I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection. art-bin.com/art/omodest.html
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- Followers 123,800
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amazingly, "dont pick a fight with a narcissistic billionaire who owns their own social media site" isn't specific enough
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WeWork used artificial intelligence to learn that people drink coffee in the morning so they should hire a barista
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Xi calling TikTok “spiritual opium” goes so hard if you really think about it
“The concession was TikTok.
For Trump, forcing the sale of the high-profile app was a populist victory framed around national security. For Xi, however, the app was a low-cost bargaining chip. He had privately dismissed it as “spiritual opium,”
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Goldman strategists calculate a 72% probability that 10 year treasuries outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade
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Holy shit the transcript is real he really said the wall needs to be transparent so you don't get hit in the head by 60 pound bags of drugs
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Don't blame me I just voted for [crypto, tax cuts, deregulation, insert insignificant personal policy preference] not the destruction of the institutions and order that provided the stability and opportunity for me to succeed
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As incompetent and inept as I thought Trump was, I would've taken the over on a special counsel named by 120 days. Stunning achievement.
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Zuck with an open letter to every company in tech:
"Since we reduced our workforce last year, one surprising result is that many things have gone faster"
"Indirect costs compound and it’s easy to underestimate them"
"A leaner org will execute its highest priorities faster"
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Gas stations are convenience stores
Auto dealers are lenders
Ecommerce sites are advertising networks
Restaurants are alcohol distributors
I think a fun running series would be something like: What's that business's actual "business"?
EG: Airlines don't make money by flying ppl around. The profits come from credit cards.
What are other industries whose profit center would surprise most people?
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a french bank trader taking an outsized position in illiquid markets and blowing up? there's a first time for everything.
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Honestly I could caption this picture all day. I'm not sure I've ever seen a more iconic image capturing the current moment.
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There’s no way I could watch, but every comment that in any way equates the two is absurd. One is a politician, a decent person, who is old but so what. The other is a dangerous unhinged moron who is a threat to the country and the world. Stop pretending they are at all the same.
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Just finished rereading Netflixed. Good quick tale of the founding through Qwickster. Renewed appreciation for how farsighted and bold Netflix was. At almost every decision point, they went for broke. I want to focus on one of those, because it’s pretty wild. Total Access.
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I appreciate this energy. Get drunk. Haze your customers. Give them the hard sell.
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"I'm right and you're smart, so think on it for a few minutes and you'll agree with me"
RIP Charlie Munger. One of a kind.
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Uber: from venture backed startup to IPO to issuing 30 year bonds at 5.35% to buy back tons of stock. Truly the American dream.
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my favorite part of reminiscence of a stock operator is when Livermore writes that if banks are crashing he would just rotate into software and semis and wait it out
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Sometimes politics is so insane you can only marvel. CA legislator in their infinite idiocy passes $20 min wage for fast food. Panera franchisee and Newsom benefactor argues for and gets carve out for restaurants making bread onsite. Bagels and croissants don't qualify as bread.
California's new $20 minimum wage rule will exempt restaurants that sell bread, handing a lucrative break on wages to the Panera chain and one of Governor Gavin Newsom’s longtime allies trib.al/YsrXyLl
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I love the instructions now at airports to find the Uber pickup areas. Take the rope swing across to level 2, repel down to the ground floor, cross the snake pit, and you’ll see the signs.
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I don’t know how many times I’m going to post this the next four years but my guess is a lot
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My view is whenever this nonsense is over, if you're under say 28 and not considering moving to NYC, you are a moron. That place is gonna go so bonkers for the first 12-18 months. There will be much revelry and merriment.
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Peter Thiel says his rough place holder for the impact of AI is inline with the internet, maybe adding 1 percentage point to GDP growth every year for 10-15 years.
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We are likely witnessing the biggest nominal demand shock in the shortest period of time in our lives so it’s almost certain whatever is done is both unprecedented and too little. Go big or go home.
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Real talk: if you gain control of the most important accounts in the world and only make $113K you should be arrested for being the most incompetent crook of all time.
"Here's the key to bank vault. Take whatever"
"No thanks, give us those pens, the coffeemate and 3 notepads"
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On a long enough timeline, everyone sells ads wsj.com/articles/apple-looks…
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The risk to the size of the stimulus bill is so asymmetric it’s maddening. Assume it’s 3T or $4T. What’s the risk? After living through this cycle, worrying about a bond market crash or non linear inflation versus mass unemployment and a depression is beyond insane, it’s cruel.
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Bernstein models that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico adds $2700 per car, would wipe out 65% of GM's FCF, and lead to lower profits and lower investment in the US.
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Proud to live in a country where you can earn tens of millions of dollars rigging 3rd world elections but you better report it on your taxes
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Retail investors whose trades are routed to Citadel were net sellers of the stock on the week through yesterday.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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Around 2016, an acquaintance asked which person, in a long life, he felt most grateful to.
“My second wife’s first husband,” Munger said instantly.
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I cannot emphasize enough, businesses can't reasonably scenario plan for their entire revenue base to disappear in one month. That is not a thing. Down 30%? Sure. Down 50%? Ok, that's extreme, but can happen. Total cessation of economic activity for multi months? GTFO.
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Imagine going to work at The Onion tomorrow knowing you have to compete with this timeline
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"Companies are double-checking the numbers on planned factories, or halting them altogether."
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Chase card spend by category in April is wild. Airlines down 9%, lodging down 3.8%, overall T&E negative, restaurants and grocery up .5-2%, and wholesale and discount stores up 8.9%. Easter shift def explains some, but that's still stark spread.
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not content with destroying pricing in the private markets, Masa Son and his merry band of mispricers brought their talents to the public markets ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f…
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Incredible addition to META risk factors:
"Mr. Zuckerberg and certain other members of management participate in various high-risk activities, such as combat sports, extreme sports, and recreational aviation, which carry the risk of serious injury and death"
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it’s important to understand how wrong this is and make sure it not get traction spreading misinformation. Real households in real pain are going to get real help and nothing about any of this will devalue their currency, as tho they have some FX mismatch in their life.
The stimulus package is called the American Rescue Package.
It doesn’t rescue Americans. It hurts them in a significant way.
It devalues their currency and savings.
We have the money without creating more, we just choose to spend it on dumb shit that gets people re-elected.
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1/ This article is fantastic. Touches on so many of the themes I've been thinking about over the last few years in ecommerce and physical retail. Rising CAC, stores as acquisition channels, feedback loop offline and online. Must read. inc.com/magazine/201805/tom-…
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Imagine there's no buybacks
It isn't hard to do
No way to return capital
Cause no dividends too
Imagine only acquisitions
I wonder if you can
No bankers need for hunger
Value destruction, oh man
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This shareholder letter from Grubhub is one of the most brutally honest management communications I've ever seen.
Can read it as having two audiences: GRUB's shareholders, and the investors in and potential investors in Doordash, Postmates, and UberEats.
s2.q4cdn.com/772508021/files…
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Yale is rumored to be selling a $6B PE portfolio. As of June 2024, the endowment was $41.4B, so it’s roughly 15% of the endowment for sale. The last time I can find a disclosure of the portfolio allocation, LBOs were 17.5% and illiquids were 45% with a target of 50%.
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Bessent says 40-50% of tariffs is offset by increase in the currency, and exporters choose to eat some of it, so not 1 for 1 pass through.
More important: "we are trying to make China rebalance", but "this is a 10 year project".
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Imagine there's no financials
It isn't hard to do
No one building anything
And no travel too
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope some day you'll join us
And own QQQ for fun
Imagine only tech cos
Its easy if you try
Selling to each other
Revenue to the sky
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Every article or research report I see saying how AI is going to lead to huge cost savings for businesses as they are able to remove labor and inefficiencies, making them structurally more profitable, reminds me of this anecdote which I post too frequently
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Andreessen on Deepseek is good and gets to why it matters more than just the cost of the final training run
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Lots to chew on in Instacart S-1, but was curious what people make of this. Their Snowflake bill was $13M, $28M, $51M in 2020/21/22. 2023 bill will be $15M. Is that just "optimization"? Did they migrate? Is that indicative of the magnitude of optimizations? What's the read here?
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No restaurant is at the mercy of delivery apps. If the fees charged are too high, they can hire their own delivery people, have a website/app that accepts orders, and acquire customers online like any other business. It's the restaurants choice to participate.
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Forthcoming Atlantic article:
"A taco truck and a twitter thread: how one man saved Christmas"
Update: The city of LB just announced it has temporarily suspended container stacking limitations.
Thank you everybody who called the governor and the mayor to request. They got the message, you can stop now...
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This might be the best interview of Nadella. Very tough and direct questions but totally fair and warranted. Nadella's answers shine light not just on Microsoft's business model evolution due to AI, but how he thinks SAAS, hyperscalers, neoclouds, etc will be impacted. A+
.@satyanadella gave me and @dylan522p an exclusive tour of Fairwater 2, the most powerful AI datacenter in the world.
We then chatted through Satya's vision for Microsoft in a world with AGI.
0:00:00 - Fairwater 2
0:04:15 - Business models for AGI
0:13:42 - Copilot
0:20:56 - Whose margins will expand most?
0:37:12 - MAI
0:48:42 - The hyperscale business
1:03:39 - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership
1:10:30 - The CAPEX explosion
1:16:01 - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?
Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on Youtube, Apple Podcasts or Spotify to tune in.
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Thing I learned from @Lingling_Wei newsletter: "The only instance in recent memory when a Chinese leader initiated contact with an American leader occurred on Sept. 11, 2001, when then-President Jiang Zemin sent a telegram of condolence to George W. Bush"
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I love Google so much. They embarked on a project called the Great Search Shift and ended up rounding the corners on some images and videos
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GS:
By every metric we track retail activity is the largest since 99/00. I have been tracking cross asset flow-of-funds for past 16-years. I could never imagine typing the following. “Yesterday we saw retail, message board traders, stop-out shorts from institutional investors"
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buy books
I want a smart home. What’s the simplest way to start?
recode.net/2016/12/9/1389497…
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People stuck in fucking spreadsheets don’t understand what is happening and it’s infuriating
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Departing Bernstein analyst's thoughts on investing in tech:
"There is a misguided obsession in many tech circles around predicting the future of technology. In contrast, I would posit that predicting the future is actually pretty easy - the hard part is making any money on it."
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They're pumping the wrong bags is one of the funniest things I've seen on here in a long time. Sure it's real last days of Rome vibes, but undeniably hilarious.
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Latest Redfin data shows home buying demand has now fully recovered after being down 34%. Wild.
redfin.com/blog/homebuying-d…
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Morgan Stanley "only" values Tesla's auto business at $230B. It values Tesla's robotaxi not actually a business at more than the auto business and around 2x Uber. Something called 3rd party EV powertrain is worth $120B. This is the wildest SOTP I think I've ever seen.
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Destroys highest value part of Twitter. Magic of this place is when someone you don’t follow sees a tweet of yours they like and starts a conversation in DMs. I’ve made more connections and learned more from that than the main feed. Should be able to opt for open DMs @elonmusk
UPDATE: Twitter to change policy to help reduce Spam DMs later this week.
Only verified users will be able to send DMs to users that don’t follow them back.
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I think Tinder will do around $2B in revenue and $900M in EBITDA in 2021. As someone who has followed this business from day 1, that is bonkers.
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This by @matt_levine is exactly how I feel about crypto. Likely transformative in ways unimagined, mostly full of scams.
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My god this lede. Frame it. Save it for all eternity. It is the chef’s kiss of written words. The last sentence alone deserves a Pulitzer.
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