Chairman @fwdind. Figuring out what’s next after a wild run as Cofounder and Managing Partner @multicoin
Austin, Texas
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My one big prediction for EOY 2026
Solana mainnet will rival or exceed all major CEXs for majors for spot and perps
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0/ Why the next bear market will not be like the last one
And in fact, we may not have a bear market at all
Or we may have half a bear market, depending on your perspective
A thread
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Ethereum was my entry into crypto in 2016. I fell in love with the vision for permissionless finance and smart contracts.
ETH was my first meaningful source of wealth
In 2017 Ethereum was the center of crypto. Up 100x in a year. ICOs. Future of finance. Gas fees spiking. People were using the chain!
ETH was the fastest asset in human history to $100b in market cap. In history!!!
Ethereum was king of the world
Ethereum just had one glaring problem: scaling
I attended Devcon 3. November 2017. Cancun, Mexico. Ethereum was 2.5 years old at the time.
I showed up to Vitalik’s keynote an hour early. I think I was the first person in the room. I was absolutely giddy. Multicoin was 6 weeks old. I was a kid in a candy shop.
The presentation didn’t even attempt to address scaling.
I left the presentation in dismay. I just could not fathom how the EF could be so utterly clueless. How can you not recognize what’s going on around you, and set forth a credible plan with concrete and aggressive timelines? It’s your annual developer conference. This is explicitly *the* venue for sharing the plan!!! $100b in market cap depends on it!!! How can you not even try to address the elephant in the room?
Not a single person in the EF inner circles had the awareness to push for a concrete scaling plan.
Devcon 3 is when I lost faith in Ethereum
I don’t think much has changed in the 7 years since then. There is still a total lack of urgency, leadership is not in touch with the needs of its core constituents, and there is still no North Star
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0/ Today Forward Industries (@fwdind ) closed on a $1.65B PIPE cosponsored by my firm, @multicoin along with @jump_ and @galaxyhq . 100% USD, no in-kind
I am now Chairman of the company
In addition to Multicoin's investment, I invested $25M personally into the PIPE
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I was today years old when I learned that @solana is within striking distance of surpassing Nasdaq on trades settled in a day
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So it turns out you can trade from the floor of the NYSE after hours
On @solana !
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0/ @multicoin has been investing in SOL since May 2018
In that time, we have published 4 theses to share our views on how we think about Solana
Today I'm excited to share the 5th in that series:
The Solana Thesis: Internet Capital Markets
(link in next tweet)
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David understands the role he is in
His team reached out to us a few months ago and we found a buyer for Craft’s remaining Multicoin related assets
David is as above board as you can be
david sacks giving up his multicoin position is a big deal and shows he is serious about not having conflicts of interest.
the multicoin LP position is one of the best performing assets out there because of early SOL, and solana clearly has more upside from here (vs say ETH).
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The two megatrends of the next decade are not AI and crypto
It’s AI and Internet Capital Markets
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I’ll be attending The Digital Assets Summit on Friday, March 7th at the White House.
I look forward to collaborating with industry peers, the Trump administration, and elected officials to ensure crypto thrives in America.
Thank you to President Trump for this wonderful opportunity!
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DePIN seems to be having a moment rn
So thought I would share some Breakpoint presentations from three Multicoin portfolio DePINs that are a little below the radar
@pipenetwork , @Gradient_HQ , and @crunchDAO
Pipe - piped.video/watch?v=VRfTS3cO…
Gradient - piped.video/watch?v=7wUa1Z-J…
Crunch - piped.video/watch?v=favJddqA…
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0/ Some thoughts on Vision Pro
From someone who was one of the first builders on Google Glass.... 10 years ago!
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The most important theme of 2022 is going to be composability
The next generation of apps are going to leverage a multitude of composable crypto primitives to deliver experiences that were not possible before
My keynote from the 2021 Multicoin Summit:
piped.video/watch?v=vOQYcx7G…
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0/ Today I'm excited to announce that we led a $225M round in @wormhole !
multicoin.capital/2024/04/03…
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0/ @elonmusk getting a lot of hate these days, both from crypto maxis, and the media
Probably the largest source of hate is "hey he is manipulating markets, this is bad and not fair, what is he doing"
With very high probability, this is the wrong interpretation
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The perennial @solana thesis
multicoin.capital/2021/05/25…
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0/ DeFi derivatives
Probably the single most important question in DeFi over the next few years
A thread on how we're thinking about it
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I’ll be giving a presentation tomorrow at the @allinsummit at ~1:30 pacific time. I’ll be talking about Internet Capital Markets.
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21/ In summary
1) The next bear market will not look like the last
2) More likely that tech crypto goes through more short-lived 2018 SaaS bear markets (eg May-June 2021)
3) The decoupling is real
4) When BTC gets flipped, things get *really* interesting
{fin}
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0/ We led a $30M round in @RenderToken earlier this year
It’s our 2nd large Metaverse investment, after Arweave
multicoin.capital/2021/12/21…
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0/ One theory of the metaverse is that the company that controls the social graph, will have the strongest influence on the Metaverse
So I’ve been thinking a lot about how to get the social graph data out of Facebook and Twitter, etc
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This is the game plan!
one of solana's weak points against ethereum is defi activity, would be very bullish if Samani & co can deploy the funds in these DATs into defi protocols
want to see solana alts do well outside of just memes, & there's a lot of strong teams now with tokens, $PUMP is a good sign
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A historic moment for the industry
We used to be fighting to stay alive
Now we forge the path to lead the world in crypto
Onwards!
President Trump Delivers Remarks at the White House Digital Assets Summit nitter.app/i/broadcasts/1jMJgkzZV…
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This year will probably be the year in which the Solana network sees the highest % improvement in performance and UX in a single year. Certainly no prior year compares:
1) huge improvements to Agave (new greedy scheduler, CU limits, turbine, etc.)
2) new consensus algo in Q4 (will reduce time to finality)
3) Firedancer
4) Doublezero
5) maybe APE (asynchronous program execution)
6) native cryptographic support for passkeys in April (huge UX improvement)
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Solana
The next step for crypto is to make payments instant and free globally.
This will take lots of work from all of us, Coinbase included, getting layer 2's integrated, better on-ramps, simpler UX/onboarding, etc.
A magic threshold would be getting the average payment under 1 cent and confirmed in under 1 second. I think we'd see orders of magnitude more payments move to crypto if we can achieve that.
Today, crypto has the *potential* to improve global payments infrastructure, but it hasn't yet delivered on that promise as we're largely still stuck on layer 1. Payments are like water, they flow to the path of least resistance.
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Congratulations @DavidSacks on the new role as AI and Crypto Czar! Crypto is honored to have you
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Used the @fusewallet virtual bank account feature today
Sent a wire from my bank. Received USDC in my self-custodial @solana wallet a few minutes later
Absolute butter. A+ experience
Now earning 16% APY on the deposit
9Hctt58FHoADjvWeMUSwizevXSxEMS72ZCZZYPcm3fnT
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People like to say that @solana fundamentals have not changed in the last X months
That’s not true
One very important thing has changed
There is now incontrovertible proof that the solana network can run *at scale*:
1) while maintaining ~0 fees for normies
2) without falling over
3) without any crazy DeFi implosions/hacks/cascading liquidations/etc
This is not just a function of internal benchmarks. This is real world production performance
Moreover, all of this worked even while the substantial majority of market makers were not plugged in to provide on-chain liquidity on Solana. On-chain liquidity is about to become a lot better in the next few weeks as some big name MMs ramp up liquidity on chain
That's not to say that everything was perfect. Some RPCs had problems. The fee model needs to be adjusted (many researchers and devs are actively working on this now). App devs need to implement priority fees. Lots things need to iterated on
But generally speaking, everything worked as advertised while volumes, trades, payments, token launches, etc were all going absolutely bananas
For the first time in the 15 year history of crypto, there is indisputable evidence that an asset ledger fulfills the promise of offering DeFi at scale
This time is different
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12/ This is why I expect SOL and ETH to substantially outperform BTC through the next “bear market”
The tech money doesn’t care about macro
They just want to be long the stuff that they think is going to change the world
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. @APompliano is right
JP Morgan is trying to create a privatized overlay money system on top of the Fed's USD
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In my opening remarks I covered the five most consequential trends of the year: the rise of Solana, stablecoins, DePIN, regulation, and the arrival of Wall Street.
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0/ @solana Breakpoint is here!
There are thousands of people in Lisbon, and everyone wants to get connected to the right people
So here’s a thread on some of those people, and who they are trying to connect with
I think everyone’s DMs are open. Don’t be shy!
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0/ Predicting the future is hard
The most common way to do this is by using data, and extrapolating from the past
This works ok when things are changing in a predictable-ish way
But sometimes things change unpredictability
2022 will be a year of unpredictable changes
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. @Helium @Hivemapper and @ionet combined are producing >$50M in revenue today
Pretty sure these 3 will exceed $100m by EOY 2025
Plus the many other DEPINs on Solana
2025 will be looked back on as DEPIN’s breakout year
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There are going to be a ton of air drops for @Solana @solanamobile Saga owners over the next 12 months
h/t @kankanivishal
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on chain confidentiality coming to a chain near you
Today we reached a massive milestone at @zama_fhe : bootstrapping in less than 1 milliseconds.
Bootstrapping in FHE allows “cleaning” the noise in encrypted data, and is responsible for the vast majority of the computation time. Thus, the faster bootstrapping gets, the more confidential transactions per second the Zama Protocol can process.
We achieved this after years of research on efficiently using GPUs for FHE. The results are MINDBLOWING:
Boostrapping latency:
- 2021: 53 ms
- today: 0.9 ms
- speedup: 56x
When applied to integers arithmetics, the results are even more insane:
64 bit encrypted addition latency:
- 2022: 2,000 ms
- today: 8.7 ms
- speedup: 230x
64 bit encrypted multiplication latency:
- 2022: 13,000 ms
- today: 32 ms
- speedup: 400x
To understand what this means in practice, lets look at confidential stablecoin transfers:
- 2022: 0.1 tps
- today: 230 tps
FHE is now FASTER than Ethereum and most L2s! And it’s only a matter of months before we can reach 1000 tps.
Next steps: build an FHE ASIC to reach 100k tps by 2029. Enough to cover Visa, Mastercard and SWIFT volume combined.
🚀🚀🚀
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1/ Internet Capital Markets are the most important idea I’ve ever encountered as an investor. I had the privilege of sharing this vision at the @theallinpod Summit in LA. Here’s a quick summary. (full video at the end).
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7 years ago when @tushar_jain and I founded
@multicoin, we selected the logo to be a Phoenix
The Phoenix represents the new financial system, rising from the ashes of the old
SOL is a Phoenix
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Hypothesis: biggest mistake tech people make when evaluating financial markets is to think exponentially when the market acts linearly. Biggest mistake finance people make when evaluating tech is to think linearly when tech evolves exponentially
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Solana staking ETF are here!
Introducing $BSOL — the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF. Starts trading tomorrow.
- First U.S. ETP to have 100% direct exposure to spot SOL
- Maximizing Solana’s 7%+ average staking reward rate*
- Targeting 100% of assets staked
- Staking through Bitwise Onchain Solutions, powered by @heliuslabs
- 0% fees, with waiver for a limited time**
We believe Solana is a key platform for enabling capital markets to come onchain and is perfectly positioned for this moment.
Now, investors can get exposure to its growth potential and 7% average staking rewards with BSOL.
Solana is headed into the mainstream—and we think it’s just getting started.
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0/ A thread on decision making (DM)
Both personally, and in the context of investment decisions at Multicoin
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Tinder like UI
but for prediction markets. binary markets only
swipe right for yes, swipe left for no
all cards must expire in < X hours
can configure default amount of $ for each swipe
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This is very exciting... a p2p VPN with distribution to millions of users
Could be one of the biggest breakthroughs in privacy on the internet since the advent of SSL
h/t @brave @BrendanEich
brave.com/vpn0-a-privacy-pre…
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Memecoins are about to go super mainstream
I continue to believe there is room for product experimentation around the assets themselves
DMs open if you are pushing the frontier here
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At ~2:30 EDT today, President @realDonaldTrump will sign @SenatorHagerty 's GENIUS Act into law
We @multicoin - particularly our General Counsel @xethalis - have been working with dozens of lawmakers and their staff over the last year to get to this point.
I'm honored to be invited to the Whitehouse today to join the President, @DavidSacks , @BoHines and so many others for this monumental occasion
This is the most consequential financial legislation since Dodd Frank. GENIUS will have profound implications for US citizens, the United States's global interests, the crypto industry, and billions of people around the world
USD is the greatest product in human history, and we will export USD to billions of people around the world using stablecoins on crypto rails
🇺🇸
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0/ There has been a lot of discussion around on-chain privacy recently
Led mostly by @mert
At MCC, we have spent a lot of time thinking about privacy, and have invested quite a bit of cash
Some thoughts
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.@solana staking ETFs are going to hit shortly
The approval of Generic Listing Standards for Commodity Based Trust Shares (including Crypto ETPs) is a landmark decision that brings the SEC back to its normal course.
ETPs of this type are a remarkably efficient and well understood product.
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It’s an honor to compete with you sir! I listen and learn from you a ton, and appreciate everything you do for the space
Game respects game
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On Saturday, I completed the most difficult physical activity of my life: a 200 mile bike ride
6am start time. Finished around 9:55pm. Start in the dark, finish in the dark.
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We launched Multicoin with ~$2M in 2017
Today north of $3B in AUM
2 people in IR. We don’t outbound. Just inbound
We failed to raise VF2 in 2019
All my soft circled LPs pulled out in Sept 2008. I launched anyway with $5 M. My first trade was Oct 1, 2008. I put 50% in $BKNG at $55 / share - today its $3859. Launched VC in 2010. By 2021 had over $20 B in assets - mostly from returns. Just. Get. Started. @PittmanRadio
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I'm excited to celebrate in DC this weekend, the inauguration of President @realDonaldTrump
Under President Trump’s leadership and with @DavidSacks 's guidance the USA is going to craft great regulations and attract the best talent
See you at the Crypto Ball Friday night!
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I gotta say I was pretty skeptical when @elonmusk bought Twitter. Like many others, I just wanted him to focus on electric cars and rockets and the like
It's been less than 2 years, and holy shit I'm glad he bought Twitter
Thank you Elon!
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9/ The train has left the station: all of the tech builders and investors have underwritten tech crypto as having a meaningful probability of reshaping commerce, finance, and the fabric of society at large
And they are comfortable meeting on that and holding for years
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0/ A counterintuitive lesson on fund structures
TLDR - hedge funds are better structures for *long term* investing than venture structures
I say this having run one of each for 3-4 years now
A thread for entrepreneurs and LPs
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Yesterday was another clear sign that Solana has taken the lead on intellectual capital, capital formation, and trading
Solana is where crypto happens
It’s not that Solana had a $155M ICO in the morning.
Or the fact that it was processing 100k TPS during an afternoon market nuke.
It’s that both of those things in the same day starts to paint a pretty clear picture of where the future of finance is happening.
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I predict that @Polymarket and @Kalshi will cross 95% before a major media outlet calls the winner
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Have spoken with various teams around wormhole, exchanges, Stablecoins issuers, etc in the last 24 hours
Remarkable to see everyone - including fiercely direct competitors - come together to resolve the situation as fast as possibly
Wagmi
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My one prediction for 2025 is that by mid year, using Solana will rival CeFi for all major finance functions (limit orders, market orders, borrow lend, perps, native support for passkeys, etc) in terms of speed, liquidity, and UX
This will be the result of improvements at all layers of the stack: the L1 itself even without Firedancer, wallets, apps, tx lifecycle infra, changes to how liquidity is provisioned, and more
Many teams, all building towards a common vision
IBRL
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3/ What does Musk know?
Crypto is big, and getting bigger, and that he can do something(s) amazing with it
The most probable explanation for his actions therefore is that he is figuring that out right now
Long Musk!
{fin}
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Posting a thread on the 2024 @multicoin Summit. This year was hands down our best yet.
We just published all of the videos from the event on our YT page. Playlist link is in the next xeet.
Let's dig in.
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In my estimation solana took the lead for intellectual capital 12-24 months ago
the simplest long-term bull case for SOL is that whatever the next big new trend is, it will probably happen on Solana
whether its creator streaming, collectibles, onchain equities, next-gen prediction markets, or whatever else, its just the best place to build apps today
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Working on my 2024 predictions rn
@helium and @Hivemapper will be two of the leading torch bearers of the industry by EOY 2024
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1/ Broadly speaking, there are two cohorts of people in crypto
Money crypto
Tech crypto
The zeitgeist of the space was dominated by money crypto people from 2011-2017
Since 2017, tech crypto has come to dominate the zeitgest
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0/ Sushi and super apps. A 🧵
Sushi just turned 1. I think Sushi is little bit lost, and doesn’t know what it wants to be when it grows up
Multicoin owns some SUSHI
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Thoughts on @THORChain
1) 2nd exploit was not new bug. It was already there
2) it was known to be unaudited. Obv a little irresponsible, but also to be expected
3) Thorchain is probably the most complex crypto thing in the world other than bleeding edge ZKP stuff
Wgmi
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