Co-Founder at Verstand Global Macro LLC Macro PM, Brevan Howard & Salomon alumni. Macro & geopolitical commentator. London School of Economics
Miami, FL
- Tweets 34,505
- Following 1,116
- Followers 16,525
- Likes 126,806
India picks a side
@vtchakarova
Deeply shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel. Our thoughts and prayers are with the innocent victims and their families. We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour.
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The Yen carry trade has been inplace for over 20 years. How anybody think that it is unwound in a day or two is ludicrous.
@dampedspring @nickgiva1
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Law and order China style #CCPVirus
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Excellent as always from @jkylebass cnbc.com/video/2020/04/28/ky…
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The art of retreat!
@amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld @BRyvkin @PPGMacro @galietti82 @sono_francesca
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China says UK citizenship pathway for Hong Kong residents violates international law - whose international law does it violate precisely? reut.rs/2WK9eEY
@Jkylebass @amlivemon @BaldingsWorld @gbponz @chigrl @JulianMI2
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This is extraordinary. Nationalisation doesn't pay out too well to existing shareholders!
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @MaajidNawaz @amlivemon @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @TonyNashNerd @JulianMI2 @DiMartinoBooth @dlacalle_IA @MCaruso_Cabrera @CNBCJou @WilfredFrost
ibtimes.sg/A000EA8?utm_sourc…
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The economic advantages sit with Putin and Russia, despite the sanctions. The repercussions will be long lasting, just like the 1973 oil embargo.
intelligencequarterly.com/ec… #Ahead of the Herd #Economy
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#CCPVirus - Amazing!!! Just watch the video interview. China says coronavirus is not their fault and blasts ‘we’re the victim’ thesun.co.uk/news/11628699/c…
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Yesterday I wrote this, in which I suggested that the cost to the West of heavily sanctioning Russia will be far far greater than anybody realizes.
intelligencequarterly.com/ah…
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Bye bye cryptos!!! Anybody thinking central banks & govts will give up the monopoly of money to characters of dubious intent, well...
@amlivemon @chigrl @gbponz
telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
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OK, Xi wins. This is the latest news:
Li Keqiang, Li Zhanshu, Han Zheng & Wang Yang, all reformist & liberal CCP figures, are out of new CCP Central Committee.
#HuJintao name gone from govt website.
@Halsrethink @Jkylebass @BaldingsWorld @SariArhoHavren @afneil @MPIainDS @BRyvkin
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An interesting thought! #CCPVirus
@Halsrethink @Jkylebass @amlivemon @chigrl @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @vtchakarova
EXCLUSSIVE! Elmer Yuan: The real reason for #NationalSecurityLaw #Chinazi wants HK's 400 billion 💵 USD reserves. They ran out of money, they want to steal our reserves. That is the real motive. You @idzpodpradpl @AgainstTideTV will be the first media to report this! @SolomonYue
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If you want to understand what a Labour govt really means for the UK, just follow @afneil - it is not a good outlook
Labour wants the private sector to be its engine of growth.
Labour wants the private sector to invest much more.
Yet The Times reports Labour will jack up private employers’ NICs (public sector employers will be exempt)
And is preparing a raft of new employee rights and regulations.
Baffled as to how you square all this.
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I worry that we are on the verge of some serious cracks in the financial markets:
Stagflation
Food crisis
Liquidity impairment in the foundational US Treasury market, where high volatility leads to increasing illiquidity
intelligencequarterly.com/ah…
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Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says The Very Influential @Halsrethink, along with @nglinsman .
If you are an investor, professional or private, this is a must watch.
Market adjustments mean market opportunities.
Tku @JackFarley96
piped.video/0MCfZCeO8Ac via @YouTube
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We have put together a lists of risks, economic and geopolitical, for 2022.
intelligencequarterly.com/am…
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Competent govt dies when the lights are dimmed to flatter a new administration. When journalists suspend their critical faculties, tragedy is bound to follow.
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld @BRyvkin
unherd.com/2021/08/the-media…
The media enabled Afghanistan's collapse
A gushing press corps made Biden feel invincible
unherd.com 8
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Shanghai has historically been the source of China's civil uprisings. We can but hope. @Halsrethink
@Jkylebass @jgarnaut @GrayConnolly @SariArhoHavren @TheresaAFallon @gbponz @AlessandroPonz4 @nfergus @afneil
What the?? This video taken yesterday in Shanghai, China, by the father of a close friend of mine. She verified its authenticity: People screaming out of their windows after a week of total lockdown, no leaving your apartment for any reason.
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Hollywood has questions to answer, as does the NBA
#CCPVirus
@Jkylebass @amlivemon @BaldingsWorld @gbponz
thetimes.co.uk/article/holly…
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Salio has so much money tied up in China, which he can't get out, he has no choice but to act as a promoter of nonsense. Meanwhile, China is suffering from the middle income trap.
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
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Keep your eyes peeled. Market turmoil always starts where you least expect it
@amlivemon
#Evergrande - China’s and world’s largest RE developer, with $ 15-16bn in offshore debt and more than $300bn in total liability - is on the verge of default and it’s bonds trading at 27c on the dollar. This is not making enough headlines given the systemic risk involved here imho
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The Chinese have brought this suspicion upon themselves to such an extent, the conclusion is merely awaiting proof. CCP threats only serve to confirm that they are hiding the truth.
@Jkylebass @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld
thetimes.co.uk/article/wuhan…
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When the most incompetent rise to the top, then geopolitical relevance sinks to the bottom.
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @michaeltanchum @BRyvkin telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01…
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Merkel's legacy is beginning to look like a disaster - Nord Stream 2, energy policy as a whole, Brexit, sovereign debt crisis, decomommissioninng of German military, Ursula von der Leyen's... Shall I go on?
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@halsrethink and I were invited by the publisher to write the lead article for The International Economy Magazine. It is uniquely published for the top of finance, and represents a direct line to most of the movers and shakers around the world.
international-economy.com/TI…
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The ex-German Defence Minister who was totally responsible for the destruction through neglect of the German military. Doesn't Biden know this?!!! telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…
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Ann excellent piece on why Eastern Ukraine is so attractive to Putin. Basically, Ukraine is a heavyweight in the global agricultural supply chain. But it is not just agriculture... Read on
@Halsrethink @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd
intelligencequarterly.com/eu…
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Betrayed by its own elite, the country is at risk of social unrest. A powerful article here. telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
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This is a Merkel-driven disgrace, ignoring both human rights and democracy for the benefit of Volkswagen and German industry.
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @BaldingsWorld @robert_spalding @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @vtchakarova
A second EU diplomatic source:
"EU Ambassadors have received an update by the European Commission on the current state of play on the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. The Commission reported on recent positive developments in the negotiations with China ...
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I would posit that we are watching the death of "just-in-time" business model, and a rebirth in supply-side economics, or the need for markets to understand it again
@Halsrethink
This is what happens when you take the middle class for granted, and assume there will ALWAYS be demand.
One day the REAL Atlas shrugs and it's all over.
We are watching the death of Supply Side Economics in real-time.
As brutal an end as anyone could imagine.
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Goldman raising its Fed forecast to include a 75bp rate hike in September (vs. 50bp previously) and a 50bp hike in November (vs. 25bp previously). They continue to expect a 25bp hike in December, which would take the funds rate to 3.75-4% by the end of 2022.
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Her is your reason for banning Huawei!!! Do you really just want to give them this data, for which huge resources already go into the hacking thereof?
@jkylebass @robert_spalding @Halsrethink @amlivemon @DukeMarcude @gbponz @BorisJohnson @michaelgove
thetimes.co.uk/article/chine…
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And so it begins - the Chinese exodus from Wall Street, something we have been writing about for months @intelquarterly
@Halsrethink @marykissel @Jkylebass @josephwang @JackFarley96 @chigrl
@PPGMacro @gbponz @SariArhoHavren @AvidCommentator @
*BREAKING* 4 SOEs of China, including PetroChina, China Life Insurance, Sinopec, and Aluminum Corporation of China, have all announced to exit from New York Stock Exchange today.
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The present trashing of the Founding Fathers is an unmistakeable sign of dangerously self-destructive decadence. telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11…
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Well done Bild magazine
China‘s embassy in Berlin wrote me an open letter because they weren‘t too happy with our Corona coverage. I responded.
Full version: facebook.com/663112015/posts…
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Well done Australia... again. Taking the fight to the #CCPVirus. #Anglosphere
@Halsrethink @Jkylebass @robert_spalding @BaldingsWorld @amlivemon @gbponz @vtchakarova @chigrl @JulianMI2 @TonyNashNerd
thetimes.co.uk/article/austr…
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Well done @josephwang Joseph. He nails the dangers inherent in QT
barrons.com/articles/federal… via @BarronsOnline
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CHLOROQUININE
Italians have just approved this drug for people " Doctors say the drug, called favipiravir (branded Avigan), is effective in treating coronavirus infections and dramatically shortens the time a person is sick.
Step 1 but so so late
The British have this
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European gas prices rocket by almost 25% just today and from an already high price!
@chigrl @amlivemon @TonyNashNerd @gbponz
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Netanyahu has a lot to answer for Velina, but let's not conflate the basic problem here. To quote Golda Meir, "if the Palestinians would put down their guns, there would be peace. If the Israelis put down their guns, there would be no Israel"
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Germany attacks UK economic plan as it unveils €200bn energy support - live updates
Hold on a sec - the energy mess in Europe is entirely the fault of the Germans, who should never be given a leadership role again.
@chigrl
telegraph.co.uk/business/202… via @telebusiness
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New Article by ex-New York Times Science Writer Claims Lab Leak Theory Is More Plausible Than Natural Origin Theory
@Jkylebass @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld @galietti82 @petunianelsole @vtchakarova
link.medium.com/JRIx4hbBWfb
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The truth will out.
Shanghai is the new Hong Kong!
@Jkylebass @gbponz @chigrl @BaldingsWorld @SariArhoHavren @SharriMarkson telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…
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A MUST-READ & OPEN ACCESS TO ALL
Liquidity – Leverage, Reserves, Equities
This article from the eminent @PPGMacro, covers one of the most important indicators for risk there is.
intelligencequarterly.com/ma… #Macro Friend
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A MUST READ
We are delighted to have a guest piece from Joseph Wang (@josephwang), who spent 5 year at the FRBNY as a senior trader on the open markets desk. He details the mechanics of the announced QT & looks for a 'great steepening" in the bond market.
intelligencequarterly.com/ma…
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Biden Administration's Nuclear Deal: "This Isn't Obama's Iran Deal. It's Much, Much Worse." gatestoneinstitute.org/18358…
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The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to better mental health, a healthier economy and happier schoolchildren telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…
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The Germans have yet to appreciate that Xi is decoupling China from the West and from its former Deng Xiaoping economic model
German businesses that bet big on China are starting to worry as the two pillars of their economic growth have changed. "Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine forced Germany to wean itself off the gas that provided its industry with cheap power. China’s drive toward self-reliance means a market that once seemed an unending source of growth is not only less assured, but a rival." @ErikaSolomon nytimes.com/2023/07/06/world…
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Chinese bulk carrier pileup -
Dotting the sea off Chinese ports are nearly 500 bulk cargo ships waiting to deliver resources from metal ore to grain into the country.
@man_integrated
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A Ban On Selected Investments Into China Is Imminent. Also, China retaliates - China Puts Spymaster in Charge of US Corporate Crackdown.
BOTH countries are decoupling.
@Halsrethink @UrbanKaoboy @michaelxpettis @Jkylebass @shehzadhqazi @vtchakarova
piped.video/D02TTEmouQw
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Britons want China to face inquiry over coronavirus outbreak
thetimes.co.uk/article/brito…
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JPM moving staff from Germany back to London for fear of electricity blackouts! Or is that just an excuse to relocate back to the UK?
telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
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One indicator out today that suggests a 'no landing' scenario for the US - South Korea's semiconductor exports, which showed the largest gains in years, jumping 42% in November from a year earlier.
@dampedspring @nickgiva1 @super_macro @PPGMacro @biancoresearch @JulianMI2
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China is uninvestable, as evidenced by this decision from Hong Kong
@Jkylebass @SariArhoHavren @georgemagnus1 @michaelxpettis
scmp.com/business/banking-fi…
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In Xi's world, national security is more important that the economy and thus the markets. When will investors understand that China is uninvestable.
"#China plans to roll out a new law that would push patriotic education for internet users, schoolchildren & overseas Chinese"
scmp.com/news/china/politics…
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Ambrose nails it
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld
telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
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An impressive flotilla led by the HMS Queen Elizabeth will make 40 stops in the Indo-Pacific. China is not pleased
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @chigrl @gbponz @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld @galietti82 @petunianelsole @CNBCJou
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion
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Europe braces for coronavirus-induced drug shortages - #decouplesupplychains
@jkylebass @robert_spaling @Halsrethink @amlivemon @DukeMarcude @gbponz
politico.eu/article/europe-b…
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A 393-years old Greenland Shark was located in the Arctic Ocean. It's been wandering the ocean since 1627. It is the oldest living vertebrate known on the planet. This is what happens waiting for the coconut farmer's trade to become profitable
@amlivemon @chigrl @gbponz
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In the case of the Chinese Cultural Revolution, the purging of the past was promoted because it was viewed as essential for the realisation of communism. Wokeness is communism!
@amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld @galietti82
spiked-online.com/2021/04/27…
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Wuhan Health Organistion - this man should be given a 'Henry Longshanks' sendoff!!! telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04…
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Occam’s Razor would suggest that most politicians are merely too stubborn to concede they were wrong in their approach to this pandemic. Not just slightly, but catastrophically.
@amlivemon @chigrl @gbponz @UCastellotti @AlexBerenson @MLevitt_NP2013
telegraph.co.uk/travel/comme…
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The West followed China into lockdown, the merits of which can be argued. Now they are imposing what will become a Western equivalent of China's social credit system.
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @gbponz spectator.co.uk/article/we-n…
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THE WEEK THAT WAS & THE WEEK AHEAD
Our free weekly recap of Ahead of the Herd and a look ahead. A couple of subscribers expressed thanks for the equity buy recommendation of Mar 15, highlighted herein - one said it more than paid for the annual sub.
intelligencequarterly.com/ah…
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Led by a delusional part-time President and a VP who has vanished, America faces an uncertain future
@amlivemon @BRyvkin telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08…
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#China - Total debt relative to GDP now exceeds 250%, up from 140% in 2008, and Charlene Chu, a senior partner at Autonomous Research and an expert on Chinese debt, estimates that 24% of all bank loans will not be repaid thetimes.co.uk/article/irwin…
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Quite extraordinary this. Basically, these companies are 'genocide apologists' #genocideapologists
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld @vtchakarova @MaajidNawaz @robert_spalding
spectator.us/topic/woke-capi…
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This is appalling - the UN is now a China genocide facilitator #CCPVirus #UighurLivesMatter
@Jkylebass @BaldingsWorld @gbponz @vtchakarova @amlivemon @TonyNashNerd @chigrl
Human Rights Lawyer Emma Reilly reveals that the UN is actively sharing the names of Uyghur dissidents with the Chinese Government, telling Maajid Nawaz the actions of the UN here are 'criminal.'
@MaajidNawaz
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Decoupling is a must if there is any hope for human rights
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @BaldingsWorld @TonyNashNerd @gbponz @chigrl @vtchakarova @RobertMCutler
thetimes.co.uk/article/apple…
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By removing @GadSaad's video for the reasons given, you are in effect insulting many Western democracies that require ID for voting, and which require such for the integrity of democracies and democratic rights.
Re-instate please.
@freddiesayers
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There is no doubt that this was justified. Just another way to teach the Chinese Wolf Warriors how to respect sovereign nations.
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld @BRyvkin @galietti82 @petunianelsole
telegraph.co.uk/politics/202…
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Naked attack by the CCP on US investors who just gave capital to this Chinese based company. It’s become clear that under Xi, investing in China has never been riskier.
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd
ft.com/content/809b31e2-6b1e… via @financialtimes
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DRINK FOR DEMOCRACY
Support Australia against China and the #CCPVirus
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @amlivemon @robert_spalding @BaldingsWorld @TonyNashNerd @chigrl @vtchakarova @gbponz @eshow1969 @MaajidNawaz @MPIainDS
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Renault's largest shareholder is the French government. The EU is simply not fit for geopolitical purpose.
Imagine what Poland and the Baltics think now. @Jkylebass
@Halsrethink @gbponz @moutet @nfergus telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
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Why is vaccinated Chile locking down again? Because the Chinese vaccine is absolutely NO GOOD!
@Jkylebass @amlivemon @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld @CNBCJou
spectator.co.uk/article/why-… via @spectator
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So who is going to stand up for the free world? Biden is, to all intents and purposes, missing in action. This is not a great time for the West. But if you are Beijing or Moscow, gosh, is 2021 turning out to be a year of gifts. telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11…
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As @amlivemon keeps saying, & really emphasized in this article, Taiwan is no easy military target. Any mishap, & Xi is finished. Hence, China will be wary of attacking.
@Jkylebass @Halsrethink @gbponz @chigrl @TonyNashNerd @BaldingsWorld @vtchakarova
thetimes.co.uk/article/with-…
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China is uninvestable
"Expert network consulting company GLG is the latest due diligence firm to cut jobs in #China as Beijing intensifies scrutiny of the sector on natl security grounds...The firm also laid off 3.5% of its global workforce & fired its CEO"
ft.com/content/21634591-ed53…
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Something our friends anticipating the end of the USD as reserve currency fail to consider. The implosion of the Chinese economy. @amlivemon @DukeMarcude @gbponz @Halsrethink @chigirl @LukeGromen telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
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China has moved from an autocracy to a police state, according to Nick Glinsman of Malmgren Glinsman Partners
cnb.cx/3BOKLlQ
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I highly recommend this video from @OnTheMarginPod with @dampedspring & @nickgiva1. Not only do I share their views, I also a grey beard, and Salomon Bros and Brevan Howard. Well done chaps. Clarity is a wonderful thing.
piped.video/6XH3QEgf0I8?si=NDa_… via @YouTube
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