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Australia
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In my latest chat with @DFA_Analyst we discuss how almost every group of Australians polled wants a different path, and believes almost anything is better than this.
Along with an analysis on mortgages as a driver of the economy and all the recent news.
piped.video/r_jw7aJZUQY
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That moment in the future when a 15 year old Australian apprentice finishes their 38 hour work week but then can't go home and watch a YouTube video.....
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The top post on Reddit Australia today.
This is what happens when real wages for under 35s go no where for ~20 years and in that time housing prices go to the moon.
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How exactly is the govt going to enforce this?
Are we going to need to have some sort of govt login which cross checks your license, Medicare card or passport against a govt database before you can go on Twitter?
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Centrelink: If you are a couple, we consider you a unit for financial purposes
ATO: If you are a couple, we consider each of you individually for financial purposes
I always thought that was a funny distinction.
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$100 says this becomes a mess of unintended consequences.
The new democratically elected body, named Gellung Warl, will enable Indigenous peoples to be consulted on laws and policies affecting their communities.
Follow live. ebx.sh/s3bSKA
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Should a young Australia couple who are both working full time, who never have a hope of affording the median house in their city pay taxes to fund the pension of a couple with $480k in cash and a $3m house?
Discuss
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'International students not to blame for rising rents, Australian study finds'
"There is no link between international student numbers and the cost of rents"
So additional demand has no impact on prices, right......🤦♂️
abc.net.au/news/2025-03-21/a…
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Does anyone actually genuinely believe either side of Aussie politics will reduce migration to the point where the housing deficit will be resolved?
The more I look at the numbers and underlying state of the economy...It would take courage to face the actual reality of things.
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"Victoria Police say just 5,400 repeat offenders are responsible for 40% of the crime in the state."
What an absolute joke. abc.net.au/news/2025-09-25/v…
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Japan
- Used masks extensively from day 1 (it was an existing part of their culture)
- People obeyed govt directives, far more so than in Europe/US
- The Japanese stayed home as much as possible & schools closed
They have a distinct cultural advantage vs Europe.
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Australia is developing an imbalance between the number of men and women in the 15 to 24 age demographic.
There are now 6.5 more men than women per 100 people in that age demographic.
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"A record 200k overseas students flooded into Australia in February, defying expectations that 18 months of tougher entry rules would dampen demand and help bring migration back to historic norms."
afr.com/politics/federal/ove…
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If falling housing prices would destroy a nation's economy, then it doesn't really have much of a properly functioning economy then anyway, does it.
That is all.
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Midnight thoughts
Dutton is not Trump.
He is 23 year veteran of the existing political class & lacks the charisma and personality required to operate at Trump's level
The main reason the LNP have a shot at power is Albo has been one of the biggest first term trainwrecks ever
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In Q2 1995, Australia completed 40.9k new homes and annual net migration was 80.2k.
In Q2 2025, we completed 40.5k new homes and annual net migration is 316k.
Fewer new homes, almost 4x the level of migration.
This is not in the interests of the Australian people.
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Radar working well on the new Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) website.....
Source: Reddit Australia
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I dont know why this is such a difficult concept for some people to understand.
Freedom of speech and expression works both ways, not just when you agree with what someone else is saying/doing.
Americans are bloody lucky to have a constitutionally enshrined right to free speech
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'JPMorgan is the largest counterparty to the nickel trades of the Chinese tycoon caught in an unprecedented short squeeze'
So it seems the cancelling of trades on the LME was also done to prevent billions in losses for major global banks.... bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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'Former Canberra childcare worker Muhammad Ali sentenced for sexually abusing boy in his care'
"Eligible for parole in 18 months" despite it being the 2nd similar offence
There is f***ed....
abc.net.au/news/2025-10-23/a…
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'Australians will soon need their age checked to log into online search tools'
This just keeps getting worse (new rules announced two days ago)
theconversation.com/australi…
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The year is 1970, you are a 24 year old Baby Boomer living at home looking to marry your sweetheart and get your own home.
A 20% house deposit in Sydney less than 10 months of average earnings. In Melbourne it's slightly under 7 months.
In Sydney, a mortgage at the prevailing benchmark owner occupier mortgage rate consumes 25.6% of average full time male earnings. In Melbourne 17.8%.
But it was always hard though aye....
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This is the most effective piece of political advertising anyone significant in the LNP has produced in years.
If we see a lot more of this, the admitting of past mistakes and sharing aspirations the people hold, Hastie could potentially be competitive.
Andrew Hastie is condemning his own party for letting the Australian car industry die
A king. Make this man leader
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Australia's economic strategy is a utter failure.
And this is what it looks like when its been raining money from the resources sector.
Chart: AFR
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How does the number of jobs in the thermal coal industry compare?
Woolworths 202,000
Coles 112,000
McDonalds 90,000
KFC 34,000
Thermal Coal 29,000
The govt goes on about the number of thermal coal jobs, yet Colonel Sanders employs more people. abc.net.au/news/2019-07-11/f…
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I'm getting real tired of the spurious accusations of racism.
We can't house our own people, we have government agencies admitting that, along with notable experts.
This alone is a travesty, let alone the other impacts of excessive migration.
What is wrong with you people....
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In Shanghai 63% of Japanese owned factories remain idle, with 28% below 30% of normal output.
Meanwhile fences & razor wire are going up in parts of Beijing to keep people in their home & neighborhoods.
This is a disaster for the global economy, it just hasnt been realized yet.
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Ever found more air than chips in your chip packet?
More air, less product, same price. It's called shrinkflation, and it's ripping Australians off.
We’re fixing it, making sure you get good value at the checkout with stronger unit pricing and big penalties for supermarkets doing the wrong thing.
There’s more to do, so we’ll keep working to get you a fair deal at the checkout.
Community note
Unit pricing is already mandatory under the ACCC code since 2010. It does nothing to address high prices, shrinkflation or transparency.
accc.gov.au/business/indus
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This morning I sat down and looked at the ALP and LNP policy platforms side by side.
I don't think I've ever been so uncomfortable to have to make a choice between two political options who will deliberately harm my generations interests in net terms.
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Of all the nations in an analysis by The Economist, Australia directly employs a larger proportion directly through the public sector than any other nation assessed.
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People can take their shots at me, but it is absolutely wild that 0.08% of Victorians commit 40% of the states crime.
That suggests a major available pathway to dramatically reduce crime by addressing a tiny proportion of the populace.
Which we should definetly be exploring.
Victoria's worst criminal reoffenders account for ~40% of the states crime, with one of those 5,400 committing an offence authorities are aware of an average of every 2.7 minutes....
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'Survey of Income and Housing results will not be released'
"This decision means that the following products will not be released in 2025:
- Income and wealth
- Housing Occupancy and costs"
Next update (for 2025) won't be until at least mid-2027.
abs.gov.au/media-centre/medi…
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Remember folks Australia has a housing supply growth problem and it has nothing to do with demand.
Chart: FT
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I didn't realize that the current Aussie immigration minister has 6 houses, the equal 3rd highest in parliament
Graphic: AFR
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'The lucky country has blown the (20-year) boom'
This is what happens when every spare dollar is jammed into the property market at the expense of productive enterprise and govt (red and blue) resolutely refuses normal economic cycles to play out.
afr.com/policy/economy/the-l…
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During a trip to Aldi and Woolies today I was looking at the prices and honestly, it feels like the rate of inflation in the last 4 yrs is something like 4 billion %
I realise in the rational part of my brain it isn't, but God damn it's significantly higher than the CPI for me
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Australia's level of population growth is not at all normal for the developed world.
Chart: @leithvo
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'Older Australians could rent out spare rooms to help ease the housing crisis, new research suggests'
Or we could cut migration to a level consistent with affordable housing and a robust supply of rentals. abc.net.au/news/2024-10-07/a… via @ABCaustralia
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"PM Anthony Albanese has opened a new election battlefront, arguing flexible working makes an “enormous difference” to people’s household budgets and wellbeing."
This is a smart political move.
afr.com/politics/federal/alb…
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"up to four in ten of young people under the age of 16 who've engaged with YouTube have been harmed"
This is exactly the same nonsense terminology being used to prosecute the loss of civil liberties in Britain.
Anthony Albanese today in response to Google's threat to sue the Australian Government if they are included in the under 16 social media ban. He says Julie Inman-Grant, the eSafety commissioner, has made her view clear. "up to four in ten of young people under the age of 16 who've engaged with YouTube have been harmed"...
Sounds to me like that dodgy research eKaren was forced to release under FOI.
He says assessments will be made "independent of any of these threats that are made by social media companies."
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Bob Katter's statement following his firey press conference confirms what I already thought, to him the most important thing is being Australian first and foremost.
It doesn't matter where your from, if your an Aussie that defines you in his eyes.
The somewhat ironic thing is this is the same belief system I was raised with, by my parents and my primary school.
There were kids from all over the world, but the most important thing was that we were all Australians.
I took that lesson to heart and I will be teaching my kids the same thing.
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I always find it funny getting lectured about carbon emissions.
I drive a 15+ year old car, have a 13 year old TV & buy a sizable proportion of my clothing from op shops.
But somehow I'm still told I'm the problem, not the fleet of private jets to Venice for Bezos' wedding.
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Union Minister Goyal says India is chalking out a deal a deal with Australia to build 1m new homes.
"Indian workers will be trained in Australia"
Wow.....Albo has got some explaining to do....
m.economictimes.com/news/ind…
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"It's extremely difficult to be a 30 year in Australia right now"
Source: ABC Australia
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Parody news outlet the Betoota Advocate gets awfully close to inadvertently printing actual news 😂
h/t @ragenut
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"Migration has been unresponsive to Australia’s needs; it has provided marginal economic benefit and has not enhanced labour productivity."
- Assistant Australian Immigration Minister Matt Thistlethwaite
This is an absolutely huge admission
minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/…
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Okay this thing has turned into an ideological Rorschach test.
There are people who genuinely believe adding 375k people to housing demand in an already overheated rental market has zero effect.
Honestly I got nothing....
'International students not to blame for rising rents, Australian study finds'
"There is no link between international student numbers and the cost of rents"
So additional demand has no impact on prices, right......🤦♂️
abc.net.au/news/2025-03-21/a…
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It really does need to be emphasised how badly you need to screw up a migration intake for it to be a net negative for productivity.
You can literally choose the most productive and smartest people in the world who are willing to migrate.
It should be a slam dunk.
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When Australia's young go to the polls (May?), they will have a choice between the current government who threw most of them under the bus.
Or team blue who will use super withdrawals to pump housing prices to new heights.
What a clown world set of options.
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"The report from the Australian National University found only 12% of places in our migration program are going to skilled workers from overseas, with many of the places allocated to skilled workers going to their family members."
What a farce
abc.net.au/news/2025-09-08/l…
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An endorsement you really don't want going into an election....
Beijing has nominated Anthony Albanese as the leader other American allies should emulate, ahead of a meeting between the PM and Xi Jinping in Peru: bit.ly/3URzz1V
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There are over 2,000 people in Australia with 6 or more investment properties who declared an income below the tax free threshold in 2022-23.
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This is why Australia hasn't faced the same challenges as other nations with unemployment post-GFC.
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I think we have arrived at the point where we can say with a reasonable degree of certainty that without high migration and taxpayer funded job creation, Australian inflation would have been sufficiently under control for the RBA to begin to cutting rates.
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"Treasurer Jim Chalmers has opened the door to tax changes beyond superannuation, admitting the federal budget is unsustainable and the economy’s stagnant productivity will not deliver higher living standards for working people."
afr.com/policy/economy/chalm…
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Australia federal company tax from resources
2015-16: $5.1bn
2016-17: $10.8bn
2017-18: $14.5bn
2018-19: $20.2bn
2019-20: $23.0bn
2020-21: $30.9bn
2021-22: $40.8bn
2022-23: $42.5bn
A truly astounding windfall provided to government, yet so little benefit for the Everyman.
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The RBA has basically one lever.
One.
The federal government has many.
The RBA also weren't the ones who allowed people to borrow so much, that was APRA.
I'm all for criticizing the RBA when they screw up, but right now they're just doing their job, the govt isn't.
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Why would young people who have been definitively (statistically) and publicly thrown under the bus by our leaders stand up for an Australia which doesn't stand for them?
We still live in a sheltered land, at least in our national imagination, but distance no longer affords us protection – we must be prepared to stand up for ourselves: bit.ly/4gjDi0L
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'ABS tries to censor migration debate'
"It appears that somebody within the government has strong-armed the ABS into going after media outlets for criticising the federal government for failing to control immigration."
Wow....
macrobusiness.com.au/2025/08…
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Australia is so ripe for a populist third party alternative its not funny.
And if that figure played their cards right they wouldn't need a traditional media spend, others would inadvertently give them all the publicity they could want.
Kim Williams has unleashed on U.S. podcaster Joe Rogan, describing him as "deeply repulsive".
The ABC Chairman was speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra yesterday when he was asked about the "Rogan effect" and the podcaster's stunning appeal to young men. #9News
READ MORE: nine.social/S5nb
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I disagree with Trump on many things, but damn can that man spend political capital.
In Australia, our leaders meekly tinker around the edges or actively make things worse for every day people, rarely rocking the boat too much.
Trump took the boat and set it on fire.
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This will never stop you know.
There will always be something else they want to take away.
Australia's eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant has recommended that YouTube be included in the government’s social media ban for young people under the age of 16.
Read more: ow.ly/TSs250WffWs
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Some of you may have noticed I haven't been on Twitter as much in the past few days.
With the birth of my first child, I have been busy, as you might imagine.
It's a very exciting time and the beginning of one of lifes great journeys 😁
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I've come to the conclusion that Dutton has the political instincts of a house brick.
Why would a multimillionaire property investor think bringing their adult son on the campaign trail to talk about their struggle to afford a home was a good idea...
'Peter Dutton's son is saving for a home. But the Coalition leader won't reveal if he'll help'
(Dutton brought his son on the campaign trail)
sbs.com.au/news/article/pete…
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Aus economy reality check
- The coal industry gets $29bn p.a in subsidies/support from the govt and provides a total of 38,000 jobs
- The car industry got $200m p.a and employed over 200,000
Why couldn't we save the car industry for 1/145th of the cost of coal subsidies? 🤔
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The Rapid Decline of Aussie Universal Healthcare
I find it kind of crazy how little attention is being paid by policymakers to the collapse of bulk billing for the majority of Australians.
We pushed back and defeated a $5 co-pay and now $40-50 out of pocket is normal in many places.
The working poor who dont qualify for a concession card are hardest hit.
Meanwhile, I talk to nurses at major public hospitals and I'm told ER's increasingly have patients whose ailments would be better addressed by a GP.
Our healthcare system was once a point of profound pride for Aussies, something we could point to and say "We do this really well".
But that is fading as other priorities catch the eye of policymakers.
Much like the rental crisis, this issue goes inadaquately addressed and millions of Australians are paying for it, figuratively and increasingly literally.
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The data definitively shows that more recent migrants (last 10 years) are significantly less likely to be employed in home building than the average.
The current Aussie migration intake adds far more to housing demand than it does the ability to provide more supply.
Wow, the gaslighting when it comes to immigration and housing is off the charts.
Check out this excellent question and the shocking responses from tonights Q&A program:
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Demonizing regular people who take issue with high immigration is a mistake by the nation's political class.
They should be listened to and our democracy respected.
All we need to do is look around the world to see where this is going without changing course, nowhere good.
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When I first saw this, I thought it might not be real.
But no, it's from the ABC's Instagram.
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"Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is considering an election pledge to hold a referendum next term on deporting criminal dual nationals."
Wasting a referendum on that? Zero vision.
smh.com.au/politics/federal/…
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Australian net migration by country of birth for 2023-24.
Source: news.com.au/finance/economy/…
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Polling in Canada is quite amazing.
The right is ahead among 18-34's and the left is ahead dramatically for 55+.
Older demographics appear to be guardians of a profoundly broken status quo, one that they have benefitted from.
Chart: Bloomberg
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Our new incoming RBA Governor has a $6m property portfolio and 4 investment properties....
news.com.au/finance/economy/…
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"India is in "deep negotiations" to create 1 million homes in Australia and has reached out to the UAE for financial help on the same, Union Minister Piyush Goyal has said."
More outlets have picked this story up overnight. Wild stuff.
hindustantimes.com/real-esta…
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I swear some folks need to take the 90 seconds required to see that Australia has allegedly had a permanent skills shortage for over a decade now.
Either migration is poorly targeted, the broad based skill shortage is largely a myth or both.
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When they finish their studies in Australia, some international students are selected to stay in the country on a graduate visa.
The top 10 professions includes, cleaners, waiters, chefs, call centre managers, cashiers, accountants and nurses.
Chart: Jobs and Skills Australia
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My dad is currently in hospital overseas after a suspected heart attack.
His prognosis is thankfully okay and he got there in time.
But if you could consider including him in your prayers or send some good vibes our way, if your that way inclined, that would be much appreciated
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"According to ACOSS's findings, the richest 10 per cent of households own two-thirds of all investment properties and are receiving 82 per cent of the $16 billion in tax relief the two breaks (negative gearing, CGT discount) provide."
9news.com.au/national/housin…
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In 1997, the Howard government sold off $2 billion worth of Australia's gold reserves at ~$306 USD an ounce.
Recently it hit $3400 USD per ounce.
Today that gold would be worth $25 billion.
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'Online Gaming Platforms And YouTube Will Also Seemingly Be Banned For Aussies Under 16'
Good luck with that... press-start.com.au/news/2024…
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"I think over the next few years, the entire political class is going to find out what happens when you ignore the one third of this country getting screwed over by a housing system that funnels billions of dollars into the people that don't need it right now"
He's not wrong.
After about an hour of listening to the head of the property industry argue for more of the same when it comes to tackling the housing crisis, I couldn’t help but let my frustration boil over. I know many of us - the millions of Australians who rent - are feeling this same way.
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"We're in danger of developing a society where some people are able to buy their 6th, 7th, 8th home, but people trying to get into the market to buy their 1st home simply aren't able to."
Albanese on the impact of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount in 2016
"Australians know this is an issue for their kids & grandkids, they're being frozen out of the market" my comments on negative gearing
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The data shows that young people today are spending less in real terms on consumption than any other 18-35 cohort in at least 22 years.
Consumption is not the problem, the figures are quite clear on that.
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Sometimes I wonder what the point of Year 9 Business Studies actually was, when years later we would be told by government that adding significantly to demand has a minimal impact on prices in an inelastic and undersupplied market.
Don’t kill the houseplant Maria🪴
Maria bought her first home with Labor’s 5% deposit scheme and told us she wouldn’t have been able to buy without our government’s support.
From today, every first home buyer can do the same. We’re cutting years off the time it takes people to save a deposit for that first home.
So you can start paying off your own mortgage, not someone else’s.
Enjoy your new place, Maria!
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It's disheartening to see how many native born Australians feel disconnected from their birthplace and its people.
So much time is spent delegitimizing the very nature of our country, the great achievements of our people and our connection with our homeland are too often lost.
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Without overseas migration Sydney's population would be shrinking.
It's also worth noting the Exodus out of Sydney is 5x larger than our of Melbourne.
h/t @NatedawgO7
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If you had of told me 5 years ago that an Aussie govt would:
- Run high migration in a housing shortage
- Admit they are making the problem worse and will for years to come
Yet most people are largely fine with it, I would have thought you were crazy.
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"Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"
Not buying it.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has confirmed the Albanese government will be "steadily managing" the level of overseas migration "down quite considerably" following a net gain of 446,000 people to Australia last year.
skynews.com.au/australia-new…
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"Australia's largest company (CBA) has been accused of "lying to workers" after sacking hundreds of staff and replacing them at the company's Indian subsidiary" skynews.com.au/business/fina…
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