figuring things out

Toronto/Seoul
Re-reading old Berkshire letters while drinking coffee on a Sunday morning in Seoul.
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The portfolio manager with the best performance at my prior firm had the simplest models. Three-statement model with discounted cash flow. One tab. No borrowing models from the sell-side. Manually input 10 years of historical numbers.
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13-F season. Which funds' 13-Fs do you look forward to the most? My picks: - Greenlea Lane Capital - Shawspring Partners - CAS Investment Partners - RV Capital - Himalaya Capital
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.@chamath's story is underrated. Poor kid from Ottawa, first job at Burger King, goes to UWaterloo, works in finance for 1 yr, then heads west to Silicon Valley. Hustles in various jobs, joins Facebook, becomes a billionaire, co-owner of the GSW, founder of Social Capital.. Wow.
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Notes from Charlie Munger's talk at Google in 2016. Haven't seen this before. d0j.blogspot.com/2016/09/not…
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I stumbled across this old man's blog when searching for Buffett/Munger resources. His blog contains tons of posts on his walk with God, his 20-year battle with liver cancer, and also has an extensive section on Buffett/Munger/investing. Fascinating. jameslau88.com/
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My best pal passed away this morning. We went through life together. He gave me so much joy and happiness with his unconditional love. RIP Toby. See you on the other side, little man. ❤️
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Munger on accumulating your first $100,000.
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Great table on turnarounds by Marathon Asset Management.
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Buffett’s characteristics of a wonderful business. Source: The Money Masters by John Train.
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Buffett's answer to how he'd invest small sums if he was 20-something years old
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.@naval's life formulas, circa 2008.
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Signed the purchase agreement to acquire a boring little SaaS business today. Super stoked.
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Slide taken from @MohnishPabrai’s presentation in Dublin. Interesting chart to ponder. I don’t think you should index unless your time horizon is 20+ years.
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Great shortlist of companies to invest in / study. [h/t @BluegrassCap]
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Beautiful slide from Pershing's $SBUX thesis from Oct. 2018.
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The best portfolio hedge is owning companies that will repurchase shares for less than intrinsic value during market sell-offs.
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Cash flow is what drives business value. This Buffett guy had some good insights a while ago. Circa 2000.
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$CROX $2.5b acquisition of HeyDude is a prime example of management getting shiny object syndrome. Financed with debt too. Massive opportunity with the core Crocs brand growing 90%+ in China and 30%+ in APAC.. But their focus is now diluted, have to make HeyDude work
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When I get interested in a company, this is what I do.. - Listen to the top 3-5 interviews of the CEO - Listen to a few earnings calls while walking - Read a few Twitter threads Better use of time to get an initial read on a company than reading the last three 10-Ks, IMO
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Birkenstock bull thesis?
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Put my mom's retirement fund into an equal weighted split between $CSU.TO and $TOI.TO. Plan to continue to dollar cost average into it over time. Can't think of a team more deserving of hard-earned capital than Mark & Co.
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Great article $CPRT - Johnson came from humble beginnings - Natural disasters and distracted drivers = plentiful supply of damaged cars - Scale advantage = contract wins (GEICO an example) - Technology key to their growth - launched online tool in 1998 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The Best of Charlie Munger 1994-2011. Probably a better education than my university degree. valueplays.net/wp-content/up…
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What did I accomplish this decade, you ask? I asked Charlie Munger a question and he said it was a good question.
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Buffett on the Ideal Business “Something that costs a penny, sells for a dollar and is habit forming.” Best example of this is on-prem software with a maintenance contract.
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Can we take a moment to appreciate the great job @BeckyQuick did today?
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Akre initiates positions in $LYV, $ADBE, and $MAR. Sells down $BRK. Pretty active quarter. whalewisdom.com/filer/akre-c…
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Q: Favourite non-Facebook app? Zuck: I probably spend more time on Spotify than any other app. I like music a lot. I think Daniel is a great entrepreneur and a good person. It's a great company and they've done a great job with their work. Zuck seal of approval :-)
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Turns out @sinstockpapi and I know each other from undergrad and were part of the same investment club. Great guy!
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$ROP CRI formula. I’m guessing their floor is in the in high teens, and their hurdle rate on acquisitions is around the same.
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Munger used lots of leverage in his early years. Wonder how many of these wealthy investors leveraged up hugely in their 20-30s to accumulate their initial capital.
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I wonder if all those wonderful LTV/CAC ratios promoted by SaaS companies over the last 2-3 years are holding true now.
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Currently building two micro SaaS businesses, I absolutely love it.
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"We don't get rich on our dividends that we receive, although we're happy to receive them. We get rich on the fact that the retained earnings are used to build new earning power or repurchase shares, which increases your ownership in the company." - WEB, Net Worth $82b
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Real recognize real. Bezos admired a man who made a fortune owning Domino’s Pizza franchises.
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Initial thesis for this acquisition: - Solve marketing using funnels, and outbound/paid traffic - Install a sales team to sell over the phone - Take advantage of low hanging fruit in UI/UX to reduce churn - Raise prices on installed base - Rewrite front-end once LTV/CAC validated
Signed the purchase agreement to acquire a boring little SaaS business today. Super stoked.
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Still trying to wrap my head around how $FB grew FCF by 90% y/y in Q4, while simultaneously increasing capex by 12.5% y/y
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Cheers 🍻 beautiful Sunday in Toronto
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WEB and CM should invite Mark Leonard to join the Berkshire board. Cunningham (who sits on the Constellation board) should make the introduction. Leonard is the best capital allocator in the world, and understands tech and software. Would be a huge win for BRK shareholders.
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Shortlist of Canadian compounders (source: DKAM letter). Haven’t bought a new stock in like two years, feeling the itch!
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$FB has much higher returns on capital than the average S&P 500 company, yet trades at a discount. My thesis - drivers of forward returns: (1) continued above-average returns on capital and (2) multiple expansion as narrative shifts to "internet holdco" h/t @JohnHuber72
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Replying to @thisisverysick
You can check out marketplaces (eg Micro Acquire or Flippa), develop relationships with brokers, or reach out directly to owners.
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Making an offer for SaaS company #2 today.
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Amazing video. Choe got paid in FB stock for his mural in 2007, which is now worth hundreds of millions. piped.video/QfV665kWoSg
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Henry Ford was a pioneer of the fixed margin pricing strategy used by Walmart, Costco, and Amazon.
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Ek’s warrant bet on $SPOT from 2019. We’re getting close to his estimated break-even price of $211. The warrants expire July 2022
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Went for a walk with @nachkari today. Feeling fresh and motivated with lots of ideas.. Thankful!
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Excerpt from Akre Capital Management's The Art of (Not Selling). "We are unfazed when our businesses are quoted in the market at prices above what we would pay for them."
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Number of subreddit subscribers between r/spotify, r/applemusic, r/youtubemusic, r/amazonmusic $SPOT
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One of my favourite nuggets is Peter Thiel's, "If you have a 10-year plan for your life, ask yourself why you can't do it in six months."
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Small win: booked my first discovery call w/ a prospect from a cold outbound email for my newly-acquired SaaS biz. :-)
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I should take out a five-year $500k fixed rate loan and go long Berkshire.
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“The best business is a royalty on the growth of others - requiring little capital itself.“ - WEB
This is a great point. I created a faux Shopify business last year just to get to know their products better, and the first thing they emailed me was a mini-course on how to advertise on Facebook and Instagram. SHOP is an incredible business, but it's also a farm team for FB
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Thiel’s Last Mover Advantage concept. Companies that come to mind: $FB, $AAPL, $NFLX, $GOOG, $SPOT, $WORK, $MTCH These companies look richly valued today but are likely cheap when looking out 15-20 years.
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$NFLX vs. $SPOT gross margins $SPOT recently raised the upper-end of its guidance on long-term gross margins from 35% to 40%
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Replying to @naval
Best example of this that I can think of is Joe Rogan vs. Big Media. You learn more from his podcast interviews than watching mainstream media (e.g. his interviews with Bernie Sanders, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk)..
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Ted Weschler deserves more credit than he's getting for WEB and Berkshire's investment in Apple. Here's Ted's $AAPL thesis from 2016.
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