"Key Context" Substack covering Nvidia/AI. Reached #1 new bestseller in first 24 hrs Subscribe taekim.substack.com "Be so good they can't ignore you"

My Substack's stock ideas since inception have been like Shohei Ohtani going 13-for-14 with 3 grand slam homeruns. It won't last, but it's been fun so far! Ken Griffin says the best stock pickers are right just 54% of the time. $NVDA
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Houston, we have a problem
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Losing the "reserve currency" status for nothing would be one of the dumbest moves in history
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Tim Cook says "thank you" eight times in less than two minutes. Incredible
Rapid Response 47
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This reads like a parody, but it’s on the Sequoia website. What a joke sequoiacap.com/article/sam-b…
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If Microsoft were smart, they would have pivoted and assigned Obsidian to make the next Fallout game ... yesterday.
Fallout 4 has reached over 160,000 concurrent players on Steam. It's currently the second highest playercount for a premium game behind Helldivers 2. Fallout 4 was also the #1 selling game in Europe last week. #Fallout #FalloutOnPrime
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Must see TV for the gaming community. Tyler @Ninja Blevins will be live on @CNBC at 11:30am, talking @FortniteGame @Drake
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XboxEra gave Redfall an “awesome” rating
XboxEra co-founder Nick Baket says he's convinced that no gaming outlets want to give Starfield high scores. He argues other sites have already decided to give Starfield 7.0-8.5 reviews in order to generate traffic and drag the Xbox brand down.
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Tesla has lost $529 billion in stock market value over the last three months. Incredible
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Jensen Huang is an immigrant, as are Lisa Su, Andy Grove, and Sergey Brin. Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos are second-generation immigrants. American technological innovation is the envy of the world, thanks to immigrants.
My favorite speech about America was Reagan's last speech as president. He talks about what makes America great - immigrants. I tear up watching it, especially the last bit. highly recommend spending 4 mins to watch 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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Hey PS5, meet your new friend
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Publishers should let developers cook. Don’t rush them like Redfall and they can make polished stuff like this:
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Trump could make this all stop with one tweet. Congress could make this all stop with one vote by taking back its constitutional authority over tariffs. And yet...
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Replying to @gkamstra
Don't worry. I'm sure the government data is going to say things are swell for next few quarters. No worries, no cry
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If y'all think Xbox is doing better than PS5 this generation, you aren't paying attention. PS5 still sells out instantly, while Series S/X do not. Also, check the disparity of resale prices on StockX. It's not close
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Walmart kicks ass. They know how important the Nintendo Switch 2 launch is. They delivered at 7:10am!, sent real time status texts, and gave me free snacks too. Target? Didn't even ship yet
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Remember when U.S. financial markets were known for unparalleled global relative stability, rule of law, and the risk-free rate? That was 11 days ago.
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tell me you lack first-party AAA exclusives without telling me you lack first-party AAA exclusives
Replying to @Kotaku
tell me you limit yourself to only AAA games without telling me you limit yourself to only AAA games
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Ah yes because getting early access to a beta demo and costumes is exactly the same as being worried a major franchise will get locked out of your platform like what happened with Starfield and Elder Scrolls after a large acquisition
Sony: “giving Microsoft control of Activision games like Call of Duty… would have major negative implications for gamers and the future of the gaming industry” also Sony:
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Nobody tell @ryancohen
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Ten years ago, an EA executive said single-player games were "finished." This year, Sony's Fab Five studios released Spider-Man: Miles Morales, Ghost of Tsushima and The Last of Us 2 to stunning commercial and critical success 🙃 wired.com/2010/12/ea-single-…
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The life of an 89-year old billionaire. Daily martinis and betting on NFL games (WSJ)
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Only in America could an immigrant like Jensen Huang—who started by cleaning bathrooms, washing dishes and attending a state school—meet Curtis and Chris at Denny's, get VC funding and cofound the world's most consequential company Nvidia. Immigration is America's superpower.
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The probability it cost DeepSeek $6 million of spending (R&D) to create their models is ZERO if you actually read the paper but go ahead with the sensationalist narratives
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Intel's entire board should be replaced. Hardly any relevant successful technical semiconductor expertise in their backgrounds. Literally, a guy from Boeing and M&A finance person. Seriously? How can they assess what Intel needs?
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WSJ: “At Millennium, when a portfolio manager’s losses reach 5% of their allotted buying power, the amount of money that team is able to invest usually gets cut in half. When losses reach 7.5%, Millennium typically unwinds all of their trades and shows them the door” wsj.com/finance/investing/mi…
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Similar story in THE NVIDIA WAY. Intel tried to recruit top engineers from 3DLabs in Huntsville, AL, but required relocation. Jensen swooped in, offered jobs at Nvidia, letting them stay in Huntsville with families. Don't let bureaucracy hinder talent acquisition.
Replying to @Nexuist
I worked on the M series while at Apple. The main advantage that stuck out to me was actually that they were able to acquire dozens of top Intel engineers 5-10 years ago as Intel started struggling and making poor decisions. For example, Intel had a couple sites around the country with top talent and decided to shut these sites down. The reason? Intel wanted their talent more centrally located near headquarters, and they thought their engineers would be willing to relocate closer to headquarters and stick with the company. Apple discovered this, recruited all of these people, and opened new engineering facilities in these locations (and probably paid better). The result? They now had most subject matter experts from Intel without having to train or discover the engineering techniques themselves. The engineers then had freedom to create (Intel was tied down by corporate BS) and this was the fuel needed to blow Intel out of the water.
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They used the same list order too 🙄 Not cool
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Replying to @packyM
Not the same thing as reading the real thing
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I'll say it. Xbox dream died two days ago. They are destined to be next Sega. It will take years, but it is done. A long road to the inevitable decline. The best dev talent will simply not want to work there. It's over. Crazy because they spent $80 billion? to get to this outcome
Richest company in the world, Microsoft, closing Tango Gameworks after it released a banger like Hi-Fi Rush is classic Xbox. Shortsighted bean counter moves like this will be extremely detrimental to game developer talent retention. It's so obvious, so myopic and so maddening.
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Wow. One of the YouTube reviewers I respect the most gave Starfield a 4.5/10. He just published his video piped.video/P4vVxkbduMs?si=bXjw…
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2022 AAA backlog for PS5: Horizon Forbidden West, Gran Turismo 7, Last of Us Part I Remake, and God of War: Ragnarök. 2022 AAA backlog for Xbox: [crickets] Still boggles the mind when you think about it. Gaming is about having games to play. It's year 3 in the console cycle.
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Sony is going to win Christmas with God of War Ragnarok PS5 bundle. It's going to be a landslide. Unfortunately for Microsoft, Xbox has nothing AAA games wise for this holiday
Immerse yourself with 4K visuals, 3D Audio, haptic feedback, and more when you play #GodofWarRagnarök on PS5. The PS5 Console – God of War Ragnarök Bundle releases alongside the game on November 9: play.st/GOWR
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Redfall’s Metacritic at 62 is lower than Forspoken, Saints Row and Gotham Knights. Is this the biggest AAA flop in recent history?
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At 71 years old, Druckenmiller wakes up at 4:00 AM and goes to sleep at 8:30 PM.
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Groundhog Day. No AAA exclusives at Xbox launch, zero in 2022. Lackluster prior years. Long list of shuttered studios. New layoffs after mismanagement. Halo Infinite 10-year promise? Now, hardly any players on bad execution/little content. When will fans hold Xbox accountable?
Phil Spencer has acknowledged Xbox’s disappointing 2022. “Our commitment to our fans is that we need to have a steady release of great games... and we didn’t do enough of that" vgc.news/news/phil-spencer-a…
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In the past 24 hours, three current or former Google employees - Demis Hassabis, John Jumper, and Geoffrey Hinton - have won Nobel Prizes for advancing science and pushing humanity forward. DOJ: Break it up.
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How can OpenAI with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments? (Source: @BG2Pod ) Sam Altman: “First of all. We’re doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just, enough. I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I think people who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we could sell your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow and that not only will ChatGPT keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds, that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing, that AI that can automate science will create huge value. There are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous OpenAI is about to go out of business. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that. But we carefully plan. We understand where the technology, where the capability is going to grow and how the products we can build around that and the revenue we can generate. We might screw it up. This is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk along with that. A certain risk is if we don't have the compute, we will not be able to generate the revenue or make the models at this kind of scale.” Satya Nadella: “And let me just say one thing as both a partner and an investor. There is not been a single business plan that I've seen from OpenAI that they've put in and not beaten it. So in some sense, this is the one place where in terms of their growth and just even the business, it's been unbelievable execution, quite frankly. I mean, obviously, OpenAI, everyone talks about all the success and the usage and what have you. But even I'd say all up, the business execution has been just pretty unbelievable.”
Why AI is Underhyped and Isn't a Bubble Yet Here's why AI isn't a bubble today. I've distilled the data points and ideas from my previous columns and coverage. If you prefer facts and evidence-based reality over vibes and conflated narratives, enjoy! -Big Tech valuations are reasonable and leverage is low. We're at the beginning of multiple AI super product cycles in the year ahead -We are in the early innings of a technology computing shift to AI, the largest in decades. Think 1994 versus 1999. -Every credible source reports overwhelming demand for AI computing capacity. Where is the overcapacity glut? Nowhere. Valuations -During the dotcom bubble, top technology stocks like Microsoft and Cisco traded at 70 to 100 times forward P/E in December 1999 (remember these stocks went significantly higher in Q1 2000 too) versus today's top stocks (Nvidia etc.) trading at 30x with materially better underlying fundamental growth prospects. -The positive cycle sentiment remains in early stages. The Netscape IPO occurred in 1995, five years before the cycle peak. Is there any doubt the eventual OpenAI IPO will be a Netscape-type success? AI is only two to three years in. Think 1994 versus 1999. -The major buyers of AI infrastructure are the most profitable businesses in history, each generating roughly $100 billion in annual net profit. This is nothing like the debt-driven fiber optic network buildout of the dotcom era. Generational Secular Computing Shift -The global TAM for IT spending is $5-6 trillion annually. The entire technology stack needs restructuring and rearchitecting for AI because this new technology produces better results for corporations and consumers. You either use it or get disrupted by rivals who do. -Think electrification. Think the advent of the microprocessor and personal computer in the early 1980s. It's that significant. -The first growth wave was driven by natural language processing with LLMs and the application of parallel GPU computing. For the first time, computers could understand context from user language input. Previously, if you typed one character wrong in a query request, the computer would fail. GPUs allowed companies to apply incredible computing power to distill and compress knowledge from vast pools of unstructured data. -The current second wave of growth is driven by reasoning models that are significantly more accurate and useful by spending more time working on requests and searching dozens of websites. Reasoning models use 100 to 1,000 times more compute resources than prior models. The next wave will feature increased use of multi-modal models (audio/video) and agents (workflow automation, multi-step tasks). The following wave will be driven by physical AI, drug discovery, factory simulation, and robotics. AI Bubble Skeptic Arguments -Skeptics focus on simplistic narratives without nuance. It's up a lot, so it must be a bubble. OpenAI is losing a lot money! -This mirrors narratives from earlier this year when skeptics claimed the DeepSeek moment meant expensive training runs were no longer needed because DeepSeek was trained with only $6 million in spending (a false statement especially as literally in the same week China announced $140 billion in new AI investment). They also claimed DeepSeek's efficiency meant a computing glut was ahead. Both views proved categorically false and misleading as reasoning models (including DeepSeek!) and better AI models sparked an exponential wave of AI computing demand over the last nine months. -OpenAI's business model divides into two parts. Training new models requires enormous fixed investment, with each model driving roughly 10x more spending. Inference, serving already developed and built models, is extremely profitable. -Do you believe leading AI edge models will be a foundational technology transforming every business worldwide? The answer is yes. Companies view the risk as existential. -100% of Nvidia's engineers use AI coding assistants like Cursor. These AI assistants make engineers more productive by autocompleting code and automatically fixing bugs. All developers will use AI assistants in the future. Customer service? Same. AI will improve chatbots for customer service while giving live agents all the information they need from prior conversations and the latest product updates to improve service quality. Sales agents? Same. Product research and development? Same. AI will test product ideas and iterations while simulating every permutation. -This is happening and will continue happening. It’s inevitable. Every company will use AI in every part of their business. I spoke with executives from Nvidia, Dell, and Microsoft this month. It's occurring everywhere and accelerating. Circularity -Thus far, the vast majority of spending has come from profitable large technology companies. Now concerns about circular vendor spend is rising. -Despite what you hear, much of this hasn't occurred yet, and each gigawatt of spending depends on specific performance technical milestones on both sides (AMD-OpenAI deal). -Yes, the Oracle-OpenAI deal is real with hundreds of billions in RPO. Let's assume it's $300 billion over five years, requiring roughly $60 billion annually. -Alphabet/Google generates about $400 billion in sales with $120 billion profit. Meta generates $200 billion in sales with $73 billion profit. -Markets and investors look at the potential future not the present or past. The question becomes can OpenAI eventually become a technology giant using their AI model advantage and product execution abilities? ChatGPT's user base has grown from 0 to 800 million in three years. Can it reach 2 or 3 billion in another three years? It seems achievable. Like Google in its early years, ChatGPT currently has a scale advantage where the large user base has started a flywheel, enabling ChatGPT to iterate, improve, get more data, and A/B test better answers for users. Nvidia NVL72 Super Cycle – Pre-iPhone Moment -Dan Benton noted that technology investing revolves around product cycles. In just over two years, Nvidia has increased its quarterly data center revenue tenfold. As impressive as this is, the company will likely experience its best product cycle ever over the next few quarters, comparable to the iPhone launch. -Nvidia has recently begun shipping GB200/GB300 NVL72 servers in volume for the first time. Foxconn, a major AI server manufacturer for Nvidia, reports that current quarter AI server revenue will increase 170% year-over-year. -What is the NVL72? The first AI server with 72 GPUs in one server rack versus 8 GPUs in prior models. It offers 25 to 30 times better performance than the previous model and will enable more AI capabilities and use cases. Each server weighs 1.5 tons, contains 5,000 copper cables (2 miles), and offers unprecedented computing density. AI Demand Signs -EVERY credible industry source reports off-the-charts demand and overwhelming compute shortages everywhere. EVERY SINGLE ONE. -Microsoft's Scott Guthrie, head of the Cloud + AI group at Microsoft and member of the senior executive team, told me this month he sees an "explosion" of AI infrastructure usage ahead, driven by reasoning/agents and workflow automation. -TD Cowen: "Based on our checks, 3Q25 would represent the largest inflection in demand we have seen since the inception of the data center industry... a staggering ~7.4GW of U.S. data center capacity was leased by hyperscalers in 3Q25, which would exceed all capacity leased in 2024." Largest inflection in demand in history. Right now. More capacity in one quarter than all of last year. -TSMC's CEO says AI demand is "stronger than" they thought three months ago. Given the strength three months ago, that's remarkable. He then literally describes today's growth as "insane," strongly hinting at guidance and capex raises in January. -Four-year-old A100 GPUs remain profitable today on inference tasks. -Microsoft AI startup employee states: "Many days it feels my whole job is begging for GPUs. It's been that way since 2020 and hasn't become easier." -Anthropic's ARR grew from $1 billion to $7 billion in 10 months. -Crusoe CEO: "Every single customer we talk to is compute-constrained right now." -AI token consumption data points from Microsoft, OpenAI, and Google show exponential growth YTD. Conclusion -Hold on to your hats. We're just getting started. The next several quarters are going to be off the charts.
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Good luck Halo Infinite!
Now live: The 4K version of today's Horizon Forbidden West gameplay reveal: piped.video/wQATS4HOxdo
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The new PlayStation vs. Xbox console war starts this week. Sony will dominate Microsoft for years to come. It’s not going to be close. Here’s my latest column $MSFT $SNE bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei says compute is more than 80% of their expenses on a podcast. Salaries of 600 employees are much smaller expense
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Wait a second. Does Xbox have anything on the AAA console exclusive shelf for 2022 now?
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Despite the breathless praise for Microsoft's Xbox strategy from many, I'm going the other way. The two-tiered next-gen console launch is flawed and isn't going to work. Here's why $MSFT bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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I think people underestimate the power of incentives here. CIOs can’t risk another CrowdStrike outage. Otherwise, they will get fired. Can you imagine meeting with the CEO if this happens again? The incentives point to switching to another vendor. This isn’t an operating system.
“I will never trust CrowdStrike again”
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$137 billion? I thought they only needed $6 million
China's New AI Industry Development Action Plan (中国银行支持人工智能产业链发展行动方案) Will Provide 1 trillion yuan ($ 137 billion) to support its AI industry over the next five years 🇺🇸🇨🇳 This might be the most important Chinese AI policy initiative in 2025 so far. /1
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This is an important point I have written about. Why would any U.S. company spend billions for domestic capacity that won’t come online for three to four years when these Executive order tariffs are effectively temporary if the next President revokes them. This isn’t permanent legislation. Since the factory building is unlikely to happen, all the tariffs do is cause enormous pain and suffering to businesses and consumers, driving higher inflation and prices.
Imagine being a multinational trying to decide whether to respond to the tariffs by greenlighting a new plant in the US that is more expensive and won't come online for years without knowing what tariffs will be in effect in 4 years, or even in 4 months.
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PS5 Pro is cheap at $700. Like DLSS, PSSR is an image quality game-changer that will pay enormous dividends over the next three years as games take advantage of it.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Hello, GTA 6. To get an Nvidia card that can run comparable DLSS is $600 for graphics card alone
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It’s wild how many people criticized my 2020 columns years ago that predicted the Series S weak hardware two tier console strategy would come back to haunt Xbox
Xbox Series S Suffers from VRAM Limitations, Just Like 8GB GPUS trib.al/jhrgyTc
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👀 "CMA found a pattern of Microsoft acquiring development studios and making their upcoming games exclusive to Xbox" assets.publishing.service.go…
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Why AI is Underhyped and Isn't a Bubble Yet Here's why AI isn't a bubble today. I've distilled the data points and ideas from my previous columns and coverage. If you prefer facts and evidence-based reality over vibes and conflated narratives, enjoy! -Big Tech valuations are reasonable and leverage is low. We're at the beginning of multiple AI super product cycles in the year ahead -We are in the early innings of a technology computing shift to AI, the largest in decades. Think 1994 versus 1999. -Every credible source reports overwhelming demand for AI computing capacity. Where is the overcapacity glut? Nowhere. Valuations -During the dotcom bubble, top technology stocks like Microsoft and Cisco traded at 70 to 100 times forward P/E in December 1999 (remember these stocks went significantly higher in Q1 2000 too) versus today's top stocks (Nvidia etc.) trading at 30x with materially better underlying fundamental growth prospects. -The positive cycle sentiment remains in early stages. The Netscape IPO occurred in 1995, five years before the cycle peak. Is there any doubt the eventual OpenAI IPO will be a Netscape-type success? AI is only two to three years in. Think 1994 versus 1999. -The major buyers of AI infrastructure are the most profitable businesses in history, each generating roughly $100 billion in annual net profit. This is nothing like the debt-driven fiber optic network buildout of the dotcom era. Generational Secular Computing Shift -The global TAM for IT spending is $5-6 trillion annually. The entire technology stack needs restructuring and rearchitecting for AI because this new technology produces better results for corporations and consumers. You either use it or get disrupted by rivals who do. -Think electrification. Think the advent of the microprocessor and personal computer in the early 1980s. It's that significant. -The first growth wave was driven by natural language processing with LLMs and the application of parallel GPU computing. For the first time, computers could understand context from user language input. Previously, if you typed one character wrong in a query request, the computer would fail. GPUs allowed companies to apply incredible computing power to distill and compress knowledge from vast pools of unstructured data. -The current second wave of growth is driven by reasoning models that are significantly more accurate and useful by spending more time working on requests and searching dozens of websites. Reasoning models use 100 to 1,000 times more compute resources than prior models. The next wave will feature increased use of multi-modal models (audio/video) and agents (workflow automation, multi-step tasks). The following wave will be driven by physical AI, drug discovery, factory simulation, and robotics. AI Bubble Skeptic Arguments -Skeptics focus on simplistic narratives without nuance. It's up a lot, so it must be a bubble. OpenAI is losing a lot money! -This mirrors narratives from earlier this year when skeptics claimed the DeepSeek moment meant expensive training runs were no longer needed because DeepSeek was trained with only $6 million in spending (a false statement especially as literally in the same week China announced $140 billion in new AI investment). They also claimed DeepSeek's efficiency meant a computing glut was ahead. Both views proved categorically false and misleading as reasoning models (including DeepSeek!) and better AI models sparked an exponential wave of AI computing demand over the last nine months. -OpenAI's business model divides into two parts. Training new models requires enormous fixed investment, with each model driving roughly 10x more spending. Inference, serving already developed and built models, is extremely profitable. -Do you believe leading AI edge models will be a foundational technology transforming every business worldwide? The answer is yes. Companies view the risk as existential. -100% of Nvidia's engineers use AI coding assistants like Cursor. These AI assistants make engineers more productive by autocompleting code and automatically fixing bugs. All developers will use AI assistants in the future. Customer service? Same. AI will improve chatbots for customer service while giving live agents all the information they need from prior conversations and the latest product updates to improve service quality. Sales agents? Same. Product research and development? Same. AI will test product ideas and iterations while simulating every permutation. -This is happening and will continue happening. It’s inevitable. Every company will use AI in every part of their business. I spoke with executives from Nvidia, Dell, and Microsoft this month. It's occurring everywhere and accelerating. Circularity -Thus far, the vast majority of spending has come from profitable large technology companies. Now concerns about circular vendor spend is rising. -Despite what you hear, much of this hasn't occurred yet, and each gigawatt of spending depends on specific performance technical milestones on both sides (AMD-OpenAI deal). -Yes, the Oracle-OpenAI deal is real with hundreds of billions in RPO. Let's assume it's $300 billion over five years, requiring roughly $60 billion annually. -Alphabet/Google generates about $400 billion in sales with $120 billion profit. Meta generates $200 billion in sales with $73 billion profit. -Markets and investors look at the potential future not the present or past. The question becomes can OpenAI eventually become a technology giant using their AI model advantage and product execution abilities? ChatGPT's user base has grown from 0 to 800 million in three years. Can it reach 2 or 3 billion in another three years? It seems achievable. Like Google in its early years, ChatGPT currently has a scale advantage where the large user base has started a flywheel, enabling ChatGPT to iterate, improve, get more data, and A/B test better answers for users. Nvidia NVL72 Super Cycle – Pre-iPhone Moment -Dan Benton noted that technology investing revolves around product cycles. In just over two years, Nvidia has increased its quarterly data center revenue tenfold. As impressive as this is, the company will likely experience its best product cycle ever over the next few quarters, comparable to the iPhone launch. -Nvidia has recently begun shipping GB200/GB300 NVL72 servers in volume for the first time. Foxconn, a major AI server manufacturer for Nvidia, reports that current quarter AI server revenue will increase 170% year-over-year. -What is the NVL72? The first AI server with 72 GPUs in one server rack versus 8 GPUs in prior models. It offers 25 to 30 times better performance than the previous model and will enable more AI capabilities and use cases. Each server weighs 1.5 tons, contains 5,000 copper cables (2 miles), and offers unprecedented computing density. AI Demand Signs -EVERY credible industry source reports off-the-charts demand and overwhelming compute shortages everywhere. EVERY SINGLE ONE. -Microsoft's Scott Guthrie, head of the Cloud + AI group at Microsoft and member of the senior executive team, told me this month he sees an "explosion" of AI infrastructure usage ahead, driven by reasoning/agents and workflow automation. -TD Cowen: "Based on our checks, 3Q25 would represent the largest inflection in demand we have seen since the inception of the data center industry... a staggering ~7.4GW of U.S. data center capacity was leased by hyperscalers in 3Q25, which would exceed all capacity leased in 2024." Largest inflection in demand in history. Right now. More capacity in one quarter than all of last year. -TSMC's CEO says AI demand is "stronger than" they thought three months ago. Given the strength three months ago, that's remarkable. He then literally describes today's growth as "insane," strongly hinting at guidance and capex raises in January. -Four-year-old A100 GPUs remain profitable today on inference tasks. -Microsoft AI startup employee states: "Many days it feels my whole job is begging for GPUs. It's been that way since 2020 and hasn't become easier." -Anthropic's ARR grew from $1 billion to $7 billion in 10 months. -Crusoe CEO: "Every single customer we talk to is compute-constrained right now." -AI token consumption data points from Microsoft, OpenAI, and Google show exponential growth YTD. Conclusion -Hold on to your hats. We're just getting started. The next several quarters are going to be off the charts.
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Remember how VCs were so impressed @SBF_FTX played League of Legends during meetings? Apparently, SBF is worse at playing videogames than @AOC (she is a much higher ranked player)
lmao at how the cryptoscam nerd king was worse at video games than Rep. AOC: SBF:🥉Bronze III in League of Legends AOC: 🥈Silver III
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New Nvidia RTX 3090 cards are now selling below MSRP on StockX
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Another GOTY candidate from Sony. Their internal studios keep crushing it
I am VERY excited to say I played four hours of #HorizonForbiddenWest on PS5 and was so impressed by it! It takes the solid foundation of Zero Dawn and improves upon it in nearly every way from what I've seen. My preview: IGN: ign.com/articles/horizon-for… YT: piped.video/watch?v=IxyWcRq_…
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😬 Paul Tudor Jones on CNBC: "Clearly you don't want to own bonds and stocks. You start with that. .. it's going to be a very very very negative situation for either one .. You can't think of a worse macro environment .. for financial assets"
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About 8 years ago Netflix CEO Reed Hastings kindly responded to a short seller with a point by point intellectually honest, reasoned analysis without getting personal. Amazing read given how $NFLX executed since. Hastings is a role model for all executives businessinsider.com/netflix-…
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Palworld is outselling Suicide Squad, a AAA title that took over a decade to make with hundreds of developers. The gaming industry is doomed.
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Congrats to Google Labs and the NotebookLM team for creating one of the most compelling AI products yet. Great stuff. It offers a glimpse of AI’s future with Gemini’s longer context window capabilities and unlocking the siloed knowledge inside corporate internal databases
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Can anyone explain to me how a US dollar backed stable coin can offer 8% interest? I don't get it.
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Replying to @benitoz
Chipotle tho
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Microsoft basically paid nearly $70 billion for Call of Duty. Look at the Steam peak players stats for Sony’s Helldivers 2 vs. COD already
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AMD is no longer giving numerical details on data center GPU business this year. Not a good sign.
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Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei says AI models now cost $100 million to build. There are already $1 billion models in training. He thinks $10 billion to $100 billion models will happen by 2025, 2026, or 2027. [Tae: How many GPUs is that?]
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Replying to @KJovian
Engagement farming at its worst
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Twitter is going through another PlayStation is doomed sentiment cycle just like it did back in 2020. Meanwhile, in the real world of quality games output, managing games development, talent retention and console sales ...
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Imagine if gamers expressed a similar level of outrage for not having any AAA console exclusives to play in 2022 versus a minor price hike due to materials inflation
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Talk about parsing language. Seriously? Starfield 100% would have come out on Playstation if Bethesda wasn't acquired.
Phil Spencer says "No example in Bethesda of us pulling something away from the PlayStation Community." 20 seconds later says playing more games across more devices is where gaming is going. AS IF Redfall & Starfield wouldn't have been on PS5 had Xbox not paid to make them exclusive???😂 He really thinks all gamers are as uneducated at his fanbase @linakhanFTC @FTC @CMAgovUK
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Microsoft: Pay us a toll. Sony: Use any M.2 SSD drive you want.
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What a pro-consumer decision to go with an industry standard SSD over proprietary. PS5 owners can get 2TB expansion for $180, while Xbox is double the price.
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If Microsoft starts to penny-pinch on Call of Duty development costs by using more external contractors as they did with Halo, they will - mark my words - destroy the Call of Duty franchise just like they did with Halo.
Microsoft spent $69 billion in cash essentially for Call of Duty (No, I don't believe the mobile/PC narrative). To do this to Call of Duty studios, the crown jewel franchise, is extremely short sighted.
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Xbox Series X is more powerful than the PS5. The reason the vast majority of multiplatform ports run better on the PS5 is economics. Developers spend more time optimizing performance for the platform that generates more $ and is larger market. It's capitalism and the real world.
With several games running better on PS5 like Hogwarts Legacy & Atomic Heart in just last week. Game release announcements being held back cause of technical issues on the Xbox Series consoles. Do you think the tools will ever show the huge gains over PS5 that were promised?
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I'll take the under
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How amazing would it be if a video game actually looked like this?
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I’ll say it again. If you are leaving the reader or viewer with an impression it only cost DeepSeek $5.6 million to create this model you are misleading the audience. Hard stop.
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Remember when nearly all the pundits said Xbox would win this generation because of Game Pass?
I estimate Amazon sold PS5: 153,000 (+25% YOY) NSW: 56,000 (-61%) XBS: 32,000 (-16%) in November. PS5 had much better discounts and the Pro launch, Amazon did not sell the Mario Kart bundles at discounted prices like other retailers, and Xbox didn't try installbaseforum.com/threads…
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Jim Ryan was right all along about the unsustainability of the Game Pass model
Two main problems with the Game Pass model 1) Once you buy publisher for a big price talent leaves for studios that pay game sales metric driven bonuses. Game Pass day one means lower unit sales. 2) Gamers can sub for one month for AAA title and then cancel. Economics fall apart
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At least the chart matches the logo now 🤷‍♂️
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If you want to play the best exclusive games like Spider-Man, Ghost of Tsushima and God of War, you should buy a PS5. If you want to play the best-performing version of 3rd-party games like Assassin’s Creed and Dirt 5, you need to get a PS5. So, why would anyone choose Xbox now?
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HBO’s ‘The Last of Us’ lives up to the hype. It's the best show since 'Game of Thrones' Masterful execution. Even though I knew what would happen next, I teared up with every episode. Fans will love many cameos/easter eggs. A tour de force. Y’all are in for a treat this Sunday.
Replying to @firstadopter
My latest newsletter: "HBO’s ‘The Last of Us’ Is a Masterpiece—and a Triumph for Videogames" barrons.com/articles/hbo-the…
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PS5 now outselling Xbox by a factor of 126X in Japan. Remember those articles and influencer tweets making a big deal out of Xbox beating PS5 in Japan?
PlayStation 5 outsells the Switch in Japan for the 5th week in a row! 1⃣ PS5 - 91,729 2⃣ Switch - 61,384 3⃣ PS4 - 1,646 4⃣ Xbox Series - 727
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The reality about Series S was obvious from the beginning. I’m still incredulous at how certain developers were treated for telling the truth near the console launch. Though it is funny how some tweets from iD employees disappeared weeks later after Microsoft acquired Bethesda
I feel Larian's pain on Series S. Its not about "just optimize at the end" LOL. Naaah. You have to take into account the technical limitations from the beginning of development. Nobody really wants to think of that when you start making your game, when everything is possible
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Replying to @Teich50
It is year-over-year
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Replying to @JezCorden
If only if there was another studio owned by Microsoft that has successfully made an amazing and successful Fallout game …
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Remember when the genius pundits told us console gaming is dead? The reality is it was only dying for Xbox. Sony and Nintendo are crushing it.
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Nvidia's Blackwell page literally talks about 30X inference speedup versus prior generation GPU when using Mixture of Experts AI model and lower floating point precision approach (both of which DeepSeek uses). Weird how no one freaked out then?
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Two main problems with the Game Pass model 1) Once you buy publisher for a big price talent leaves for studios that pay game sales metric driven bonuses. Game Pass day one means lower unit sales. 2) Gamers can sub for one month for AAA title and then cancel. Economics fall apart
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Microsoft says AI demand is growing faster than their ability to bring AI data center capacity online, so they will have AI capacity shortages beyond June. The AI infrastructure bears are weeping right now
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PlayStation 5 outselling Xbox Series X/S by 6 to 1 ratio in Japan lifetime to date. I remember when people were flipping out about Xbox outselling PS5 for ONE week during supply shortage without mentioning that context
This weeks Japan Famitsu Hardware Sales! • Switch sold 74.6k • PS5 sold 44.1k • PS4 sold 1,099 units • XBS sold 1,052 units PS5 sales seem to have a new average at around 40k! Switch sales down but still decent! Xbox numbers still very low! Supply issues remain!
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Sounds like Sequoia partners were mesmerized from beginning & had blinders on. If I found out a founder was playing a videogame at same time while raising money, I would say that’s a red flag that he didn’t care about investors capital - def not something to get excited about
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Replying to @mgsiegler
I will defer to you. Not going to put myself through that again
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Sony reported 82% year-over-year sales growth for PlayStation 5 consoles during the December quarter, while Microsoft reported a 13% year-over-year revenue decline for Xbox hardware. One is better than the other.
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CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator tells me A100s are sold out across the space. He says when a large cluster of H100s came off contract, they were able to get a renewal within 5% of original contract price. "Our A100s are sold out. Our L40s are sold out. Our H100s are sold out. Our H200s are sold out. They come off contract, they get scooped back up," he said.
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Replying to @rohitdotmittal
I can assure you Nvidia employees work more than 4-5 hours per day.
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The most important news of the day is that the grandmother's $800K inheritance all-in Intel Reddit guy is making a big comeback.
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😳 Imagine the logistics involved to hire so many people in such a short time period $AMZN call: "We welcomed 250,000 permanent full-time and part-time employees just in Q3 and have already added about 100,000 more in the first month of Q4"
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Gamers do not buy consoles for specs. They buy to play their favorite franchises. Sony crushes Microsoft in this department, esp. with Halo's problems. Last of Us, Ghost of Tsushima, Horizon, God of War, Spiderman, the list is endless. PS5 will have the games people want to play
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DeepSeek is an efficient distilled model, but the development $ numbers people are internalizing here are silly. They aren’t considering prior research and development work, which is obviously considerable and highly likely to include the use of current AI frontier models. You can’t just cite a final perfect training run cost. Next round of test time compute AI development will also require … a lot more compute, which DeepSeek already admits is hurting them. Any algorithm and capability improvements create more demand. The corollaries are memory size and x86 compute (Did it stop with 640K or 286 or Pentium P5?) in tech history. AI is still in the embryonic development stage. Current model technology is not the static endpoint, especially as test time compute advances.
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Broadcom CEO says the company’s top three customers continue to “invest aggressively” in new frontier AI models. All three are aiming to build ONE MILLION AI chip clusters by 2027. AI trade is not dead. Stock up 19% now.
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