Tara Moriarty@MoriartyLab

🏳️‍🌈🇨🇦Assoc Prof @UofT. Bloodborne infections, Lyme disease, misinfo. @COVID_19_Canada. Defend journalism. Opinions mine. @MoriartyLab.bsky.social

 Toronto, Ontario
moriartylab.org
Joined August 2016
Please re-share widely to your networks so people have time to move to Bluesky/ask us for help moving.
Tara Moriarty@MoriartyLab
3 Feb 2025
I will be leaving Twitter permanently later this week, after today's Canadian COVID Forecast. I'm now on Bluesky. My handle is the same as here. My profile image says "Product of Canada". If you need help moving to Bluesky please reply here, and we'll get you that help.

ALT Good Bye GIF

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Canadians, I think we all need to hear this tonight: If we had not protected ourselves and each other from COVID-19, more than 500,000 of us would have died. WE have collectively saved more than 500,000 lives. WE did this. Not leaders. US. THIS is who we were and still are.
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And.... The 12-17 year-olds in Canada have now outpaced BOTH the 18-29 and 30-39 year-olds for COVID-19 vaccination. I'm going to bet next week they overtake the 40-49s (their parents). Clearly teens know vaccination means regaining what they've lost, and they are DETERMINED.
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If you are a not yet vaccinated person 40+ living in Canada You currently have a 1 in 21 chance of being hospitalized when you get COVID, a 1 in 59 chance of ending up in ICU and a 1 in 76 chance of dying. I'm opening my DMs. Your life matters. Please message me if you need to
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I just received feedback from a student who was relieved when I moved a term test online b/c I and multiple students got COVID. Why? She's a recent solid organ transplant recipient. And there were additional students who tested positive but were going to write in person anyway.
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My colleagues, the emperor has no clothes. Nearly 30% excess mortality in Canada's fastest reporting provinces as of Dec 31/22 Dec 25/22: Germany 47%, France 31%, UK 25% It almost doesn't matter anymore what you think is the cause...please speak, please act.
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Canadians, All of us need to help NOW. Each person who avoids getting infected or infecting someone else TODAY prevents more than 100 people getting infected in the next 3 weeks. Preventing 100 infections prevents 1 hospitalization. Whenever you have a choice, think of this.
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Finally, if you got this far, please be aware that @WHO just changed masking recommendations. They used to recommend masking based on epidemiological situation, but b/c cases are consistently high, masks are now universally recommended in enclosed spaces.
World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO
13 Jan 2023
Today WHO has published updated #COVID19 guidelines on: 🔹 mask wearing in community settings 🔹 treatments 🔹 clinical management Find out more: 📌 bit.ly/3GZvcLB
Two men are sitting down at a table and talking to each other. Both are wearing a face mask.

ALT Two men are sitting down at a table and talking to each other. Both are wearing a face mask.

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I think it might if people understood just how helpful masking can be for liberating hospital beds in Canada and preventing COVID deaths. If 80% of us mask (as we did this time last year) by Feb 3 we could liberate 54,000 hospital beds and prevent 4,000 deaths 🧵
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My mom in a care home will be among the first to receive C19 vaccine in ON. I will be too, as her essential caregiver. I know the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines are safe. A month after we're vaccinated, I'll be able to hold her when she cries, sleep over, be the daughter she needs.
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Canadians, when are we going to do something about COVID? The gray bars in this chart are % excess mortality from Jan 25/20-Dec 31/22 in Canada's fastest reporting provinces: NL, QC, AB, BC. Dec 31/22 excess mortality is at the peak of the 1st wave of 2020. This is grotesque.
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Increasingly looking like Ontario (and likely rest of Canada) is heading into new wave, as expected (booster waning). BA.2 share of sequences across Canada also fairly substantial now. It's imperative that leaders communicate the importance of masking and 3rd doses NOW.
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Canadian COVID Forecast: Aug 12-25, 2023 SEVERE: AB, BC VERY HIGH: CAN,MB, NB, NL, ON, SK HIGH: North, NS, PEI, QC ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 46 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. A new surge/wave has started in most provinces. /1
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The 1st version of this study ended with Delta. This includes Omicron. The dataset is massive and results are compelling. Each successive infection increases risk of death and serious complications, in unvaccinated AND vaccinated individuals. Avoid infection/reinfection. Now.
Eric Topol
@EricTopol
21 Jun 2022
Covid reinfections are not benign: ~39,000 people w/reinfections vs ~5.4 million controls indicates extensive and persistent risk with a "dose-response" (more risk with repeat reinfections) researchsquare.com/article/r… by @zalaly @BCBowe @Biostayan @WUSTLmed @VAResearch
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My mom has been admitted with COVID. Seizure yesterday morning. Now on oxygen. No calls from hospital last 18h. Found out she has COVID when I got to ER after being asked to come in, and was told i couldn't see her. Managed to get in. She appeared awake but unresponsive.
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Hi everyone. The Canadian COVID Forecast will be late again--it's me not the team. I haven't finished the modelling yet, but hopefully today. My mom has been hospitalized again. It's very serious. we don't know if she'll survive. Please think of her. Tara
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It's pretty clear that if 80% of Canadians return to masking indoors we could reduce average daily COVID deaths and hospitalizations to a level similar to an average flu year. Even with Omicron. Why? 🧵
Image showing expected daily infections in Canada with and without 80% indoor mask wearing. Details of the effect will be described in the thread.

ALT Image showing expected daily infections in Canada with and without 80% indoor mask wearing. Details of the effect will be described in the thread.

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We're seeing surging reported severe COVID outcomes again for people 19 and younger (hospitalizations, but also in the last week a faster increase in deaths than usual). Make sure your kids get every vaccine dose for which they're currently eligible. It's important.
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I wonder if people realize that 40% of all COVID deaths in Canada have now been of people younger than 80. Or that >75% of deaths of people younger than 80 have happened since vaccines became available. Or that 40% of deaths of people younger than have happened during Omicron.
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As promised, April 7 COVID in Canada updates Buckle up. This will be a long thread. You might want to bookmark to read in one go later. Unless this is your replacement for a detective show tonight and you want to follow every twist, turn and digression.
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Hey Ontario, You know all those COVID deaths you haven't reported publicly? You do know they eventually show up in the PHAC COVID dataset and in the CVS-D registry, don't you? Now would be a good time to report them before your excess mortality for the last 6 months comes out.
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Hi folks, Just tested COVID+ and I'm feeling not super great. I'll join tonight's weather report planning session to make someone else a host, but will leave to go back to bed. My partner is still negative. Hopefully it stays that way.
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38% of all of Canada's reported COVID hospitalizations to date have been in the last 4 months 28% of reported ICU admissions of the entire epidemic in the last 4 months (with more coming from current wave) 23% of total reported epidemic deaths, with more coming from this wave.
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We just finished model updates for this week's COVID Forecast. By waste water or our model, daily infections in Canada are now as high/higher than prior Omicron peaks except Dec/21 wave. High risk people need shots ASAP, wear N95 masks, avoid non-essential indoor activities.
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Regular reminder: Canada tests for COVID 50-90% less than high income peer countries 9% per capita UK testing 12% South Korean, Italian testing 17% French testing 23-24% German, Australian testing 39% American testing 53% Spanish testing Utterly disgraceful with new wave here
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It's "official". Canada has started a new wave. It can be seen in models for BC, NB, NS, ON, QC and Northern territories. It's likely it's happening elsewhere too, but available data are not sufficiently recent/ or it's a tad early to see upward trends. Please act accordingly.
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The Jan 4-10 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live. SEVERE: CAN, BC, MB, NB, NL, ON VERY HIGH: North, PEI, SK HIGH: AB, NS, QC About 1 in every 38 people in Canada are currently infected. PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS Link: covid19resources.ca/covid-ha…
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In the next 4 weeks, about 16,000 people living in Canada will die from COVID-19 infections contracted in the past 4 weeks. Just under 10,000 of these deaths will be reported. Other countries have shown that this can be prevented with Omicron. We chose these deaths.
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The way we're approaching this is so wrong. This is so wrong. She deserves to be able to do tests safely. In fact, she has the right to this.
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Canadian COVID Forecast: Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK VERY HIGH: none HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 19 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.2 - SEVERE Alberta: 22.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 22.0 - SEVERE Manitoba: 22.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 22.8 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 18.2 - SEVERE North: 19.0 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 22.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 16.2 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 20.7 - SEVERE Quebec: 20.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 20.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.2 - SEVERE Alberta: 22.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 22.0 - SEVERE Manitoba: 22.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 22.8 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 18.2 - SEVERE North: 19.0 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 22.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 16.2 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 20.7 - SEVERE Quebec: 20.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 20.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

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Who else is willing to start masking again indoors to help our struggling healthcare system and others? YOU can make a difference. Collectively we can help a lot.
This tweet is unavailable
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Hi all, I will slowly be leaving Twitter over the next few months. Misinformation and hatred dominate the platform--a problem that is growing as engagement has been monetized. I no longer have time to manage my account to minimize hijacking for spread of misinformation. 🧵
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I'm sharing this again. Provincial decision makers, fucking get off your blame- shifting, hear no evil see no evil asses and FUCKING DO SOMETHING. An excess mortality update from StatsCan is due out this week. How bad does it have to be before you finally act?
Jon O@Jon4u16
5 Dec 2022
#BringBackMasks My dads LTC home called 5 times last night all through the night. Had chest pain (he has 2 blockages they can’t operate on as he’d not survive). They gave him nitro, Dilaudid for pain, repeated nitro. Sugars were 29. They were terrified to send him to the ER. 1/
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Dear Canadians, I know many of you have been waiting for COVID forecasts for the last 2 weeks. I'm really, really sorry, and will explain in this thread. But in the meantime...world, please welcome the validation of the Canadian COVID Forecast plotted against excess mortality.
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Canadian COVID Forecast Sep 23-Oct 6, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, BC, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK About 1 in 29 people are currently infected
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I'm trying a couple of new ways to try to contextualize current COVID numbers to help people understand the scale of the current problem. I'll post these tests in this thread. Please provide feedback... P.S. these are real estimates for the week ending Oct 14/23
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Mask indoors everywhere except home NOW. Get your vaccinations up to date, as eligible, including 3rd and 4th doses ASAP. I'm getting very worried this wave will be as big or bigger than wave that peaked in Jan, and we have so little public awareness of how serious it is.
Tara Moriarty@MoriartyLab
2 Apr 2022
The 6th wave in most of Canada is VERY serious, but so many people don't realize it. Here are current estimated actual infections in Canada and Canadian regions (black lines in this and following graphs). Canada already at one third to one half of infections of early Jan peak.
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We need ANY COVID-19 vaccine in Canada right now @GovCanHealth . We're posting a new forecast later today. Infections are currently at/near the highest peaks for Omicron to date, include the Dec/21-Jan/22 BA.1 wave. Please.......we cannot get vaccines into arms soon enough.
Nathalie Grandvaux 🇨🇦@NGrandvaux
30 Aug 2024
FDA approves Novavax vaccine for fall. Now we need @GovCanHealth to do the same. This is an important consideration for those who do not want mRNA vaccines. fda.gov/news-events/press-an…
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Sorry...I'm really angry looking at excess mortality and reported COVID deaths and severe outcomes in this country. I'm angry that we fail to communicate that since Dec/21 Canada has been significantly worse than in previous epidemic years. And that we seem ok giving up.
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The Oct 14 @COVID_19_Canada COVID Hazard Index and associated data are now live. SEVERE: AB, BC, PEI VERY HIGH: CAN, NS, ON HIGH: MB, NB, NL, North, QC ELEVATED: SK Start wearing N95-type masks again. Get your 4th vaccine dose ASAP. covid19resources.ca/public-r…
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For people 40+ in Canada who aren't yet vaccinated Here are odds of being hospitalized, in ICU and dying from Omicron. If there are even hospital beds available. In this thread I'm breaking it down by age, to help you see your real risk. I am desolate. Your life matters.
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Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 16 - 29, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK VERY HIGH: none HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 20 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Dec 16-29, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 18.6 - SEVERE Alberta: 15.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 13.8 - SEVERE Manitoba: 27.2 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 25.4 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 18.3 - SEVERE North: 14.7 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 15.8 - SEVERE Ontario: 19.7 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 15.0 - SEVERE Quebec: 19.1 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 19.7 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Dec 16-29, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 18.6 - SEVERE Alberta: 15.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 13.8 - SEVERE Manitoba: 27.2 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 25.4 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 18.3 - SEVERE North: 14.7 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 15.8 - SEVERE Ontario: 19.7 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 15.0 - SEVERE Quebec: 19.1 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 19.7 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

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Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 4 - 17, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK VERY HIGH: none HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 23 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 4 - 17, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 19.4 - SEVERE Alberta: 17.5 - SEVERE British Columbia: 15.3 - SEVERE Manitoba: 20.3 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 20.9 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 21.6 - SEVERE North: 15.5 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 14.3 - SEVERE Ontario: 20.9 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 14.3 - SEVERE Quebec: 13.8 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 21.0 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 4 - 17, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 19.4 - SEVERE Alberta: 17.5 - SEVERE British Columbia: 15.3 - SEVERE Manitoba: 20.3 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 20.9 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 21.6 - SEVERE North: 15.5 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 14.3 - SEVERE Ontario: 20.9 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 14.3 - SEVERE Quebec: 13.8 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 21.0 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

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Do you use the Canadian COVID-19 Forecast? We need your help for a funding application. We're asking people how the Forecast affects your decisions and actions related to infection prevention. Please respond and share this anonymous survey! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F…

ALT Help Please GIF by Elizabeth Sutton Collection

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Hi. I'm Tara. I live in Canada and don't have a picture of me in an N95 mask, but I wear one everytime I'm in public indoors. I refuse to accept that we're a country that accepts excess mortality rates 30% higher than pre-pandemic years.
Ryan Murphy@Cyber_Murphy
12 Apr 2023
Hi. I’m Ryan. I live in Canada and I refuse to accept that infections and reinfections are inevitable - I will continue to do my utmost to break chains of transmission. What about you?
A person is wearing a N95 mask. Two Corsi-Rosenthal boxes are shown, illuminated by internal LEDs. A ribbon hangs from the mechanical ventilation.

ALT A person is wearing a N95 mask. Two Corsi-Rosenthal boxes are shown, illuminated by internal LEDs. A ribbon hangs from the mechanical ventilation.

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Wow. 9 days and both of us still positive. My symptoms are finally improving, but my partner feels like crap. What a weird, weird infection to experience firsthand. Kind of goes on with little change for days on end.
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Canadian COVID Forecast update: Nov 25-Dec 1 We've revised the forecast, based on this week's data. Number of people infected: 🔴1 in 14: AB, MB 🔴1 in 15: QC, SK 🔴1 in 18: CAN, North, ON 🔴1 in 20: NB 🔴1 in 22: NL 🔴1 in 23: BC 🔴1 in 27: PEI 🔴1 in 37: NS GET YOUR SHOTS!
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Dear @PremierScottMoe, Attached, please find screenshots of my response to your characterization of the Royal Society of Canada's report on Canadian mortality during COVID-19 as "the most egregious misinformation of the pandemic". The text follows in this thread.
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Thank you Perth and Smith Falls District Hospital for reinstating mandatory masking. Cc @alandrummond2
This Post is from an account that no longer exists.
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Canadian COVID Forecast : Oct 7-20, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, QC, SK VERY HIGH: AB, PEI HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 25 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Oct 7 - Oct 20, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 12.5 - SEVERE Alberta: 7.9 - VERY HIGH British Columbia: 13.3 - SEVERE Manitoba: 11.7 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 10.0 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 11.5 - SEVERE North: 11.0 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 18.4 - SEVERE Ontario: 9.0 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 6.4 - VERY HIGH Quebec: 13.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 10.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Oct 7 - Oct 20, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 12.5 - SEVERE Alberta: 7.9 - VERY HIGH British Columbia: 13.3 - SEVERE Manitoba: 11.7 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 10.0 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 11.5 - SEVERE North: 11.0 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 18.4 - SEVERE Ontario: 9.0 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 6.4 - VERY HIGH Quebec: 13.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 10.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

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Canadian COVID Forecast: Jan 20 - Feb 2, 2024 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK VERY HIGH: none HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 13 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Jan 20-Feb 2, 2024 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.2 - SEVERE Alberta: 21.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 15.9 - SEVERE Manitoba: 17.6 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 22.3 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 24.0 - SEVERE North: 16.9 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 20.5 - SEVERE Ontario: 20.4 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 15.9 - SEVERE Quebec: 24.9 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 17.2 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Jan 20-Feb 2, 2024 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.2 - SEVERE Alberta: 21.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 15.9 - SEVERE Manitoba: 17.6 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 22.3 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 24.0 - SEVERE North: 16.9 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 20.5 - SEVERE Ontario: 20.4 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 15.9 - SEVERE Quebec: 24.9 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 17.2 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

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A thread about COVID-19 and COVID-19 reporting in Canada, as well as about validation of our latest COVID-19 Forecast model. It's partly motivated by the latest infection estimates for Canada. As you can see, estimated daily infections in Canada are currently at or nearing the highest Omicron peaks to date, and there's not a fresh vaccine in sight @GovCanHealth. We URGENTLY need a decision about vaccine approval and shots in arms yesterday, not in October, which looks like it will be far too late, unless infections keep going even higher.
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Oct 21 Canadian COVID Hazard Index and associated data are now live SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NS, ON, PEI VERY HIGH: NL, NWT, NUV, YK HIGH: QC, SK All regions are increasing 1 in every 36 people are infected Time to mask, boost, test is NOW Link: covid19resources.ca/covid-ha…
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A post about: 🔵Canadian COVID-19 data reporting 🔵How the Canadian COVID-19 Forecast has been changing in recent months in response to disappearing data 🔵How we're preparing to do a Forecast even if we lose all weekly reporting except waste water from @GovCanHealth
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The Oct 28 Canadian COVID Index and associated data are now live. SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NS, ON, PEI VERY HIGH: NL, North, SK HIGH: NB, QC Link: covid19resources.ca/covid-ha…
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Hi folks, I'm cancelling tonight's @COVID_19_Canada Conversation. My mom's home in the GTA has a VERY fast-spreading COVID outbreak and she had a seizure this morning (happened last time she had COVID).
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88,803 more people died than expected in Canada (excess deaths) from Jan 25/20 to May 5/23. Nearly double the deaths of WWII or the 1918-20 flu pandemic. Today @bmj_latest launched a series explaining why Canada's COVID response should be investigated. bmj.com/canada-covid-series

Accountability for Canada’s covid-19 response

The Royal Society of Canada hosted a webinar to launch this new series in The BMJ on accountabilities for the covid-19 response in Canada. More information on the event: https://rsc-src.ca/en/event...

bmj.com
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July 8-14 COVID Canada Forecast is now live VERY HIGH: BC, NB, NL HIGH: CAN, MB, NS, ON, QC, SK ELEVATED: AB, North (YT, NWT, NT), PEI Please see thread for explanation of analysis changes this week.
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Here we go again Get 3rd vax dose ASAP if you haven't already. Everyone, no matter what leaders say, keep wearing masks to protect yourselves and others. If we can hang on until spring there will be more meds available to prevent severe outcomes, maybe Omicron vax. @DFisman
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Thank you, everyone. This filled my heart. I'm not really sure I have the kind of high profile bio I'd imagine is needed for this, certainly not outside the world of Twitter. Or the longevity of contributions. My gut feeling is that the time is not now. And of course, I'll share personal info, and am so proud and honoured and grateful. Love to you all.
Amy Nakajima@SocialObGyne
21 Sep 2024
cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundl… Can we please nominate @MoriartyLab her for an Order of Canada? @kasza_leslie
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As of today's updates from @StatCan_eng @GovCanHealth and provinces More than 50% of Canada's COVID hospitalizations (95,459) in the epidemic to date (190,585) have happened since Dec 2/21 1 in every 402 people living in Canada has been hospitalized with Omicron since Dec 2/21.
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Last post of the night. Folks, I'm really sorry, but there won't be a Canadian COVID Forecast this week. We're down one person, and I have to finish two big research grants in the next two weeks, so can't "fill in" as I've done periodically this summer. Assume 1 in 25 to 1 in 50 people are infected wherever you live in Canada.....infections are still increasing. The next forecast will be August 31. I'm so sorry....just can't do it, but we'll be back on schedule by then.
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The Apr 2-8 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live. SEVERE: CAN, BC, NB, ON, SK VERY HIGH: NL, NS, PEI ELEVATED: AB, MB, QC, North About 1 in 24 people in Canada is CURRENTLY infected. Full weekly report: covid19resources.ca/covid-ha…
This image shows a series of gauges with the April 2 to April 8, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 10.5 - SEVERE Alberta: 2.5 - ELEVATED British Columbia: 16.2 - SEVERE Manitoba: 3.9 - ELEVATED New Brunswick: 11.1 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 6.9 - VERY HIGH North: 2.5 - ELEVATED Nova Scotia: 7.0 - VERY HIGH Ontario: 13.5 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 6.0 - VERY HIGH Quebec: 3.0 - ELEVATED Saskatchewan: 9.0 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the April 2 to April 8, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 10.5 - SEVERE Alberta: 2.5 - ELEVATED British Columbia: 16.2 - SEVERE Manitoba: 3.9 - ELEVATED New Brunswick: 11.1 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 6.9 - VERY HIGH North: 2.5 - ELEVATED Nova Scotia: 7.0 - VERY HIGH Ontario: 13.5 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 6.0 - VERY HIGH Quebec: 3.0 - ELEVATED Saskatchewan: 9.0 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

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Canadian COVID Forecast Aug 3-16, 2024 SEVERE: BC, NB, NL, North, NS, SK VERY HIGH: CAN, ON, QC HIGH: AB, MB, PEI MODERATE: none About 1 in 54 people in Canada is CURRENTLY infected.
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Folks, I know I talk about COVID a lot, but.... It's tick season again in most of the country, and it's important you avoid getting bitten and contracting Lyme disease. Lyme disease was my primary research area pre-COVID. Happy to do a Zoom session about prevention if desired.
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Unvaccinated Canadians 40+, I am DESPERATELY worried about you. 1 in 18 of you who get COVID-19 will be hospitalized. 1 in 59 will end up in ICU. 1 in 78 will die. Nearly 24,000 of you will die before this epidemic ends. 32,000 will end up in ICU. 107,000 will be hospitalized.
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Promoting the safety of people at higher risk from COVID in essential healthcare settings is not only desirable. It is required if institutions truly support equitable, accessible care that promotes health. chng.it/5qRDzSzh
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Canadians at higher risk from COVID (especially those not previously infected): Waste water across Canada is increasing 1%/wk (5 wk avgs), but test positivity rates increasing 16%/wk. Hospital/ICU 3%/wk. Deaths 11%/wk. Be careful about exposure till XBB shots available in Oct
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Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK VERY HIGH: none HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 28 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 14.8 - SEVERE Alberta: 16.9 - SEVERE British Columbia: 11.2 - SEVERE Manitoba: 18.6 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 15.8 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 15.7 - SEVERE North: 12.5 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 12.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 15.7 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 18.8 - SEVERE Quebec: 11.0 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 18.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 18 - Dec 1, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 14.8 - SEVERE Alberta: 16.9 - SEVERE British Columbia: 11.2 - SEVERE Manitoba: 18.6 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 15.8 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 15.7 - SEVERE North: 12.5 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 12.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 15.7 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 18.8 - SEVERE Quebec: 11.0 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 18.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

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What is wrong with this bloody country, and our mf'ing complacency and inability to act decisively for the greater good. We like to think we're Canada the nice and the moderate. We spend our time and energy on spin instead of acting. I've f'ing had it.
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The Apr 9-15 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live. SEVERE: CAN, BC, NS, PEI, SK VERY HIGH: MB, NL, North, ON, QC HIGH: NB ELEVATED: AB About 1 in 30 people in Canada is CURRENTLY infected.
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To every healthcare provider and infectious disease/medical research scientist who shares this, or who doesn't but grapples with what to do about it, thank you. I know how many of you still read along quietly, and are still trying to do something in your sphere of influence.
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Update on Canadian COVID Forecast, Hi everyone. We were supposed to finish our latest model update and post a forecast this past weekend but my mom was hospitalized on Friday and still very ill. I'm holding things up.
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Cannot believe we are losing Bill Comeau's charts. An enormous loss. Bill's contributions to Canada during COVID have been extraordinary. We all owe him a tremendous debt of gratitude. Thank you
This tweet is unavailable
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Folks, The current SAR2 variants are very different than they were in 2022. You need an XBB-based shot. The targets of mRNA and Novavax XBB shots are more similar to each other than they were for pre-XBB shots. We do NOT have evidence that Novavax XBB is superior to mRNA XBB.
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Canada has just passed 50,000 reported COVID-19 deaths. In reality, we've likely had about 80K deaths, with another 20K to come as the last 20-30% of us are infected. In the U.S., the half a million dead milestone was front page news. Will our equivalent even be discussed?
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Hi all, I know you're expecting a thread about the weekly COVID Forecast, as well as new excess mortality data after StatsCan published their monthly update today. But I'm feeling under the weather the last few days, so might not be able to do these until this weekend.
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Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 2 - 15, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK VERY HIGH: none HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 39 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Dec 2-15, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 16.7 - SEVERE Alberta: 16.7 - SEVERE British Columbia: 13.6 - SEVERE Manitoba: 24.5 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 16.6 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 15.7 - SEVERE North: 15.7 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 14.8 - SEVERE Ontario: 14.2 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 20.4 - SEVERE Quebec: 19.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 19.7 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Dec 2-15, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 16.7 - SEVERE Alberta: 16.7 - SEVERE British Columbia: 13.6 - SEVERE Manitoba: 24.5 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 16.6 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 15.7 - SEVERE North: 15.7 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 14.8 - SEVERE Ontario: 14.2 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 20.4 - SEVERE Quebec: 19.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 19.7 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

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Mar 10 COVID-19 Canada updates This will be a mega-thread because I'll explain methods again, in the hopes that decision-makers will actually engage thoughtfully with the information provided instead of vague, non-evidence-supported assumptions that we're close to normal.
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Canadian COVID Forecast: Aug 31-Sep 13, 2024 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NL, North, NS, ON, SK VERY HIGH: NB, PEI, QC HIGH: none MODERATE: none About 1 in 32 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Aug 31-Sep 13, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.0 - SEVERE Alberta: 17.6 - SEVERE British Columbia: 28.0 - SEVERE Manitoba: 21.3 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 13.3 - VERY HIGH Newfoundland and Labrador: 20.4 - SEVERE North: 20.8 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 23.4 - SEVERE Ontario: 24.1 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 11.9 - VERY HIGH Quebec: 12.8 - VERY HIGH Saskatchewan: 23.4 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Aug 31-Sep 13, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.0 - SEVERE Alberta: 17.6 - SEVERE British Columbia: 28.0 - SEVERE Manitoba: 21.3 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 13.3 - VERY HIGH Newfoundland and Labrador: 20.4 - SEVERE North: 20.8 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 23.4 - SEVERE Ontario: 24.1 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 11.9 - VERY HIGH Quebec: 12.8 - VERY HIGH Saskatchewan: 23.4 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

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The Feb 19-25 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live. SEVERE: NB, NS VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, ON HIGH: NL, PEI, QC, SK ELEVATED: AB, North About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. New surge/wave has started in multiple provinces.
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. The left side of the image shows a risk metre with the following levels: low, moderate, elevated, high, very high, and severe. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH for the seven day period between February 19 to February 25, 2023. About 1 in every 43 people is infected. The forecast is based on infection rates, hospitalizations, and deaths. COVID is currently the number 3 cause of hospitalizations and death in the country. Even if you have had COVID previously, it is still important to avoid getting infected again to reduce your risk of Long COVID. How can you protect yourself and others? Wear an N95 or equivalent well-fitted mask. Avoid indoor social gatherings. Avoid crowded non-essential places. Stay up-to-date with vaccines and boosters. High-Risk Individuals/Those around High-Risk Individuals: Also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

ALT This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. The left side of the image shows a risk metre with the following levels: low, moderate, elevated, high, very high, and severe. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH for the seven day period between February 19 to February 25, 2023. About 1 in every 43 people is infected. The forecast is based on infection rates, hospitalizations, and deaths. COVID is currently the number 3 cause of hospitalizations and death in the country. Even if you have had COVID previously, it is still important to avoid getting infected again to reduce your risk of Long COVID. How can you protect yourself and others? Wear an N95 or equivalent well-fitted mask. Avoid indoor social gatherings. Avoid crowded non-essential places. Stay up-to-date with vaccines and boosters. High-Risk Individuals/Those around High-Risk Individuals: Also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

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71,000 NEW Canadian deaths is the current Omicron endpoint, if 90% of us are infected. Which is possible in next 4 weeks at current doubling rate. If that's what you're asking. Expected annual Canadian flu deaths: 4k Cdn WWII death toll: <50k This is what mild actually means
𝐒𝐮𝐦𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢@TorontoIDDoc
4 Jan 2022
torontosun.com/opinion/colum…
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She's alert and off oxygen this morning, which is good. Just need to see her so I can tell staff whether where she is is normal for her or not. I don't know if I can't see/hear her. She has 4 doses. Praying they come through for her.
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Canadian COVID Forecast: Aug 26-Sep 8, 2023 SEVERE: AB, NB, NL VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, ON, PEI HIGH: North, NS, QC, SK ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 54 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. /1
This image shows a series of gauges with the Aug 26 - Sep 8, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 7.6 - VERY HIGH Alberta: 11.9 - SEVERE British Columbia: 8.0 - VERY HIGH Manitoba: 6.8 - VERY HIGH New Brunswick: 9.1 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 9.5 - SEVERE North: 5.0 - HIGH Nova Scotia: 4.9 - HIGH Ontario: 6.3 - VERY HIGH Prince Edward Island: 6.8 - VERY HIGH Quebec: 5.6 - HIGH Saskatchewan: 5.7 - HIGH All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Aug 26 - Sep 8, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 7.6 - VERY HIGH Alberta: 11.9 - SEVERE British Columbia: 8.0 - VERY HIGH Manitoba: 6.8 - VERY HIGH New Brunswick: 9.1 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 9.5 - SEVERE North: 5.0 - HIGH Nova Scotia: 4.9 - HIGH Ontario: 6.3 - VERY HIGH Prince Edward Island: 6.8 - VERY HIGH Quebec: 5.6 - HIGH Saskatchewan: 5.7 - HIGH All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

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Hi folks, we're setting up posting to social media platforms in addition to Twitter. It's not done yet but please stay tuned. I'll always continue to post here, for those not leaving....
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I'm seeing some posts about high risk people waiting for Novovax. Now is NOT the time to wait. Get the first XBB shot available to you. You can get Novovax in spring. There is NO clinical evidence that XBB Novavax provides more protection than mRNA Novovax.
Tara Moriarty@MoriartyLab
22 Oct 2023
Canadian COVID Forecast: Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023 SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK VERY HIGH: none HIGH: none ELEVATED: none MODERATE: none LOW: none About 1 in 19 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows a series of gauges with the Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.2 - SEVERE Alberta: 22.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 22.0 - SEVERE Manitoba: 22.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 22.8 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 18.2 - SEVERE North: 19.0 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 22.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 16.2 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 20.7 - SEVERE Quebec: 20.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 20.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

ALT This image shows a series of gauges with the Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.2 - SEVERE Alberta: 22.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 22.0 - SEVERE Manitoba: 22.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 22.8 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 18.2 - SEVERE North: 19.0 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 22.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 16.2 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 20.7 - SEVERE Quebec: 20.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 20.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard index scores are grouped into 6 ranges: LOW (<1, blue), MODERATE (1 to <2, white), ELEVATED (2 to <4, yellow), HIGH (4 to <6, light orange), VERY HIGH (6 to <8, dark orange), SEVERE (>8 red)." To access the past scores table, please visit https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index

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Replying to @NightShiftMD
I heard her speak. Zero interest in solving the problem. Just deflecting blame. I am so deeply tired of our leaders. Serving no one, blaming everyone, not willing to lift a finger in the public interest unless pushed by public opinion. Spend most time managing public opinion.
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Canadian COVID Forecast, May 20-26, 2023 I have a grant due, and our shortform graphics aren't done yet because I finally finished catching up on forecast data analysis late Sat night and some of the graphics team were away. I'll just share images of longform graphics today.
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Estimated numbers of healthcare professionals with COVID-19, week ending Oct 14/23: CAN 60,477 NL 1,016 PEI 298 NS 1,966 NB 1,481 QC 14,013 ON 21,977 MB 2,329 SK 1,986 AB 7,697 BC 7,430 YK, NWT, NUN 141 This is professionals only--not PSWs, non-professional workforce.
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I'm so tired of yelling this into the void. Canada has reported a smaller proportion of its likely COVID-19 deaths than most peer medium-large high income democratic countries with advanced medical systems. It's CRUCIAL to use @StatCan_eng data for excess mortality estimates.
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This is a serious, avoidable problem. We know how much excess mortality there was leading up to October last year, even if we were greatly under-reporting deaths and hospitalizations. Delaying rollout by 6 weeks compared to U.S. had serious consequences last year. We should have adapted this year based on this knowledge, especially since infections, hospitalizations and deaths this year are similar to or higher than last year. Are StatsCan excess mortality data not shared with decision makers to ensure they're properly informed? The gap between reality and what's detected/reported is a chasm now. Are there no policy makers who have looked at excess mortality data, or paused and worried about the consequences of these delays and restriction of vaccine access?
Iris Gorfinkel, M.D.@DrGorfinkel
6 Sep 2024
Just received from Toronto Public Health 🚨 Updated COVID-19 vaccines will NOT be available until OCTOBER They’ve been widely available in 🇺🇸 since August 30. WHY the DELAY? ⁦@GovCanHealth⁩ ⁦@PHAC_GC⁩
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There is SO much evidence that it's uncontrolled waves themselves and not restrictions that are economically harmful. If all of this was about the economy and not votes and populism and lack of leadership when it's needed most, we'd already have acted to protect business.
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And my partner is not negative, sad to say. Getting emails today from multiple students in the class I taught Monday who also just tested positive yesterday/today, so guessing we have an outbreak. Thanks for the wishes everyone. I'll be taking your advice and slowing down.
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The 6th wave in most of Canada is VERY serious, but so many people don't realize it. Here are current estimated actual infections in Canada and Canadian regions (black lines in this and following graphs). Canada already at one third to one half of infections of early Jan peak.
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From @CIHI_ICIS: Top 5 reasons for hospital stays in Canada, 2021-2022 1. Giving birth 2. COVID-19 3. Heart failure 4. Heart attack 5. Substance use disorders cihi.ca/en/hospital-stays-in…
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For those who attended tonight's @COVID_19_Canada Data Discussion (and anyone else), how do you feel about the following statement? Today in Canada because of COVID: At least 1 of every 49 people couldn't go to school or work or had trouble doing other daily life activities.
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I have decided to start posting our biweekly #COVID19 #Canada forecasts FIRST to Mastodon, then to Twitter. We'll set up a zoom session to help Twitter followers migrate to Mastodon. Please stay tuned. I'll post details here.
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IMPORTANT. EASY. PLS SHARE. SAFE CARE ON is calling all Ontarians to share that SARS-CoV-2 mitigations are absolutely essential in all #ONhealth settings. Everyone has the right to access healthcare safely. safecare.initiative.works #healthcare #ontario

Safe Care Ontario

Advocating for universal masking protections in healthcare and other mitigation tools. Airborne pathogens like SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease, pose a risk to EVERYONE's health...

safecare.initiative.works
Bold white and neon green highlighted text on black background. KEEP HEALTHCARE COVERED. TAKE ACTION. A mouse-pointer icon points to a website address: safecare.initiative.works. Bottom right corner white rounded-rectangle logo with bold stacked black text: SAFE CARE ON.

ALT Bold white and neon green highlighted text on black background. KEEP HEALTHCARE COVERED. TAKE ACTION. A mouse-pointer icon points to a website address: safecare.initiative.works. Bottom right corner white rounded-rectangle logo with bold stacked black text: SAFE CARE ON.

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I am so angry at what we've let happen that I don't know what to do. Are we really THIS? Yes, frankly we are, as anyone whose lives are systemically valued less due to all the isms we publicly decry knows well. This is grotesque.
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Even small actions help--examples you set at work, votes you take in meetings. Small steps at a time, but don't let what you know is right keep being eroded. You matter. Your conscience and identity as a caregiver matter. They are you. Those who believe in you know that.
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More than anything else, resist the feeling that you should relax about masking. Keep on doing it. It helps protect you and others. Family events, even weddings. Eat and drink outside. Don't be hurt if some guests do this. Protect friends and family.
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