Senior Analyst, Iran and Oil @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own.
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New pinned tweet, as the links broke for the old one:
"Petroleum and Progress in #Iran: Oil, Development, and the Cold War." cambridge.org/us/academic/su…
"The Struggle for #Iran: Oil, Autocracy, and the Cold War, 1951-1954." uncpress.org/book/9781469671…
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Who is Target and how do I vote for them?
What's at stake for our climate in this November's elections?
Absolutely everything.
carbonbrief.org/analysis-tru…
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For all my non-oil peeps, an update:
A few days ago, the big OPEC/Russia meeting ended without a deal to cut production. Now Russia and Saudi, the two biggest exporters, are saying they’re going to maximize production and flood the market.
So why does this matter?
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Huge news:
US and Venezuela have reached a deal where US lowers sanctions on VZ oil production; in exchange, Maduro will allow free and competitive elections next year. washingtonpost.com/world/202…
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Israel apparently used more bunker busters to kill Nasrallah than the US used in the entirety of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
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April: we're going to prove the economists wrong
May: tariffs are just leverage for negotiating deals
June: changing the tariffs will get us better deals
July: data proves economists were wrong about tariffs
August: we need to fire the people who collect the data
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Absolutely inconceivable for any president since...I mean, not even FDR would have done this. New territory, people.
Tuesday, I’ll go to Michigan to join the picket line and stand in solidarity with the men and women of UAW as they fight for a fair share of the value they helped create.
It’s time for a win-win agreement that keeps American auto manufacturing thriving with well-paid UAW jobs.
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What makes this funnier is that the Houthis likely only have one (1) plane.
This is it.
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Yemen* will now go down in history as the first country to initiate space combat.
"Israel this week used its Arrow missile-defence system to shoot down a ballistic missile outside of Earth’s atmosphere, in what is believed to be the first combat ever to take place in space."
msn.com/en-us/news/world/how…
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I didn't want it to come to this, but you all have left me no choice: rumors regarding a 50yr US-Saudi agreement "expiring," triggering the end of dollar dominance, are total nonsense.
A thread:
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Massive intelligence failure for Israel, which was loudly declaring Hamas had an HQ under Al Shifa, and an embarrassing moment for Biden, who publicly supported this assertion.
Looks like they found basically nothing.
Israeli officials said "no further evidence of Hamas activities in the hospital was scheduled to be made public for now"
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Saudi had led the charge to cut production. But this time, Russia wasn’t having it. And now the Saudis have announced big discounts on their crude, particularly the stuff they sell to the US. It’s essentially a declaration of war on US producers. Expect gas prices to plummet
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It’s a price war—what happens in global oil when cooperation breaks down and competition becomes cut-throat.
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The rupture between Modi and Trump has been fed in part by Modi's apparent unwillingness to embrace and encourage the president's flexible relationship with reality.
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But what we might see now is a bloodbath. Gas prices have been floating between $50-60 all year. Most companies can turn a profit at that level. But now prices are in the $40s, with the Saudi surge likely to send them into the $30s. The impact will be massive.
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This move is a response to years of frustration: as OPEC/Russia have cut, they’ve lost market share to US shale, which has won a big piece of the market and turned the US into a major exporter for the first time in decades.
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Economically, this could get very bad for Texas and North Dakota, where the oil and gas industry carries a lot of weight. Most companies are hedged, so even sweeping bankruptcies or defaults might not produce economic impacts—a shale bubble might not impact the broader US economy
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But what this really shows is the Russian determination to win back some territory on the global oil market—and their willingness to do this, however it might impact the US economy. And Saudi followed suit almost immediately
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Uncertainty on the market, declining demand, high competition and low profitability is going to hit the domestic US industry hard. It wont kill it entirely, but it will certainly depress investment.
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Low gas prices are usually a plus. But for Trump, this could take the wind out of the whole “energy dominance” thing. The broader economic impact might be worse than some expect.
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US shale has changed the whole global oil picture. But companies are drowning in debt. The squeeze started late last year, as Wall Street started pressing firms to tighten up and impose some fiscal discipline. Folks expected in 2020 to see the pace of growth in the US patch slow.
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Harris' national security advisor Phil Gordon wrote a book on US policy in the Middle East in 2020.
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For those developing oil/gas takes, a few things to note:
1) the oil produced in the US is materially different than the oil produced in Russia.
2) the current oil market is very tight, very little spare capacity outside of UAE/KSA and Iran post-nuclear deal.
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I've spent most of my career thinking/writing about Iranian oil and now that it's all over the headlines I am...otherwise engaged.
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Privately, DOD admits they have had limited success against the Houthis, despite strikes being larger than what was done under Biden, "and much bigger than what [DOD] has publicly described." Costs are $200 million so far and could exceed $1 billion by next week.
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Among G7 leaders, Biden stands out as being relatively popular.
Approval ratings:
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In the last 24 hours, there have been bomb threats at Yale, Cornell, Columbia, Ohio University, and Miami University.
Anybody know what's going on?
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This thread is blowing up, and I may add to it later, but one final thought--the best way to strengthen energy security is to decarbonize, embrace renewable sources, and build energy links that emphasize social responsibility and commitment to democratic politics.
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The narrative that Manchin is pushing here--that there is something "holding back" US energy output, preventing us from achieving "energy independence"--is directly lifted from the rhetoric of the oil and gas industry.
Who are, by the way, holding back US production.
It makes no sense at all for us to continue to import energy from foreign adversaries like Russia. The time for leasing pauses has come & gone. We MUST unleash our abundant natural resources to secure our energy independence, protect our allies & put an end to Putin's brutal war.
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The videos out of Rafah are genuinely horrifying, I urge people to prepare themselves and watch with care.
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A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted:
Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.
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Shocked that a sovereign nation should control more wealth than a group of individuals.
Norway’s oil fund is big. But just how big?
Here’s one way to see it:
It’s bigger than the combined wealth of the richest 10 people in the world.
#dataviz
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Mounting evidence suggests US strikes did not destroy Iran's stock of enriched uranium.
Iran likely to leave NPT, reduce cooperation with IAEA, rebuilding in secret.
Netanyahu suggests Israel will not fight a "war of attrition."
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While Washington churns over the question of spending $3.5 trillion over the next 10 years to keep the country from falling apart to extreme weather and collapsing infrastructure, the idea of $7.5 trillion on defense has met virtually no resistance.
I have deep concerns about the $7.5 trillion trajectory of U.S. military spending over the next decade. At some point, all of us, regardless of party, must ask the simple question — how much is enough?
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This is breaking through
Privately, DOD admits they have had limited success against the Houthis, despite strikes being larger than what was done under Biden, "and much bigger than what [DOD] has publicly described." Costs are $200 million so far and could exceed $1 billion by next week.
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Some left-leaning commentators may issue mea culpas in light of Ukraine's spectacular offensive, but let's keep sight of the bigger picture:
Russia's humiliation at the hands of Ukraine, with US and EU assistance, is a huge blow to the international far right.
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Blackadder was a very funny show, but it's interesting how this moment--which breaks the tone of the previous four series--is what it is most remembered for.
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So a very rough breakdown of what happened with Syria.
1) Assad had been backing away from Iran for years, he talked to Israeli, he (maybe) leaked info on IRGC ops but also his regime had been deeply penetrated by Israeli intelligence. Tehran knew this and was mad about it.
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Yes. It’ll happen almost immediately, as the futures drop in anticipation of over-supply. Low prices might not last too long, tho.
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Hizbullah fired a single drone at an IDF facility at Binyamina and caused 67 casualties (so far) without triggering alarms or defenses.
Impressive for a group ostensibly on the back foot, having lost 80% of its leadership and (according to Israel sources) most of its arsenal.
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This is a direct denial from a regime official:
No missiles were fired into #Iran from outside its territory
There were drones but they were shot down.
A telling, early take on this from within Iran. Risk of immediate Iranian escalation from this event looks low.
تا این لحظه، هیچ حمله هوایی از بیرون مرزها به اصفهان یا نقاط دیگر کشور نشده است و صرفا تلاش ناکام و حقیرانهای با به پرواز درآوردن کوادکوپتر داشتهاند که کوادکوپترها هم ساقط شدهاند
خبرسازی رسانههای آمریکایی صحت ندارد
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As with Bonaparte, he rose from obscurity and had an enormous impact largely through force of personality and an adroit navigation of unstable political terrain. Hard to do 20th century Iranian history without acknowledging his unique role.
If you had to pick one person to argue in favor of the "great man of history" theory, who would it be?
I.e someone with a uniquely decisive impact on events, without whom there's a vastly different outcome, and no plausible alternative actor or structural force filling the role.
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I beg everyone suggesting sanctions and a poorly managed war will result in regime change in Russia to hop on over to #Iran Twitter for a minute.
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Historians are winning their battle with economists because the political scientists are all siding with the historians, which everyone should know is VERY weird.
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"Construct an Islamist ideology with yourself as its leader, project moderation to win support as your secular opponent crumbles, keep your goals relatively vague so as to encourage outside perceptions that your moderation is genuine."
Basically, the Khomeini '79 playbook.
Asked about his way of “Islamic” governance, Abu liberal Jolani says he wants to establish a system in Syria based on institutions, a country which isn’t rule through whims of a leader
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Interesting how conservative rhetoric on education, which once emphasized freedom from oversight and the benefits of charter schools in giving parents "more choice," now emphasizes absolute control over curricula and oversight in the name of ideological purity.
Ron Desantis tonight says that liberal educators are “teaching kids to hate this country,” so he is pushing for a new law so parents can “inspect curriculum,” and sue schools if they catch teachers who “smuggle in” any “inappropriate content.”
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Lots of interesting takeaways from this piece, but the winner has to be "multiple US officials" confirming the Houthis nearly shot down an F-35, the most advanced aircraft ever built.
Trump launched what was meant to be an 8-10 month campaign against the Houthis. He gave it one month.
Once it became clear the campaign was accomplishing nothing, while putting US servicemen in real danger, he pulled the plug and declared victory.
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Still a bit hard to believe, but the evidence that the US is about to start military operations against Venezuela--including, potentially, direct strikes on the leadership--has become undeniable.
It could start this weekend. It may start tonight.
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Aleppo will fall, Syrian army fleeing en masse or preparing to surrender.
Took Assad four years to take the city. Rebels will have it in less than five days.
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Obviously will need to see if both parties hold to the deal.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, though its crude is heavy, sour, and difficult/expensive to extract.
But if 2023 was the year of Iran recovery, 2024-2025 could be the year VZ recovers.
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There's a lot of energy spent on describing what Biden is doing as new or radical, but the case could be made that the 2010s were the real radical departure: a decade-long experiment with austerity. Lesson learned.
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This book has changed my view of the Cold War's end.
And it has cemented my growing certainty that the '73 oil shock is the fulcrum around which the last half-century has turned. Brilliant stuff. @fritz_bartel
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Idk about Nolan taking it on, but making Bond a period franchise makes a lot of sense. Send him back to the Cold War, where he belongs.
According to @mrRuimy, Christopher Nolan is in talks to direct and write at least two James Bond films.
They would be true Fleming adaptations set in the period they were written.
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One wonders how Israel, which claims to maintain air superiority over Iran, missed a long queue of trucks lining up outside Fordow, Iran's most important enrichment complex.
Most of the highly enriched uranium at Fordow, the site producing the bulk of Iran's uranium enriched to up to 60%, had been moved to an undisclosed location before the overnight US strikes on the site, Reuters reported, citing a senior unnamed Iranian source.
Prior to the US strikes on Fordow, satellite imagery from Maxar appeared to show a buildup of logistics activity at the site, with 16 cargo trucks and heavy machinery gathered near the entrance to the main facility on June 19 and 20.
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The highest grossing offshore lease sale in history...and it's for wind turbines, not oil and gas.
.@Interior makes it official: NY Bight offshore wind lease sale sets record *$4.37 BILLION* in winning bids, making it the highest-grossing competitive offshore energy lease sale in U.S. history.
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Israeli officials tell J-Post that there are no signs of regime collapse in Iran.
Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history.
Ten minutes ago, a missile exploded in central Tel Aviv.
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Indonesia is considering an "OPEC for nickle" as a way of leveraging its position as a critical minerals producer into greater economic and geopolitical power.
Truly, we are re-doing the Seventies. ft.com/content/0990f663-19ae…
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Focusing on the oil implications, all I'll say re: Maduro is that it's extremely unlikely he would willingly give up power. Obviously that is the key factor.
But confirms the view that the US is determined to get as much oil on the market as it possibly can. That's the upshot.
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This should be required reading for anyone with an interest in #Iran.
The insights into how life functions within the most heavily sanctioned society on earth are extremely illustrative and--I assume--run counter to most stereotypes.
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Doesn't matter much at this point, since this is the framing that will dominate coverage, but "Hamas rejected an extension" elides the fact that Israel (with US support) refused to abide by the original ceasefire agreement. Nor was it ever likely to do so.
🚨🚨🚨Israel resumes military operations against Hamas in Gaza after the group rejected U.S. proposals for extending ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister's office says
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A revealing passage from Blinken: he had to argue for nine hours to allow aid into Gaza because post-7 Oct, the broad consensus in Israel was that Gaza should be cut off entirely.
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Hard to overstate this book's impact, both in generating excellent scholarship and in producing some very, very unfortunate misconceptions re: how the oil industry functions.
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China has more wind power than any other country and it's not even close, where is this talking point coming from
Burchett: God put coal in the ground, let's use it… There's a reason as Trump told me that there’s no windmills in China.
Community note
In 2022, China continued to have the highest wind power capacity in the world. Also in 2022, a total of 11,098 new wind turbines were installed, of which 695 were offshore, bringing the national total of operating turbines to 181,660.
iea-wind.org/about-iea-wind
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The US has bombed Fordow. It has very likely used enough force to significantly damage, if not destroy, the enrichment facility.
We likely won't know for quite some time. It's possible we may never know, as that will be a big part of Iran's response. 1/
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For a Houthi missile to slip through Israeli air defenses, leave a massive crater, shut down the country's *only* international airport, all after a month-long US air campaign raises real questions re: Israel's readiness in the event of a third Iranian attack.
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Thanks. I’m no expert on Russian geopolitics. My guess is that it stems from years of losing market share. But it might also figure in Russian designs to weaken or disrupt the US economy in advance of the election. Would be interesting, assuming Putin’s preference remains Trump.
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For Vance to immediately confirm in public that the HEU stockpile was not destroyed, despite the US dropping 13 MOPs, suggests the rationale for using force wasn't rock solid.
Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.
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The US air campaign against the Houthis isn't working.
So, things are moving to the next phase: discussions of a ground offensive, led by the internationally recognized govt. out of Aden, with US and (potential) KSA/UAE support. cnn.com/2025/04/06/middleeas…
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"Everything sucks now" arguments just don't hold water for me. I've lived in five cities over the last eight years, and each one had post-industrial sprawl converted into commercial space, retail, restaurants, etc. Our cities are better now! We should be celebrating this.
I still have a mental image of middle America as left behind, in part because it was when I was a student here in Lancaster Pennsylvania. This building was literally a crack den 11 years ago but now it’s a hip bar and restaurant complex, with Moroccan food, BBQ, Thai & more. Wow.
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Having a real hard time accepting "Israel is the new hegemon" thesis.
Normally, a hegemon does not require the active and continuous support of another state to maintain its power projection capabilities.
The dynamic fits "proxy" better than "hegemon."
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Three years after a historic energy shock, the GOP and Trump are poised to pass legislation that is virtually guaranteed to increase the cost of electricity, largely because they don't like where some of it comes from. wsj.com/politics/policy/sena…
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It did: and the failure is partly why MBS took over oil policy. The difference now is demand is falling, Iran, Venezuela and Libya are mostly off-line, and US shale is over-leveraged. The calculation would seem to be that pumping now will be more effective than in 2014
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There won't be regime change. But the regime *will* change.
This war has likely accelerated a trend that was already present: the decline of the clerics, and the rise of the military. economist.com/middle-east-an…
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I've written 1000 books and 5000 articles in the last 10 days and my secret is that none of them are published, they all live inside my head and none of you are allowed to read them, sorry.
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MBS has a temper. That's been established.
But say this was a threat that he intended to follow-up on. What kind of "economic pain" could Saudi Arabia inflict on the US that would not directly threaten Saudi interests more broadly?
SCOOP from @John_Hudson: MBS threatened to fundamentally alter the decades-old U.S.-Saudi relationship and impose significant economic costs on the U.S. if it retaliated against oil cuts, according to classified docs obtained by @washingtonpost
washingtonpost.com/national-…
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The fact that the 10% tariff on Canadian energy is being spun as a moderate step--and not a historic, unilateral act to increase the price of energy by a president who campaigned on lowering gas prices--suggests this is only the beginning.
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