Washington Policy Strategist for Fundstrat. Headed gov't relations for JPMC during 21 years career at bank. Ran House and Senate offices @Fundstrat @tomblock_fs
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My Fundstrat colleague and head of research Tom Lee tells CNBC today that 2025 will be good environment for small and mid-cap companies. cnb.cx/4gvTw70
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A much overlooked part of Zelensky Trump call was Zelensky letting Trump know up front he stayed at Trump property in NYC. Zelensky read his briefing memo.
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In 1968 along with student Pres. Luiz Simmons we started political union at AU. Looking for a name and thinking of Kennedy’s famous AU speech we called it Kennedy Political Union (KPU). As the first director I am very proud the KPU is still active at AU today.
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Late in the day, holiday tomorrow, but thought I’d share today’s appearance on CNBC by my Fundstrat colleague and head of research Tom Lee. Always interesting!
cnbc.com/video/2025/07/03/fu…
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I believe that the Warner/Portman and Wyden/Toomey staff are working to find compromise and get WH out of the bind they created by taking a position on this issue.
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Janet Yellen is a solid person who I think doesn’t have a harsh partisan tone to her, which is what I think Biden is looking for. Mnuchin did a good job in a very difficult situation, keeping relations open with Pelosi and Yellen can do the same thing with Senate Republicans.
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As a native Cincinnatian and an assistant in DC for Cincinnati US Rep Bill Keating in the 70s a project I got to work on was saving Union Terminal and the fantastic mosaic murals. This summer I went to Cincy and showed the saved bldg to my grandson.
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Funny AF 1 story actually AF 2. As a young Cong aide did a memo for VP Ford and I was asked to join him on flight on AF2. Excited to be on big presidential AF plane. But it was energy crisis and this is plane I flew on with VP.
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One time talking to a Japanese banker he made the same point that due to culture and language Japan had not had the success of USA in attracting immigrants. It is infusion of manpower, creativity, and dreams that immigrants bring to USA and is key to USA success in the future.
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Deal will require bipartisan vote and moving new deadline until 2025 is a big get for Ds. R House bill had end date of 3/31/24. This is worth a lot for Ds to get.
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Debt ceiling off to the White House. Following bipartisan House vote Senate votes 63 to 36 to suspend debt ceiling until 2025. Big deal to take this out of the political debate for 2 years.
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Hate to be a broken record but don’t listen to my Fundstrat colleague Tom Lee at your own risk-his track record is pretty darn good.
"We’ve probably made the low for the first half of 2022," says Tom Lee of @fundstrat.
Here's what he's expecting for stocks in the months ahead.
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I met Tom when we were both at JPM, very proud to be on his team today at Fundstrat. Boy 4750 sure seems like a great call today!!!!
At the start of the year, many strategists were bearish, except for one... @fundstrat's Tom Lee. The "Oracle of Optimism" explains why he had the highest year-end S&P 500 target, and why he was so right.
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A weekend non policy post on visit to the Museum of the Southern Jewish Experience in New Orleans where I ran into my great grandfather Isaac Bernheim. The display on Jewish peddlers features his iconic picture as he began his life in America.
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House Rs are pushing forward with a vote tonight on their Budget Resolution to jumpstart the Trump program, Trump tax cuts, and lifting the debt ceiling. With a House count of 217Rs to 215Ds they can only lose 1 vote to prevail. One NO vote already can Johnson pull this off?
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During my tenure on Capitol Hill I was a staffer for one Presidential inauguration with many high powered constituents coming in for the occasion, unimportant constituents generally didn’t get inauguration tickets. Good luck to staffers sorting this out on Monday!
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In my view, it is hard to overstate the importance of the Friday speech at Jackson Hole by Chair Powell and the tone set as the Fed starts to plan for the September meeting. The FOMC will see August numbers on the state of the economy prior to the September rate decision.
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Visiting the D-day beaches, walking down the path to the beach, looking out to sea and looking at land it seems unbelievable that the allies had the courage and skill to succeed.
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Wow +835 Buy the invasion call. Proud to be on Fundstrat team!
Markets may have bottomed a investors 'buy the invasion,' Fundstrat's Tom Lee says cnb.cx/3sje5wM
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As a Fundstrat team member I get Tom’s sage advice daily, become a client and get it daily.
How much more does the record-setting rally have in the tank? @fundstrat's Tom Lee weighs in:
cnbc.com/video/2025/08/08/to…
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Having worked at JPM for 20+ years and now with Tom Lee (JPM alum) seems like the pros see the economy in a good place.
Is the US currently in recession? 'Not at all': Jamie Dimon yahoo.trib.al/rnrhcJD by @DsHollers
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Biden to talk with Xi tomorrow. These calls usually have orchestrated outcomes so expect some news, likely related to Ukraine, maybe trade too, coming out of call.
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Good news indeed. Bill should pass Senate tonight and government shutdown will be avoided. New deadline March 14, 2025 when Republicans will control both Congress and the White House.
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Public policy and market analysts were greatly anticipating the major speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole annual conference by Chair Jerome Powell. He didn’t disappoint and sent a clear signal that a policy pivot as early as the September FOMC meeting was possible.
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With geopolitical concerns front and center my Fundstrat colleague and head of research Tom Lee was on CNBC today. Potential headlines tomorrow as Fed chair testifies before House Committee.
cnbc.com/video/2025/06/23/fu…
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I was in study hall when the announcement was made and reading a Time magazine article about the just slain President. The event, Oswald assassination, and funeral were very emotional days for a middle schooler.
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This is just one example of why it is so much fun and so rewarding to work with Tom and the team at Fundstrat
Last week, we advised our clients to 'lean into the weakness' -- advice that was quickly derided
- S&P 500 making new 'all time highs' today
Stop guessing, get the 'first word' at FSinsight.com @fs_insight
PS: Stop "shouting at the market"
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Expect virus relief bill to start to take form next week. Should pass no later than August 7. Supplemental UI, stimulus check, ppp, state and local government focus k-12, liability, health insurance all in the mix #stimuluschecks, #congress, #coronavirus
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I work with Tom today at Fundstrat, and we were colleagues at JPM, his market insights are worth listening to.
More signs that “bad news priced in” as stocks gained in the face of poor @ADP jobs.
- Friday is Feb jobs and may trigger return of both Fed “put” and Trump “put”
Great speaking with @ScottWapnerCNBC on @CNBCClosingBell
@fs_insight @FundstratCap $GRNY
#wednesdaythought $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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House passed 335 to 91 a 45 day clean CR. No Ukraine money is only demand Rs got. No spending cuts, no policy initiatives, money White House requested for disasters, expiring FAA and flood insurance renewed. Senate likely to pass CR prior to midnight deadline.
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I’m assuming that the really big decisions like the Presidential immunity will come the last day of the session as they leave town.
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I tell my kids and young people I mentor to be very careful of what you post. Employers can see it, for elected officials voters are employers.
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I remember this day well as I was House Republican staffer trying to navigate Watergate for my boss. Absolute Presidential immunity was not one of the options we were looking at. We did support policy immunity ie bombing of Cambodia which was dropped from bill of impeachment.
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Oh Oh I live 14 miles north of Mar-a-Lago and I am going to open the door to see if I hear screaming.
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My first job was as a speech writer for a US Senate candidate. I think to write Pres Trump’s speech to Congress will be a huge challenge. So much to say: Shutdown, tariffs, Reconciliation, peace for Ukraine, immigration, crypto policy, DOGE cuts, etc. Where does the speech start
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From my House aide days I wonder how McCarthy supporters who want good committee assignments will feel about the hostage takers getting plum posts. For many committees are key to their service and not getting to move up is tough.
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And after working with Tom at JPM I now get to work with him at Fundstrat. Lucky me!
I just read that @fundstrat just passed $2B with their $GRNY ETF. I couldn't be happier for Tom and his team. I look at the components all the time to see if I'm missing something (the answer is yes). It's hard to build a franchise in an industry as competitive and established as Wall St. @fundstrat started from scratch just over a decade ago. I remember how it started. Tom works his ass off, I've seen that first hand (someone needs to ask him about his old "cel stat" model). He'll be wrong on the market eventually, but he deserves a tremendous amount of respect.
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My 9/11 story. Neil Levin Exec Dir of WTC was a friend. We met regularly. 10 yrs ago when cleaning up I found this badge which for some reason I didn’t throw away after our last lunch. Neil died when the building fell as he was trying to get people out of the building.
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Being about the same age as the President I was a Congressional aide during Watergate when the President was learning the ropes of real estate from his father. I wonder if the President forgot how Bob Woodward became a famous journalist.
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Looks like Democrats will accept McConnell's offer for a short-term fix for the debt ceiling and postpone deadline until December. Remember CR keeping government open until 12/3 so exciting days before Christmas.
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After a week of dramatic market ups and downs, tensions in the Middle East, and the two national tickets settled after Walz is selected as the D VP candidate it’s time to hear from my Fundstrat colleague Tom Lee today on CNBC.
Stocks are back in the green to close out the volatile week on Wall Street, close to fully reversing the week's losses. Here's why @fundstrat believes "the worst is behind us" for the market:
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Watching old Seinfeld where his nana goes to Chemical Bank which hired me in 1987. Lots of buzz when the bank made Seinfeld. We then became JP Morgan Chase. Chemical Bank - lots of good memories.
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Political stability and rule of law are central reasons the $USD is the reserve currency for global trade. Try resolving a dispute in the Chinese legal system with the government on the other side.
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Seems like the bank misses the Chief Equity Strategist they had when I was there. I think his name was something Lee.
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As I tweeted a few days ago one ignores Tom Lee at their own peril. Proud of my Fundstrat colleagues, Great Calls!
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My Fundstrat colleague Tom Lee looks at markets in wake of Trump’s victory.
Four central banks will meet tomorrow to discuss interest rates, including the Federal Reserve.
Tom Lee (@fundstrat) on why tomorrow's Fed meeting is important.
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Last night by a vote of 217Y to 215N the House passed Pres. Trump’s “one big beautiful bill.” Last week the Senate passed a bill that didn’t include Trump tax program or increase in the debt ceiling. Now they have to reconcile them and pass one bill to move the Trump program.
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Here’s the problem: the House is going to be under tremendous pressure to accept the Senate bill. Any changes and the bill goes back to the Senate and again faces 60 vote requirement. Opening it up to one amendment opens it up to lots of amendments. Watch Speaker Pelosi.
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Hate to be repetitious but it is very rewarding working with Tom and the Fundstrat team.
What will it take to keep stocks moving even higher from here? @fundstrat weighs in:
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Wow peek 1/9 the same day Fundstrat’s tireless Ken forecast last week. Could Fundstrat be ahead of the curve.
New estimates from researchers at Columbia University suggest that the omicron wave in the United States could peak by Jan. 9 at around 2.5 million covid cases per week, though that number may go as high as 5.4 million. @azeen nytimes.com/live/2021/12/31/…
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Looks like a week to fasten your seatbelt.
The combination of:
+ President @realDonaldTrump signs relief bill
+ #COVID19 cases rolling over (@ScottGottliebMD)
+ growing “market topping” commentary (countertrade consensus)
+ year-end positive seasonals
= Santa Claus rally intact
Could be fireworks this week
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So rewarding to work at Fundstrat and have colleagues like Mark.
"The market is healthy on an intermediate-term basis," Fundstrat Global Advisors global head of technical strategy @MarkNewtonCMT says. "It's important to point out [that] this is no 2021 where we saw only tech leading and everything else lagging."
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I’ve known Tom since we were colleagues at JPM and now working with him at Fundstrat. His thoughts and ideas on the market usually end up being on the money.
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Last week was in DC and went up to the Capitol and saw the Henry Clay statue given by my great grandfather to Statuary Hall. He visited Capitol in 1925 and when realizing KY had no statue worked with legislature to present Clay statue. Only state statue given by an individual.
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Let me add what a pleasure it is to work with Tom. I've known Tom since we were colleagues at JPM and reading Fundstrat notes gives clients a leg-up on markets.
OH MY GOSH!!!! @fundstrat Tom Lee followed me with plenty of others. Thank you all so much for making my day! Please make sure to follow @fundstrat because his notes that he puts out are 💯💯💯💯
This is a great way to start off a Tuesday!
Thanks again all!
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Happy to be at Fundstrat and get to work with Tom Lee. We started our partnership at JPM and I am still learning from him.
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Tom giving CNBC viewers advice he gives to Fundstrat clients everyday.
Should investors expect a 10% market correction in the near-term? @fundstrat weighs in.
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Debt ceiling: we have a plan. Only a Senate rules geek like me might follow but there's a bill that would have a one time rule for a debt increase with only 51 votes-hitch it requires 60 votes to pass the new, rule. Mitch needs 9 more Rs to join him, he's looking. Stay tuned.
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With Trump/Putin tomorrow and Powell at Jackson Hole next week a lot of headline risk, good time to listen to Tom.
🎉Tom Lee LIVE on @CNBCClosingBell today at 3PM ET! 🔔@Fundstrat’s Head of Research breaks down the latest market moves and what’s ahead📈
📺 Don’t miss it - tune in this afternoon!
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My Fundstrat colleague takes sober look at first week but holds to positive year. Congress returns next week with full agenda and first 2024 elections coming my beat of DC poses headline risk I will be writing about.
Why @fundstrat says he's not wavering from his bullish view on the market despite a rocky start to the year for stocks:
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Leadership wants this issue resolved: Wyden, Toomey, Portman, Warner and others are among most respected Senators. Sure they are under big time pressure to find an agreement that can pass tomorrow under UC.
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This is a very significant win for the Speaker and his team. Vote count won’t improve with time.
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I remember Tom recommending Bitcoin at $8000, now he recommends energy-one of many reasons it is so rewarding working at Fundstrat.
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My colleague and Fundstrat chief strategist has been way ahead of the curve with his energy call, time to pay attention if you aren’t already.
ENERGY is the best performing S&P 500 sector YTD!
Is it time to HODL ... or not? 🤔
READ THE FULL STORY!
ow.ly/X5CI50F11oY
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I was a young House R staffer when Ford was R Leader and he was a really good guy. I also prepared R Senate candidates for debates, and still remember cringing when Ford freed Eastern Europe from Soviet control.
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BBB and Manchin. As Hill aide I learned that knowing constituent interests was a core part of my job. BBB is billed as historic climate and hence not good for coal. Manchin knows WV voters so removing anti-coal stuff critical to an eventual bill. Kids, Rx yes, climate no.
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At times of challenging markets Tom Lee and the Fundstrat team are giving solid, data proven advice on where markets may be headed. DC is a factor with the next Fed FOMC decision May 1 and Congress working on military aid bill.
5 signs the painful "de-leveraging" process might be nearing an end. 👀🔚
De-leveraging likely accelerated recently as the speed of stock declines accelerated today.
Get the FIRST WORD from @fundstrat 's Tom Lee only at FS Insight! 🙌🏻🔥
fsinsight.com/macro-strategy…
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Soft CPI is significant news in DC as this is the number most followed by the press and politicians. When I worked in politics CPI was the number elected officials get asked about by their constituents. Big deal.
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DC reports strong job numbers and dock workers back at the ports, while election remains close it is a good time to listen to my Fundstrat colleague Tom Lee on CNBC today.
Will October be a trick or treat for investors?
@fs_insight Managing Director @fundstrat is watching the $VIX as an indicator of how much the market could rally: "It's hard to say this is a green light into year-end."
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In NYC for meetings at Fundstrat and JPM alumni reception. As always stopped by to see progress on JPMC new headquarters at 270 Park. 2 Million sqft bldg replacing 1 million sqft bldg where I worked.
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Went to same school in Cincy as Rob Portman so always follow his key votes and this shows courage comes with retirement.
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I am biased working with Tom but he is really good at translating complex theory into understandable and actionable language as he did yesterday with his Takeaway piece.
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For the last several years it has been fun being part of Tom's Fundstrat team, but golly call for S&P at 4750 when we sit at 4720 pretty exciting place to be!! Good to listen to Tom and Fundstrat.
Great speaking with @jonfortt and Morgan on @CNBCClosingBell
- lots of opportunities in 2024
- small-caps and regional banks on lower rates $IWM $KRE
- #bitcoin on easing #Fed and possible spot #ETF
@fs_insight
#ThursdayMotivation
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Looks like Tom and my former employer JPM is coming around to the story Tom Lee has been telling for some time now.
JPMORGAN: ".. if this is the start of a new trend in vehicle insurance, it would be a meaningful development ..
".. we are tracking a soft 0.13% increase in the May core #PCE index .."
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My Fundstrat colleague was up early on CNBC this morning and talked markets outlook. Tom’s positive view of small caps helped by Fed cuts coming and signals expected next week when Fed’s FOMC meets with statement Weds at 2:00pm.
Probabilities favor #smallcaps strong August
- $IWM > +/-1% 10 of 11 days
- 12x since 1979 (ex-bears)
- 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M higher 12 of 12
$SPY likely taking ‘breather’ after strong 1H
Great speaking with @JoeSquawk @BeckyQuick on @SquawkCNBC
#thursdaymorning
@fs_insight
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I spend time in Kentucky and I don't think there's a chance Mitch is running for re-election in 2026. In fact the question is will he finish his term as a non-leader rank and file Senator.
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I have admired Tom since we both worked at JPM and being his colleague at Fundstrat and the great team Fundstrat has built is a true privilege.
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If the Trump ballon ever breaks Cheney is going to be positioned as the best national leader to put the Party back together again.
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When I was a House CoS my boss drilled into me that I had to watch the various accounts very closely. One of my jobs was to make sure we didn’t make a stupid mistake with these rules heavy accounts from franking to travel and office expenses.
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Her ouster and standing up to McCarthy and company only confirms that Liz Cheney is clearly the leader of the Not Trump lane in the Republican Party, the question is whether or not such a lane exists.
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I was CoS for a moderate Republican US House member who felt if he voted to impeach he'd lose the primary, and if he didn't he'd lose the general. A Congressional friend popped into the office the next day saying: "taken off the hook!" Watched at home.
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Unlike Senate where resignations are filled via appointment a House seat can only be filled with a special election and the odds of D winning are likely very high. With 4 seat majority McCarthy and crew will fight to keep every seat including the mysterious Mr. Santos.
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In 1958 my mother and grandmother took me to DC as even in elementary school I loved politics. On the Senate subway we sat with Sen. JFK. They told me he was going to run for President. Wish we had an iPhone for picture. Sad anniversary this week.
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Some quick thoughts on Powell presser.
He kept everything on the table for future policy. Said they could raise or hold steady in September.
He made clear that the June CPI was positive but it was only one month and we have to see more. There will be two CPI numbers before the September meeting so the door is clearly open to lower CPI for two months and that would likely lead to a September pause.
I thought his comment that stop raising and indeed a cut in rates could occur before the inflation rate hits 2%. He was strong that cuts were not likely to start this year but clearly opened the door for cuts next year.
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There is beginning to be rumblings about a filibuster carve out for the debt ceiling. Nominations and reconciliation have been carved out and protecting the full faith and credit of the USA seem appropriate to move from 60 to 51. Keep your eyes on Machin and Sinema.
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Pretty big deal. Be aware.
The @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products.
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I keep on thinking of the iconic picture of troops guarding Lincoln Memorial during BLM marches in DC but no such show of force to protect our Capitol, center of American democracy.
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I worked for WHTaft’s grandson Sen. Robert Taft Jr and the Senator’s favorite picture of his grandfather was him playing golf and the story that he needed extra long clubs due to his rotund size. Happy Presidents Day
Did you know that eight of the 46 U.S. Presidents are from Ohio?
Each one, memorialized through high school and street names, demonstrate Ohio exceptionalism.
Happy #PresidentsDay!
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In 2019 when Trump was President 132Rs voted NO on debt ceiling vote, same issue - right flank.
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While I follow DC for Fundstrat I listen to Tom and his market calls that have been pretty amazing this year. Today Tom on CNBC.
Great speaking with @MelissaLeeCNBC @grassosteve @BKBrianKelly on @CNBCFastMoney
- turmoil during week but ending on a great note!
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