Football and Fantasy FB Writer and Data Scientist / Former writer for Football Outsiders, ESPN, PFF, FTN and FanGraphs / @FSWA and Sloan Conference award winner
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Nate Tice
13 of 14 targets!
I didn't think he could catch 13 of 14 targets in a drill, never mind a real game!
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Whenever Tyrone Tracy breaks a tackle or has an explosive run like this one, I look up where he stands in the corresponding metric. And Devin Singletary is invariably as high or higher.
Can a film person explain what makes Tracy clearly better (if he is)?
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To be fair, they would look closer if C.J. Stroud had real weapons like Jalen Coker and Adam Thielen
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Rookie #Bengals tight end Erick All leads an impressive list of the tight ends with the highest open separation rates in the first 5 weeks per @FTNFantasy.
I'm stashing All in every dynasty league I can.
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Saquon Barkley has 316 yards on carries where he didn't avoid a tackle and never saw contact. Derrick Henry is 2nd with 109 "easy" yards.
Barkley has gained 21.1% of his yards on those easy carries. Joe Mixon is 2nd with a 9.2% easy rate.
Give the Eagles infrastructure the MVP.
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That means Derrick Henry came within 0.17 mph of Xavier Worthy's top speed on his 54-yard touchdown catch today while weighing an extra 82 pounds, insane
Patrick Mahomes' 54-yard touchdown pass to Xavier Worthy traveled 62.2 yards in the air, Mahomes' longest completion by air distance of his career.
Worthy reached a top speed of 21.46 mph, the 3rd-fastest play by a ball carrier this season.
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Adam Schefter
Antonio Gibson is literally the only running back with fewer attempts per fumble than Rhamondre Stevenson since the latter entered the league in 2021 lol
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Josh Allen's rushing attempts through 6 games:
2020: 37
2021: 44
2022: 47
2023: 22
The #Bills seem to finally be sacrificing some regular season potential to try to keep Allen healthy for a playoff run.
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Notable backfield snap share splits from Week 1:
Kyren Williams📈
Rhamondre Stevenson📈
Tony Pollard📈
J.K. Dobbins📈
Zamir White📉
Blake Corum📉
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Rome Odunze has had no chance to catch 62.1% of his targeted air yards this season.
Former Deshaun Watson target Amari Cooper is the only other one of the 45 wide receivers with 800 or more air yards with an uncatchable rate over 60%.
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Jacobs is 10th in yards after contact per attempt and 11th in avoided tackle rate among the 46 RBs with 100 or more carries.
Jacobs' EPA ranking says more about the Packers schedule (2nd hardest per DVOA) than it does about Jacobs' efficiency.
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Amari Cooper's catchable end zone targets in 2024:
With the Browns: 2
With the Bills: 1
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𝐃𝐈𝐄-𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐃 🦅 𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐋 𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐄
Drake Maye is leading quarterbacks with a 91.9% accuracy percentage in 2024 per @FTNFantasy
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It's weird to me that every NFL quarterback is willing to do the "tush push" since Jalen Hurts showed its effectiveness but no NBA players will shoot free throws underhanded even though Rick Barry has the 8th highest free throw percentage in league history
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Amari Cooper saw 455 uncatchable air yards the first 6 weeks, the most among wide receivers per @FTNFantasy
So the trade market is heating up fast and the latest move is Amari Cooper going to the #Bills from the #Browns, who get a third-round pick as part of a pick swap in the deal.
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Terry McLaurin has scored a TD on 16.3% of his catches this season.
That's about 1 out of 6. It's outrageous.
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Zach Wilson wasn't just a little less accurate than other 2022 starters. His 18.6% inaccurate pass percentage was an outlier relative to the rest of the bottom 10 passers between 11.6% and 13.8% per @FTNData.
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Rookie TE Target Share Leaders in Week 4:
Dalton Kincaid 20% 👀
Sam LaPorta 19%
Nate Adkins 8%
Luke Schoonmaker 8%
Josh Whyle 8%
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Telling Doug Pederson he has to beat the Lions with Mac Jones to keep his job is high comedy
Change appears to be coming for the #Jaguars. Facing one of the NFL’s best teams, with a backup QB and losers of 4 of 5, it likely comes sooner rather than later.
My story on what’s next in Jacksonville: nfl.com/news/jaguars-could-s…
nfl.com/news/jaguars-could-s…
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No wonder Jameis Winston loves Cedric Tillman. He's Baby Mike Evans:
Tillman 6'3 / 213 lbs / 4.54s 40 time
Evans 6'5 / 230 lbs / 4.53s 40 time
Seven Rounds in Heaven
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Those sorts of splits aren't super uncommon when one back sees his work skewed heavily toward early downs, is it?
And Jacobs does have the 12th best rushing DVOA rate and ranks just below Saquon there at 6.5% vs. 8.6% (the Eagles had the easiest offensive schedule).
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Khalil Shakir's snap share by week:
Week 1: 10%
Week 2: 15%
Week 3: 24%
Week 4: 28%
Week 5: 32%
Week 6: 39%
@Chris_Rime
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Jameson Williams is younger than first-round rookie receivers Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Legette
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jclrk05
Saquon Barkley was hit in the backfield on 46.6% of his carries in 2023, the 3rd highest rate of regular RBs per @FTNFantasy.
D'Andre Swift was hit in the backfield on 27.9% of his carries in 2023, the lowest rate of regular RBs.
Former Giants RB Saquon Barkley reached agreement with the Philadelphia Eagles on a three-year, $37.75 million contract that could be worth up to $46.75M and includes $26M fully guaranteed at signing, per sources.
Barkley now beats the franchise tag number and has a maximum average-per-year salary of $15.833M, which would be second highest for a RB in NFL History.
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I’m excited to announce I've joined @FTNNetwork as a content provider and data analyst; I will both work @FTNFantasy and help expand our NFL Data products, and will also rejoin some favorite former colleagues in @JeffRatcliffe, @LoechnerNFL, and @danieltkelley
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That was James Cook's 2nd fumble on 241 career touches.
Leonard Fournette has 2 fumbles on 1,140 touches since 2018.
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Bryce Young threw for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns against this #Packers defense just 4 weeks ago
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For further context on this one, Tracy and Singletary both now have 3 explosive carries (15-plus yards) this season.
And Singletary has a 5.7% explosive run rate since 2022 that is tied for 7th highest among RBs with 300-plus carries with Derrick Henry and D'Andre Swift.
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Jonathon Brooks SZN?
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Cowboys fans when the team denied the Bears' request to interview Mike McCarthy for their head coach opening:
Ben Brown 🌻
ESPN Source: The Dallas Cowboys denied permission to the Chicago Bears to interview their head coach Mike McCarthy.
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Derrick Henry may be 29 years old with a massive career workload, but he has yet to show any decline. His 22.1% broken tackle rate was 6th best among regular RBs in 2022.
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Every Isaac Guerendo carry I see, I become more confused that his coaches have decided he wasn't their team's best running back each of the last 7 seasons
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Everyone kills the #Panthers for drafting Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud, but don't sleep on their taking Terrace Marshall over Nico Collins
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Josh Jacobs' season stats:
2023: 270 touches, 1,101 yards, 6 TDs
2024: 225 touches, 1,130 yards, 8 TDs
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Billy M
Panthers GM Dan Morgan after everyone roasted him for trading Diontae Johnson for a 5th-round pick swap two months ago:
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I was typing up a 28-3 Falcons joke, but the Cowboys scored again before I could even finish. That's tough.
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Najee ran a 4.45s 40 at his pro day. At his 230 pounds, that nets him one of the highest speed scores in the NFL.
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McDermott knows that you want to be down by 10 points to the Ravens at the start of the 4th quarter
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Updated Bijan Robinson touchdown vulture rankings:
1. Tyler Allgeier
2. Cordarrelle Patterson
3. Desmond Ridder
4. Jonnu Smith
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So you think Tracy will have a similar broken tackle rate and better explosive run and yards after contact rates in time?
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Khalil Shakir entered Week 8 with a 40.3% receiving DVOA that was 5th best among WRs with 20 or more targets.
And he had a 55.0% DVOA in 2023 that was the best among WRs with 45 or more targets.
He's super underrated.
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Russell Wilson's 5.2% highlight throw rate is 2nd best behind just Josh Allen at 5.6% in 2024 per @FTNFantasy.
No other regular quarterback is at even 4.0%.
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Melvin Gordon has fumbled every 70 touches in his career.
Dalvin Cook has fumbled every 75 touches in his career.
Gus Edwards has fumbled every 120 touches in his career.
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I can't believe how much time we wasted in the offseason worrying what the Bills would look like without Stefon Diggs when they still had Ty Johnson and Dawson Knox
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Puka Nacua produced 43% of his yards after the catch (639 of 1,486) per @FTNFantasy
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Eagles rushing attempts from the 1-yard line in 2023-24:
Jalen Hurts: 23
Saquon Barkley: 2
And that's it.
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Gardner Minshew has a 43-14 TD-INT ratio for his career
nitter.app/WatchingUPeople/status…
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Rookie #Steelers RB Najee Harris played 100% of the team's offensive snaps in Week 1. The full list of RBs that played 100% of snaps in a game from 2018-20: McCaffrey (14 times), Le'Veon Bell (2), Elliott (1), Gurley (1), Barkley (1), and Fournette (1).
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Patrick Mahomes has now suffered 20 drops on pass attempts thrown into the red zone since 2022, 7 more than Trevor Lawrence in 2nd place at the position
Arye Pulli
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Puka Nacua averaged 6.4 yards after the catch in 2023, the highest among wide receivers with 50 or more catches.
Rams rookie Jordan Whittington played every snap in the 2nd half of Week 2 after Cooper Kupp went down, and he did this in the preseason:
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George Pickens has 3 of the 5 most impressive catches of the season and yet doesn't even have 50 catches yet, it's crazy
Pittsburgh Steelers
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When the unexpected Brian Robinson inactive forced you to start Ray Davis in fantasy:
RAY DAVIS. 63-yard TD for the lead!
📺: #MIAvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: atnfl.co/watch
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Carson Steele has broken a tackle every 6.5 carries with the Chiefs this season.
Kareem Hunt broke a tackle every 3.9 carries with the Chiefs in his rookie 2017 season.
Daniel Lynch IV Lover
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At least Caleb completed more passes to his left than Mitchell Trubisky did in his Bears career
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Everyone will forget the nuance of this Lamar Jackson playoff loss just like they forgot the nuance of a bunch of Peyton Manning's early playoff losses with Mike Vanderjagt missed kicks
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I'm preemptively claiming the stat that Keaton Mitchell and his father could the first undrafted father-son combination to win Super Bowls for the same team in their rookie seasons.
Must credit me if the #Ravens win it this year.
Baltimore Ravens
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My post-draft dynasty rookie rankings:
1. Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
2. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
3. Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC (📈1)
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA (📉1)
5. Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
6. Zay Flowers, WR, BLT (📈3)
7. Anthony Richardson, QB, IND (📈3)
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JuJu Smith-Schuster's early KUBIAK projections @fboutsiders
93-966-7.1 (13th WR)
Smith-Schuster has been looking to rediscover the magic of his breakout 2018 season, and he may have found it in KC with Mahomes at QB and with Hill and Kelce drawing a lot of defensive attention.
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