on Mad Money tipping $UEC was never going to end well! The danger of this is it becomes a meme trade and hence the inevitable lament of  "why aren't my $CCJ OTM calls exploding up?"    Maybe it is the hangover that CCJ never had a production cut? This was not something we had ever factored in but post $KAP there was obviously disappointment they didn't.    There was a Barron's article recently comparing uranium to lithium. It is very much not as there is little to no supply coming on line in the near term. At nameplate we have only 15m lbs coming online in the US in the next three years.    All Western converters are overfeeding. The price of UF6 and SWU is your crystal ball for the ore. Also the futures market is in contango Dec 25 is $110.60 lb, Dec 26 $113 lb, Dec 27 $115.6 lb. We can't think of another commodity in contango like this.    The Kazakhs have warned and are unable to operate their ISR sites anywhere near capacity without requisite sulfuric acid that is in very short supply. KAP's number on March 15th will provide further visibility into the ongoing issues from the world's largest producer revealing, we believe, both inventory decline and the scale of their sulfuric acid issues.    The Trans Caspian route is broken and tensions have risen again with Azerbaijan and Armenia.    Biden is rumoured this Friday to bring in stricter sanctions on Russia over Navalny's death that may or not include uranium.     Spot was flat yesterday when uranium equities went into a tailspin. It wasn't just UEC the whole sector got hit   SPUT is 11.38% discount to NAV and YCA is 21%.  So you are paying less than $80 lbs!!!
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The Next Stage of the Fuel Market Cycle: Fear, Specifically, Buyer Fear We are currently in the "government legislature" phase, but yesterday's SPUT news marked a shift, with a sharp move in spot prices, signaling the start of a new psychological stage: fear, and more precisely, fuel buyer fear. We’ve seen this movie before. In 2007, it was Deutsche, Goldman, and the hedge funds who stepped in ahead of the utilities, pushing the price of #uranium from $20 to $143/lb. This time, the script is more dangerous. The spot market is broken, and the pounds behind the quantum of bids simply don’t exist. That disconnect could drive prices far higher. It all fits our original thesis, only now, the apex predators aren’t hedge funds, they’re hyperscalers.
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Even at the lower end of $KAP’s scale this equates to a miss of -17.6% on previous production estimates for 2024. In the perspective of 135m lbs of global annual supply this removes another 7.3% #uranium from the global market.   While exact numbers were not given on how KAP’s ongoing issues will impact 2025 production, the current estimates of 31,000 tU are *nigh on impossible*. Simply put, the quantum of sulphuric acid to ramp up production to these levels will not be available in 2024, which is when KAP will need to start drilling, in order to achieve a meaningful increase in production.
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World’s largest uranium producer slashes production target on.ft.com/3MdPUt0 Then this…… -$KAP inventories down a further 31% from Dec23 -Budenovskoye ramp up has been delayed until at least 2027 -KAP will not commit to any comment on 2026 production and will therefore not announce until this time next year -CFO has resigned as of Monday this week. He has been there for 11 months -70% of KAP revenue came from China this quarter
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Post $KAP numbers we have just put out “The Scramble for Uranium has Begun.” Aside from lower production numbers we have a big downgrade to inventories. Last disclosed inventory levels were 8,000 tU, @oceanwall2 expect this number to be lower to the tune of ~1,500-2,000 tU resulting in inventory levels *falling by 37% YoY*
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Uranium prices hit record as thirsty AI data centres add to market squeeze on.ft.com/4h1ESEI The @FT have adapted our @oceanwall2 chart showing enriched #uranium is >+500% since Russia’s invasion. U3O8 has significantly lagged and this is the interesting part of the trade. Upstream will begin to pull to par.
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When @oceanwall2 first started sending this chart out in September you can see the enriched #uranium price was +325% since the start of the Ukrainian war vs spot +61%. The argument is that downstream prices of finished nuclear fuel would tell you where the uranium spot price was going. Four months later enriched uranium is 506% higher whilst spot is +48%. As most participants know the uranium spot market is broken by its illiquidity and can move significantly now on very little volume. The outlook for nuclear fuel has never been more bullish and the supply side never more constrained. We know the Kazakh-China contracts from November were signed at $85/lb. We also know NXE contracts were signed with $135/lb ceilings. We expect term prices to continue to strengthen in 2025
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Enriched #uranium +325% since war vs spot +61%. Downstream prices show where U3O8 is going
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URANIUM SPOT PRICE R.I.P (1987-2025) ⚰️ The spot price in #uranium is increasingly seen as irrelevant by @OceanWall2  CGN Mining's new offtake framework for 2026–2028 signals a decisive move away from traditional market signals, locking in fixed prices starting at $94.22/lb in 2026 and rising 4.1% annually to $102.13/lb by 2028, well above today's $80/lb term price. Meanwhile spot prices, completely lacking liquidity, have hovered around $70/lb despite rising demand, nuclear policy tailwinds and tightening long-term supply. This disconnect suggests the spot market no longer reflects true supply and demand but instead tracks liquidity, inventory flows and speculation. As a result, @OceanWall2 believes the spot market is no longer a reliable pricing benchmark for the uranium sector. May sure you read The Hoot
This week in the Hoot, we look at CGN Mining’s landmark 2026–28 offtake structure and why Ocean Wall is calling time on the spot price as the dominant pricing reference in uranium markets. We also discuss Meta’s nuclear mega-deal with Constellation, the $18.7 billion Czech-KHNP agreement that signals nuclear’s re-entry into Europe’s energy mix. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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reuters.com/business/energy/… I met with these guys at the FT conference in Lausanne earlier this year. This is a serious foray by them and reminds me when, at Deutsche, we started trading #uranium futures on Comex in 2006. It was us, the financial players, ahead of the utilities that really drove the uranium price 7x higher in six months.
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China uranium grab poses threat to western energy supply, warns Yellow Cake on.ft.com/46Wi83c “if Russia were to cut #uranium fuel supplies to the west, then utilities would face disruption in the five years that it would take to build a supply chain independent of Moscow.”
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New dimension emerging in #uranium and one we have discussed in our @oceanwall2 transport report oceanwall.com/wp-content/upl… The fact Macron took Orano mgmt to Kazakhstan underscores the importance of uranium on this visit. The new dimension is the risk Macron made last year siding with Armenia. Last month Azerbaijan blamed Macron for sabotaging potential peace talks with Armenia following its lightning offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh. The only Western way out for uranium from Kazakhstan (ignoring Russia, Iran or China) is Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan know they have the whip hand as the *only* route now for the West. Any raising of the rhetorical temperature by Macron or President Aliyev could lead Azerbaijan to enact a uranium transport embargo to the West. France is now desperate as supplies from Niger remain disrupted (Niger had supplied as much as 20% of France's uranium). This is a new theatre to watch for the inexorable upward movement of uranium.
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Published at midnight the UK government has announced a £300m #uranium investment programme into HALEU development with explicit aim of preventing Putin holding the West “to ransom.” gov.uk/government/news/uk-in… Anecdotally interesting that uranium has now gravitated from bylines in financial press to the main section of newspapers. Page 2 of today’s Sunday Times.
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on.ft.com/4lYOqC4 Uranium shortfall threatens nuclear energy renaissance, industry warned Nuclear power is booming, but #uranium supply is set to fall sharply just as demand surges, threatening a major crunch. The industry must rapidly secure new mines, investment, and enrichment capacity to keep the nuclear revival alive.
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The mood at the WNA is clear: AI has made nuclear urgent. Fermi’s vision of private grids gave voice to what many were thinking: capital, speed, and execution now matter more than licences and feasibility studies. Delegates left with a sense that the bottleneck is no longer political acceptance but physical delivery. Supply chains, capital stacks, access to #uranium and offtake structures will now define winners and losers. WNA 2025 confirmed it: the AI era has pulled nuclear firmly into the critical path.
🚨Flash Note🚨 Microsoft, Fermi & WNA Symposium 2025 #nuclearsympo open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Askar Batyrbayev has been sentenced to 4.5yrs in prison. Many of us know him from his time as CCO of Kazatomprom.  His crime - damaging the Kazakhstan state via #uranium deals with the West.  In 2016 14% of Kazakh uranium went to Russia. In 2023 it was 45%.  In 2023 over 80% of all Kazakh uranium went to China and Russia combined.  Assume numbers for 2024 and 1H 25 will be larger. For the last four years we have said uranium was bifurcating along the lines of East and West.  Going forward @oceanwall2 will now use the past tense - bifurcated.
"Former Kazatomprom top manager sentenced to 4.5 years in prison for deals detrimental to the state"
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A perfect storm brewing in #uranium
We expect the new KAP sulphuric acid facility to be delayed further to 2028-2029 (initial projection 2026). Why does this matter? Because without acid, Budenovskoye can not ramp up to full production...without Budenovskoye, Kazakh production does not meaningful increase...and also, the first three years of production will be locked up in contracts with Russia anyways. So...maybe the West see meaningful volumes of #uranium from Budenovskoye in 2034-2035...just before Cigar Lake mine life ends. Now try QUADRUPLING nuclear capacity without fuel. Either we see SIGNIFICANTLY higher prices that incentivise SIGNIFICANT new production, or Western dreams of a nuclear future will remain just that. A perfect storm is brewing in nuclear fuel markets... inbusiness.kz/ru/news/krupny…
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ASP Isotopes $ASPI is on the cusp of an extraordinary breakout, uniquely positioned at the intersection of multiple global megatrends. Under the visionary leadership of CEO Paul Mann, the company is rapidly transforming into a powerhouse with four distinct, high-growth verticals, each a category leader in its own right. The QLE division is primed for a blockbuster spin-off following the landmark $3.75 billion, 10-year deal with TerraPower, which alone could deliver $187.5 million of EBITDA annually. With HALEU partnerships already underway in South Africa and two other countries, and growing demand from SMR developers globally, QLE could become the dominant name in next-gen $uranium fuel. Meanwhile, ASPI’s isotope business is a sleeping giant, with plants already producing Silicon 28, Ytterbium 176, and Carbon 14, critical inputs for semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, oncology, and medical imaging. These three alone could generate over $100 million in high-margin revenue, and the pipeline of high ASP isotope targets like Helium 3 and Germanium 72 signals even more upside. ASPI’s acquisition of Renergen catapults it into a commanding position in the global helium market, with arguably the highest grade helium asset on earth, 10x the global average, and obtained at a steep discount to its NPV. With helium prices surging over 150 percent and the market set to more than double from $16 billion, ASPI is perfectly placed to monetise this critical, irreplaceable input for industries ranging from semiconductors to space. Renergen brings major synergies in revenue, cost efficiency, and infrastructure, creating a vertically integrated, margin expanding helium powerhouse. On the radio pharmacy front, Pet Labs stands as a global leader and low cost producer, expanding across new geographies while benefiting from precision integration with ASPI’s isotope capabilities. Add it all up, and you’re looking at a business with a realistic path to over *$6 billion* in value by 2030, even before accounting for upside from growth, higher margins, or new isotopes. ASPI is not just a multi bagger opportunity, it’s a platform for a generational re rating.
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Our @oceanwall2 transport thesis laid out in tmrw’s Sunday @Telegraph “Scramble for #uranium on new nuclear Silk Road”
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#Uranium markets are undergoing a notable shift, with utilities—not traders—now driving the latest price rally, marking a significant departure from the speculative cycles of recent years. Spot prices have steadily risen from ~$64.50/lb in late March to ~$70/lb by mid-May, as utilities show growing urgency and preference for near-term deliveries, particularly into late 2025. This signals a deeper awareness of the looming supply shortfall—estimated at over 1 billion pounds over the next decade—and a potential shift in strategy as utilities begin reacting to tightening market fundamentals.
This week in The Hoot, we look at the shift in sentiment in the market and how uranium and nuclear equities have recovered. After a challenging start to the year, uranium prices have bounced back, driven by tighter supply, stronger utility demand, and renewed confidence in nuclear as a critical part of the global energy transition. Uranium equities like URNM, Cameco, and Lightbridge have all posted impressive gains, recovering from their March lows, with some stocks up over 20% in recent weeks. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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This clearly shows the bifurcation of spot and term U308 prices started in May last year as #uranium spot market ceased to have proper liquidity
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$YCA a 20% discount to NAV implying spot #uranium of $76.52 lb
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#Uranium prices could power on after largest producer warns on supply, say investors on.ft.com/3HnFHaJ
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Worth pondering on this from the WNA report at the weekend…. World nuclear capacity is 398 GWe today, rising to 449 GWe in 2030 and 746 GWe in 2040 base case, or 492 and 966 GWe in the bull case with SMRs. #Uranium demand was 67 kt in 2024, doubling to 86–98 kt by 2030 and 150–204 kt by 2040. Supply was 60 kt in 2024 (+22% vs 2022) but existing mines are set to halve output, while secondary supply and UF₆ stocks dwindle. Without significant investment, deep deficits loom, setting up the potential for record uranium prices in the coming super-cycle.
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⚡ uranium move ⚡ • Cameco cuts production → upstream #uranium names all strong • CCJ cuts tighten an already constrained market, bullish for uranium spot into WNA Symposium next week • September has historically been a catalyst: +50% (2021), +11% (2022), +26% (2023) • OWL upstream top picks: UEC, Skyharbour, and now Peninsula (PEN AU) - freshly recapitalised, US restart in 2025, trades at 51% discount @oceanwall2 The Hoot looks at the strong setup into September
Cameco jolts the market with fresh supply cuts just as the nuclear industry converges on London for the WNA Symposium, historically a catalyst for uranium price momentum. thehoot731.substack.com/p/cu…
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In @oceanwall2 The Hoot this week KHNP’s new 9Mlb #uranium RFP (2027–2036) sets a $65 floor and $101 cap, far below today’s contracting reality. Tier 1 producers are locked up, post 2026 pounds are scarce, and static caps are a non starter. This could be KHNP’s second failed tender in two years, forcing them back at higher prices. The uranium market is no longer utility led, late movers will pay up or miss out.
This week in the Hoot: KHNP’s latest uranium tender falls flat—again—exposing the deep disconnect between legacy utility procurement strategies and today’s tight, producer-driven market. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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$ASPI appoint Global Nuclear Security Partners to provide nuclear security and safeguards advisory services in support of their UK operations. #uranium
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Excellent @MacroVoices interview @ErikSTownend conducts with Guy Keller who runs @TribecaIP Nuclear Energy Opportunities Fund discussing @oceanwall2 work on the disconnect in #uranium fuel prices. macrovoices.com/1390-macrovo… Interesting observation on the fragility of the fuel cycle that for utilities the contracting time from mine mouth to fuel rod is now 36months from 24months. This corroborates the 500% rally in EUP this last two years. Pressure on downstream showing where upstream oxide prices are going.
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#uranium at $53.88lb puts $YCA at its widest discount since June 2020 at 15.17%
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Enclosed is our updated #uranium thesis for March to include geopolitical events and more on enrichment oceanwall.com/wp-content/upl…
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This week's @oceanwall2 The Hoot looks at uranium’s contango ending this week as spot prices surged from $78.05/lb to $83.80/lb, moving above term prices and creating backwardation. This shift signals tightening supply and renewed bullish sentiment around nuclear. Investor enthusiasm spans the fuel cycle, with the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF up 21% in a month and Oklo, a small modular reactor developer, up 60%. Nuclear is increasingly framed as a solution to energy-intensive AI demand, while front-end supply bottlenecks create compelling opportunities. The rally began on reports of potential US #uranium reserve additions, then strengthened as Mercuria entered uranium trading, drawing parallels with the 2007 supercycle. This week, further gains were driven by sequester activity and direct utility buying. With fundamentals strong, sentiment elevated, and financial institutions, utilities, and carbon sequesters all active, uranium appears set for a sustained bull phase under what looks like a perfect storm for the sector.
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Biggest up day I have ever seen in #uranium incl. some of the crazy sessions in 2006/7. Key will be how physical trades with $SPUT at a premium. Agree with @quakes99 we get north of $50 by Friday. Interesting that despite +11% move in $YCA still a 10% discount to NAV due to USD
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This week in @oceanwall2 The Hoot Nuclear just found its swagger. From Microsoft’s watershed entry into the fuel cycle to Fermi America’s audacious plan for the world’s largest private grid, the 50th WNA Symposium in London was less talk-shop and more mobilisation. AI urgency, bipartisan U.S. backing, and capital flows converged into the most bullish sentiment the sector has seen in decades. Cameco calls it the “best market ever,” Holtec proved reactors can rise from the dead, and SPUT doubled down as #uranjum supply tightens. Contracts are being signed, grids reimagined, and the old question of “why nuclear?” has finally been retired - the only one left is: how fast can we build?
Our last note from an eventful WNA Symposium 2025 #nuclearsympo “The old question of “why nuclear?” has finally been retired. The only question left, voiced in every corridor and pub across London this week, is: how fast can we build? “ open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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ASP Isotopes $ASPI just graduated to commercial stage. From R&D to delivery, now a 170-person team confident enough to guide revenues. First shipments of Ytterbium-176 & Silicon-28 confirmed today, unlocking tens of millions as production scales. South Africa’s PET Labs is strengthening as a radioisotope hub. Demand is rising for Gadolinium-160, Xenon-129 & Silver-107 — Quantum Enrichment favours faster builds & fatter margins. 
At Renergen, 7 rigs are running with Kinley. Phase 1C (c $20m revenue) targeted early ’26, with Phase 2 & a Sproule resource update to follow.
Concept to Cash Flows - ASP Isotopes Graduates to Commercial Status $ASPI open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Completely free virtual conference of all @oceanwall2 views of #uranium and nuclear value chain with buy side and CEOs. Tell Ben and team if interested and if enough demand they will put it on
Ocean Wall #Nuclear Conference Who would be interested in a FREE virtual conference going over investment opportunities in the entire nuclear value chain? We would end the day with a panel of institutional portfolio managers to get insight into how the buy side looks at investing in nuclear… We would cover: Power Generation #Uranium Mining Conversion & Enrichment Nuclear Waste Speak to the Portfolio Managers Yes or no?
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The fundamentals for the #uranium trade have changed, in that they are stronger than at any time in history. Supply chain disruptions continue to create bottlenecks, affecting every tangible delivery business globally, while nuclear power is making headlines on a near daily basis
Ocean Wall’s ion-U #uranium update
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The offbeat markets that offered bumper returns in 2023 on.ft.com/41C6VUm #uranium
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😂 this is a multi-generational wealth creating trade. #uranium is >4x from 2020 and supply response??? Supply has gone down. And will continue to go down as Kazakhstan moves away from the West. As I continually say *have duration* Unlevered patient capital always wins
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“(the) weakest link in the nuclear supply chain is enriched fuel” #uranium The US plan to break Russia’s grip on nuclear fuel on.ft.com/3OaLTa5
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Replying to @capnek123
Ben will if you email him directly @capnek123
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@oceanwall2 arranged this transaction and are leading the international side $ASPI
ASP Isotopes' uranium-enriching arm is offering convertible notes in a deal that has drawn the backing of investors including Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Replying to @JekyllCapital
Art @JekyllCapital sadly it is not just #uranium twitter folk that would like to hear why you posted on $ASPI what you did. Please illuminate for the wider investment community as many would be keen to hear your thesis.
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Ben and Alex @oceanwall2 had a look into the historic spot price spread between Cameco, ConverDyn and Orano after @AmirAdnani highlighted the $2.50 #uranium difference yesterday.   Historically there has been very little variance between the three quoted prices. However after Trump first mentioned the tariffs on Canada in late November, ConverDyn’s spot price has traded at a premium for 39 of the 50 days since.   After the White House confirmed the Tariffs last Friday, the spread widened to 3.6%. This is the widest it has been according to the available data from UxC going back to 2021.
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So what now after the US House Passes The Prohibiting Russian #Uranium Imports Act? A companion bill must now be considered and passed in the US Senate before the legislation can be signed into law by President Biden. This ban now makes the Nuclear Fuel Security Act all that more urgent (and certain of passage). Then timelime is now down to process as there is bipartisan support for both. Senate now needs to act on the ban and the NDAA needs to make its way to the floors of both chambers for final vote - then to Biden Hard to handicap Congressional process the votes now exist. We are running out of legislative days before Christmas but this will be before year end but may slip into the new year. Remember Russia supplied nearly one-quarter of enriched uranium used to fuel the USA's commercial nuclear reactor fleet last year, according to the US Department of Energy. Uranium popped to $85 after hours and Silex closed +8% in Australia.
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As Yellow Cake $YCA hits it all time high today it is worth remembering it is still on an 8.5% discount to NAV which means you are buying #uranium for $53.5 lb vs spot price $58.49
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This week’s @oceanwall2 The Hoot America’s nuclear momentum shifts into overdrive as the DOE unveils its fast-track Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program and $ASPI - Fermi America sign a landmark enrichment MOU. We break down the policy wins, the capital pouring into SMRs, and the bullish signals from record-high nuclear equities - alongside the widening gap between ambitious build-out plans and domestic #uranium production.
This week in The Hoot: US nuclear momentum surges as the DOE launches its fast-track reactor pilot, QLE–Fermi sign a landmark enrichment deal, SMR developers chase $500mn via SPACs, and defence, data-centre, and fuel-cycle projects accelerate across the country. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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The #uranium spot remains at $58.48 lb yet $YCA traded down 3.77% today. This as another buying opportunity, with the company trading at a significant discount to NAV of 15.03%. Thesis oceanwall.com/wp-content/upl…
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Replying to @Nick_Wellings
The reality was Cigar Lake wasn’t even on line when it flooded. It was to represent 10% of global #uranium supply in 2007. Unlike today where we have an annual >65m lb shortfall vs demand there was a 73m lb surfeit in 2006.
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Main takeaways were the low level of US #uranium inventories, the dislocation in the transportation network as the world moves around Russia and the evident supply gaps.
Ocean Wall #uranium update. We were fortunate enough to attend the #WNFC today. See our curated notes below:
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$YCA yday took delivery of 950,000lb of #uranium from $KAP to the $CCO storage facility in Canada. It also publ. it’s NAV of 433p based on 18.81m lb valued at a spot of US$50.50/lb. $YCA trading at 25% discount to NAV with U prices rising and the Kazakh concerns finally removed.
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As energy demand accelerates, the nuclear sector is grappling with a deepening #uranium deficit. This week in @oceanwall2 The Hoot we examine the fragile US restart pipeline, the slow return of supply, and why even small-scale additions are becoming pivotal. Paladin Energy headlines Market Watch with a record quarter at Langer Heinrich and globally, we track Japan’s first post-Fukushima reactor move, India’s 100 GW ambition, and the UK’s final green light for Sizewell C.
As energy demand accelerates, the nuclear sector is grappling with a deepening uranium deficit. This week, we examine the fragile US restart pipeline, the slow return of supply, and why even small-scale additions are becoming pivotal. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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The @oceanwall2 Nuclear Fuel Chain Index #uranium
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This week’s @oceanwall2 The Hoot is free for all. The sharp pull-back in #uranium reflects profit-taking after one of the sector’s strongest runs in years. But beneath the short-term volatility, the story hasn’t changed. As we explore iWestern supply remains tight, policy momentum is accelerating, and the fundamental drivers behind this cycle are more intact than ever.
Uranium goes Critical ☢️ The Hoot this week is free for all to read! We cover the latest developments as the US is placing its biggest energy bet in decades on nuclear open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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For too long there has been a growing disconnect between the US' nuclear ambition, and the disregard for the fuel needed to achieve it. This is why the news out of the US is so significant. It addresses the fact you cannot double, triple, quadruple nuclear capacity without fuel, especially when you only produce 1% of your requirements domestically. It will be near term demand that will drive prices to $150+ and we may have just seen the most indisputable signal from the US government that their ambition is to build new nuclear, and build it soon. This is what will reshape the demand side of the equation for nuclear fuel. Near term demand. Imagine a world where all of these nations proclaiming their nuclear ambitions actually start to build nuclear at the pace of China. This could now be a reality in the US with by stripping unnecessary bureaucracy out of the NRC, building new nuclear on pre-licensed military sites, and a call to subsidize nuclear projects with government funding. This is an important day for nuclear power in the US, and an example for the rest to follow.
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Was surprised that a man of his standing in our community would join what has now become a ‘pile on’ of such turpitude that it will be taken further. He naturally has his reasons so be keen on hear them. @oceanwall2 have done collectively six trips to see $ASPI facilities in SA and will stand by all our work.
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In this week’s @oceanwall2 The Hoot - momentum in the nuclear fuel cycle shows no sign of slowing. In the U.S., policy support is gathering pace as the Energy Secretary calls for a stronger #uranium reserve, sending producers higher and highlighting America’s determination to secure its supply chain. Across the Atlantic, a new partnership is set to slash licensing timelines and remove Russian fuel from the equation - a structural reset that could transform capital flows into advanced nuclear projects.
Momentum in the nuclear fuel cycle shows no sign of slowing. In the U.S., policy support is gathering pace as the Energy Secretary calls for a stronger uranium reserve, sending producers higher and highlighting America’s determination to secure its supply chain. Across the Atlantic, a new partnership is set to slash licensing timelines and remove Russian fuel from the equation — a structural reset that could transform capital flows into advanced nuclear projects open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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For all of us working with Fermi America this was a landmark $13.8bn Nasdaq listing - a milestone that not only underscores investor confidence in the company’s growth trajectory but also highlights the continued appetite for transformative businesses coming to public markets. For investors, this is a strong signal of capital market resilience and the opportunity for exposure to innovation at scale. @oceanwall2  presence reflects the importance of strategic advisory and cross-border capital partnerships in unlocking value for both companies and shareholders.
Yesterday, Ocean Wall Ltd CEO Nick Lawson was with the Fermi America Team celebrating the monumental $13.8bn listing on the Nasdaq
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Yellow Cake $YCA, which despite rallying 28% MTD is still trading at a 10.42% discount to NAV #uranium
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💯 agree @surfsk8sno More importantly for the sequesters they can capture over 20% value between their implied price and the contango in the market. Via a simple Loan Agreement with Collateral followed by a Forward Purchase Agreement they can lock in that arbitrage. Both $YCA and $SPUT would rally as it would show financial discipline as well as ambition in the face of contango. It would also give belief in the integrity of both #uranium spot and term market.
Replying to @lawse @oceanwall2
Why don’t funds or traders buy up cheap spot lbs and sell a long term contract for a premium? Arbitrage
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Q: Should we view the $ASPI deal as speculative — meaning we're open to options that get us Haleu earlier than 2030 — or do you really believe they can build capacity by then? A: I think that'll be the fastest source. We've done due diligence there. They have the technical capabilities. They have a government lab there, Necsa [the Nuclear Energy Corp. of South Africa]. Necsa and the energy minister are both supportive of South Africa enriching #uranium again, and importantly they have full IAEA protocols in place there because enrichment is a sensitive technology. We're excited about that agreement for two reasons. One is it helped us solve this schedule issue on our first core for Natrium. But beyond that, Bill created the company to bring nuclear energy to places like Africa. So to be working in South Africa, and have our first activity in Africa with a very knowledgeable nuclear nation like South Africa, you can really see how South Africa is just our first step toward eventually deploying Natrium reactors in Africa.
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A incredibly busy @oceanwall2 The Hoot this week. Washington’s $80 billion Westinghouse deal marks a historic push to rebuild America’s nuclear base, just as Big Tech’s $400 billion AI-power boom makes firm energy the new frontier. NextEra’s clean-power pact with Google underscores the fusion of AI and nuclear, while Yellow Cake’s raise and SPUT’s #uranium buying power tighten supply. With Illinois lifting its nuclear-build ban and Premier American Uranium advancing its Cebolleta PEA, momentum across the atomic economy is accelerating fast.
This week in The Hoot: Washington’s $80 billion Westinghouse deal marks a historic push to rebuild America’s nuclear base, just as Big Tech’s $400 billion AI-power boom makes firm energy the new frontier. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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open.substack.com/pub/thehoo… Geiger Counter - The Investment Trust built for the #Uranium Bull Market $GCL Published just now from @oceanwall2
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Ever wonder how a fuel buyer thinks about #uranium procurement? @MerrynSW Merryn Talks Money on @business allowed me to go head to head with the (brilliant) Blue Energy CEO Jake Jurewicz (previous Exelon employee). Worth a listen
Ever wonder how a fuel buyer thinks about uranium procurement? Listen to this podcast with Ocean Wall CEO Nick Lawson (@lawse) going head to head with Blue Energy CEO Jake Jurewicz (previous Exelon employee) on Bloomberg’s Merryn Talks Money podcast. open.spotify.com/episode/4c5…
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This call Ben @oceanwall2 and I did today is a good walk through of our #uranium thesis drawing on geology, chemistry, economics and political risk. We also include our top 5 stock picks.
👀 #Nuclear #Uranium #smr 💥 📺 @lawse @oceanwall2 Uranium’s Parabolic Setup: Nick Lawson & Ben Finegold on the Generationa... piped.video/G79tOPkHsc0?si=HtFj… via @YouTube
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As $YCA goes through it’s all time high it still can’t catch up with #uranium spot and trades at an 8% discount. This is the equivalent of paying $57.45 lb spot
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On Monday the Department of Energy issued a stark warning: The number of blackouts could increase by 100 times if the US continues to shutter reliable power sources and fails to add additional firm capacity. @oceanwall2 report is timely. The AI energy nexus is in full effect, and if the US wants to lead in AI innovation it must have the physical infrastructure to support its energy intense compute ambitions. The US may have the edge in chips and compute currently, but China is not far behind and it has spent the last decade building out its energy infrastructure at an unprecedented rate. #nuclear #uranium
This week in the Hoot: The lights are flickering—and not just metaphorically. As AI pushes global power demand into overdrive, this issue dives into the “Baseload Bottleneck” and why firm, around-the-clock energy is no longer optional. From the DOE’s blackout warning to Spain’s grid collapse and China’s nuclear charge, we unpack the geopolitical, technological, and economic stakes of failing to match AI-scale compute with AI-scale energy. We also examine the new tariffs on Kazakhstan and Canada—and why uranium may be next, as Trump’s move on copper looks increasingly like a preview of what’s to come. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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@oceanwall2 will be on the ground all week at the WNA Symposium in London, delivering exclusive insights, updates, and key takeaways direct from the event floor. Coverage will be available only to subscribers of The Hoot, so be sure to subscribe. Expect daily updates, interviews, and highlights from one of the most important gatherings in the #nuclear #uranium and the energy sector.
Live from London 🇬🇧: We’re covering the WNA Symposium all week — exclusive insights only on The Hoot. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Yellow Cake $yca announces $3m buyback and commentary “….geopolitical events have not had any impact ….while both demand and supply side fundamentals around the outlook for #uranium remain compelling.” This should help close the 8% discount to 462p NAV.
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Replying to @joannajosh
Your observation is pertinent and the comments are correct @joannajosh There is no #uranium for new sequesters to sequest. And amazingly the one there is, $YCA currently trades on a >16% discount to NAV. This is implying $77.21 lbs spot.
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Replying to @oceanwall2
Key Highlights: Strategic Loan Agreement - TerraPower will provide a term loan to partially fund the construction of a first-of-its-kind HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) enrichment facility in South Africa. ASPI is currently in discussions with financial institutions for the remaining non-dilutive financing, protecting current shareholder value. Long-Term Supply Agreement - A 10-year contract has been signed for 150 metric tonnes of HALEU, with deliveries set to begin in 2028 and continue through 2037. The new enrichment facility, located at Pelindaba, is designed to produce up to 15 MTU annually, with production slated to begin in 2027, pending regulatory approvals. Future U.S. Expansion Potential - TerraPower and ASPI will also explore collaboration opportunities to establish domestic uranium enrichment capabilities in the United States, tapping into ASPI’s innovative technologies in a new geography.
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This week’s @oceanwall2 The Hoot we examine how Washington’s stake in Trilogy Metals marks a shift from “critical” to “near-critical” minerals, a group that now includes #uranium. We also explore how a weakening fiat base is driving a revaluation of real assets, with gold and bitcoin breaking higher as investors hedge against policy decay. In this landscape, uranium, scarce, strategic, and vital to productive energy, may be the most mispriced real asset of the decade.
The U.S. expands its metals mandate. We look at how its stake in Trilogy Metals points toward “near critical” minerals like uranium — and why uranium may be the most mispriced real asset of the decade. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Congratulations to @ASPIsotopes on the successful placing of >$20m into the Quantum Leap Energy (QLE) Convertible Note. QLE aim to apply their Quantum Enrichment technology to uranium to address the growing need for HALEU for next-generation reactors. ir.aspisotopes.com/news-even…
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Interestingly, despite the recent rally in #uranium equity prices, the recent weakness in GBPUSD has made Yellow Cake more attractive. See the snapshot from my model below. With cable at 1.33 $YCA is now only at a 2% premium to NAV - its lowest premium since the summer.
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This week @oceanwall2 The Hoot looks at President Trump’s moves to radically reshape the regulatory landscape. How will the set the stage for a new era of reactor construction and domestic fuel production #uranium
This week in The Hoot, we track a historic shift in U.S. nuclear energy policy as President Trump moves to radically reshape the regulatory landscape, potentially setting the stage for a new era of reactor construction and domestic fuel production. Alongside this, ASP Isotopes secures a transformative agreement with TerraPower, Kazakhstan takes decisive steps to nationalize its uranium sector, and Goldman Sachs publishes a major investment thesis positioning nuclear as central to the global energy transition. From near-term demand catalysts to geopolitical realignment in uranium markets, this edition captures the inflection points shaping the future of the nuclear fuel cycle. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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Since the start of 2022, over $5bn (14%) has been wiped off the market caps of global #uranium related equities, whilst the uranium spot price is still +19% over the same time period.  In this edition of @oceanwall2 ion-U we examine the reasons behind this 33% decoupling.
Ocean Wall’s ion U - #uranium market update
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With GBPUSD at 1.08 and $YCA closing at 376p you are buying #uranium at $39.16lb - a 20% discount.
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Replying to @JekyllCapital
The response you have received is purely a function of you opining on something you know little about. The red flags you now ignore are to now pass the responsibility to the people that question you. What is “getting sad”….that people ask you to justify what you comment on….a stock that they are owners of? A stock that has fallen because of a short attack? Sadly Art you have been part of something that will have consequences. You are a voice in the industry and by dint have a fiduciary responsibility to uphold integrity and fairness. You made a mistake and that can be understood if you accept culpability. Drop the hyperbole and admit you know nothing about which you have pontificated.
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After a raft of checks our #uranium transport report is out. I think this is a genuinely new insight into the much reported but poorly understood pinch points for Class 7 transit in the Caucasus. It reinforces the very strong buy on the physical and the uranium equites complex.
#Uranium and its New Silk Road - Further Problems for Western Buyers In our latest report, we discuss potential supply issues arising for #Kazakh produced #uranium reaching western buyers as a result of increased sanctions against #Russia. linkedin.com/posts/ocean-wal…
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Full room at the #uranium session at @WorldNuclear Symposium. Well balanced debate about security, sustainability and importance of supply post Russian invasion.
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We’ve just shared our latest @oceanwall2 The Hoot with a note on Holtec. Holtec is a cash-generative vertically integrated #nuclear powerhouse, leading the US SMR rollout with real revenues, proven technology, and global scale. Global pipeline, Hyundai partnership, and a $10bn+ IPO lined up for 2026.
This week in the Hoot: Holtec dominates the spotlight as it redefines what it means to be a nuclear energy leader. We also look at Orano’s challenges in Niger, and the shifting geopolitical and regulatory environment shaping the global nuclear renaissance. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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The future of sell side research is here! See our investment thesis on @ASPIsotopes on the link below. app.curationconnect.com/comp…
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This week in @oceanwall2 The Hoot: Cameco takes centre stage with a strong message on supply discipline, strategic patience, and the growing promise of Westinghouse’s AP1000 reactors in the US and Europe. KAP delivered a steady ops update, Boss Energy stumbled on guidance despite solid FY25 delivery, and Yellow Cake’s NAV rose with #uranium’s price volatility. Skyharbour expanded its Athabasca footprint, Lightbridge hit a key #nuclear fuel milestone, and Fermi America partnered with Hyundai on an 11 GW private AI grid. Plus, global policy shifts, project pipelines, and corporate moves all inside.
This week in The Hoot, Cameco takes centre stage with a resolute message on supply discipline, strategic patience, and the expanding promise of Westinghouse—highlighting AP1000 demand and a transformative approach to reactor deployment in the U.S. and Europe. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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This week @oceanwall2 The Hoot looks at how India’s nuclear pivot rests on #uranium supply. Between 2025 and 2033, it plans to import 19.8m lbs, nearly four times the prior five years, to fuel new reactors. Securing flows from Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia is essential. From 8.9 GW today to 22.5 GW by 2032 and 100 GW by mid-century, nuclear will shift from marginal to material in India’s power mix. Yet growth depends on access to a tightening global fuel chain, where enrichment, fabrication and specialist suppliers may prove the real bottleneck.
India’s nuclear ambitions are no longer a distant aspiration, they’re accelerating into a defining pillar of the country’s energy future. Modi has placed nuclear power at the centre of his decarbonisation and industrialisation strategy, targeting a threefold increase in capacity by 2032 and a tenfold jump by mid-century. This week on the Hoot, we unpack Modi’s vision, the scale of India’s build-out, and what it means for uranium markets. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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$YCA at 11.28% discount code to NAV #uranium
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@oceanwall2 The Hoot just released. Fresh EIA data confirms U.S. reactors are running stronger for longer, just as the Army’s Janus microreactor programme brings defence into the #nuclear fold. Paladin’s update from Patterson Lake South reinforced its Tier-1 credentials, while Geiger Counter’s NexGen stake surged after a C$950 million raise. And in markets, #uranium and nuclear equities rallied once more on the wave of massive AI-driven investment, underscoring, yet again, that nuclear power is emerging as the true energy backbone of the compute era.
EIA Data Underscores Depth of US Uranium Import Dependence open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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The recent strong dollar rally vs GBP coupled with the 4% rise this week in spot #uranium has been set against a equity market sell off that has inextrictably caught $YCA (-4% this week). The YCA discount to NAV is now at 15% which is where traditionally it rapidly tightens.
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This is @oceanwall2 listening to retail #uranium investors and putting together 1000s of hours of nuclear fuel cycle research in a comprehensive, accessible and digestible format. A chance to see what the apex predators see…
The Hoot by Ocean Wall Jargon-free and curated insights for #uranium and #nuclear investors ⚛️ Our weekly newsletters will be posted every Friday, starting tomorrow. Subscribe below! thehoot731.substack.com/
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Replying to @Jaro_rogue
Superb @Jaro_rogue - a comprehensive and detailed rebuttal $aspi
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“Even though there are no sanctions against Russian [nuclear] fuel at this point…what is being called ‘self-sanctioning’ which is saying as quickly as I can I’m going to move away from Russian sourced fuel.” #uranium
Ahead of the WNA Symposium, Ocean Wall CEO, Nick Lawson @lawse, sat down with Andre Liebenberg, CEO of Yellow Cake Plc $YCA, and Dustin Garrow, Managing Principal of Nuclear Fuel Associates, to discuss the ever-changing landscape of the #uranium market: oceanwall.com/uranium-firesi…
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This week’s @oceanwall2 The Hoot looks at Fermi America’s bold move to anchor the U.S. nuclear renaissance in Amarillo, Texas, with Westinghouse’s AP1000 reactors, and what it means for baseload power and AI infrastructure. We also break down Kazatomprom’s 10% production capacity cut and its implications for long-term #uranium prices, analyse September’s seasonal dynamics for spot uranium around the WNA Symposium, and highlight key corporate moves.
This week in the Hoot we look at Fermi America’s bold move to anchor the U.S. nuclear renaissance in Amarillo, Texas, with Westinghouse’s AP1000 reactors, and what it means for baseload power and AI infrastructure. We also break down Kazatomprom’s 10% production capacity cut and its implications for long-term uranium prices. open.substack.com/pub/thehoo…
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