President @anduriltech, Visiting Fellow @HooverInst. Prev: Staff Director, @SASCMajority | Policy Planning, @StateDept | @SAISHopkins | @KenyonCollege
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My book is out!
It is about emerging technology, the future of warfare, the erosion of U.S. military dominance, how to reimagine our national defense, and how the political system we have can produce the new military we need.
Please pick up a copy:
amazon.com/Kill-Chain-Defend…
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What to rename US military bases named after Confederate soldiers? In the course of US history, 89 black Americans have received the Medal of Honor. One man, Robert Augustus Sweeney (a sailor), received it twice. That group of heroes would be a pretty good place to start.
Who are some underrated military commanders in US history that deserve more bases named after them? My votes are Ridgeway & OP Smith from Korea, Truscott & Spruance from WWII, Joshua Chamberlain from Civil War, and Nathaniel Greene from Revolutionary War
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I have been asked a lot today whether SASC knew about any of these issues with Shanahan when he was nominated to be Deputy Secretary two years ago. The answer is no. The first I learned about this was in the media today. SASC deserves to know why.
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This is bullshit. A “battlespace” is where America fights its foreign enemies. We are talking here about US cities and fellow citizens. We need to leave the rhetoric of war out of domestic law enforcement. militarytimes.com/news/your-…
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(1) I have read and written a lot of government documents. The Commandant's Planning Guidance for the Marine Corps is one of the best defense documents I have read in a long time. The blood of sacred cows is all over this thing.
Thread here... 👇
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This is a remarkable statement about race, our military, and our country. It is more remarkable because it is being said by a four-star general and the next Air Force Chief of Staff. It even more remarkable because Gen. CQ Brown is African-American. Well done, sir.
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In our current competition with China, this is the strategic equivalent of benching our star athlete.
President Trump will freeze green cards for new immigrants and sign an executive order to suspend H-1B, L-1, J and other temporary work visas for skilled workers, managers and au pairs through the end of the year. trib.al/xBcLTsr
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Katie Wheelbarger & Elaine McCusker are two of the finest, most dedicated public servants I've ever worked with. They're also women. They should have been retained & promoted, not driven out of government. This was a pass/fail test. The White House failed.
cnn.com/2020/06/18/politics/…
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Jim Mattis once said he would “speak out” when “the time is right.” It kinda feels like now is the time.
At the same time, no General—former or current—is going to save us. Nor should they. That is up to us.
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My latest in @ForeignAffairs: “The New Revolution in Military Affairs.” foreignaffairs.com/articles/…
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Way to go @SASCMajority @SASCDems! I worked on SASC for a decade and know about how defense bills become laws. Mark my words: this provision on Confederate-named military bases will become law, whether Trump signs it or not. John McCain would be proud!
rollcall.com/2020/06/10/sena…
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I miss John McCain more than ever today. I’ll always remember his courage, decency, sense of justice, largeness of spirit, and just what a rollicking good time he was.
Working for McCain was the adventure of a lifetime. Please honor his memory with #ActsOfCivility.
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The era of US military primacy is ending. But we can harness new technologies to build a different kind of military that can achieve defense without dominance, even as defense budgets go down after COVID. Check out my @WSJ piece here 👇 wsj.com/articles/the-end-of-…
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My @WSJ article starts with a story about John McCain. This Memorial Day weekend, I’m grateful I got to work for an American hero—not only because he was captured but because of how much he gave our nation every day after that. Are we equal to his legacy?
wsj.com/articles/the-end-of-…
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I can’t imagine a better first tweet: @anduriltech is building the most exciting defense technology and solving some of the hardest national security problems. I am excited to be part of the team! defensenews.com/digital-show…
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The US doesn’t think 4th gen fighters would be effective against China, but we’re cheering F-16 sales to Taiwan? I‘m less interested in increased Taiwanese defense spending than what Taiwan plans to buy with it. F-16s? Tanks? Seriously? How about A2AD systems of its own?
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The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is not in the chain of command. He is, by law, an adviser to the President and SecDef—not a commander. Also, as a uniformed military officer, he is never ultimately “in charge.” That is the job of civilians.
Trump says the top U.S. military officer is 'in charge' as George Floyd protests rock the nation cnb.cx/3cqvdFP
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Thrilled to join the awesome @CarnegieEndow team with old friends and mentors Bill Burns and @EvanFeigenbaum as well as new colleagues like @KateCharlet and @jrpsaki and so many others. Can’t wait to get started!
Christian Brose will join Carnegie to work on U.S. defense policy, strategy, and programs, especially the implications of technological advances and evolving security threats for the U.S. military.
Welcome to Carnegie, @cdbrose!
ceip.org/p-78184
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Check out the awesome review of my new book, The Kill Chain, by @IgnatiusPost in @PostOpinions!
"...the most provocative critique of U.S. defense policy I’ve read in years.... The book isn’t just a wake-up call, it’s a fire alarm in the night."
amazon.com/gp/new-releases/d…
Think we have military primacy over China? Think again, @IgnatiusPost writes wapo.st/3fF5Rqy
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Putting aside the relative merits of this statement, I don’t think it helps for a US ambassador in one NATO country to publicly lobby to take the US troops based in another NATO country.
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C’mon... This budget deal, largely for our troops, will “bankrupt America?” How about that multi-trillion dollar tax cut we didn’t pay for? Republicans should be for economic growth & national defense, but let’s at least be intellectually consistent.
Hopefully @realDonaldTrump realizes before it's too late that @stevenmnuchin1 is weak and shouldn't be cutting a deal with @SpeakerPelosi.
It would bankrupt America - maybe @stevenmnuchin1 never read #ArtOfTheDeal.
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I’d like to believe that somewhere beyond space and time, my old boss, John McCain, watched his old friend Joe Biden deliver that beautiful tribute to the idea of America and his call to unity and duty with a smiling face, misty eyes & a hopeful heart.
God Bless President Biden
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(13) The CMC just overturned USMC holy writ. I would challenge the CNO to make a similarly bold statement on aircraft carriers, the Army Chief on soldier end strength, and the Air Force Chief on fighter squadrons.
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(25) Like I said, one of the best DOD documents I have read in a while. Now comes the hard part: implementation. I am pulling hard for @CMC_MarineCorps. And I'd be eager to see similarly visionary guidance on hard choices from the Navy, Air Force, & Army.
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"...and cuts careers off near the 20-year mark when workers have decades of productivity left in them. These polices drive increased PCS costs, throw away talent at the point it is most productive and highly trained, and discourage performers who would like to continue serving…
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(16) "...but may be less interested in promotion or constant disruptive moves of questionable personal and professional value.” 💥💥💥
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@HalBrands and Peter Feaver say a lot of important things in here that need to be said. Rs and Ds alike should read it closely. nationalreview.com/magazine/…
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(6) Read this twice and savor it: "Force design is my number one priority If provided the opportunity to secure additional modernization dollars in exchange for force structure, I am prepared to do so." When was the last time a service chief said that?
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(7) He then redefines the USMC's mission in a sentence: "The focal point of the future integrated naval force will shift from traditional power projection to ... maintaining persistent naval forward presence to enable sea control and denial operations."
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SecDefs have spent too much time on the road, in the White House, & dealing with foreign policy issues that are not core defense issues. They do not spend enough time in the DOD reshaping the military for the future, which they uniquely can do. This from @EsperDoD is pure gold.
At my confirmation hearing, I committed to actively seek opportunities to reallocate resources & reinvest back into our top priorities. Today, I'm kicking off the Defense Wide Review to ensure every dollar spent furthers the National Defense Strategy.
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(9) So we need a totally different force: "We must continue to seek the affordable and plentiful at the expense of the exquisite and few when conceiving of the future amphibious portion of the fleet." I wrote about this at length here: foreignaffairs.com/articles/…
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Truth from @AndrewSErickson
“Unilateral constraint was a losing proposition: China developed the world’s foremost force of missiles precisely within the ranges that I.N.F. would prohibit.... So this increasingly antiquated treaty had no future.”
nytimes.com/2019/08/01/world…
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(15) "The current manpower model does not accommodate a Marine whose interests change over time, tends to average performance over time instead of weighting current performance more heavily, forces Marines to move out of skills they excel at in the name of developing them…
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This is a clear win for defense hawks. $750B was always trade bait. Remember: The original FY20 request was $733B. My plea: let’s not use this money on additional legacy platforms that won’t win. Let’s increase funding for the future technologies we need.
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(10) 👉"We...must distribute our forces ashore given the growth of adversary precision strike capabilities, so it would be illogical to continue to concentrate our forces on a few large ships. We need...a new fleet design of smaller, more lethal, and more risk-worthy platforms.”
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(8) And why change? "The ability to project and maneuver from strategic distances will likely be detected and contested from the point of embarkation during a major contingency." Hiding in future war will be hard; once found, surviving will be just as hard.
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(17) A case for DOPMA reform in one line: "In the current manpower model, primary occupational fields are set early in a career and Marines are essentially stuck either accepting it for an entire career or choosing separation."
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(14) And if that were not enough, the CMC then proceeded to kick the door wide open on DOPMA reform: "While performance is factored into promotion selection, it is narrowed to a slim cohort, roughly based on year groups – an antiquated model.”
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(24) Oh, and then he went on for three pages about the centrality of experimentation: "A major focus of my tenure as Commandant will be my direct, personal, regular engagement with our Warfighting Laboratory to drive an integrated process of wargaming and experimentation..."
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Proud to announce the launch of our #ReaganTaskForce on 21st Century National Security Technology and Workforce with our bipartisan co-chairs Sen. @JimTalent and Sec. Robert Work. See our official press release below! @RogerZakheim @rachelhoff814 reaganfoundation.org/media/3…
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Shameless book plug for the day: Some guy named Sun Tzu apparently has a better-selling military policy book than I do. This must be some kind of cruel hoax. Dude has no profile on social media...
amazon.com/Kill-Chain-Defend…
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Why should the US military rely less on aircraft carriers (few, large, expensive, heavily manned, hard to replace) and more on autonomous systems (small, many, cheaper, expendable)? I literally wrote a book about this...
amazon.com/Kill-Chain-Defend…
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(3) Gen. Berger's sweeping critique of his own service is as rare as it is admirable. I'll let his words speak for themselves, starting with the key problem: "the current force is not organized, trained, or equipped to support the naval force.”
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Check out what arrived!
I’ve cursed this project a ton in the past year. But I think books are like kids. When they’re born, you don’t want to do it again. But from the day you get to hold your creation, you forget the pain and see only goodness.
(Book stack credit = my kids.)
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(4) He is willing to make hard choices: "We must divest of legacy capabilities that do not meet our future requirements, regardless of their past operational efficacy. There is no piece of equipment or major defense acquisition program that defines us."
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A passionate, empathetic, revealing, & moving reflection on race in America as seen through a life spent within both black & white society. Sharing, listening to, and being changed by stories like this is how we become better. Take time to read it. 👏👏👏 medium.com/@rnagarajah2/refl…
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(12) Wait for it, wait for it... " We will no longer reference the 38-ship requirement memo from 2009, or the 2016 Force Structure Assessment, as the basis for our arguments and force structure justifications." Heads exploding...
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I challenge anyone to name another member of Congress who is thinking more deeply about defense strategy and force planning than @chairmang.
It’s no secret that I’ve been critical about DoD’s implementation of the National Defense Strategy. I wrote about this at length in @TWQgw. But after reading the Commandant's Planning Guidance, I'm encouraged the @USMC is taking important steps forward. nitter.app/RepGallagher/status/11…
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(20) "...naval forces will persist forward with many smaller, low signature, affordable platforms that can economically host a dense array of lethal and non-lethal payloads."
How to do it? "By exploiting the technical revolution in autonomy, advanced manufacturing, and [AI].."
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This funding can 100% meet NDS requirements. Buying more of what we have will not. Playing that losing game is exactly what China & Russia want us to do. Let’s stop fighting over funding and start thinking about buying a force that can win.
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An observation:
Microsoft has effectively remade itself into an AI company in recent years.
And yet, I feel like Microsoft Word has become noticeably less intelligent at flagging what it thinks are misspellings and inaccurate grammar.
I can’t explain this. That is all.
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(23) That sound you hear is small non-traditional defense companies across America cheering this line: "The authority to operate (ATO) and information assurance (IA) processes must not be allowed to inhibit the adoption of these technologies and processes." Amen. Now do it…
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As much as I appreciate being the #1 New Release in Military Policy, I am even more excited to see that my book is also the #1 New Release in Marine Engineering...
It is a competitive category...
Do I thank @USMC and @CMC_MarineCorps for this?
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The time I got a box of CDs in the mail was from Columbia House records in 1995. It cost me 1¢. These CDs cost me one year of pain and suffering and many future years of therapy. The good news: It was worth it. The bad news: I literally have no ability to play CDs anywhere. 🤷♂️
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With respect to Herr Schönbohm, when political motivation is the basis of investment and other decisions in China, as it is w/ CCP, we harm our alliances & our security by not facing that honestly. There is a qualitative difference between US & CCP. It is called rule of law.
Head of German cybersecurity agency roots for Huawei:
"Doesn't matter if components come from China or Sweden. If political trust alone is basis for investment decisions, we destroy global division of labor & our prosperity". Says no qualitative difference between China & US.
#5G
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(22) "...however, doing so will not be easy. It will require divesting of legacy capabilities that cannot be economically adapted to meet the demands of the future, while also taking calculated risks in some areas."
Again: make hard choices in favor of the future over the past.
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We don’t need another large, expensive, manned tanker that we can only afford in small quantities. We need large numbers of low-cost, autonomous tankers that can be lost and replaced easily/cheaply in combat. Attrition will be a reality. Plan for it.
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(18) SASC & HASC MUST engage CMC on this: "Modest improvement can be achieved with the tools already in hand, while dramatic improvement will likely take changes in budgets, law (DOPMA), policy, traditions, and mindset. I will communicate more on this idea in the near future.”
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It’s never too late to say and do the right thing. Thank you, Gen. Milley. @thejointstaff
Breaking News: The top U.S. military official, General Mark Milley, apologized for taking part in President Trump’s walk to a church photo op. “I should not have been there.” nyti.ms/30y7AZy
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Woo hoo! I just got my 2,000th follower. (Thanks @GB_Drone!)
That’s nothing compared with most of you. But I’m shocked that this many people actually care. I will now proceed to radically let you all down.
Who else wants in?
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(19) Back to force design and warfighting. I could not have said this better myself: "Rather than heavily investing in expensive and exquisite capabilities that regional aggressors have optimized their forces to target…"
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(5) And speak truth on force organization: "Likewise, we are not defined by any particular organizing construct – the Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) cannot be our only solution for all crises."
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(21) "Nascent applications such as swarming and miniature aerial attack systems have the potential to radically change the character of war. Our future force development must include appropriate prioritization in these technologies…"
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Great scoop by @DavidLarter but terrible news. Getting VA class subs right with payload modules is one of the most important things in the entire defense program.
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(11) And here come the kickers: "We will no longer use a '2.0 MEB requirement' as the foundation for our arguments regarding amphibious ship building, to determine the requisite capacity of vehicles or other capabilities." Dead sacred cow.
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The belief that the Chief Management Officer (CMO) position can be deemed a failure and should be disbanded is preposterous. That would be like giving up on a baseball team in the top of the 2nd inning. Let’s unpack this a bit. Thread 👇
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Slowing down the JEDI contract would be like tying our military’s shoelaces together in the AI race w/ China. AI requires data at scale, which requires an enterprise cloud. DOD is 10 years behind private industry. Without JEDI, AI at DOD will be academic. thehill.com/policy/technolog…
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Great piece by fellow Philadelphian @laraseligman. There is a lot of talk in DC these days about how to bridge the divide between DOD and the tech community. @PalmerLuckey and @anduriltech are actually doing it.
Luckey and a small group of tech leaders are spearheading the charge to transform the fraught relationship between the U.S. military and Silicon Valley. buff.ly/2EXSZMe
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Great points Chairman Dunford and @HawleyMO. Let me introduce you to @anduriltech. We are a US technology company that wants to work with the US military, not benefit the Chinese military. @PalmerLuckey @traestephens @thejointstaff
Must watch video: Joint Chiefs Chairman says Google refuses to work with US military but provides “direct benefit” to China’s military
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(2) It is no secret that I have been rather critical of the USMC's thinking about its roles, missions, force structure, and force design as part of the Joint Force when adversaries have built up huge long-range precision strike complexes.
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The last time I got a box of CDs in the mail was from Columbia House in 1995. It cost me 1¢. These CDs cost me one year of pain and suffering and many future years of therapy. The good news: It was worth it. The bad news: I literally have no ability to play CDs anywhere. 🤷♂️
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How do aliens factor into the “return of great power competition?”
Asking for a friend...
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Thanks @ashleytownshend! You will recognize your influence all over my book. For those who haven’t read “Averting Crisis,” do it now.
ussc.edu.au/analysis/avertin…
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This is a must-read by Bob Scales. War is always a contest between offense and defense. Emerging technologies create inherent advantages for the defense. This is a critical insight that each military service must internalize.
Robert Scales, former commandant of @ArmyWarCollege, is convinced that [Army] concept- and doctrine-writers now perceive the battlefield as dominated by the offensive. warontherocks.com/2019/09/th…
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DOD’s FY20 budget is moving in the right direction, but who will fight for future technology and NDS investments when a $750B topline doesn’t materialize and everyone wants to add legacy ships, planes, vehicles, etc? Thanks @IgnatiusPost washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
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Kudos to @JoeKristol and @spetraeus for an outstanding, must read piece. washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
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This needs to change. The US needs to be much more insistent with our partners that they use their limited budgets to buy systems that provide real defensive & deterrent capabilities. That may not be what they want to buy or what many in the US want to sell. But we must insist.
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Here’s my take on US-China competition at #AspenSecurity. Thank you @AspenSecurity and @AspenStrategy for inviting me, and to @SangerNYT and Gen. Tony Thomas for an excellent discussion!
"The fundamental problem in the US right now is a lack of imagination…We talk about China as a great power. China isn't a great power…If it progresses on the trajectory it's on, it will be a peer of the US." – @cdbrose on China & the race for technological power. #AspenSecurity
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I have long been in favor of the “porcupine strategy.” Not just for Taiwan but other frontline partners in Europe & Asia. They don’t need power-projection forces. They need COUNTER-power-projection forces. They need to make themselves utterly unappealing to strong predators.
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Hey @NBCSports, you want dominant back in the day? How about “E,” the @KenyonCollege men’s swim team, which won 31 CONSECUTIVE D3 national championships (1980-2010).
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A humble suggestion: The US should spend a lot less time talking about things it has not done and a lot more time doing things without talking about them. Especially when we have not yet developed the weapons we are talking about. mobile.reuters.com/article/a…
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I can’t say it better than Bryan Clark in @DavidLarter’s excellent piece, so I won’t try. Read the whole thing:
“It’s great that the Navy is doing these improvements, but it’s very incremental,” said Bryan Clark, a retired submarine officer and analyst with @CSBA_ ...
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My oversight: Gen Robert Neller, former CMC, also deserves credit for the new Planning Guidance. Much of this work started under his leadership.
p.s. Every Marine who helped to produce this document should be fast-tracked to promotion.
p.p.s. And for those who fought it...🤔😒
(1) I have read and written a lot of government documents. The Commandant's Planning Guidance for the Marine Corps is one of the best defense documents I have read in a long time. The blood of sacred cows is all over this thing.
Thread here... 👇
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This is spot on. Trade sanctions will hurt Hong Kong more than the CCP. Instead, open America’s doors to HK citizens who want to flee and seek refuge in the US. That directs America’s greatest source of power against the CCP’s greatest source of weakness. wsj.com/articles/visas-for-h…
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The National Defense Strategy says to prioritize China and Russia. But the White House seems to be spending a lot of our limited military power on Iran and Venezuela. @ElbridgeColby @C_M_Dougherty wsj.com/articles/u-s-deploys…
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In case you are wondering whether our failures in Afghanistan over the past two decades have been due more to the military prowess of our adversaries than poor American policy, this video should give you a hint at the answer.
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(1) So here is the interesting (and subversive) element of @CMC_MarineCorps Planning Guidance that we have not yet focused on: He is saying that he wants the USMC to get back into the business of sea control, especially killing enemy ships from the land. That’s great...
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This would include tons of mobile SAMS, dense IADS, anti-ship missiles of all kinds, electronic warfare, missile defenses, hardening physical/cyber infrastructure, low-cost unmanned ISR systems in all domains, and the makings for a nasty insurgency if it ever came to that.
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