all my situations are special
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Ken griffin got the IRS to apologize to him? Jesus. That’s right up there with buying the constitution in terms of villain stuff
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I love it when business biographies reveal the guy is just a total idiot chancing into success
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They lost a lot of fucking money funding dogshit businesses that add no value to the world and are coming to terms with the fact they aren’t the philosopher kings they so desperately want to be, not more complicated than it needs to be
A lot of VCs are right now at cognitive overload
There’s no need to be sympathetic (at all), but it’s something to be aware of when you see VCs acting … differently
Here’s what’s happening:
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Guy at the bar next to me is switching between looking at jet skis on Facebook market place and talking to about 16 women on bumble
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You have enough money to hire an analyst
Fintwit: I would like your help please.
I'm looking for any company, any sector with a market cap greater than $200M but less than $1.5B, good FCF and EBITDA and no debt that you think can predictably stay flat or grow modestly over the next 5-10 years.
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Deeply embarrassing and an indictment of Capital that the richest guy in the world is a meme stealer and the second richest guy in the world is acting like a freshly minted Jacksonville millionaire
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I think about how Carl Ichan's 2015 LYFT investment thesis was essentially "Uber is valued at $50b, and LYFT does the same thing and is only valued at $2.5b" at least once a week
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if your insider trading partner is a guy named Rigatoni from Long Island you're going to get caught
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Covid testing lines really need two groups sick people and people trying to go to Cabo shouldn’t be in the same line
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I am in the process of launching a short biased fund, normally I’ll get about 2-3x cold inbounds a week from allocators.
Yesterday I got 13. Nothing changes sentiment more than price.
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NYC is the short you cover and 180 when it’s down 30% not the one you press
My view is whenever this nonsense is over, if you're under say 28 and not considering moving to NYC, you are a moron. That place is gonna go so bonkers for the first 12-18 months. There will be much revelry and merriment.
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$PLUG is now a $20 billion market cap. The $8.2 billion in market cap it added last week is roughly 6x their $1.3b in cumulative revenue since 1999. The business has lost $1.4 billion over that time period
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Asking compliance if I can share a Reddit post with derogatory language because it’s moving a stock welcome to 2020 baby
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You’re telling me this neighborhood has a warby Parker??? AND there’s a marine layer next door? What’s next. A salt and straw? Perhaps a bar taco too???
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nothing warms my heart more than starting to poke around a new company and seeing the 60 year old CEO commenting on college girls LinkedIn updates
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Inside of you are two wolves. One wants to short the small cap Miami-based body contouring spa roll-up you just learned about the other is afraid to bet against the spending power of south florida women
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I find it so fascinating that the primary method of learning in finance (reading books about old people) seems to be the sports equivalent of watching basketball film from the 50s
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I don’t know what’s happening with Evergrande but I’m not trusting anyone doing a Big Thread on it right now
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Best part about being a single guy in your mid 20s is you can order two large pizzas on a Friday night and just eat that through the weekend
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You couldn't write a character that went on CNBC didn't know what a stock he pitched did (I maintain this is fine if you own it) and then spent the weekend posting videos of his Lambo and shooting guns
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Holy shit Pinterest is acquiring VSCO. they are going to have a monopoly on all types of women. That’s so profitable.
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Thinking about the fact that there was a nationwide cupcake bubble in the early 2010s (we don't address that enough as a company) and Crumbs Bakeshop was projecting 200 nationwide locations by 2014, the year it filed for bankruptcy
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Eight year old me would have been thrilled to find out that having $36,000 in revenue and drawing awesome truck pictures made you worth $14 billion.
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Ever since Covid I give myself a little pat on the back when I have a successful human interaction, but today I told my barista you too when she said thanks for coming in... time for a new place
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Totally normal quote. Not red flag raising at all. Putting him on Jacob Wohl watch.
“[I] made most of my money in the New York Stock Exchange.” newrepublic.com/article/1589…
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increasingly convinced Dalio is either a fraud or the CIA has dirt on him and is using him why else would he be making tik toks
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Too many contras saying conflicting things, time to take a step back and focus only on the high quality contras, the contras that got us here
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This is personally my favorite chart ever.
GE was, without a doubt, the greatest single-name equity short of all time. A chronically mismanaged serial earnings manipulator with unlimited GC borrow, liquid entry/exit, zero squeeze or takeout risk, and 20+ years of 14% annualized underperformance w/o drawups? Incredible.
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This is like Mike Pearson being like what is toenail fungus and why do we have a $1000 per script drug for it
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Which is $43 billion less than what Chewy currently trades for, four years later.
Ryan Cohen sold Chewy in 2017 for $3.3B and put all his proceeds into two stocks: Wells Fargo and Apple.
His Apple stake is up 275% (worth $886M) making him the largest individual shareholder.
Late last year he added a $76M stake in Gamestop which is now worth ~$692M (up >800%)
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Great read and I still think Tepper the 🐐 and this is an all-time quote.
neckar.substack.com/p/david-…
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Nothing like getting a coffee on your way to meet a guy for coffee to really make you feel like a dumbass
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If you worked on a SPAC or were involved with one, I will send you several beers if you tell me what the process of making the projections were. Was management directing that, were the promoters? did you sit a rat in front of excel? I just want to know
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Is there an app that just texts all of your contacts Merry Christmas? Im trying to be a better friend this year
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Oh no my annual I woke up I can’t move my neck or back disease flared up on masters week this is terrible
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brain is so broken I wondered how you could short polio
1. Short #polio thread: Africa was declared free of wild polio today. The entire continent has gone at least 3 years without discovering evidence of circulation of wild polio virus. Generations of children will be spared the scourge of polio. polioeradication.org/news-po…
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I hung up a shingle this November and unrelated to that have had several gin and tonics while baking cookies so time for some thoughts on that:
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if I were doing a fraud (hypothetically) I would ensure my user metrics didn't imply a customer base larger than the number of people currently on earth
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"We are revenue positive" is a wild thing for a CEO to say about his company, but so is six space companies going public
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What is it about the buyside that completely robs you of your ability to spell, form coherent thoughts, or use grammar in email after ~15 years
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Doing my annual home for the holidays watching of CNBC: so far Jim Cramer has said the metaverse will let companies eliminate 1/3 of their costs and Joe Kernan has asked a guest 3 times if he's a capitalist or a socialist
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investors on feb 15th: it's cheap on 5x my 2023 revenue estimates
investors today: it's cheap on my dividend discount model
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This is the most consistently bottom of the barrel opionion to have. If you’re going to make stupid historical claims at least pick the Renaissance
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My most toxic trait is that I can’t actually have a full working model that I simply update every quarter. Instead I end up building half baked models to back into the stuff I care about after every quarter. I detest this about myself.
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My favorite Tegus transcripts to read are the ones where the person is like "so this thing, it's a scam right?" and the former's go "well you see, I really enjoyed working there"
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My brother in Christ you spent 10 years not believing inflation numbers and you believe then now 🤡
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I have been writing a "newsletter" of sorts that is really just me BCC'ing people short ideas every four-ish months. DM me email if you want in.
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I was just assuming FB had drawn down 30% based on all the tweets about how it's such a good value down here but nope it's at all time highs
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Saw the Sphere in person. Based on absolutely nothing but vibes this market cap is way too low.
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I would recommend (1) reading this book (2) developing a takeaway (3) making a commitment to doing 1 thing about it every day
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Overhearing what is apparently the worlds biggest psychopath tell the barista she has “such blue eyes” her responding aww thank you 🥰 and then him deadpanning it wasn’t a compliment
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I see a lot of real estate people tweeting about making their third and fourth generations wealthy yet fewer tweets from them about how to avoid raising idiot kids
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You can really tell who has experience shorting stocks and who doesn’t. Something being up 15% on no news is just a normal Tuesday.
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Got a nice new sweater in the mail today and upon reviewing the care instructions I look forward to wearing it until it needs to be cleaned and then getting a new sweater
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I am keeping diligent track of all the SPACs 2025 revenue projections and when they inevitably miss them I will finally be vindicated - this is how I imagine TSLA shorts think
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Some people really, really don't like that there are new behavioral components to the market coming from people that don't look and think exactly the same way they do.
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Medallion Financial was paying touts to write positive articles and comments about it and later paying hush money to these writers.
sec.gov/litigation/complaint…
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