logician. investor. #bitcoin

wherever you want me to be
Every generation has its story asset -- the thing that you never sell and it just keeps going up. For my grandparents, it was $GE. For my parents, it was $AMZN. For me, it's BTC. #bitcoin
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If you want to build SERIOUS WEALTH across generations, think more carefully about where you live. 🧵
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welcome @jpmorgan to bitcoin
Don’t wait until your banker tells you to buy Bitcoin. finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmor…
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I buy Bitcoin every day.
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one of the reasons people can't wrap their heads around #bitcoin is because it's a denominator, not a numerator.
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You know what's not shutting down today? Bitcoin.
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if #bitcoin gets to ~$1.5mill, @saylor is richer than Buffett
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Anytime someone pitches me a private deal, I ask myself two questions: “1) How likely is this to outperform #bitcoin over the next 2-5 years? 2) How liquid will it be?” The answer to both questions is almost always “Not at all.” Then I #smashbuy.
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The only stablecoin is Bitcoin. The rest are digital representations of eons-old technology known as "fiat."
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In March of 2000, Intel $INTC was all the rage, hitting $72/share and trading at 14x sales and 60x earnings. The stock price is $27 now. Today, $NVDA trades at 35x sales and 180x earnings. #valuation matters more than stories in the long run. #stonks
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The world is converging on a #Bitcoin Standard -- most just don't realize it yet.
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Is it even possible to “price in” the potential for no capital gains on #bitcoin?
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the most important question for all the investment "professionals" who dump on #bitcoin (and did so at $500, $1,000, $5,000, $20,000, $30,000) -- "what specifically would cause you to admit you were wrong?"
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Now that Harvard did it, it's "OK" for all other endowments to do it. Note they ain't buyin ETH. There's just under $1T in total endowment assets. BTC 🚀
JUST IN: Harvard officially bought $117 million of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF — SEC filing
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there are two kinds of people -- those who already own #bitcoin and those who will own it at a higher price.
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Might be worth trying to figure out after 16 years of crushing every other asset
The people who understand why one Bitcoin is worth $110k are much much smarter than I am.
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$MSTR just announced intent to sell half its market cap in the largest-ever at-the-market (ATM) equity offering (with call options on more), and the stock is HIGHER on the day with just over 2 hours left to go. #payattention #neverseenanythinglikeit #bitcoinbreaksyourmodelz
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Is @elonmusk ‘s real beef with #bitcoin his lack of autocracy?
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Bitcoin is the largest, most liquid digital asset and the only one suitable for a nation state’s coffers. When the heads of the largest crypto companies in America all say the same thing (@brian_armstrong did too), it’s probably worth listening @davidsacks47 @realDonaldTrump
I have nothing against XRP, SOL, or ADA but I do not think they are suitable for a Strategic Reserve. Only one digital asset in the world right now meets the bar and that digital asset is bitcoin. Many of these assets are listed for trading on @Gemini and meet our rigorous listing policy criteria, but with respect to a Strategic Reserve it is another standard. An asset needs to be hard money that is a proven store of value like gold.
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Me too. I buy every day every week.
We bought bitcoin every day this week.
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probably nothing....#bitcoin
🔮 Dell Technologies is about to follow Saylor’s Microstrategy playbook and put #Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Michael Dell hasn’t tweeted about Bitcoin since 2015, when Dell accepted bitcoin. Let’s give him a warm welcome back.
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a #bitcoin etf cannot grow its bitcoin per share while $MSTR can. #capitalallocation
$MSTR raising $700m at 0.625% per annum due in 2030, with a convert strike price 40% higher than where the stock closed yesterday, w/ all the proceeds going towards buying more $BTC. Masterclass.
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Not long from now, people are going to say "I can't believe I could've bought #bitcoin when it was only $100k."
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Welcome to Team #Bitcoin @ryancohen. He just changed investor.gamestop.com to mimic the look and feel of the @berkshire site while simultaneously updating his corporate treasury strategy to include bitcoin. #legend
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retweet if you want to see @MichaelDell @TheBitcoinConf
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people are buying #bitcoin because it's safer to trust an algorithm than politicians who will commit crimes to remain in power and change the measuring stick a little every year
Treason indeed! Ushering in vast numbers of illegals is why Secretary Mayorkas was impeached by the House. They are importing voters. This is why groups on the far left fight so hard to stop voter ID requirements, under the absurd guise of protecting the right to vote.
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Can’t say the same about ethereum
Replying to @zerohedge
True. That is why Bitcoin is based on energy: you can issue fake fiat currency, and every government in history has done so, but it is impossible to fake energy.
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Agree. I spoke separately this past weekend with another big exchange CEO and asked him about how his personal nest egg was split. "Pretty much all #bitcoin" was the response -- from a guy whose company trades it all.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong just said: "I think over time we will see Bitcoin $BTC get into the millions, multiple millions price range"
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"We all want to go to the moon, but if you want to ride the rocket, you've got to be prepared to pull the G's." #truth
We are ₿uying.
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2.625% fixed for the next 26 years is a more hitter status symbol than no mortgage
The paid-off home mortgage has taken the place of the BMW as the status symbol of choice.
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#fiat is for losers and crooks. #bitcoin is for winners and accountable people. Your choice.
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one thing that anyone who understands basic corporate finance concepts around valuation and cost of capital can tell you -- assuming $MSTR should trade in parity with its #bitcoin holdings + capitalized software value is clearly wrong.
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Tickets to escape the matrix are priced in #Bitcoin - @saylor
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It blows my mind how small most investors’ allocations are to bitcoin. So early.
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The bond market is craving securities tied to #bitcoin
MicroStrategy Completes $800 Million Offering of Convertible Notes at 0.625% Coupon and 42.5% Conversion Premium $MSTR microstrategy.com/press/micr…
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Pay attention
You're looking at the first breakout of #Bitcoin against M1 money supply since March 2017 when it went historically parabolic for 9 months.
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Nothing says “I don’t understand the theoretical underpinning for #bitcoin” more than a presidential candidate launching their own $hitcoin. @realDonaldTrump @elonmusk #separationofmoneyandstate
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I believe failing to own any #bitcoin will continue to be the biggest investment #mistake of the 21st century
✨ 3 years ago today, China banned #Bitcoin mining and sent the price crashing 30%. Today, hash rate and price are at all-time highs, and Wall Street is trading billions in ETFs daily The greatest political mistake of the 21st Century 💫
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unlike fort knox, everyone can audit the bitcoin blockchain instantly and for free.
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The guy who ran crypto for @meta just said “#bitcoin is the only viable neutral settlement asset and network that can usher in a new era of global real-time payments.” And a pro-Bitcoiner now runs Argentina. Pay attention.
Lately, there's been more debate around the value of the #Bitcoin Lightning Network. Based on the work we've been doing @Lightspark for the past 18 months, I will share my honest view. First things first — Bitcoin is the only viable neutral settlement asset and network that can usher in a new era of global real-time payments. Everything else is either too centralized, not secure enough, doesn't have the required regulatory clarity, or doesn't have the required depth of liquidity against the (fiat) currencies that people and businesses want to use for everyday transactions. Once you believe the above, you must make Bitcoin move faster and cheaper than on L1 to make it competitive and valuable. But, you need to achieve this while retaining Bitcoin's trust and security principles. In other words, no new consensus paradigm. You also need to introduce privacy, while not sacrificing compliance. Once you add up all the above, the only way forward — at least for now — is to use the Lightning Network. Now let's talk about the challenges. Lightning used to be complex, failure rates for higher value transactions were relatively high, managing liquidity, rebalancing channels, and keeping a node up and running, were all things that got in the way of adoption. To the greatest extent, this is now a thing of the past. We — and others in the industry — have addressed these shortcomings and complications with good software and services. On Lightspark's stack, you can get up and running in no time, without ever having to learn about channels, liquidity, routing, or any of these different concepts. To be clear, the above works exceptionally well for enterprises, and custodians. It allows them to settle BTC in near-real time, at a very low cost, in a private, compliant, and reliable way. Add to that the newly launched and open-sourced UMA (Universal Money Address) standard, which extends LNURL to add compliance and FX capabilities, and any consumer or business can send and receive any currency of their choosing in real-time with a human-readable address between participating institutions without ever knowing Bitcoin or Lightning was involved. Just as someone sending an email doesn't think about SMTP and TCP/IP. It just works. So we're done? Is it all great? No. It's not. We collectively have much more work to do. I agree with @Leishman, Lightning with the above advancements works well in custodial/institutional settings. This is why at Lightspark, we started our development journey by focusing on enterprise solutions at first. This is where most of the volume is, and where we felt we could have the most impact in the short and medium term. Let's now turn to the work ahead: - Non-custodial Lightning: as much as custodial LN is now fully ready for primetime, self-custody on Lightning presents two distinct challenges: (1) offline receive; and (2) channel open fees for smaller transactions. About (1) — if you're running a node on your device unless your app is foregrounded (iOS), or if you have bad connectivity, you won't be able to receive an incoming transaction. And (2) — opening channels with higher L1 fees is currently cost-prohibitive. Some solutions are being worked on to address these, from @lightning labs to @spiralbtc, and of course @lightspark. But to be blunt, if you want full support for non-custodial Lightning with offline receive and want to make it economically viable, you have to accept some form of compromise on the trustlessness level of the solution. With some solutions, you have to trust an LSP, with others, it's a bit better with more distributed trust across different entities/service providers. This will be for consumers to choose between usability, cost, and full trustlessness. There's a lot more work and research that is taking place to improve these solutions and find non-linear breakthroughs, but for now, tradeoffs are required. - Pushing identity / addressing to be fully self-sovereign: LNURL, and by extension, UMA, is fantastic when it comes to user experience, but users rely on their custodians to provide the addressing service as it relies on DNS. Again, it's probably fine for most people, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't push harder to enable people to own their identity and money address and make that portable. Some exciting work we're tracking is what @TBD54566975 has been building with DIDs. We're also wondering — and to some, it'll be blasphemous! — whether there are interesting bridges to make with ENS in the future. - Issuing other assets on Lightning: bringing stablecoins and other assets onto the network to make it more efficient for a subset of transactions will be critical. @lightning has been working on Taproot Assets and making good progress, @bitfinex is working on RGB, and we're working to help make this a reality across the board. Lightning is seeing more talent flock to it rather than leave it. It's ready for primetime and mass market for exchanges, custodial wallets, banks, and institutions. It needs more work for non-custodial wallets and applications, and to bring stablecoins to the network. But let's take a deep breath. We're about to see #Bitcoin become the standard protocol for money on the internet with mass adoption on the horizon. It'll require tradeoffs and collective efforts, but I'm more bullish than ever on our odds of success.
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.@saylor is running a CLINIC in #capitalallocation and most finance professors are asleep at the wheel.
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"ethereum = smart contracts and more possibilities than bitcoin" is among the lowest IQ takes imaginable. it ultimately comes down to secure governance of the base layer as collateral/money. everything else is programmable and always has been.
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This won’t age well. Remember when @chamath said he was going to convert the Hamptons into a sleepaway camp for disadvantaged kids if #bitcoin hit $150k? 👀
NEW: Chamath predicts a 2-5 year window before quantum computing becomes advanced enough to potentially break Bitcoin’s encryption.
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people that can't tolerate a 15% drawdown don't deserve the returns that #bitcoin has produced...go buy long-dated government bonds...oh wait, those fell 54% between their peak on 3/9/20 and 10/23/23 (TLT) while bitcoin was up...<checks notes>...293% over the same timeframe
Another day.... another chance to roll out of bitcoin while the Number Go Up club tries to keep it at 40,000
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Enjoyed talking #Bitcoin today vs “crypto” with @YahooFinance
$BTC "is very different from crypto," Miller Value Partners portfolio manager Bill Miller IV says. "Crypto was convicted yesterday [on seven counts of fraud]. Bitcoin is still going very, very strong. The network is as strong as it's ever been." @Nasdaq
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They’re called “bitcoin owners”
It'd be nice if there was at least one fiscally conservative party.
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Imagine repeating the same idea that’s left you on the sidelines of one of the greatest money-making opportunities in history and hoping you’ll be right one day. HFSP
Imagine paying $118k for a set of man-made numbers
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“Tickets to escape The Matrix are priced in bitcoin.” -@saylor
How is this not an objectively disastrous development for @SecScottBessent
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“The whole idea of diversification makes sense when you don’t know the answer but don’t want to make a mistake.” - @saylor spreading true investment insight
The perils of diversification, the evolution of $MSTR, the physics of financial engineering, bridging the crypto economy with the capital markets, the opportunity for the US to own the world's reserve capital network, and the inevitable demonetization of gold with @GuyAdami.
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If someone says “I don’t get #bitcoin,” what they really mean is, “I don’t get why it’s important to separate the capital ledger from those who wield control over its units.”
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MY MAN @joesquawk gets it. #fiatisfailing
“You better buy some Bitcoin, Mohammed.” @JoeSquawk is my spirit animal 😂
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Boss technician Rich Ross thinks Bitcoin is poised to break out to 140. "In 2024, Mr. Ross ranked No. 1 in his field for the seventh consecutive year and was named to the Institutional Investor (now Extel) All-America Research Team for the 10th year in a row."
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what is the intrinsic value of a technology that lowers the rewards for violence? #bitcoin
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Now do the same in bitcoin
What if stock market gains were measured in gold instead of dollars? As John Authers notes, “Denominate U.S. stocks in gold rather than dollars, and they’ve been in decline since the dot-com bubble burst 25 years ago. Stocks elsewhere have done even worse.” #stocks #gold #markets #investors #investing
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Only another $33k to go for bitcoin until @chamath buys the Hamptons and turns it into a sleepaway camp for disadvantaged kids.
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The preferred currency of the illegal drug trade is the United States #dollar, not #bitcoin @SenWarren .
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Bitcoin is the apex predator of capital
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People who still don’t own any bitcoin and dump on it at new all time highs are definitely dumber
BTC bros are some of the most optimistic, dumbest people on the planet. "It's gone up a lot" is their only argument as to why it's worthwhile.
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At 22x next year's earnings, the #stockmarket is expensive right now. At ~0.2% of global capital, #bitcoin is not expensive right now.
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The largest notional leverage flush in Bitcoin history and the price dropped 10%. Watching Bitcoin come of age is so much fun.
#Bitcoin open interest has dropped by ~30%, flushing excess leverage from the market. With funding now near neutral, the market is far less vulnerable to another liquidation cascade. 🔗glassno.de/4obq1v9
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Not only was today's $MSTR move a decisive breakout on legit volume, but it closed at the high on the day. #technicalstrength #shortmstrlongbtcaintworking
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the only blockchain that truly solves the problem of human control over society's capital ledger is #bitcoin. all others are fiat solutions looking for a problem.
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Feels like tonight’s pop in #bitcoin is front-running nice demand at the open tomorrow from ETFs on the heels of a momentous weekend @TheBitcoinConf
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Lube up the money machine @federalreserve
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the litecoin creator would advise his younger self to just buy bitcoin and sit on it.
JUST IN: Charlie Lee says he regrets creating Litecoin "Just buy Bitcoin, don't sell"
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The ironic part of the #mtgox situation is that 99.99% of the people selling their distribution at $57K today would never have made 100x if the exchange had remained open. “The only way you can lose at #bitcoin is to not play or quit too early.” - @saylor
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Epic. B-schools are incredible at explaining what *has* happened. Not so good at explaining what *will* happen. I attended one and can assure you all the education you need is available online for free if you are intellectually curious and self-motivated.
Early.
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Trying to stop #Bitcoin will prove to be on the wrong side of history, @SenWarren.
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Giving the people what they want - more BTC per share $MSTR
MicroStrategy Announces Proposed Private Offering of $500 Million of Convertible Senior Notes $MSTR microstrategy.com/press/micr…
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“Only a fool would jump in and out of a life boat, after having once found the life boat.” - @mattkratter on trying to trade or sell #bitcoin
When To Take Profits on your #Bitcoin by @MattKratter.
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i bet those watching $MSTR "#Bitcoin for Corporations" will in aggregate have a higher IRR on their nest egg over the coming decade than those making the $BRK annual pilgrimage
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When the real #bitcoin minsky moment arrives, only those in self-custody will be safe.
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Wow. What a testament to the stability and staying power of bitcoin - $9B blown out over a few days on the open market and the price dipped 2.5%. 🚀🌕
JUST IN: Galaxy Digital announced it executed one of the largest notional bitcoin transactions in history, selling over 80,000 bitcoin worth more than $9 billion 🤯
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someone just realized that $SMLR has a higher YTD bitcoin yield than $MSTR along with organic cash flow going into bitcoin but isn't valued as such
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My man @neelkashkari said they’re not gonna roll the fed balance sheet back to pre-Covid levels. “Nothing stops this train” - @LynAldenContact
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just ordered a cobb salad and a large bottle of water - $32.33. god bless bitcoin.
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Index investors now have to compete with #bitcoin directly thanks to $MSTR inclusion in $QQQ today. Onward and upward.
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People ask me “why shouldn’t bitcoin be taxed?” Because A) the government didn’t create it, B) taxes go toward the enforcement of property rights, a function that is automated by the blockchain and obviates the ledger shifters.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Ohio bill that would exempt taxes on Bitcoin payments under $200 PASSES the House.
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👀
The world is beginning to wake up to this simple truth: Bitcoin, not crypto.
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why do so many government entities continue to focus on something that they supposedly believe is too "costly, slow and inconvenient" to compete with their game of three card monte? #bitcoin
Bitcoin has failed to become a global decentralised digital currency, instead falling victim to fraud and manipulation. The recent approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is costly, slow and inconvenient, argues #TheECBBlog ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/dat…
Community note
Chainalysis found that only 0.34% of the transaction volume with cryptocurrencies in 2023 was attributable to criminal activity. Bitcoin's share of this is significantly lower with 25%. Illicit transactions with Euros accounted for 1% of the EU's GDP or €110 billion in 2010. chainalysis.com/blog/2024-cryp… transparency.eu/priority/finan
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you know what bond investors like? accountability. #bitcoin
Given high demand, we upsized our $MSTR offering of 0% convertible bonds due 2029 from $1.75 billion to $2.6 billion, including a $400 million greenshoe option, and priced it at a 55% conversion premium.
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I am astounded daily by how few people are paying attention to #bitcoin. “I should’ve bought it last time we talked about it,” they say. It was a costly mistake then, and all of the forces driving people to buy it keep accelerating. #HFSP
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It’s a great day for #bitcoin and self-custody. Shutting down the bucket shops will bolster confidence in the legitimate technology.
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amazed daily by how few people understand the difference between "proof of work" (bitcoin) and "proof of stake" (ethereum and most others) which is an eons-old technology otherwise known as "fiat."
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The first nation state to move in size wins. @RobertKennedyJr gets it.
There is a nation’s President somewhere in the world meeting with their team tonight asking what their bitcoin strategy should be after hearing 2 of 3 leading US Presidential candidates mention a national strategic stockpile over the last 36 hours. The game theory has begun.
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The risk/reward ratio for publicly dumping on #bitcoin or owning none of it is really bad if you actually take more than two seconds to think about it.
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Let’s gooooooo
#BITCOIN IS GOING PARABOLIC‼️
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I don’t know who needs to hear this, but institutional capital ain’t flowing to #doge. #bitcoin
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At some point, the board of @jpmorgan may encourage Jamie to stop making comments like this about #bitcoin, given the risk/reward skew and credibility damage. Maybe next time someone asks, try “I’ve been wrong on this one but still prefer the US dollar.”
The lack of basic understanding about Bitcoin from Jamie Dimon, as the CEO of the largest bank on the planet, is pretty wild. Clearly has not spent any material amount of time looking into it yet speaks so confidently. A bit embarrassing frankly.
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If you’re rooting for bitcoin to go down, a) call a therapist, b) hopefully you’re not investing capital for others.
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If true, @elonmusk would endorse #bitcoin as a superior system of capital governance, as it prioritizes process over outcomes.
America rose to greatness over the past 150 years, because it was a meritocracy more than anywhere else on Earth. I will fight to my last drop of blood to ensure that it remains that land of freedom and opportunity. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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Have you ever seen a stock go up 10% after announcing a sale of options on its shares? #Bitcoin is breaking the models because it’s not predicated on a system that requires inflation to work. $MSTR
The higher the price of $MSTR stock, the more shares @Saylor can sell. The more shares he sells, the more #Bitcoin he can buy. The more Bitcoin he buys, the higher the Bitcoin price rises. When the price of Bitcoin goes up, the share price of MSTR goes up more. When does it end?
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Real Bitcoiners own both.
Buying MSTR is ultimately a very fiat move. Real Bitcoiners own Bitcoin,
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“Borders Group says no one wants to buy books online from $AMZN” #bitcoin
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Minneapolis FED President Kashkari says #Bitcoin remains worthless after 12 years 🤡
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latest thoughts on #Bitcoin as an investment. "failing to own any Bitcoin at this point implies a belief that there will be a reversal in a long-prevailing and increasingly powerful trend" @MillerValue @TuurDemeester @PrestonPysh @michael_saylor millervalue.com/4q20-income-…
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"i don't get #Bitcoin " really means "i don't get how central banking and monetary transmission mechanisms work"
Central Bankers think YOU are so dumb that they can just say this kind of stuff out loud. #Bitcoin is YOUR proof that they can't keep getting away with this theft.
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instead of labeling someone a #bitcoin "maximalist," maybe we should just call them "realists."
no company or country has adopted an ethereum strategy, nor should they. #ProofofWork + #pathdependence + #causalambiguity = superior asset #bitcoin
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