Consensus is still pricing the S&P 500 for a world that no longer exists. For the rest of the decade expect, strong real GDP growth, low inflation, strong productivity growth, deregulation, supply side policies, a peace dividend, and a Fed that no longer sees growth as bad. Consensus is still using the 1990s as a guide, while ignoring that cognitive capital is now replacing analog constraints. S&P 500 earnings target of $650 by 2031 may be too low. Hyperscaler capex isn’t a bubble. It’s a prisoner’s dilemma that keeps investment running even as monetization lags. This is a structural rerating around a new computational substrate. Investors still clinging to legacy frameworks are about to miss the biggest step-change in earnings power in decades. Full breakdown in our latest MarketSights article 👇

China 10 year yield. Pay attention, ignore the noise.

Folks just don’t get it. Rates are declining, Bessent is a happy man. His North Star is the UST 10 yr yield. Not the Fed! Tariffs will eventually force the Feds hand. Let the crazies in the equity futures have their fun. The real information is in the credit markets. UST 10 yr about to break 4%

China 10 Year Yield getting ready to take a run at the 1.60% low. Rates going to the zero bound in China not on Wall St Bingo card. What if China needs to sell UST because it’s running out of USD to keep the Peg to USD… I think Bessent knows a thing or two on currency Pegs

Bitcoin. Largest Liquidation event ever and Bitcoin is sitting at $114K. Think about that for one minute.

Bessent isn't Yellen. We don't have a leftist Keynesian at the helm; we have a macro hedge fund manager who was instrumental in one of the most famous macro trades of our generation—attacking the Pound. His deep understanding of liquidity and financial conditions will reshape the economy and markets—he gets it !!

UST 2yr Yield. Nice clean break lower. Trump admin getting the response they want. Lower rates mean we avoid a financial crisis. $9T needs be refinanced a major concern. Get rates lower objective #1. If Equity market tantrums so be it, there are bigger issues. For now stock market is not the top priority it’s fixing the fiscal mess Biden and Yellen left behind!!

JOLTS. Construction Quits. Leading indicator. At level not seen GFC.

China 10 Yr Yield dropping like a stone. Irving Fisher Debt Deflation spiral in real time. 1.63% 👇

China 2yr yield about to go under 1%. Ignore the noise. The risk for the west is a debt deflation spiral.

Old rule: When Spot VIX is higher than VIX 3M buy the market.

USD has peaked. Rates have peaked. Oil going to $50. Inflation spike has dissipated. Labor data will be revised lower. Historic seasonal adjustments that Wall St took hook line and sinker!! r* is declining. Tariffs are not inflationary. Trade accordingly. USD 👇

For the record. The question at hand is not whether the Fed will cut rates in September, nor is it about parsing every word Powell uttered today. The fundamental issue is the viability of the Federal Reserve’s role within a truly capitalist society, now that its overreach has become apparent. The sustainability of the Fed’s authority will be increasingly questioned as it acts as though we operate under a centrally planned economy, an assertion that strains the very principles of free markets. The claim that the Fed is apolitical is now widely regarded as folly. Powell’s stark performance at the University of Chicago in April marked a pivotal moment, the crossing of a Rubicon. In that instance, Powell comported himself as an economic emperor, displaying a disdain for Trump’s policies and supply-side economics that was palpable. His implicit message was clear: the Fed would stand in the way of the President’s agenda, dismissing the constraints and provisions of the Humphrey-Hawkins Act as mere formalities. One must ask: Is Powell and the Fed above the U.S. Constitution? It is undeniable, the Fed has overplayed its hand. The world now sees what the Fed truly is and what its officials, past and present, stand for. The era of the Fed’s untouchability is definitively over. This is the true line of demarcation. While pundits debate the nuances of Powell’s rhetoric on the labor market or analyze the subtleties of his language, or what the dot plots say, the real story is much more profound. The post-1951 incarnation of the Federal Reserve, which has wielded extraordinary influence for over seven decades, is approaching its end. Powell’s concerns about his legacy are understandable, but history will judge that he ultimately overstepped. His actions have accelerated the demise of the post-World War II central banking era, signaling a fundamental shift in the relationship between monetary authority and democratic governance. Yes we are in the mist of developing Bretton Woods 2.0 and the Fed’s role is yet to be defined. The epoch of the Fed’s presumed omnipotence is drawing to a close, and with it, the myth of an unelected institution wielding unchecked power in a free society. Welcome to the 4th Turning. The society, much like in The Wizard of Oz, has seen behind the curtain. The illusion of control and omniscience has been shattered. No more books need to be written. The Fed can no longer control the narrative. Objective research and honest analysis now happen away from Wall Street’s influence, outside the confines of Fed acolytes and their orchestrated spin. The jig is up. The era of deception and concealment is over, and the true power dynamics are emerging into the light. Welcome to President Trumps second term.

Let’s try this again. 6 months of negative GDP growth is a recession folks!! Yes Canada is in a recession.

The U.S., playing Dirty Harry, stares down China’s precarious economy and growls, “Go ahead, make my day.” Devalue the RMB and sell UST. China, the most unbalanced economy in modern history, is stuck in the middle-income trap, weighed down by surplus production, overcapacity, and inelastic supply. A rapidly aging population and rising labor costs have left its growth model wobbling. What happens when millions from the countryside lose their jobs as factories slow and exports falter? Social unrest could erupt like a powder keg, while Beijing’s half-hearted reforms offer little relief. The question is: will China fold under the weight of its own contradictions? Dirty Harry’s challenge hangs in the air. RMB👇

Trade deals open the door to a Fed rate cut this week.

A comment on Bitcoin. The U.S. government is reopening, and the Treasury’s management of the TGA signals an imminent injection of liquidity into the financial system. Quantitative tightening will soon end, and in my view, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates until the federal funds rate reaches around 2.75 percent. In 2026, the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee will change, Powell will be replaced, effectively ending the era of the Progressive Left Keynesian control of the Fed. Chair Powell’s policy choices have already produced a housing recession, an outcome the FOMC collectively owns. The combination of overtightened financial conditions, lagging policy response, and reliance on backward-looking indicators has distorted credit availability and weakened one of the economy’s key sectors. Bitcoin adoption continues to accelerate, supported by pending legislation that promises greater regulatory clarity. Yes, fiat continues to be pumped into the global economy. Nothing has changed. Bitcoin digital scarcity remains unparalleled, compelling institutional adoption and driving ongoing innovation across Wall Street. Still, some investors choose to sell Bitcoin precisely as its long-term case strengthens, an enduring example of irrational behavior in markets. “Buy low, sell high” is simple to say but remarkably difficult to execute. Deep liquidity shifts and structural transitions often create opportunities that only appear obvious in hindsight. The Bull run ends when liquidity drys up not when it’s beginning, this has always been the case.

Does everyone understand that China has a massive trade surplus, and its supply is inelastic. Keep it simple: China’s hand is not as strong as many on Wall St and MSM are suggesting. Ever wonder why Wall St is a big China cheerleader?

Call me crazy. Bitcoin’s chart is a thing of beauty. Ignore the noise.

Mr Bessent get it. The credit market leads the Fed.

The architect of the most reckless spending spree in modern history, who has left behind a debt bomb ready to explode. And Janet Yellen has the audacity to criticize Trump's trade policy? Seriously? We're looking at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 125%, and they couldn't even bother to lock in lower rates when they were at rock bottom. The sheer irony and tone-deafness of the left is absolutely staggering.

Tariffs do not cause inflation. PPI negative MoM. Thats deflation! Have a nice day.

Only 14% of US GDP is imported goods and services.

Retaliatory tariffs to Trump's auto tariffs are merely an emotional response. True courage lies in recognizing that Canada can no longer afford to squander its natural resources. Low-cost energy and critical minerals are key to economic success, and Canada must wake up to this reality. It's time to rise above reactionary measures and seize the opportunity to become a powerhouse in the global market. The clock is ticking—Canada must act decisively. Canada must become a Hard Power in Energy and natural resources. That’s the dominant strategy. Yes it will take time. The decades of squandering its natural resources must stop.

My target of S&P 500 7000 for 2025 still holds.

USA Full Time Jobs declined 350K month to month. Not a strong jobs report.

SOFR dropping like a stone. A dramatic decline in SOFR means that borrowing money overnight in US markets just got cheaper, which signals easier or more accommodative monetary conditions for banks and businesses.

Hat tip to President Trump and team. President Trump’s recent announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs for over 75 countries, excluding China, reflects his negotiation strategy, often described as “The Art of the Deal.” By lowering tariffs to 10% for most nations, Trump has encouraged dialogue and reduced market tensions while isolating China with a significant tariff increase to 125%. Moreover, the move strategically mirrors the Chinese game of weiqi, a key element brought to light by Dr Kissinger. Henry Kissinger often highlighted the strategic differences between Chinese and Western approaches, emphasizing China’s reliance on long-term, indirect strategies inspired by their cultural and historical traditions. He famously compared Chinese strategy to weiqi (go), a game focused on strategic encirclement and gradual accumulation of advantage, contrasting it with chess, which prioritizes decisive victories and direct confrontations. In China strategic encirclement of the opposition is the objective. President Trump has achieved that objective. By fostering alliances and negotiations with other nations, Trump has effectively surrounded China economically, leveraging isolation to strengthen his bargaining position.

Canadians need to look in the mirror and stop blaming President Trump.

Read the room folks.

China 2yr yield about to go under 1%. 1.017% 👇

UST 2yr through 3.5% like a hot knife through butter. Looks like 3%.. Credit market forcing Powells hand. The Fed, now has the blessing from the credit market to cut!

Why is there no discussion about this on Wall St? China has not fully met WTO obligations, maintaining a state-led economic model, distorting trade through subsidies, limited market access, and weak intellectual property protection, despite benefiting from global market access. Middle America has been hallowed out. And yet many Wall St pundits and Think Tank pundits continue to do China’s bidding.

The Fed has no choice. If rates are not cut we get a financial crisis. There is too much government debt! We now live in an era of Fiscal Dominance. The term "fiscal dominance" refers to a situation in which the government's fiscal policy (Deficits of 6% and Debt to GDP at WWII levels) significantly influences or dominates the monetary policy set by the central bank. This occurs when a government's debt level is so high that it restricts the central bank's ability to control inflation through monetary policy tools, such as setting interest rates. If rates don’t come down, and the value of the USD does not come down then there is a very high will probability that the US will experience a failed bond auction. Sorry folks there is no other alternative.

For the record. The sooner Canada acknowledges that portions of its manufacturing sector are structurally uncompetitive and unlikely to return, the better. The path forward lies in embracing the country’s natural resource strengths and reforming the regulatory framework to attract global capital. The era of denial must come to an end.

Well well well Maybe folks should have more faith in President Trump negotiation and deal making ability.

Simple rule.. liquidity leads risk assets. M2 growth now positive, QT surprise by Fed, rate cuts in 2024. Pain trade due north.

Wall St needs to take a chill pill. The #1 objective is to fix the mess that Biden, Yellen and Brianard left behind. Refinancing of $9T. Getting rates lower priority #1. Powell’s progressive left Fed not helping. Bessent North Star a (UST 10 yr) clean break lower.

It’s a striking irony that two Canadian firms, Brookfield and Cameco, through their joint stake in Westinghouse, are driving the nuclear revival at the heart of President Trump’s U.S. economic strategy. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Carney, with deep ties to Brookfield, presides over a Canada still paralyzed by its own indecision. The contrast could not be clearer: Canadian companies are powering American resurgence while Ottawa fumbles at home. investors.com/news/nuclear-c…

Tel Aviv Stock Exchange bouncing.

Quick comment on $TSLA. TSLA's Q4 delivery numbers were slightly below the Street's expectations. I see these deliveries numbers as solid. My long term thesis for 2025 anchors off robots, Robotaxi, and autonomy. The attention deficit crowd clearly does not share my long-term belief in the potential of autonomy and robotics. Let the short-sighted investors move on; nothing has fundamentally changed. TSLA is still on track to be a $2T company by 2025. Ignore the noise.

Perspective is crucial. While $TSLA has experienced a strong short-term rally, a long-term view of the chart suggests a positive outlook ahead. My 2025 price target of $700 still stands. TSLA breaking out of a 4 year consolidation pattern.

$TSLA Hope you bought the dip! Gap closed in one day, a sign of strength. Retest right back to were it broke out. Classic technical playbook trading. Noise from Wall St being ignored. Will be a $2T company in 2025. By the end of Trump 2nd term,a $4T company would not surprise. Don’t bet against Elon. A simple rule.

Thesis playing out Buy the pullback. $TSLA

As the shorts pile on nothing has changed. Buy the dip. $TSLA

My 2 cents on PM Carney’s budget. It’s not the Big Bang, but it’s a coherent, prudent starting point that recognizes the private sector must lead. Behind its careful rhetoric lies a $280 billion wager to unlock over $1 trillion in private capital for AI, housing, and defence. This is not fiscal tinkering; it’s the architecture of a national industrial strategy. Canada now has the beginnings of an industrial policy focused on productivity growth, one that’s been missing for decades. Is it perfect no, but it’s starting point. While pundits obsess over pipelines, they miss the bigger picture. Yes, pipelines matter, but they’re only one part of a broader industrial vision to position Canada for the AI‑driven economy. Carney is right: pipelines may be boring, but productivity isn’t, and this budget aims squarely at reigniting it. Regulatory reform, competitive tax tools, and targeted public spending are finally being deployed with purpose. And yet, pundits still complain, blind to the fact that Ottawa has quietly redrawn the economic playbook.

As Moody’s downgrades US debt, the Fed just sits there with its FFR at 4.33% and QT running. Powell will go down as one of worst Fed Chairman in history. How much would interest payments be reduced if the FFR=r*. Fed is reckless and dangerous.

Those who criticize President Trump's tariff policy are essentially doing China's bidding.

CPI ex shelter YoY 1.5% Fed has TDS.

China about to fire the Bazooka. “offical budget deficit target the highest in over three decades, pumping trillions of yuan into the system” Slowing global growth and a massive liquidity wave, invest accordingly.

Why do folks not realize. Lower UST yields and deprecation of USD help alleviate the pressure globally of the extreme levels of debt!

The nonchalant attitude and disinterest by the Fed during this historic moment really brings into question its existence.

$TSLA Right back to the 200 day EMA. Nothing has changed. My investment thesis on TSLA has not been altered because ELON is focused on DOGE.

Tesla’s long-term thesis is unfolding. Don’t bet against Elon. $TSLA

My thesis is that by the end of Trumps 2nd term $TSLA will be #1

PCE Fed’s target. 2.1% YoY It’s all shelter. Tell me again the Fed is Data dependent.

China’s economy now teeters on the brink of a Fisherian debt-deflation spiral, challenging long-held assumptions about its growth model and policy effectiveness. China appears to be ignoring crucial lessons from Japan’s lost decades.

For the record: I can’t believe Wall St has yet to read The Art of the Deal. Their reaction today proves this. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, announced in the Rose Garden, reflect his Art of the Deal strategy. By implementing sweeping tariffs (10%-50%) and framing them as “reciprocal,” Trump positions the U.S. as responding to unfair foreign practices, making his actions appear moderate rather than extreme. This framing builds leverage for future negotiations, consistent with his philosophy to “Think Big” and start from a strong position. The upshot of the event was to initiate the negotiation phase. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the announced tariffs act as a ceiling, allowing countries to negotiate downward. As Trump stated in The Art of the Deal: “I like thinking big. If you’re going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big.” This bold opening move sets the stage for potential concessions while maintaining pressure on trade partners. We are witnessing The Art of the Deal in action.

Is Wall St finally waking up ? My $700 target on $TSLA is low.

Listening to the $TSLA call. Wow Elon is hitting it out of the park. Lets ignore Fed and realize that 2025 is going to be a year dominant by achievements driven by Elon. Just by the winners. And $TSLA is a winner.

Can the Fed please explain why QT is still running and the FFR is 4.33% when r* is 2.75%. Asking for a friend.

The Fed is the last bastion of extreme progressive left ideology. Powells actions in Chicago yesterday showed the world that the Fed is NOT politically neutral. President Trump is right to be disappointed in the Fed.

I’m sorry the Street just does not get it. $TSLA

Don’t bet against Elon. And Wall St still believes $TSLA is only a car company. Wall St will be proven wrong again. Long term thesis intact.

When Liquidity drys up the Bull Run ends. It’s not about valuation, ignore the noise. Government Opens and TGA draws begin. Dec 1 QT ends. More rate cuts. President Williams out with some interesting comments today. Fed to expand security holdings … was the suggestion..

Negative growth in Full Time Work. No false positives in predicting a recession.

Not me.

Per Capita GDP in Canada for 2024 -1.4%!! Following a decline of 1.3% in 2023. Stop all the happy talk. Canada is a mess.

Hope you bought the dip. Don’t worry there will be another one next triple witching in March 2025. March 21 2025 to be exact.

Jobs collapse in the UK. BOE will be forced to cut. Yes the Fed is whistling by the graveyard.

Treasury TGA..about to break $1T. Only time bigger, during C-19. Treasury can’t spend because of shut down. QT ends in December, $70B of buying P/M. Potential liquidity about to hit the system.

AI is still the play, ignore the noise. Yes I’m anchoring off the recovery of TSLA, PLTR, MSTR and Bitcoin. My thesis of a V shaped recovery has not changed. $TLSA $PLTR

China 10 Yr yield through 1.6% like a hot knife through butter. 1.595% 👇

Wall St wrong again. US EU massive trade deal. President Trump keeps working his magic 👇

Yes the Fed is late. Yes President Trump has a right to be disappointed. Given that the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is currently at 4.33%, while the estimated natural rate of interest (r*)—as defined by Wicksell—is approximately 2.75%, it suggests that the Fed should be operating at or near this natural rate to promote stable growth. However, the reality is quite different. Wall Street has finally begun to recognize that the private sector is nearing a recession, and the recent growth has largely been fueled by wartime-like fiscal policies that are inherently unsustainable. While a rate cut by the Fed would seem prudent, it is likely too late—monetary policy operates with a significant lag of at least two years, and the ongoing Quantitative Tightening (QT) further complicates the landscape. Moreover, the level of incompetence at the Federal Reserve appears to be at historically high levels, raising concerns about their ability to navigate these challenges effectively. As Milton Friedman warned, monetary policy effects are delayed, yet the Fed continues to act as if they can perfectly fine-tune their interventions. Greenspan acknowledged that monetary policies have long lags and that central bankers may be forced to move before the data clearly indicates the need for rate cuts. Currently, the Fed’s inaction and misjudgments—despite clear economic signals—highlight a troubling level of incompetence. Instead of stabilizing the economy, their delayed and ineffective responses are exacerbating the downturn when decisive action is most needed.

The long term investment thesis for $TSLA still stands. Ignore the noise.

Instead of building a palace. Maybe the Fed can update its models. Tariffs do not cause inflation. CPI 1.68% 👇 @truflation

Drawing parallels between today’s inflation and the 1970s is a lazy shortcut for pundits who can’t be bothered to analyze the current economic landscape properly. They conveniently ignore the fact that the second inflation spike in the late 1970s was triggered by a distinct and severe supply shock. The Iranian Revolution of 1978-79 threw the global oil market into chaos, slashing Iranian oil output by 4.8 million barrels per day - a whopping 7% of world production at the time. This crisis, compounded by the Iran-Iraq War, sent oil prices skyrocketing from $13 to $34 per barrel in just a year. It’s this kind of seismic event that drove the double-digit inflation rates of the early 1980s, not some mysterious economic cycle that’s bound to repeat itself.

Waiting for the next leg up. Long term thesis still intact. Don’t bet against Elon. $TSLA

Don’t bet against Elon 👇

China pumping liquidity. 👇

A return of the Yen Carry trade. Put in on your Bingo Card. Get ready for the “Iron Lady” of Japan. With Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, Sanae Takaichi is now the front runner to lead Japan, signalling a major policy shift that will directly affect the Bank of Japan. Takaichi’s support for maintaining low interest rates is likely to keep the yen weak and incentivize global capital outflows through the yen carry trade. The Yen has responded. 👇

I’m not buying into the Doom and Gloom the End of the world narrative. $MSTR

Lutnick and Miller score own goals for the Trump Administration this AM. IMHO it should Bessent and Trump speaking for the administration on trade. Lutnick, Navarro and Miller, create too much noise. Please limited media access, if any at all. They have no clue on how to read a room.

Consensus Wall St view. 1) President Trump and Scott Bessent don’t know that they are doing. 2) China holds all the cards. 3) No deal will be made. 4) The Result will be recession and inflation. 5) Market will make new lows, and interest rates spike. I will take the other side of this trade.

Want a Non-Consensus call. Yields are peaking. Yields peak just as Mr Trump is about to take office. Imagine that.

Ignore the noise. This is not the worst policy mistake in 100 years. Please, the fear perpetrated by the MSM and Wall Street is truly disappointing.

We have entered the negotiation phase of this tariff drama. We now have are starting points for negotiations to begin. Yes more transparency. Ignore those screaming fire.

It’s the economy stupid. Canada’s economy is a house of cards built on decades of mismanagement, ballooning debt, and empty promises. As living standards plummet and productivity collapses, the elites deflect blame —the elbows up slogan— while bringing in U.S.-based cheerleaders to sell their failures. The irony? Those in power now claim to have ‘found religion’—but their gospel is the same old hypocrisy. Yes, recall in 1992 the GST election. Please forward to Mike Myers.

Back in the buy zone. Yes Wall St is in the bunker. Long Term thesis still intact. Robots, Autonomous Driving, Robotaxi. $TSLA

Trump is anchored off of Clay and McKinley policies from the mid to late 1800’s.

ISM PMI Employment 43.4 Only time lower. 1) the internet bubble popping. 2) the GFC. 3) Covid-19.

$TSLA Long term thesis intact. Ignore the haters. Don’t bet against Elon.

Many problems get solves with a weaker USD. Weak dollar is critical. And we are getting it. Is anyone noticing. DXY 👇

No recession. A growth scare. By the end of 2025 the US economy will be humming along.

The Fed is now part of the problem. With the FFR at 4.375%, deflationary forces loom, yet Powell blindly crushes the private sector, ignoring that the private sector wasn’t overheating and causing inflation. The Fed’s mission creep and Keynesian bias are clear, firing Powell is overdue. Yellen’s failure to issue long-term debt at near-zero rates could cost taxpayers $1 trillion. Powell’s reckless mismanagement must end. Yes the Fed is politicized institution.

One of the key driving forces behind the first free trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada was the development of a continental energy plan. It appears that Canada’s reliance on a single customer for its national resources is nearing its end. We may see the emergence of a program aimed at building refineries, pipelines, and streamlining regulations for energy projects. Consequently, Canada is likely to diversify its client base for natural resources. While this transition will take time, the era of the U.S. obtaining inexpensive oil and natural gas from Canada at a discount is rapidly coming to a close.

Yes S&P 500 7000 for 2025. Yes S&P 500 target for 2026 is 8000. Yes S&P 500 target 14,000 by end of decade. Yes Gold target is still $5K. Yes Bitcoin target to still $200K. Yes FFR heading to 2.75%. No AI Bubble yet. Have a nice day.

CPI. Yes the Fed is either incompetent or has TDS. Yes Fed rate hikes contribute to inflation. Check your Macro 301 textbook. YoY Core Services 94% of CPI! CPI is almost all shelter. 65% of Core Services is shelter YoY 68% of Core Services is shelter MoM

Looks like it’s read to go. $TSLA

Go ahead tell me the Fed is apolitical again.