IU Kelley🦬 OK State 🤠 Memphis🐯 Finance Professor 🎓 Financial Author 📙 The Kind Of Crazy You Want On Your Side 🤪 - Emmy Rhoads ❤️
Chicago, IL + Commute to IU
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I have gotten several questions about investing in gold from undergrads lately, that may be a sell signal as well...
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$VIX averaged 26.40 for the first half of 2022. This was the 13th year since 1990 that VIX averaged over 20 for the first half of the year. Historically the subsequent second half average for VIX is over 20 as well.
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Bold prediction - tomorrow $VIX moves back over 20.00 - typically there is a bit of a tailwind for VIX following a 3 day weekend. Table has a little history of VIX price action on first day after long weekend versus price action on the first day after a two day weekend.
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The 1-Day $SPX at-the-money straddle overpriced the daily move all five days last week. I think that's a first since daily options were launched last year.
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This may very well be a #bitcoin and #crypto game changer from the @NYSE @bakktapp fortune.com/longform/nyse-ow…
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Of Interest - Buyer of 25,000 $VIX Nov 50 Calls at 0.80 today - I think they are opening based on the historical trading action in this specific contract.
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Anyone want some reading material? Here'a link for the filing for a new ETF that'll be just like $TVIX - it's not a replacement, just a new 2x $VIX futures product using an ETF structure - cdn.cboe.com/resources/regul…
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Finally got around to writing something up about the two huge $VIX 1 x 2 put spreads from this morning.
eqderivatives.com/commentary…
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Introduction To Cboe Volatility Index or How I Teach $VIX In Deriva... piped.video/zRHAemW2mPg?si=88fo…
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I created a quick video for my derivatives class at @LoyolaQuinlan discussing the #silversqueeze from 1979 - 1980 that the Hunt Brother orchestrated. Maybe worth a watch before trading kicks off this week. $SLV piped.video/7tzkvWxjZ8M
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We are 10 consecutive days into $VIX backwardation based on VIX > Mo1 > Mo2. Only a handful of times this has happened before.
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After just under 10 years at @CBOE I start Monday in my new role at TABB Group @TABBGroup with my work appearing on that site as well as on the @TabbFORUM - my time at Cboe was great and I leave with nothing but appreciation and gratitude for all Cboe allowed me to do.
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In this weekend's @EQDerivatives Saturday Review we take a look at 2022 expected versus realized volatility for $SPX, $NDX, and $RUT highlighting where the option market has missed the mark so far in 2022.
eqderivatives.com/commentary…
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Lots of planes over #Turkey if Bruce Willis doesn't solve this thing they will start running out of fuel
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Anyone done a wellness check on @ChiPartyAunt?
There's a naked woman on my bus and the only thing the bus driver did was yell at her to put on her mask. I'm dying.
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Someone expecting a Thanksgiving surprise???
Buyer of 6,487 $VXX Nov 27th 38 Calls @ 0.05 on the tape.
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For all the $VIX traders, the first settlement after the 2008 spike was in October 2008 - the night before spot VIX closed at 53.11 and the Oct Future closed at 52.80 - settlement came in the next morning at 63.04. Be careful out there.
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CBOE $SKEW closed at an all-time high today thanks to @RyanDetrick for making me do Friday night work or I would have missed this $SPX $VIX
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Here goes (I'm gonna regret this) - I am developing a weekly video covering the Global Equity Derivatives and Volatility Markets for EQDerivatives - trying to come up with a good title. Anything with my name in it or the word Weekly doesn't work. Best idea gets a copy of this
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I grew up in Memphis and my parent's dream was for me to be a FedEx delivery driver. Maybe I should have gone in that direction.
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We all know the $VIX curve has a big bump to the upside with the October contact elevated. I pulled the Oct futures Open Interest on the last day of January from 2012 to 2020. It is definitely 'different this time'
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You can find the delayed futures quotes starting Sunday night at cboe.com/bitcoin #Bitcoin $XBT @Cboe
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Last time $VIX dipped below 10.00 was in 2007 - we've done it three days in 2017 so far - side by side - note how the balance of 2007 went
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One of my favorite $VIX trades pops up for the second day in a row - Buy 10,000 Dec 23 Puts for 2.08 / Sell 20,000 Dec 20 Puts for 0.47 each - net cost = 1.14. Yesterday's cost was 1.12. VIX Dec settlement at 20.00 means trader can buy the GI Joe with the Kung Fu Grip...
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Anyone else find the recent correlated move in #Bitcion and the USD/CNY rate interesting? Bitcoin a flight to quality or safety for Chinese investors?
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Our $VIX > 20 streak ended on Friday - I hate when that happens before a three day weekend. A little more discussion about how the weekend impacts volatility indexes in a video @EQDerivatives put out Thursday. piped.video/3Ho4bfGEj7M
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The $TSLA price action is a great lesson in buying puts (or other risk defined strategies) versus shorting a stock when you have a bearish opinion. Especially on a stock that has a cult like following.
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Last week $VIX call / put ratio closed over 5 for the 4th time this year, some called it a bearish signal, in today's @EQDerivatives Saturday Review we explain why that's not right. Chart shows call / put ratio + $VVIX level when the ratio closed over 5.
eqderivatives.com/commentary…
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List of $VIX rising 25%+ in a single day since '07 on avg 50% of the move is retraced in 7 days, some have taken longer. 50% of 2/24 move 21.055 & 2/27 move 33.36. Thinking of shorting? Keep this in mind with Mar VIX future at 26.10. Yellow = 25% move w/o a prev retracement.
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I want to know where these geniuses land after college so I can buy the stock.
Girl Scouts selling cookies in Chicago.
In front of the weed store.
#ROI #Business
#sundayvibes
#Sunday
#Chicago #weed
#Marijuana #Cannabis
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Since it looks like Silver will be getting a lot of attention next week here's a brief list of Silver related ETFs $SLV
#silversqueeze
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Damn! Yuge 1 x 2 spread in $VIX - Buying 59,757 VIX Mar 21 Puts at 1.74 and selling 119,514 VIX Mar 17 Puts for 0.45 - net cost of 0.84 a spread.
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Today was the 579th all time high for the S&P 500 since January 1990 - here's the distribution of $VIX closing prices by handle on those dates. Note today's 21 is not too much of an outlier...
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Long term $VIX average is around 20 - since 1990 most common close has a 12 handle #themoreyouknow
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The national debt = $28 trillion. If Bitcoin goes to $1.5 million we can pay that off with crypto. I think there's nothing to worry about here.
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I decided to go with a bolo tie for my Oklahoma State graduation this weekend (being the Cowboys and all) but all I keep thinking is that I look like the disappointing son from #Yellowstone
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$VIX Price action today is consistent with the other 9 of the top 10 VIX spikes on record (with 1 exception).
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$VIX is currently down just over 20% - this has only happened seven times in the past when VIX closed the day before over 30.00.
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PSA for those holding March $VIX futures and option positions. They settle on the open tomorrow (Tuesday instead of traditional Wednesday) due to Good Friday falling on April 15 this year. #TheMoreYouKnow
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The look you give your producer / director / cameraperson when she forgot to turn on the microphone, since she's only 13 and works for free.
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My father had a woman he loved since high school, when he was 70 her husband passed away. He asked her out and said she needed a year to grieve. He called her a year later and they were together for 16 years until he died.
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Long term (1990 - Q1 2017) $VIX / $SPX correlation is -0.7068 - when VIX is under 11 the correlation contracts to -0.4990 #study #volatility
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Someone expects $VXX to stay above 20.00 through standard November expiration - selling 2925 VXXNov 20 Puts for 1.45 + buying 2925 VXX Nov 19 Puts for 0.97 - net credit of 0.48.
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We are on track for a sub 2% $SPX high low range for the 3rd consecutive trading day. Last time we had three sub 2% range days was Feb 20, 21 and 24 - when all this stuff started.
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I'm finally on the mend and up to playing with numbers. $VIX distribution by 'handle' from 2000 through present. The long term average over the same time period is 20.19
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My daugher's first day without a mask at school since she was a freshman. Her first thought, "I forgot how ugly some people I go to school with are"
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The 'crowded' $VIX short trade that had the markets worried back in October has become a smaller part of VIX open interest of the past couple of months as the non-commercial VIX short interest has dropped
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We did some analysis on the performance of one-day $SPX straddles going back to the beginning of 2022 -
russellrhoads.substack.com/p…
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Yesterday was the 5th biggest $VIX gain since futures were launched. I compared the top 10 VIX moves to the front month future
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Big change in the Leveraged Money part of this week's #Bitcoin futures COT Report. First time positions are net long @Cboe @GeminiDotCom
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I was on the Pro Q&A on The Option Insider Network @Options yesterday and got a good question about having a position that would benefit from a $VIX spike sometime in the next six months. I wrote up a more concise answer here -
russellrhoads.substack.com/p…
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I explain why I think short volatility traders finally started sticking out periods of high $VIX in the past couple of years in this week's Saturday Review -
eqderivatives.com/commentary…
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Today is the 2nd day in a row $VIX Put Volume > Call Volume. It's been four years since we had back to back Put > Call Volume days
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Someone appears to be setting up for the seasonal weakness in $VIX that hits each December - selling 8000 VIX Nov 18 Puts for 0.92, buying 8000 VIX Dec 18 Puts for 1.22 - net cost of 0.30 a spread.
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Playing with $VIX numbers, because it's what I do. Top 10 VIX - Mo1 future spreads on record. 2 of these occurred in the current event. 1 in 2015 (China Black Monday) and the rest in 2008.
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When $VIX and $SPX Rise Together cboeoptionshub.com/2013/04/2… due to requests I will update this tonight
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This was just one block - over 59,000 of the $VIX Nov 50 Calls traded at prices between 0.75 and 0.80 today - 75% of volume was on the offer side, 24% mid market, 1% bid side - I'd say that's an opening buyer...
Of Interest - Buyer of 25,000 $VIX Nov 50 Calls at 0.80 today - I think they are opening based on the historical trading action in this specific contract.
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I spent my weekend digging into the $VOLQ versus $VIX and $NDX realized volatility (and watching golf) - eqderivatives.com/commentary…
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Now that I’m a free agent I can address all things #volatility oriented. $VIX @MIAXexchange @cboe @Nasdaq
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Looking into what index volatility says about the second half - $VIX And Volatility Indicate A Rough Road For Stocks In The 2nd Half piped.video/jK--JItctLc @EQDerivatives
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From the @Cboe archives - what I wrote the day after the election four years ago about overnight trading. $VIX $SPX
cboe.com/blogs/options-hub/2…
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