Bracketology and all things college hoops. Featured on @bracketproject. Because every day should be March.
On The Bubble
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Today's upset of Auburn reminded me of Yale's last NCAA Tournament win (2016) when the 12th-seeded Bulldogs upended 5-seed Baylor in Providence.
Taurean Prince, in one of the greatest postgame interview moments ever, explaining how the Bears got outrebounded in the game.
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What a moment as Juwan Gary concludes his home career at Nebraska, getting some love from Iowa players as well as he exits the court.
College basketball, man.
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Friendly reminder that there’s a very strong possibility the Selection Committee would have left this 30-3 Drake team out of the NCAA Tournament field had they lost the MVC Final.
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Virginia continues the most bizarre 8-year postseason stretch in history:
'17: Lose to Florida 65-39 in R32
'18: Lose to 16-seed UMBC in R64
'19: National Champions
'21: Lose to 13-seed Ohio in R64
'23: Lose to 13-seed Furman in R64
'24: Lose to Colorado State 67-42 in First 4
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A look ahead to your 2026 NCAA Tournament sites:
R64/R32:
Buffalo, NY
Philadelphia, PA
Greenville, SC
Tampa, FL
St. Louis, MO
Oklahoma City, OK
Portland, OR
San Diego, CA
Sweet 16/Elite 8:
Washington, DC
Chicago, IL
Houston, TX
San Jose, CA
Final Four:
Indianapolis, IN
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Putting a Top 10 clash between Marquette and Iowa State, at one of the best arenas in the nation in Hilton Coliseum, on ESPN+ is borderline criminal.
When people say college basketball has a bit of a marketing problem, especially pre-March, point to this as Exhibit A.
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I present to you, Saturday December 14th, 2024 across college hoops:
Louisville/Kentucky
Xavier/Cincinnati
Gonzaga/UConn
Texas A&M/Purdue
Tennessee/Illinois
NC State/Kansas
UCLA/Arizona
Creighton/Alabama
Memphis/Clemson
Auburn/Ohio State
Seton Hall/Rutgers
Mississippi State/McNeese
Oklahoma/Oklahoma State
Wisconsin/Butler
Marquette/Dayton
Colorado State/VCU
Florida/Arizona State
Grand Canyon/Georgia
Saint Mary's/Boise State
Providence/St. Bonaventure
Georgetown/Syracuse
Appalachian State/High Point
Richmond/Belmont
Utah State/South Florida
LSU/SMU
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One thing that gets me every year at this time is the jarring suddenness of the end of a team's season.
There is so much buildup & exposure over 5+ months of the regular season.
Then, literally in an instant, it's over. The TV feed kicks back to the studio and players who were a regular in the minds and vernacular of college hoops fans for years exit the CBB stage forever.
Happens every single year but still catches me off guard. The instant permanence of it all is rather startling.
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This kid is so lucky Jay Bilas was in Ames tonight instead of Southwestern Virginia.
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The 8/9 games with Gonzaga, Baylor, UConn, Illinois and Kansas are going to be lit.
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FAU has completed an extraordinary achievement in college basketball. Hitting for the CBB cycle, if you will.
Quad 1 Win
Quad 2 Win
Quad 3 Win
Quad 4 Win
Home Win
Road Win
Neutral Court Win
Quad 1 Loss
Quad 2 Loss
Quad 3 Loss
Quad 4 Loss
Home Loss
Road Loss
Neutral Court Loss
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A look ahead to your 2025 NCAA Tournament sites.
R64/R32:
Providence, RI
Raleigh, NC
Cleveland, OH
Lexington, KY
Milwaukee, WI
Wichita, KS
Denver, CO
Seattle, WA
Sweet 16/Elite 8:
Newark, NJ
Atlanta, GA
Indianapolis, IN
San Francisco, CA
Final Four:
San Antonio, TX
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Perhaps the most March story yet:
13-21 Pepperdine (9-seed) advances to the WCC semis after winning 3 games in 3 days over Portland, Oregon State and tonight Santa Clara.
Waves had won three games straight once all season (Life Pacific, Grambling, N Arizona) and their only four wins in league play entering Las Vegas were sweeps of the bottom two teams in the league (Pacific & USD).
Up next for Pepperdine is Saint Mary’s, a team they lost to by a combined 54 points in two prior meetings this season.
Heck of a run for Ed Schilling & Co.
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Auburn:
KenPom: 1st
BPI: 1st
Torvik: 1st
Evan Miya: 1st
SOR: 1st
WAB: 1st
Quad 1 Wins: 1st
AP Voters: 2nd
What are we even doing here folks?
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A lot of points scored in the Round of 64 today. The only appropriate measurement unit to quantify this is a "Virginia" which is equal to 42 points:
Alabama (2.59 Virginias)
Colorado (2.43 Virginias)
Florida (2.38 Virginias)
Texas A&M (2.33 Virginias)
Charleston (2.29 Virginias)
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Spare a thought for the folks who paid money to go to the Charlotte pod today. They were treated to:
- Michigan State over Miss State by 18
- UNC over Wagner by 28
- Colorado State with 11 points at halftime
- Tennessee crushing Saint Peter’s
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No better advertisement of why not to expand the NCAA Tournament than this.
The idea is complete and utter nonsense.
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This North Carolina team has absolutely zero business being anywhere near the NCAA Tournament.
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Hot damn, the Mountain West did it. The six-bid dream has endured and succeeded.
One final time to break out this bad boy.
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You mean to tell me that making conferences geographically ambiguous was a bad idea for college basketball?
Who could have possibly predicted that?
Mick Cronin on UCLA's travel, and if other teams coming out west balances it out:
"Oh, a Big 10 team has to come to LA, where it's 70 degrees, once. You're asking me to feel sorry because Iowa had to come to LA for a few days? We've seen the Statue of Liberty twice in 3 weeks!"
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Top 25 teams who have lost this week:
No. 1 Purdue
No. 2 Houston
No. 3 Kansas
No. 5 Tennessee
No. 6 Kentucky
No. 9 Oklahoma 2x
No. 11 Marquette
No. 17 Colorado State
No. 18 BYU
No. 19 San Diego State
No. 21 Clemson
No. 23 Gonzaga
Chaos in college basketball.
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If you are in the Chicago area this weekend and are looking for some extremely affordable entertainment, boy do I have an offer for you.
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Whenever I think of Amir Abdur-Rahim I immediately think back to this answer from him after Kennesaw State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Xavier in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
Would encourage you to watch this.
College basketball lost a really good one today.
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Committee Chair Charles McClelland on Michigan State:
CM: "Wasn't only the strength of schedule, but wins against Quad 1 teams"
Counterpoint: MSU had 3 Quad 1 wins. One of those was Indiana State who wasn't good enough to be in the field.
CM: “They had some really big opportunities and the matrix (metrics) was there for Michigan State to be squarely in the tournament”
Counterpoint: MSU had the worst resume average to be included in the field at 47.5. They certainly had some really big opportunities, no doubt about it, but they also went 3-10 against teams in the NCAA Tournament field. So they didn't quite capitalize on those. No comment from McClelland on that.
CM: "We did take a notice of those losses, but they have some significant wins"
Counterpoint: Sparty has one win over the Top 80 of the NET outside of the Breslin Center and didn't beat ONE team with a winning record outside of the state of Michigan.
Saying stuff like this is complete and utter nonsense. Would have rather he come out and said. Their jersey says Michigan State and they have great predictive metrics, that's it. As much as I'd disagree with that logic, it's actual logic hah.
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Kevin Willard: "Jon, u up?"
Jon Rothstein: "We sleep in May."
KW: "Team Meeting in 8 hours. I'm heading to Nova. Keep the tweet vague."
JR: "Spring break capital of the Northeast!"
KW: "Just shut the fuck up and tweet it out."
Sources: Maryland has scheduled a team meeting for Sunday AM.
The expectation is that Kevin Willard informs the Terps that he’s leaving College Park for Villanova.
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13 Years Ago Today: "The WatShot"
Christian Watford drains a buzzer-beating three as unranked Indiana pulls the upset over Kentucky at a raucous Assembly Hall.
Watford had 20 points on 4-6 from deep vs the Cats. The shot was a big part of IU's stellar 15-1 start that season.
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AP Poll oddities, Feb 3:
Oregon gets routed by 26 at UCLA and loses at home to Nebraska. The 0-2 week is enough for the Ducks to ascend from unranked to 21st via @congdonsation.
Texas Tech beats TCU, then gets one of the best wins of the year at Houston. @bylucaevans proceeds to drop the Red Raiders from 17th to unranked while @stephenethom keeps TTU unranked from the week prior.
Missouri goes 2-0 on the week, beating Ole Miss and then clobbering Miss State by 28 in Starkville. @KevinMcNamara33 moves the Tigers from 19th to....19th after the week's results.
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Can we ban 94-feet with Jay Bilas instead?
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Seth Davis: "Can you shed some light on the discussion of North Carolina in the field"
Keith Gill: *Talks exclusively about Saturday night plus Memphis/UAB and nothing about North Carolina*
Jay Wright: "Great answer"
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An SEC team’s conference schedule as it stands now.
18 Quad 1 games
3 Quad 2 games
Good luck!
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Today’s the day folks. Two of the three remaining winless teams in the nation squaring off in Mississippi.
0-13 Jackson State at 0-13 Alcorn State.
Something’s gotta give.
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This is quite possibly the most difficult seven-game conference play stretch in college basketball history.
Roll Tide.
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Looking ahead, Creighton/Tennessee and Illinois/Iowa State could legitimately be Final Four matchups.
And we'll be treated to them in the Sweet 16.
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In an ideal world, all Power 5 programs would be required to have a true road game outside of the P5 each year in their non-conference to be eligible for the postseason.
In reality, that’ll never happen.
Example A as to why:
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In the NET era, every team in the Top 31 of the NET on March 5th has made the NCAA Tournament.
Every. Single. One.
Which makes the below awfully interesting to look at.
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Teams with 4+ Quad 1A wins in college basketball:
Kentucky.
The end.
Cats pick up their FOURTH Quad 1A win in Starkville behind an absurdly good offensive performance. Even despite three losses UK continues to amass one of the best resumes in the nation, bar none.
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How about at-large bids for teams who are 19–14 and six games under .500 in Quad 1 games?
Let’s do that next.
Tom Izzo says autobids for mid-Majors has “got to be looked at seriously” because “while everybody likes the upsets in the first round I’m not sure if that’s true as it goes on.” Also agrees w/Pitino that more former coaches/players should be on selection committee.
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One Quad 3 loss = not going to attract a lot of attention
Two Quad 3 losses = worth paying attention to
That is an awful, awful road loss for UConn at 6-18 Seton Hall.
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Lowest seeds to ever make the Final Four:
‘86 LSU (11-seed)
‘06 George Mason (11-seed)
‘11 VCU (11-seed)
‘18 Loyola-Chicago (11-seed)
‘21 UCLA (11-seed)
‘24 NC State (11-seed)
NC State has a chance to make history in Phoenix, as none of the previous 11-seeds made it to the National Championship game.
The lowest seed to make (and also to win) the National Championship is ‘85 Villanova as an 8-seed.
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Top 25 teams losing this week:
No. 1 Purdue
No. 2 Houston 2x
No. 3 Kansas
No. 5 Tennessee
No. 6 Kentucky
No. 8 Arizona
No. 9 Oklahoma 2x
No. 11 Marquette
No. 17 Colorado State
No. 18 BYU
No. 19 San Diego St
No. 21 Clemson
No. 23 Gonzaga
No. 25 Texas
Pandemonium in college hoops
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Axing more than half the D1 programs and not having this as a standalone game is deeply unserious.
Bring back the gold standard.
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Here’s an odd stat for you.
San Diego State has now made the Sweet 16 four times in its history. En route to those, only one of the eight teams it beat was a single-digit seed (7-seed Temple 2011).
The others:
2011: Northern Colorado (15)
2014: New Mexico St (13) + North Dakota St (12)
2023: Charleston (12) + Furman (13)
2024: UAB (12) + Yale (13)
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Randomly thought about this one the other day. It remains the absolute most nonsensical finish to a college basketball game I've ever seen.
March 19, 2011, NCAAT R32 - Butler over Pittsburgh in perhaps the most bizarre ending of all-time.
Tim Brando & Mike Gminski on the mic.
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John Calipari on April 10th, 2024:
"I met with the team. There is no team"
346 days later that once non-existent team is on its way to the Sweet 16.
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No question about it, this was bracket malpractice by the Committee.
The at-large seeding is absolutely bananas.
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Me as a child:
Cannot wait for Sportscenter to come on. Watches multiple episodes each day.
Me now, immediately after Sportscenter comes on after Marquette/Kansas:
Turns off the TV immediately.
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This is awesome by the Gardner-Webb players consoling a distraught Kobe Stewart of Presbyterian after the Runnin’ Bulldogs knocked the Blue Hose out of the Big South Tournament tonight.
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Teams with 3+ Quad 1 wins in college basketball:
Purdue
Kansas
Clemson
Grand Canyon
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Your Way-Too-Early 2026 Top 25:
1) STOP
2) WITH
3) THE
4) MADNESS
5) THE
6) SEASON
7) JUST
8) ENDED
9) THE
10) PORTAL
11) IS
12) STILL
13) OPEN
14) AND
15) SOME
16) TEAMS
17) HAVE
18) NO
19) PLAYERS
20) LET’S
21) TAKE
22) A
23) GODDAMN
24) BREATH
25) PLEASE
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GREAT MOMENTS IN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT HISTORY: March 7, 2022
After a last-second Mike Bothwell layup to take the lead, Chattanooga's David Jean-Baptiste gets an answered prayer from deep at the horn. Mocs defeat Furman 64-63 to advance to the NCAA Tournament.
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There's 10,000% a better way to do this than mass arresting people, hah.
Jay starting to lose it.
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If NC State doesn't make the tournament a team that's in the field should be able to adopt DJ Burns.
Because an NCAA Tournament without DJ Burns feels so wrong.
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I don't mean to beat a dead horse here, but it's legitimately shocking what's happened in the past 24 hours. That is not hyperbole.
The fact that teams like Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Colorado, FAU, Northwestern and Michigan State are very much still question marks after starting the day in a seemingly comfortable position, is mind-blowing.
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In the past 17 seasons, just three teams have made the WCC Tournament Final:
Gonzaga
Saint Mary's
BYU
Complete and utter domination, particularly from the Zags and SMC who account for all the WCC Tourney titles during that stretch.
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We have our first D2 over D1 winner, and it’s almost assuredly not who you expected.
Hawaii Pacific over Boise State 79-78 at ExtraMile Arena.
An absolute resume killer on night one of the season.
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I will never not be convinced that the real way to game the NET is to be very, very good in Quadrant 3.
This team is 46th in the rankings with its three best wins by ranking being Pittsburgh, Stanford and LSU.
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Final 2024 Maui Invitational records:
Auburn: 3-0
Iowa State: 2-1
Memphis: 2-1
Michigan State: 2-1
Colorado: 1-2
Dayton: 1-2
North Carolina: 1-2
UConn: 0-3
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Wild to say out loud, but since Thanksgiving Kansas has only beaten ONE team that’s in the projected NCAA Tournament field.
The Jayhawks are 1-6 since Turkey Day v that group, with the lone win at home v Iowa State.
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Appalachian State heartbreak after an outstanding season.
The new NIT rule absolutely, positively blows.
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"I don't know anything about High Point. This should be an interesting game."
- Charles Barkley, just now in studio during his HPU/Purdue game analysis
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Looking back, the absolute wildest seeding gaffe, and it’s indefensible really, is Nevada on the 10-line.
There is just no conceivable way I can imagine how the Committee arrived at that spot for the Wolf Pack.
I would love to know the thought process there.
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Upon further review, the Pac-12 paying an exorbitant amount of money for exit fees to effectively become the Mountain West under a different banner is peak re-alignment stupidity.
But kudos to the lawyers and consultants making mega bucks off of this. They’re the real heroes.
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Lmao making people redeem the credit instead of automatically applying.
You have all your customers’ billing info and are quick to debit accounts every month, but not so much the other way.
You guys suck.
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GREAT MOMENTS IN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT HISTORY: March 11, 2016
Cincinnati's Kevin Johnson buries a late three in triple OT for the lead, but is upstaged by UConn's Jalen Adams who ties it with a miracle desperation heave.
Huskies go on to defeat the Bearcats in 4OTs.
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A few NCAAT things can be true:
1) You couldn’t ask for a more elite Final Four than what we have on tap. There is something very special about that.
2) Just because we have an elite Final Four does not guarantee these games will be close. That was said about the E8 too, and 3 of 4 games were largely uncompetitive.
3) The tournament has been pretty dull so far. I don’t think there’s any sugarcoating that.
4) A duller than normal NCAAT is still a tremendous sporting event.
5) The “NIL is destroying” the NCAAT and Cinderella conversation is too early to definitively tell. We simply don’t have enough data to prove that it will squash Cinderella and upsets permanently. Conversely though, the major media guys thumping their chest fervently saying it won’t do that are also jumping the gun for the very same reason. There’s simply not enough data to deny that as a realistic possibility.
6) DO NOT EXPAND THE NCAA TOURNAMENT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.
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West Virginia did not make the NCAA Tournament, but they did:
Beat 8-seed Gonzaga on a neutral court
Beat 4-seed Arizona on a neutral court
Got a true road win at Kansas
Beat protected seed Iowa State in Morgantown
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.@DanaONeilWriter reports NCAA Tournament expansion is trending more toward something like 72 or 76 teams, not 80 or 96.
theathletic.com/5316774/2024…
theathletic.com/5316774/2024…
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On this day 16 years ago:
An F2 tornado strikes downtown Atlanta in the middle of the SEC Quarterfinal matchup between Alabama and Mississippi State. The game is delayed, though eventually completed, after the top of the Georgia Dome starts swaying amidst the severe weather and insulation fell into the arena.
The Bulldogs would go on to beat the Crimson Tide in OT. After a hole was discovered in the roof of the Georgia Dome, the remainder of the Tournament was moved to Georgia Tech's Alexander Memorial Coliseum.
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What on Earth has happened to Syracuse basketball?
The Dome used to be impenetrable.
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Some AP poll oddities. This week:
USC loses to UC Irvine. @nick_a_alvarez moves the Trojans from unranked to 14th.
FAU falls to Bryant. @KellisRobinett keeps the Owls 11th. @chandlerdmack drops them from 9th to 10th.
Ark loses to UNCG. Hogs up from 11th to 10th via @davpresto
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AP Poll oddities, Jan 13:
Cincinnati goes 0-2 on the week, losing by 14+ points in both games. Bearcats up from 25th to 22nd via @kevinsjuts.
UConn loses at Villanova by 2 and beats Georgetown in DC. @JeffRabjohns drops the Huskies from 9th overall to unranked.
Auburn wins SEC road games at Texas & South Carolina, the first of which brings The Tigers Quad 1A win total to a tie for the national lead with four. Two pollsters, @primetimeMitch & @Bretbloomquist, do not have the 15-1 Tigers as their number 1 overall team even after Tennessee drops their first game of the year.
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Our first team in the field (1st overall) is the AUBURN TIGERS!
It's been a bit of a struggle the past few weeks for AU, and I do think there's a bit of a debate here with Duke now, but it's incredibly hard to overlook what the Tigers have put together this season.
If we are going by the Committee's mantra of "full body of work" and "who did you beat and where did you beat them", Auburn has the best resume in the country, and it's not particularly close. The main argument for Duke here is the double ACC titles and the eye test will certainly wow some Committee members to, but if we stick to the principles the Committee espouses that I listed above, have to lean AU here.
Auburn owns an outright title in perhaps the strongest single-season a league has ever had, has eight Quad 1A wins away from home, six Quad 1A wins v projected protected (1-4) seeds, 15 wins away from Neville Arena, and holds the top spot across all three resume metrics (SOR/WAB/KPI).
The Tigers have been outstanding all year, and are extremely deserving of the top overall spot.
Auburn heads to the South region, and will kick it's NCAAT off in Lexington, KY.
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This is a comically difficult eight-game stretch Vanderbilt is about to embark on.
Thoughts and prayers.
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For some perspective, Louisville just matched their Quad 1 + Quad 2 win total from the last two full seasons in just two days in Atlantis with wins over Indiana and West Virginia.
Entering this year the Cardinals had gone 2-33 in Q1/Q2 games during the Kenny Payne era.
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