Algo and options trader. Be dumb, follow price. Fade macro. NFA.
USA
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Future AI job losses roadmap. Software, finance, customer support, and administrative AI losses are leading followed by legal, education, and media.
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$MES scalper in development. About 4 traders per day. Need to improve R:R.
Scalper algo requirement:
75% win rate โ
High trade frequency โ
< 5% Drawdown โ
R:R ๐
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100% agree. Market is saying it will keep going down until terrible tariffs uncertainty is resolved.
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I freaking doubt a human driver will ram a camel on clear day freeway straight on without even slight breaking or avoidance maneuver.
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Would you trade this?
$MES, 5min, breakout, long only
5x size compared to buy-n-hold due to low max drawdown. Can scale any amount to 10x, 100x, ... Backtest period is 6 years averaging about a trade a day. @JoachimMo1985 @ZionAlgos
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Carl, invite @jam_croissant on @CNBC. He will explain what is going on underneath the hood, on air.
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Gone live with this one dubbed SteadyEddy. It's a 30% win rate, 3:1 reward to risk $ES/$MES system. Low drawdowns but runs into 12+ trades in a row losing streaks. System picked up 60 points today.
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Testing some algo trading signals. Simple buy on gap up opening with green candle with EMA profit exit is profitable. A decent signal in algo trading toolkit.
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US will run out of test capacity in weeks so true case counts will be unknown similar to the 1st wave.
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Very interesting. To meet redemptions, blackstone will be forced seller of houses into no bid housing market. How long can they limit redemptions for? Will this blow up and stop investors/funds buying up houses with cash offers going forward?
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Yikes. LoL. This one is a classic!
Seriously tho, a trader don't need to know what the company does. Price and volume is all there is to know since traders process hundreds different of charts everyday. Mark is still a stock trading wizard.
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Ported short only $ES strategy to NinjaTrader. Will call it the Elevator strategy since prices fall in such fashion. Equity curve and stats are very close to Tradingview strategy but never the same. Different data sources => different trades and stats.
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$NQ day trader (NQ 49ers) version 1.0. 1 $NQ contract, no compounding used, commission/slippage deducted. 3 trades per day both long and short. Market regime independent. $10k starting capital to $307k w/ max DD $17k. Money printer...
$NQ day trader first cut. Same algo as $ES but on a single contract of $NQ. $10k starting capital grew to $272k in 4 years. No compounding, 1 contract throughout. Commission and slippage deducted. 6 trades, long and short, per day. This thing is a money printer! ๐คฏ
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$NQ Payday version 2. Starting capital $10k. No compounding, commission/slippage deducted. Improved profitability on this iteration. Profit 13 times original $10k risking only 1 contract per trade. 13X over 6 years is ~53.7% CAGR.
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Received online mockery about overfitting which inspired me to layering in another uncorrelated edge into $NQ Payday v2.1. The equity curve is a product of 4 low to negatively correlated edges in one strategy. Now growing 17.5X initial capital of $10k in 6 yrs.
$NQ Payday version 2. Starting capital $10k. No compounding, commission/slippage deducted. Improved profitability on this iteration. Profit 13 times original $10k risking only 1 contract per trade. 13X over 6 years is ~53.7% CAGR.
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US imports $100B of crude from canada per year. Tariff will be $10B a year paid by consumers.
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Those 3 countries are historical sworn enemies. They deeply donโt trust one another. Militarily and economic rivals and enemies of the past and future. This is just posturing to get better deals with US, nothing more.
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Updated vaccine is only for XBB.1.5. It is not even listed above. Are above close enough to XBB.1.5 or is the new vaccine obsolete already?
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Algo fact: Trend following strategy is very hard. Strategy runs for years in plateaus and drawdowns. Works best in allocate and forget mode. Checking performance frequently will disappoint.
A trend following strategy index.
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Naw. All about jobs. Every country needs to protect jobs for its citizens. US has long neglected this but is now finally doing something about it. US canโt subsidize Canada forever.
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Algo Fact: Due to fear of overfitting to historical data, billions of dollars are managed using simple rules such as following on daily charts.
50 SMA over 200 SMA, go long.
50 SMA under 200 SMA, go short.
Substitute 50/200 crossover with many variations like 64/256 EMA xover.
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Most books on algo trading system development are crap. Retail audience targeted books have no usable signals. Quant professional audience targeted books are for large AUM fund managers, largely irrelevant to retail algos. The rest just describe how to run a trend following CTA.
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Late nite new system. " $ES Baller ". Single contract, no compounding. Expectancy 26.1%. 1.3 trades per week. Average hold time ~16 hrs. No MAs used. Includes overnight risk so named Baller. ๐
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China is way ahead of the game. Google, Amazon, Uber, Twitter, Facebook, Netflix, Snapchat, etc are all banned for over 10 years. They were never allowed in the first place.
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We are at the final, final stage of this bubble market. Risks being transferred to retail from institutions.
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Details of borrowers are hidden for a year. Do the borrowers need to report using the BTFP loan on their financial statement reports?
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Bidens are negative, as of this morning. Hopefully not incubating the virus caught from the debate night...
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Not good... Omicron will displace Delta for sure due to higher transmissibility. Now we have confirmation hospitalization is growing exponentially along with case count. "Mild" was misinformation based on politically bias S. Africa doctor lashing out against travel bans.
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"Panican" strategy update. 1x$MES, 5min, long/short.
This is a tactical strategy only to be deployed during tariffs or whatever induced Panican market. Higher risk/reward strategy not meant for quiet/low volatility markets.
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Two doctors fully vaccinated with 3 shots caught Covid. But channel 12 news reports vaccine efficacy for infection is 90%. Doses not sound right. Reads like a propaganda piece to calm the public.
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Cem nailed this one. ~5% dip consolation post election vol collapse. November vanna/charm weak as noted. Buy the dip as Dec and Jan vanna flows alive and well. Holidays shortened vanna/charm acceleration and EOY releveraging flows incoming leading to likely higher prices.
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Oh boyโฆ This tweet is likely not going to age well. No one can predict the future especially inflation and interest rates! No mortal can.
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The volume of US equity call options is hitting unprecedented levels amid rampant speculative activity.
thedailyshot.com/
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One $ES contract (implicit compounding from contract size growth). 33% annual return. 1 entry rule. 1 static stoploss. One exit rule. ๐คฏ @investingidiocy
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If you can consistently extract $100 from the market day in and day out, you can size up to extract $1000. Then if you can do the same with $1000, you can move to $2500. Limitation is only in your mind.
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Don't we need a bit more time to see lagging hospitalization and death? At least 1 to 2 more weeks to see? Also S. Africa only has 5% population over 65. Wait until variant hits older demographic West.
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Hard no on both. Unlimited FDIC needs congress action no? Buffet will need bank stock prices to be a lower before stepping in.
Not yet on both.
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Germany doesn't have DeSantis and Abbot.
Breaking: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott bans COVID-19 vaccine mandates for governmental entities, regardless of whether the vaccines have full FDA approval bit.ly/38iqDcU
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I miss the old Vegas where hotel and food prices were subsidized by gambling revenue. Now resort price is so high why would non gamblers go to Vegas?
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Negative gamma means MMs need to hedge in the direction of the market move excerbating the move. If SPX is going down, they have to short more to hedge thus adding to the volitility. Postive gamma means they hedge opposite to the market move, reducing volitilty.
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Um almost all cars have cabin air filters tho level of HEPA is unknown. You just got scammed by their marketing. ๐
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For shorter timeframe algo strategiesโฆ
Algo signal validation, test farthest back as possible during historical back testing.
Algo live deployment tuning, use past 2-3 year data. Keep updated on a rolling basis.
Shorter the timeframe, more relevant the recent data.
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When POTUS is one it, you know the peak supply chains issue is already behind us. But great job solving this bottleneck! Now do something about trucker shortage. National guard?
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Added compounding to the $ES Baller. 346x return on initial capital, 174.4% CAGR over 25 years.
Starting capital: $10k (10% margin on $ES), 1 contract
Compounding: >30% margin when increasing size
Overnight margin requirement on $ES is typical ~5%.
Get rich or die tryin...
Late nite new system. " $ES Baller ". Single contract, no compounding. Expectancy 26.1%. 1.3 trades per week. Average hold time ~16 hrs. No MAs used. Includes overnight risk so named Baller. ๐
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This article has good info on mutant virus from UK. At the end, it mentions current mRNA vaccines can be easily tweaked to cover new strains as required. Covid-19: New coronavirus variant is identified in UK | The BMJ bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m485โฆ
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Sample size is about 5.
A chart never to forget... the FFR had to rise above inflation in the past to bring inflation down. How will it turn out this time? Inflation is 8.6%. FFR by year end is 3%. #inflation
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A chart never to forget... the FFR had to rise above inflation in the past to bring inflation down. How will it turn out this time? Inflation is 8.6%. FFR by year end is 3%. #inflation
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Bro, have you heard of cash futures basis trade? Look at hedge fundsโ record long $TLT to offset short futures position. Short futures is not a directional bet by majority of short position holders.
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There is nothing to be ashamed of curve fitting to historical data folks. As long as you fit to valid signals, you are golden. Avoid fitting to noise.
How do you think math prodigies are RenTech are discovering new algo signals? Using past freaking price data!
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To me, the moment somebody mentions ICT, FVG, or prop firms, their credibility goes out the window.
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We need a single payer healthcare system. Yeah quality of care might suffer but itโs better than no care or going broke getting care. Health insurance lobby will prevent single payer system from ever happening tho, sigh!
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