Open Source bi-weekly convo w @altcap & @bgurley on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism

Silicon Valley
Is @Tesla about to pass @Waymo? Tesla FSD 13 = 1000x safety improvement (MPCI) in 2024 alone?! 💥@bgurley @altcap @FredaDuan
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Reposting important $TSLA @elonmusk pay package convo from Ep4. Not just important for Elon - but important for rule of law, business contract, and free enterprise. As they say - pay the man - if the package was lopsided at all - it was against Elon! 🇺🇸🇺🇸 @altcap @bgurley
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BG2. Ep 37. NVDA! $400 B OpenAI Deal; $4 Trillion AI Capex Build Out; ASICS & Comp Moat; Trump, Elon, China, H1Bs & more. @altcap @_clarktang @bgurley (0:00) Intro (0:37) The Year in AI Recap (3:24) OpenAI Stargate & Nvidia Investment (8:41) Nvidia Accelerated Compute TAM (18:55) $NVDA ROI – Glut or Bubble? (27:45) Roundtripping Claims (31:10) Annual Release Cadence & Extreme Co-design (40:45) Future of ASICs & Economics (53:47) Nvidia's Competitive Moat (56:55) Elon, X.ai & Colossus 2 (58:47) Sovereign AI & Global Buildout (1:02:21) The AI Administration (1:07:43) Chinese AI Chips & NVIDIA’s Role (1:17:24) H-1B, Talent, & the American Dream (1:29:33) Invest America & American Right to Rise (1:37:40) The Future Ahead
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BG2. AI Compute Landscape ‘25-26, scaling intelligence, chip competition, memory tech, inference time reasoning & more. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley feat @dylan522p
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🙏🙏💥💥🎄🎄
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Double Episode of @BG2Pod dropping tomorrow morning with the legendary Jensen Huang. From competitive moats and “insane demand” to inference time reasoning, 1 B x inference, @elonmusk & the Memphis Supercluster. Deep and dense - not to be missed! @bgurley @altcap 🔥🔥
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BG2. All things AI w @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥@bg2pod @altcap -- (00:00) Intro (02:28) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI (03:19) The Nonprofit Structure and Its Impact (05:46) Health, AI Security, and Resilience (07:50) Models, Exclusivity, and Distribution (08:58) Revenue Sharing and AGI Milestones (11:38) OpenAI’s Growth and Compute Commitments (15:21) Compute Constraints and Scaling (21:27) The Future of AI Devices and Consumer Use (24:31) Regulation and the Patchwork Problem (28:01) Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond (37:10) Microsoft’s Strategic Value from OpenAI (57:15) The Economics of AI and SaaS (1:04:28) Productivity, Jobs, and the Age of AI (1:10:43) Reindustrialization of America
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As said on pod - it’s all about rate of change! Waymo building a tailored, city-based robotaxi solution. TSLA building FSD for ALL driving. Robotaxi a subset of the other. Led to radically diff approaches & outcomes. $TSLA FSD 1000x in 2024 and is extending its lead. 💥
Tesla FSD 13.2 vs Waymo! I had FSD and Waymo do the same drive — same start point, same end point. Both arrived with 0 interventions but the Tesla had fewer awkward moments and arrived in 15m40s while the Waymo took 43 minutes — nearly 3x longer.
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The Washington leviathan is convulsing over the @DOGE effort to cut $1 T in inefficient spend which gets us back to the 2019 Baseline - off this reckless covid high. Did anybody truly believe in 2019 we were ruining the country because spending was too low?! @altcap @bgurley 🇺🇸
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BG2. Ep 17. Double $NVDA! System Level Comp Moat, “Insane Demand”, Inference Explosion 1 B x, Memphis Supercluster, OpenAI, X.ai & more. @altcap @_clarktang @bgurley (00:00) Intro (1:50) The Evolution of AGI and Personal Assistants (06:03) NVIDIA's Competitive Moat (15:51 ) The Future of Inference and Training in AI (19:01) Building the AI Infrastructure (31:35) Inventing a New Market in an AI Future (38:40) The Impact of OpenAI (43:25) The Future of AI Models (46.44) X.ai and Memphis Supercluster (51:21) Distributed Computing and Inference Scaling (55:54) Inference Time Reasoning and Its Importance (01:00:46) AI's Role in Growing Business and Improving Productivity (01:08:00) Ensuring Safe AI Development (01:12:31) The Balance of Open Source and Closed Source AI
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Jensen on @DavidSacks & @sriramk. “Can you imagine if we didn’t have a pro growth, pro diffusion, pro energy administration at this critical moment in time?!” 🇺🇸🚀
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Halloween Pod dropping later today! @altcap 🎃🎃
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It’s been too long - we apologize - pod dropping this afternoon! 👊🚀@altcap @bgurley
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BG2 Ep4. Pod drop. $TSLA FSD 12 Deep Dive, Open vs Closed AI Model Debate, Delaware vs Elon & Tech Market Update 💥👊 @altcap @bgurley
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BG2. Grok 3, AI Evals vs Product, China, Public Market Pull Back & more. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley (00:00) Intro (01:40) Grok 3 (05:55) Grok’s Leverage of X Platform (07:25) AI Consumer Market & SEO (23:04) AI Memory (26:15) AI Voice (29:05) Future AI Assets (33:29) AI Acceleration in China (36:09) Regulatory Challenges (37:46) AI CapEx and Investing Dynamics (48:38) Government Spending + DOGE (1:00:51) Golden State Warriors
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BG2. Public Market Predictions; Rates & Inflation; @DOGE, Budget Analysis, CES, AI Compute & More. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley
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BG2 Ep15. Deep Dive Nuclear from INSIDE Diablo Canyon 👊💥@altcap @bgurley (00:00) Intro (04:14) Maureen Zawalick | VP at Diablo Canyon (06:13) The Need for Diablo (10:07) The Importance of Nuclear Power (15:50) License Renewal and the Future of Diablo (18:39) Hope for Expanding Nuclear Power (25:22) Nuclear Waste (30:29) Cost Differential: US vs China (38:56) Factors Contributing to Cost Differential (45:07) Implications of China’s Nuclear Leadership (47:42) Nuclear Energy and AI Supremacy (50:58) The Innovation Gap and Gen 4 Reactors (57:27) Overcoming Challenges (01:03:45) A Call for Government Support
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BG2 Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Robotaxi, Trump Public Mkts & more. 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley (00:00) Intro (02:00) AI Scaling Laws (05:54) Implications of AI Scaling Trends (12:20) The Future of Inference and Data Quality (17:51) AI Memory and Actions (21:47) National Full Self-Driving Regulation (23:14) FSD 13 (29:41) Market Disruption: Winners and Losers in the Auto Industry (31:18) The Future of OEM’s (40:41) Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) (54:47) Tech Market Check
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BG2. Azure, $10B Inference Revs, Scaling, OpenAI, Agents, & more. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley @satyanadella
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BG2 Coatue’s Laffont Brothers. Breaking Down all things AI, public mkts, VC markets, Macro, US Debt, Crypto, IPO's, & More 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley
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Incredibly important discussion about the path forward for America. Who thinks we should have @DavidSacks on to continue the conversation? 🇺🇸🇺🇸
I truly believe the idea of "winning the AI war" is misplaced, unachievable, and will lead to horrible and ineffective policy. More below ...
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The Chinese are already frontier capable in AI & accelerating! @altcap & @bgurley argue the US must accelerate our own efforts rather than obsess with slowing China down. 🚀🇺🇸
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BG2. AI Bubble or Buildout? $3T CapEx, Stablecoin Boom, and Gurley’s Next Chapter 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley @BG2Pod (00:00) Intro (02:00) Two Years of BG2 (03:45) Bill Stepping Back to Write His Book (07:00) The AI CapEx Bubble? (13:00) Nvidia’s Investments: Healthy or Hype? (19:15) $3 Trillion CapEx: Are We Overbuilding AI? (25:30) OpenAI’s Race for Escape Velocity (28:30) AI Regulation: State Patchwork Madness (30:30) Why Federal Preemption Is Critical (35:00) Stablecoin Surge: $18T in Settlements (36:45) Gurley’s Crypto Conversion (38:30) From PIX to FedNow: The Future of Digital Money (41:00) Coinbase, Circle, and the 4% Yield Revolution (46:00) Brad on Invest America (Trump Accounts) (49:00) Implementation Timeline & Treasury Update (50:30) Bill’s Book: Running Down a Dream (53:15) The Great Career Reset: Passion vs. Grind (55:00) Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework (57:00) Who the Book Is For (59:00) Gurley’s Next Mission
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BG2 E:03. Pod drop. $NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, Impact of AI on Big Tech, Earnings & Macro.💥👊 @altcap @bgurley
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Enjoy another episode of BG2 pod w @levie!
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BG2 w Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley @MichaelDell
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BG2 Ep13. Silicon Valley’s Political 180, META’s Open AI disruption, Wiz IPO, TSLA FSD 12.5, Crowdstrikesout & more. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley (00:00) Intro (01:38) The Perceived Political Realignment in Silicon Valley (18:02) Engagement Between Silicon Valley and Washington (27:21) Meta's Open Source Strategy (405b) (47:37) Post-Mortem on the COVID-19 Pandemic (58:37) Wiz IPO and Acquisitions (01:03:37) The Impact of AI on Self-Driving Cars (01:10:33) Lessons from the CrowdStrike Incident (01:16:11) Spotify's Success under Daniel Ek
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Is SaaS over? @Benioff
Watch Nadella describe SaaS apps as nothing more than a CRUD database with some business logic, but once the business logic moves to AI agents, SaaS is over:
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Time to learn. 💥💥💥
Look forward to having @satyanadella & @sama on @BG2Pod tomorrow. The deal. The skeptics. The re-industrialization of America. Power. Chips. Models. Agents. AGI. Regulation. Jobs. And more… 🧐🚀🇺🇸
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BG2. Liberation Day, Tariffs, US v China Open Source, OpenAI Fundraise, $CRWV, TikTok 👊💥@altcap @bgurley Chapters: (00:00) Intro (02:20) Liberation Day & Tariffs (19:18) US Open Source vs China Open Source (34:34) OpenAI Fundraise (52:25) Coreweave IPO & AI Demand (01:04:03) Rumors on TikTok deal
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BG2. NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT 👊💥@altcap @bgurley (00:00) Intro (02:21) Market Uncertainty (07:28) Globalism and Tariff Policies (25:07) $GOOG Acquisition of Wiz + M&A Environment (40:33) $NVDA Market Position (55:37) Government Regulations & Impact on AI (1:04:45) Consumer AI Demand (1:10:33) AI Unit Economics
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BG2. STARGATE - Fact & Fiction; Elon vs. Sam; TikTok, Trump Exec Orders; DOGE; Market Valuations & more. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley Chapters: (00:00) Intro (01:21) Stargate (15:07) Dylan Patel and Semianalysis take on Stargate (17:56) Stargate’s Impact on AI Competitive Landscape (29:03) DeepSeek (32:03) Special Guest Rene Haas (49:46) DeepSeek continued (51:53) Trumps Executive Orders & Regulatory Freeze (54:10) Coordination in AI Legistlation (59:38) US National Debt and Balancing the Budget (1:01:08) TikTok (1:05:48) Tech Check
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Taking BG2 on the road next week - deep dive on the national strategic imperative around nuclear power - recording live from Diablo Canyon. DMs open. 🇺🇸💥 @bgurley @altcap
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When you sell stock to 20 massive investors with thousands of underlying investors - we used to call these things “IPOs.” 🤣🤣
Databricks is on track to raise a record $9.5+ billion round at $60B valuation tcrn.ch/49z29Lz
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BG2 Ep11. Coatue Conference Recap, OpenAI IPO, Tesla Shareholder Vote, ISS Controversy, Tech, Markets, & more. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley
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As predicted on pod over last 4 episodes - a big China deal was the most likely outcome & huge tailwind for the global economy bc Trump is a “pragmatic realist” & self-described “deal junkie” rather than a “values” locked China Hawk. No decoupling. Fair trade for the win. 🇨🇳🇺🇸
Investors are waking up to some huge news from China: A trade deal is coming. China’s Vice Minister of Commerce just announced that US and China reached a "consensus" on key trade issues. This INCLUDES export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related measures, anti-drug cooperation, trade expansion, and US Section 301 fees. On top of this, US Treasury Secretary Bessent says China is "ready" to make a trade deal with the US after 2 days of negotiations. Bessent has added that China wants to make "substantial" US soybean purchases. All while President Trump says he is hoping for a "complete deal" with China this week. As we said on October 10th, President Trump's 100% tariff on China is very likely to NOT go into effect. We believe a trade deal is imminent.
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As discussed on the Pod, this is a corporate IQ test. Sadly ISS & Glass Lewis fail. 🧐🧐
Tesla shareholders would be nuts to vote against the Elon voting / pay package that only pays out IF shareholders massively win. Passive investors should also look past ISS / Glass Lewis & vote in favor. Its obvious only @elonmusk can achieve this critical moonshot! 🇺🇸🚀
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Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI in enterprise LLM API market share. OpenAI fell from 50% in late 2023 to 25% by mid-2025, which shows that brand alone does not hold share once real workloads start. Anthropic now leads enterprise LLM API usage with 32%, while OpenAI has 25%, pointing to a real shift in how companies pick vendors. Enterprise LLM API spend hit $8.4B in the first half of 2025. Anthropic’s push on data controls, compliance, and clean integration with existing systems won trust, and that trust tends to decide renewals and expansions. Claude’s recent lines, including stronger reasoning and coding, helped too, with developer code-gen share around 42% for Anthropic vs 21% for OpenAI. Usage is shifting to inference at scale, so uptime, latency, and incident response matter more than raw benchmark wins. Vendor switching stayed low at 11%, and 66% of teams just upgraded within the same vendor, so any share gain here is hard won. Google sits near 20% and Meta near 9%, so this is not a 2-player market, and strengths differ by use case like agents, code, or retrieval. Buyers now weigh cost per token, data residency, auditability, SOC reports, and fine-grained controls as much as model quality. Multi-vendor setups are rising because they reduce lock-in and let teams route tasks to the best model for that job.
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BG2. Inside China’s Tech Surge: EVs, AI, and How America Can Compete 👊💥@bgurley
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BG2. China Tech, AI Immigration, Trading Rare Earths for Chips, Tariffs, Market Check & More 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley
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BG2 Ep16. Nuclear, OpenAI Breaking Out, State of VC, Public Mkts & more. 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley (00:00) Intro (00:36) The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance (08:15) AI Fast and Furious (11:19) OpenAI Strawberry o1 (17:15) Inference Constraints (20:18) Open AI Breaking Out (35:00) State of VC (43:52) “Quasi-Public Companies” (48:32) Liquidity / IPOs (58:41) Tech Market Check
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Truth. $TSLA appealing to DE Supreme Court - “This ruling, if not overturned, means that judges and plaintiffs’ lawyers run Delaware companies rather than their rightful owners – the shareholders." 💥💥 @altcap @bgurley
Some are asking me why I’m so certain that the Delaware Supreme Court will overturn Chancellor Kathaleen Saint Jude McCormick’s ruling against Tesla (and @elonmusk ‘s 2018 compensation package that was approved by $TSLA shareholders *again* earlier this year). If you are unconvinced, listen to this podcast from 6 months ago *and then* tell me there’s any chance the Supreme Court will let her open Pandora’s Box. Video credit: @BG2Pod
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On E26 of @BG2Pod on Feb 5 @bgurley & @altcap declared the Golden Age of Uncertainty - higher political, economic, and technology uncertainty means higher discount rates / lower multiples in the markets against a backdrop of fairly robust valuations. Worth a re-listen. 💥
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BG2 Coatue Pt2. Open AI’s @kevinweil Dives into all things ChatGPT. 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley
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BG2. Ep18. NVDA Part 2 - breaking down Jensen convo from EP17. Analysis of strengths and vulnerabilities w @altcap @bgurley @sundeep (00:00) Intro and Initial Reactions to Jensen (04:32) NVIDIA's Position in Accelerated Compute (05:11) CUDA and NVIDIA’s Competitive Moat (12:53) Challenges to NVIDIA’s Competitive Advantage (18:22) Future Outlook on Inference (24:46) The Insatiable Demand for AI and Hardware (27:12) Elon Musk' and X.ai (31:47) Scaling AI Models and Clusters (34:17) Economic Models and Funding in AI (39:08) The Future of AI Pricing and Consumption Models (42:25) Memory, Actions, and Intelligent Agents (47:08) The Role of AI in Business Productivity (51:03) Open vs Closed Models in AI Development
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Wild improvements since @altcap declared in April 2024 is the “ChatGPT Moment” for FSD. Now he is saying 2025 will be the same for Tesla Robotaxi. As reported on @CNBC, Altimeter sold their long held $UBER position & loaded up on even more $TSLA. 👀
Tesla self-driving is getting extremely good
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BG2 Ep8. Pod’s Up! AI Models; Data Scaling; Enterprise & Personal AI 💥👊 @altcap @bgurley @sundeep (00:00) Intro (01:10) $META Llama 3 (20:40) Enterprise AI (36:50) Personal AI (50:07) $TSLA Earnings Call & Rideshare (52:10) Tech Check
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E:02 dropping this week (bi-weekly)! To celebrate, a little Sunday night nugget from E:01. “I’m a huge proponent of open source bc if ideas can be shared there is zero cost but the potential for nearly infinite lift which drives human prosperity.” @mattwridley @altcap @bgurley
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Does major ISS defeat in $TSLA shareholder vote signal end to corporate ISIS? @bgurley @altcap
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Will US Chips Act $$ be successful in helping build competitive chips fabs in the US? A must listen talk at MIT by Morris Chang - Founder of TSMC - about the structural challenges to onshoring modern chip production. BG2 Ep3. @bgurley @altcap @SecRaimondo @NVIDIAGTC
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BG2. AI / Middle East 🚀, China, Tariffs, Reconciliation, Trump Accts aka Invest America 👊💥🇺🇸 @altcap @bgurley
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BG2 Ep5. Pod drop. Deep Dive on Stock Comp, Google Gemini / Apple, TikTok US & the New AI Cold War, MSFT / Inflection & VC Valuations for LLMs 💥👊 @altcap @bgurley
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Deep Seek, Stargate, IPOs, $UBER, $TSLA - @bgurley dropping @BG2Pod 🔥 w @ScottWapnerCNBC on @CNBCClosingBell. And representing w the red glasses. ❤️ @altcap
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BG2 Ep6. Pod drop. Deep Dive on AI Demand / Supply - Models, Agents, the $2T Compute Build Out, Need for More Nuclear & More… 💥👊 @altcap @bgurley
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Jensen Huang now believes the data center market will be $2 T over the next 4-5 yrs - do you agree? Will $NVDA maintain 50+% market share? Ahead of NVDA’s massive GTC event this week, we flash back at the $NVDA break down on Ep3. 👊🔥 @bgurley @altcap
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BG2 E:03 Dropping Tomorrow. $NVDA, @Sama $7T & more! @altcap @bgurley
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BG2 Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling, Search GPT & more. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley
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Must listen on the Global AI Arms race & the decision to repeal the Diffusion Rule & sell chips to China. 🇺🇸🚀💥
bg2clips
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BG2 Ep7. Pod’s Up! The Great IPO Debate - Optimal Size / Time; Tesla Robotaxi vs Uber; Tech Earnings & Rising Rates. 💥👊 @altcap @bgurley
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BG2. China Open Source Models vs. US, Compute Arms Race, Winning Global Trade & More 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley @sundeep
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$UBER getting real on stock comp. Adjusted ebitda that excludes SBC is a dangerous fiction that leads to excess spending. What you pay your employees is a real expense whether stock, cash, btc or cans of beer. Ignore at your own peril. Flatter is faster. Leaner is better. 🧐
Kudos to @dkhos and the entire $UBER team on moving to guidance metrics that are inclusive of stock-based compensation and dilution: @Uber has done a great job of reducing dilution as they've scaled, but this next step of aligning reported metrics with the actual drivers of LT value creation is key. Highly recommend everybody go back to last year to the @BG2Pod with $BKNG Chairman Bob Mylod where @altcap and @bgurley did a deep dive on stock-based comp, dilution, and shareholder alignment. Also the OG BG2 Pod with @Jason and @dkhos on staying fit and scaling growth: nitter.app/altcap/status/17458265…
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BG2. Deepseek, Open Source, Tariffs, DOGE, Market Impact & more. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley Chapters: (00:00) Intro (03:20) DeepSeek & Open Source (37:03) Trump Tariffs (50:31) DOGE (01:04:19) Tech and Political Uncertainty
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As @bgurley was saying on E13 - Starlink is literally tailor made for rural deployment - but the US government wasted $40 B instead! #regulatorycapture
During a fireside chat yesterday, SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell confirmed that Starlink can provide everybody in rural and semi-rural U.S. with high-speed broadband internet connectivity for a very small fraction of the price of laying down a fiber optic cable.
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To win the AI race we must have an all of the above natl strategy - production, storage & transmission. Congrats @basepowerco on $1 B raise to capture gigs of underutilized US production through distributed storage that solve a real home problem & help power the AI frontier. 🇺🇸🚀
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Why Meta is likely to reduce the $20 B / yr spend on Reality Labs and triple down on Meta AI / glasses as the new phone / compute platform. @bgurley @altcap
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BG2 Ep9. Pod’s Up! Her, GPT-4o, Astra, Multi Modal, China Tariffs, the Tech Markets, and more 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley (00:00) Intro (00:40) Open AI Launches GPT-4 Omni (10:29) Chat GPT-4o Benchmarks (14:11) Voice as the New GUI (20:01) Breakout Power of ChatGPT (22:09) Consumer AI vs Enterprise AI Landscape (27:51) AI Disruption (35:45) Regulation & Industrial Policy (43:47) China Tariffs (53:15) Tech Market Check
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America is accelerating. Its extraordinary to watch the positive shift in public opinion and dramatic increase in investment in clean nuclear energy. And great to see our tech industry leading the charge with open minds and big $$. @bgurley @DiabloCanyonCA
Google have signed a deal to build 7 nuclear reactors to provide 500MW of power for their AI data centers, coming online in 2030-35
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Ai, Crytpo, Science & Tech from a Silicon Valley legend who knows how to get it done. Congrats @DavidSacks! 💥🇺🇸🚀@bgurley @altcap
Boom! Congrats @DavidSacks! This bodes incredibly well for the future of American AI, crypto, science & tech. Whatever your differences, David is brilliant & cares deeply about Team America. Time to build!! 💥🇺🇸
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Nvidia $5 T. @altcap has been major shareholder since Jan 2023. Stock has gone from split adjusted $120 to $2100 per share. Receipts. Pod Alpha. @theallinpod 🧐
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As discussed on pod - V13 major step function and rate of change is key variable & even more impressive. Voice as input?! Multi modal. 3x context length. @FredaDuan @bgurley
v13.2 has started rolling out to limited external customers.
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America is by far the greatest system of risk-seeking entrepreneurship & venture capital in the world. China realized this & leveraged capitalism to 100x their economy since 1980. Europe fell off the growth cliff during the same period of time. 🧐
“There is no innovation without speculation. No electric vehicles, no Covid vaccines, no OpenAI. No Amazon, Tesla, SpaceX or Moderna. No railroads in the 19th century or internet in the 21st. Every one of those started with a bet — sometimes one that seemed absurd at the time.”
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LLMs & the challenge of low switching costs. Data to the model or model to the data? Seems advantage currently goes to data as THE source of gravity. A little snack from Ep5 - new pod drop soon! @altcap @bgurley 🔥
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To win at AI you must marry bits & atoms. You must be able to build the most complex systems to train & run the models - and Elon is our best builder. “He is a supercomputer - a GPT - he is one big GPU.” @elonmusk @xai
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BG2 Ep10. Week-end Pod. Huge Late Stage $$, AI Hype Cycle, Is Software Dead? Tech, Markets, & more. 👊💥@altcap @bgurley
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BG2 Thanksgiving Speed Round: China, DOGE, Newsom v. Ro, FedNow, tariffs, AI Open Source, Buffett Giving, Invest America & more. 🦃🍁@altcap @bgurley
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A couple hour $NVDA banger dropping today or tomorrow. From the OpenAI deal (yes including bubbles & round tripping) to ASICS TPUs & competitive moats, to export controls & competing w China, to H1Bs the America Dream & Invest America and yes Elon too. 🇺🇸🫡 @BG2Pod
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Friday afternoon snack from BG2. Greatest hits from 2024 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley
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Looks like @altcap was not too far off in nuclear pod suggesting that @X, $NVDA, $MSFT, etc could sponsor new reactors! @bgurley 💥🇺🇸🚀
Larry Ellison in Founder mode: "I probably say bizarre things all the time, but this is big. We’re designing a data center north of a gigawatt in a location with building permits for 3 small modular nuclear reactors to power it. That’s how crazy things are getting." $ORCL $nvda
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America has always been & must remain the land of hope & opportunity for the best entrepreneurial immigrants from around the world. Jensen was born in Taipei Taiwan & @elonmusk in Pretoria South Africa. Together they created trillions in value that greatly advantaged 🇺🇸🇺🇸. 🚀
America’s greatness is no accident. No nation’s DNA & founding systems are as intrinsically entrepreneurial & incentive aligned as America. Our competitive advantage is increasing bc innovation is an exponential curve resulting from systems that compound. 🇺🇸🇺🇸@InvestAmerica24
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Sounds like the BG2 discussion / debate last week about the infinite game. Play games that are winnable - and avoid distractions that slow you down. @bgurley @altcap
Listen carefully to Jensen explaining how to win the AI race. This is at the prestigious Hill and Valley Forum 2025, held at the U.S. Capitol.
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BG2 Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections, Public Mkts & more. 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley @jaminball (00:00) Intro (00:52) Bill’s Dad | from Nasa to SpaceX (06:20) State of VC and Incentives w/ Jamin Ball (12:31) Implications of Overcapitalization (25:08) The Future of Power Law Returns (38:28) The Impact of AI on Investment Strategies (46:00) Future of AI and Capital Expenditure (52:21) Market Reactions to 2024 Election (1:00:45) Evolution of Search and AI Integration
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BG coming in hot from the Middle East. Accelerate or die. 🇺🇸🚀 @DavidSacks
Been in Riyadh, Doha & AD and good news is that the AI decelerationist hawks are losing - their scare tactics were about to hand global AI dominance to the Chinese. But the President wants the world to run on American AI so is accelerating starting in the Middle East. 🇺🇸🚀
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Looks like @altcap was not too far off in nuclear pod suggesting that @X, $NVDA, $MSFT, etc could sponsor new reactors! @bgurley 💥🇺🇸🚀
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100% - as discussed on pod. Time to accelerate US compute, models & applications around the world. 🇺🇸🚀 @bgurley @altcap
TO WIN THE AI RACE, THE AI DIFFUSION RULE MUST GO The Trump administration has announced its intention to repeal the Biden administration’s AI Diffusion Rule. As the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) confirmed in a statement yesterday: “The Biden AI rule is overly complex, overly bureaucratic, and would stymie American innovation. We will be replacing it with a much simpler rule that unleashes American innovation and ensures American AI dominance.” This is an excellent decision by Secretary of Commerce @howardlutnick and Under Secretary of BIS Jeff Kessler. There were several major problems with the Biden Diffusion Rule: 1. Overreach of Export Control Authority First, the rule marked an unprecedented—and arguably unlawful—expansion of export control authority. Under the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA) of 2018, the President is empowered to restrict exports of dual-use technologies that have both civilian and military applications. That authority has been used to restrict the sale of advanced semiconductors to China, a policy with broad bipartisan support. But the Diffusion Rule went significantly further. It required nearly all global sales of high-end GPUs—even to trusted allies—to obtain export licenses or fit into a narrow set of license exemptions. This forced much of the global data center and AI infrastructure industry to seek approval from Washington, creating a bottleneck that chilled legitimate, non-sensitive commerce. 2. Bureaucratic Allocation of Compute The rule imposed detailed numerical caps on how many chips and how much computing power foreign entities could acquire and operate. This was a radical departure from market-based allocation principles, placing the U.S. government in the position of rationing compute power globally. It effectively turned Washington into a central planner for the global AI industry. 3. Alienation of U.S. Allies The rule also strained relationships with key allies by arbitrarily dividing countries into compliance “tiers,” labeling many friendly nations as second-class partners. This kind of regulatory hierarchy undermines trust and risks pushing allies toward non-American technology alternatives. 4. Lack of Due Process The Diffusion Rule was issued just five days before the end of the Biden administration without a meaningful public comment or review period. Given its sweeping scope, its retroactive elements, and the global compliance burden it imposed, this rollout was deeply flawed from both a procedural and practical standpoint. ⸻ In his first week in office, President Trump directed us to win the AI race. The Biden Diffusion Rule undermines that goal. It bogs American tech companies down in red tape, while slowing the global adoption of U.S. technologies at a time when we should be encouraging the world to build on our tech stack. As @VP J.D. Vance emphasized in his Paris Speech on AI, the United States should be the gold standard and partner of choice for our allies and strategic partners. If we make it too hard for them to work with us, we risk pushing them into China’s orbit. China has already launched a Digital Silk Road as part of its broader Belt and Road Initiative. If we don’t offer a compelling alternative, we leave the field open. Yes, we must take aggressive steps to prevent advanced semiconductors from being illegally diverted into China. But that goal should not preclude legitimate sales to the rest of the world as long as partners comply with reasonable security conditions. Today, American chips remain superior to China’s—but that lead is narrowing. If U.S. companies are hamstrung by excessive regulation, and foreign customers are blocked from buying our technology, we risk ceding global markets and influence to Chinese competitors. Right now, we have the opportunity to entrench the American tech stack worldwide while we still have a commanding lead. Let’s seize it.
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Reserve your copies now. Just like Bill does everyday - this book will make you think. How to live your best life & coach your kids on their career. Get extras for your friends! 🚀🚀
I have written my first book! A passion project of almost 10 years, Runnin' Down a Dream aims to give people both the motivation & the methods for thriving in a career they actually love. Put a lot of heart and soul into this - hope you ❤️ it. Pre-order: a.co/d/5APYleb
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Are AI Super PACS lobbying against open source AI? 🤖🏛️ @altcap @bgurley #opensource
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i feel so spoiled. best time (yet) to be alive. thank you for your service @theallinpod @BG2Pod @joerogan
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China AI. Nvidia had 95% market share in China in 2022, fell dramatically in 23-24 due to export controls, & today is nearly banned. Meanwhile Huawei capabilities are expanding rapidly to fill the vacuum giving them monopoly profits in China to fuel their global expansion. The decision increases the US trade deficit w China by up to $50 B per yr; reduces taxes paid to the Treasury by $5-10 B per yr; reduces NVDA profit for R&D & Investment by > $10 B per yr; reduces the number of Chinese AI researchers in the American AI stack & cuda ecosystem dramatically; & greatly expands Huawei profits. While this also MAY slow China model development, important question - does this policy help or hurt the US in its long run goal of winning the AI race? 🇺🇸🧐
NVIDIA CEO: • China way ahead on energy • U.S. way ahead on chips • China competitive on infrastructure • China competitive on AI models • China way ahead in open-source models • U.S. frontier models better overall • China has lighter industrial regulation • China applications advancing fast • China’s society adopts new technology faster • China has the larger government supplied non-internet training data • U.S. companies and society need to adopt AI faster The race is real and the US needs to counter each advantage, rapidly.
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At a time the President has declared a national energy emergency to dramatically accelerate the production of power - it is utter madness that @GavinNewsom has not extended @DiabloCanyonCA beyond 2029 - we must act now! @bgurley @altcap 💥💥
Diablo Canyon = reliable energy serving over 3 million people 24/7/365 rain or shine.
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For the record: Last week - when I was the first in the world to clip @SamA slapping Brad for having the temerity to ask how a $13 billion business can afford $1.4 TRILLION in investment commitments - I did not intend to topple a domino that would take down the global financial system. Oops! Sorry bout your 401K - my bad.
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A year ago @satyanadella said he wanted people to know $MSFT made $GOOG dance. Now $GOOG is struggling to find its moves - the BGs break down why on this weeks pod.🕺🕺💃💃 piped.video/-i9AGk3DJ90?si=-op1…
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100%. The Trump admin needs to follow through on its repeal of the Biden AI restraints & accelerate the American AI stack around the world. Why is the US gov’t still failing to grant licenses? Jensen coming back on pod in Sept to discuss! @DavidSacks @altcap 🚀🇺🇸
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang spoke with Joe and Mika on @Morning_Joe to make one thing clear: U.S. AI leadership depends on developer adoption.   The American tech stack should be the world standard — one that developers everywhere want to build upon.
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How did this not make the first cut?! I guess we didn’t want to bury the lead!! @_clarktang 🔥🚀
This should not have been an outtake @_clarktang!
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The Manhattan Project was gov’t led & cost $35-40 B inflation adjusted or $300 B as a equivalent share (1.0%) of GDP. The current AI Capex Super-cycle is privately funded and > 10x the Oppenheimer effort even when measured against share of GDP. 🇺🇸🚀
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Truth. There is no “gov’t money” - it is all the people’s money. 🇺🇸
Ending wasteful spending & restoring self-governance aren’t separate goals. They go hand-in-hand.
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In the office w @bgurley banging out a Saturday pod - sorry for the delay fans - promise we r working hard - what a time to be alive! As I walked out of house saw this poster in my son’s bedroom - feeling inspired by @SpaceX @elonmusk and that epic starship launch this week. 🚀
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Common sense wisdom on free / fair trade. 🇺🇸 @bgurley @altcap
“There is no question that trade can be an act of war. It has led to bad things — the attitudes that it has brought out. In the United States, we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world. And we should do what we do best and they should do what they do best. That’s what we did originally. We were good at producing tobacco & cotton 250 years ago, and we traded it. We want a prosperous world. But [with] eight countries with nuclear weapons — including a few that I would call quite unstable — I do not think it’s a great idea where a few countries say: ‘Ha-ha we won!’ and other countries are envious." @WarrenBuffett BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY 2025
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