I don't normally talk about specific coins & NFTs...
But I'm awake, I have 34 tabs open & I feel like writing... so buckle up for 1000 words on crypto + speculation + how I'm thinking about current projects & opportunities 😂
To front load here:
🔹I own some but not all of this stuff
🔹I don't have enough size to matter or dump on people
🔹I swing "trade" mostly i.e. speculate over longer time horizons (often 3-6 months or more... I'm washed up and old now haha)
🔹I have no particular qualifications or skills
🔹I'm not endorsing any of this - this is just me experimenting once with open sourcing some of my thinking for the few people who follow me
🔹nfa, you could lose everything if you buy any of these things, think for yourself, etc.
Now, let's get to it (this is going to jump around a lot):
-It sounds very mid maybe, but I'll start by saying I'm bullish on gaming x crypto... split into a barbell of "mainstream" (focused on mAsS aDoPtIoN and "indie" focused on "crypto people"
-In the mass adoption camp, I think Parallel is incredibly cool &
$PRIME will turbo send through the entire cycle. The TCG is top notch &
@ParallelColony with its AI agent concept will help pioneer an entirely new category of gaming
-On the indie side, I'm very bullish on
@playcambria. The traction it has already gotten just by releasing a mini game on
@BuildOnBase with very stripped down dueling is impressive. RPGs + crypto have always felt like a natural match to me. I think we see more energy around this because you're able to a) play a fun RPG with friends and b) be part of a gaming environment that leverages the unique liquidity and energy and CULTure of crypto as piping for the game to build on top of
-I think it's possible
@MadLadsNFT re-runs what happened to
@BoredApeYC in 2021 in that price grinds higher and higher past most people's expectations. Many ETH NFT people will commit Seppuku as this happens because of their cognitive dissonance that a) they are digital culture makers & tastemakers but b) they missed a pretty obvious play with Lads.
-The ratio of Autoglyphs to Colorglyphs is too dam high and will correct at some point... 250:1 is too much & it should be at least something like 75:1 if you think NFT history matters
-I think
@tensor_hq continues to follow Blur's playbook & drops a version of NFT lending soon, making
@SharkyFi obsolete
-I think we'll see a major shake up in onchain lending markets for fungible tokens in 2024. I think people way overestimate the "moat" Aave and Compound have... I think with both Robert and Stani gone to focus on their next start ups those teams stop innovating or meaningfully slow down. My best bet is that
@eulerfinance's v2 really changes the game here - they are one of the only teams that has the brainpower in both economics and computer science to make novel contributions to onchain lending.
-I think certain BRC-20s run up as Bitcoin has its moment in the spotlight, this won't be because the tech matters that much but more because exchanges want to represent BRC-20s as a category for the volume and novelty.
$TRAC is one coin that has some theoretical use and is interesting to me - it has yet to be listed anywhere meaningful. But man, buying stuff onchain on Bitcoin is laughably difficult 🤣
-I think if
@udiWertheimer ever actually launches Taproot Wizards they do better than people expect because Bitcoiners still have the most capital onchain of any L1 community & as we've seen in Ethereum land people will do stupid things and spend stupid amounts of money to own status symbols.
-It seems like
@TokenReactor and
@redactedcartel (coins I lost money on in the past 😂) might actually make comebacks with their liquidity & LSD focused products coming out respectively. Not entirely sure how this shakes out, but the teams seem to have been building this whole time and that could actually surprise people when old tickers start pumping vs. just the "new coin gud" thesis.
-I think
@LootRealms ends up giga sending both because it will be a cool ecosystem + it'll be the only interesting alt on Starknet, which means I think it will behave similarly to how
@Treasure_DAO did in early Arbitrum history. Liquid alt, proxy exposure to underlying chain, NGU.
-I find the
@Blast_L2 stuff somewhat distasteful to be honest, but I do think they are just taking crypto to it's logical end state, ripping off the veil, and simply going max ponzi. The points per second thing with staking is 😅
-On this point, I find it interesting that
@PacmanBlur and the team are basically trying to own the whole stack & become a "prime brokerage" for all NFT finance related activities. I think we see Blast become the degen chain for a season because of this, while
@ourZORA probably grows as more of an arts & culture L2 in parallel.
-I'm very bullish on
@monad_xyz because it gives ETH & EVM maxi types an intellectually coherent way to be pro integrated systems/parallelization without needing to capitulate to Solana + the SVM & its rise
-
$TAO is being shilled a lot right now, but I do think it does well as a core AI infra coin... it's often easier to just own some of the market leader vs. buying forks and adjacent shitcoins
-People who talk about Solana having value accrual issues would do well to check out 2019 crypto twitter... where the popular view was that ETH had no value and was just "digital oil" & given that, folks should store value in BTC and only convert to ETH when they needed to. Then the narrative changed. These coins don't have value because there's a burn and shit... put your excel spreadsheets away. Everything is just tokenized attention h/t
@QwQiao for the term. When common beliefs change about a coin's value, the price changes... Those beliefs have started to change about Sol, what happens to price in the next 12-18 months will follow suit.
-
@pudgypenguins end up as the only additional "veblen good" PFP on ETH this cycle beyond Punks (and maybe Apes) i.e. something that people buy to flex status. They have the right mix of history + holders with huge reach + new ideas for toys and games and things.
That's all for now, if you made it this far and actually read all that writing, feel free to hit me up anytime with a DM & say hi 🫵👑
Good luck out there + goodnight ✌️