Okay, so why I am reconsidering my 2024 cycle top?
Let me walk you through my roadtrip, especially for those that only now started following me.
In 2022 during the bear market I was a trader. Buying low and selling pumps.
In 2023, when it was obvious we are out of the bear market, I became a holder. Because holders usually outperform traders in the bull market.
I told you back in October 2023 that my modest target is making 30x on my portfolio.
I was supporting 4-years cycle plan, so my thoughts were that we will be having top in 2025.
Many can remember my charts saying that.
But then something messed with my mind.
#BTC pumped to new ATH even before halving, some 200 days before than it usually did โ๏ธ
So I thought this cycle will indeed end earlier, that is in 2024.
Over a month ago, I told you that I reached the 30x target on my portfolio, that I am even 30% above it, and that I am taking profits of the table that I won't put back in the markets.
After the markets panickly dropped during the last weeks, recently I posted that I have changed my mind about those stables and that after all I will be using them to buy the dips because I believe we are not done here with
#BTC consolidating at ATH just around halving.
Now during this retrace, I lost those 30% I had extra and I am sitting at my 30x flat.
When the markets were pumping to ATH's, I told you I don't agree with the posts that we are only getting started.
My target for BTC in this cycle that I have set over a year ago was 100-130K. Next few weekly legs up could easily take us there. This is why I thought that the statement that we are only getting started is not correct.
So why do I think that we might have much more fuel left ahead of us?
What blew my mind is monthly
$EHT /
#BTC chart ๐คฏ
If you check RSI, you can see that
$ETH just made a double bottom on monthly RSI against
#BTC .
So where did I made over 30x on my portfolio? It was approximately in the last 6 months, when Ethereum was just CHOPPING against
#BTC (little green box on the chart).
But we can compare this stage of the markets with January 2020, when RSI also made double bottom and a huge
#altcoinseason had started.
First cycle top was in May 2021, second in December 2021. Some alts didn't make new ATH after May, others did 10x until December.
And those months proved to be bull market tops!
You can nicely see how RSI came closer to an overbought area.
So why do I think that I am too modest about this cycle top?
RSI on monthly
$ETH /
#BTC chart is in the oversold area and it didn't even started to climb moving average! Once it starts riding it, we will see huge returns on our altcoins.
On the chart it will be marked with the breakout from this downtrend from September 2022.
So this is why the saying that we are only getting started can be true ๐
This chart made me think: If I made 30x on my portfolio during the mere CHOP on this chart that happened during the last 6 months, what will happen when it breaks out from here and starts pumping? ๐คฏ
Don't get me wrong, I won't be holding my coins forever. If I get few x's on my portfolio from here on, this will be above my highest expectations for this cycle and I will start to heavily take profits again in the key overbought areas on RSI.
But I hope this chart moves away the fear and anxiety you have due to this market dip and help you see the bigger picture.
#AltCoinSeason2024 is still about to get started!
Just don't be too greedy and take profits on the way up.
Love you ๐
LT