Non-partisan analysis feat. the trusted voices of @amyewalter, @redistrict, @jessicataylor, @ercovey & @charliecookDC. The right analysis for getting it right.
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Today, we're making three changes to our Electoral College Ratings.
AZ: Lean R to Toss Up
NV Lean R to Toss Up
GA: Lean R to Toss Up
@amyewalter on the presidential campaign reset: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
296
1,822
8,521
1,540,269
🚨 Electoral College rating change: Texas moves from Lean R to Toss Up
Read @amyewalter's latest analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
325
856
3,692
NEW: The electoral votes of three states — including North Carolina — move toward Democrats as the party's base comes home.
Minnesota: Lean D to Likely D
New Hampshire: Lean D to Likely D
North Carolina: Lean R to Toss Up
Read @amyewalter's analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
163
571
2,903
304,862
New by @Redistrict: "The landmark decision in Allen v. Milligan could reverberate across the Deep South, leading to the creation of new Black-majority, strongly Democratic seats in multiple states."
cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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543
1,889
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Today, we're making six changes to our Electoral College Ratings.
AZ: Toss Up to Lean R
GA: Toss Up to Lean R
MN: Likely D to Lean D
#NE02: Likely D to Lean D
NH: Likely D to Lean D
NV: Toss Up to Lean R
@amyewalter on the state of the race post-debate: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
225
836
2,330
1,307,051
🚨 New Electoral College rating changes:
Iowa - Lean R to Toss Up
Ohio - Lean R to Toss Up
Read @amyewalter's latest analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
102
520
1,739
Just three counties – Macomb County, MI; York County, PA and Waukesha County, WI – elected Donald Trump: bit.ly/2gSxVu7
203
1,722
1,631
Shomari Figures (D) flips #AL02, a seat that was redrawn to have a Black majority following a court order. For the first time ever, Alabama will have two Black members of Congress serving simultaneously.
40
295
1,589
953,373
Ratings Change: #TXSen moves from Likely R to Lean R
cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
68
456
1,124
One of the longest county voting streaks finally met its match tonight. Starr County, Texas — which was Democratic in every presidential election since 1896 — flips to Donald Trump.
23
407
1,346
590,178
Rating change alert:
#AZSen moves from Toss Up to Lean D
Read the full analysis from @JessicaTaylor: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
48
179
1,010
🚨 Rating Change: #SCSEN moves to Toss Up
Read @JessicaTaylor's latest: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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263
948
NEW rating change: #SCSen moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Read @JessicaTaylor's latest analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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232
873
Ratings Change: #SCSEN moves from Solid R to Likely R
cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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868
Today, we’re shifting two Governor Race Ratings back in Democrats’ direction:
#NCGov: Toss Up to Lean D
#WAGov: Lean D to Likely D
@JessicaTaylor breaks down the changes here: cookpolitical.com/analysis/g…
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181
938
192,718
#TXSEN: Ted Cruz (R) defeats Beto O'Rourke (D). GOP hold. Texas voted 52%-43% for Trump in 2016.
20
195
877
Three Senate ratings changes today:
#MTSEN: Likely D to Lean D ⇨
#TXSEN: Lean R to Toss Up ⇦
#WVSEN: Toss Up to Lean D ⇦
Full chart: cookpolitical.com/ratings/se…
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408
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In collaboration with BSG and GS Strategy Group, our latest Swing State Project poll shows Harris leading or tied with Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states and holding a lead of 48% to 47% overall.
Read @amyewalter's analysis: cookpolitical.com/survey-res…
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195
739
680,034
New rating change: #AZSEN moves from Lean D to Toss Up
Read @JessicaTaylor's analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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149
796
Another long streak ends tonight in Carlton County, Minnesota. Trump becomes the first Republican since Herbert Hoover in 1928 to win the working-class county in the Arrowhead.
12
195
778
124,929
New rating change:
#PASEN moves from Lean D to Toss Up
Read @JessicaTaylor's latest:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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178
702
Rep. Eli Crane easily wins renomination tonight in #AZ02 with over 78% of the vote. There was speculation last year that he could be vulnerable to a primary challenge after casting one of eight Republican votes to remove Kevin McCarthy as House speaker, but it never panned out.
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113
663
158,919
NEW: Final House rating changes in #AR02 #NJ03 #NJ05 #NY18 #PA17 #TX10 #TX24 #TX31
Read @Redistrict's latest: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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118
540
CPR Race Rating change: #WISEN shifts from Lean D to Toss Up
Read @JessicaTaylor's analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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625
1,288,205
NEW: As President Biden’s numbers show little sign of improvement, we’re making two big changes to our Electoral College Ratings.
Michigan (15 EVs): Lean D to Toss Up
Nevada (6 EVs): Lean D to Toss Up
@amyewalter explains both shifts here:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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208
589
278,013
🚨 Four new rating changes today:
#MIGOV: Lean D to Likely D
#PAGOV: Lean D to Likely D
#OKGOV: Solid R to Likely R
#OHGOV: Likely R to Solid R
Read @JessicaTaylor's latest: cookpolitical.com/analysis/g…
52
121
530
New Electoral College Ratings:
IA: Likely R to Lean R
MI: Toss Up to Lean D
OH: Likely R to Lean R
Read @amyewalter's full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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531
RATINGS CHANGE ALERT: Following the ACHA vote, we shifted our ratings in 20 districts: cookpolitical.com/story/1034…
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RATINGS CHANGE ALERT: #ALSen moves from Lean R to Toss Up. cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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In 2018, Democrats won 82% of Republican-held districts that Trump had carried by less than 5%.
This cycle, Republicans got just 36% of Democratic-held Biden 0-5% seats.
@amyewalter crunched the numbers on the GOP's struggles in the House: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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🚨We are making two governor rating changes today.
#MIGOV moves from Toss Up to Lean D. Read @JessicaTaylor's new analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/g…
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NEW: House rating changes in #IA03 #NY24 #NC11 #PA07 #PA16 #TX07 #VA07
Read @Redistrict's deep dive into all 58 competitive House races (🔒): cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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Rep. Ilhan Omar wins the Democratic primary in #MN05 over Don Samuels, 56%-43%.
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73
425
66,818
At this point, the most likely outcome is a GOP trifecta, including a continued narrow Republican House majority.
Read our initial analysis by @amyewalter, @Redistrict, @JessicaTaylor and @ercovey:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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97
483
124,522
NEW: Senate ratings changes:
#AZSen: Toss Up to Lean D
#IASen: Lean R to Toss Up
#GASen (Perdue): Lean R to Toss Up
#MNSen: Likely D to Solid D
#NMSen: Likely D to Solid D
Read @JessicaTaylor's Senate overview masterpiece:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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As @Redistrict notes, Republicans owe their House majority to just 6,675 votes spread across five races. That's 0.0062% of the 107.6 million votes cast in House races nationwide.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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157
387
138,993
🚨New Electoral College rating changes:
Florida - Lean D to Toss Up
Nevada - Likely D to Lean D
Read @amyewalter's latest: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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186
358
We are making three race rating changes:
#PASEN: Toss Up to Lean D
#COSEN: Likely D to Lean D
#UTSEN: Solid R to Likely R
Our full Senate race ratings can be found here: cookpolitical.com/ratings/se…
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93
358
New House rating changes:
#AKAL: Likely R to Toss Up
#AZ04: Lean D to Likely D
#MD06: Lean D to Likely D
#NY03: Toss Up to Lean D
#VA07: Toss Up to Lean D
Read the latest from @Redistrict (🔒): cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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Democrats get their first win in our House Toss Up column. Josh Riley (D) defeats Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) in #NY19.
2
34
341
42,723
ICYMI: We're increasing the range of expected Democratic Senate pick ups to 5-7 seats: bit.ly/2dRVFwZ
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250
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New House ratings changes:
#IL06 Toss Up to Lean D ⇦
#IL14 Lean R to Toss Up ⇦
#NV04 Likely D to Lean D ⇨
cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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CPR Race Rating Change: #TXSen moves to Lean R.
Read @JessicaTaylor's latest analysis, including why we view Texas as a slightly more competitive race than Florida: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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95
324
128,716
Trump could sweep our entire Toss Up column and still come short of 270. New ratings: bit.ly/2bsj7z4
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The CPR PollTracker finds Trump’s net job approval rating has dropped seven points since April 15, going from -3.9% to -10.7%. The biggest drop-off in approval ratings came from younger voters, Latinos and independents.
Read our latest: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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370
228,729
"Trump is trailing, not because he's losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it."
@amyewalter's latest: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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310
"Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020. This is a Toss Up."
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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73
309
72,073
Vice President Kamala Harris was dealt a really bad hand of cards, but she’s playing those cards flawlessly. Former President Trump started out with an excellent hand, but he’s playing it very poorly.
@CharlieCookDC on who is best-positioned to win: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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ANOTHER ONE: Rep. Cori Bush has been defeated in her #MO01 primary, losing to St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell. It’s the second loss for the Squad this cycle, following Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s loss in June.
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46
310
192,331
Rep. Pat Ryan (D) wins reelection in #NY18, defeating Alison Esposito (R) in a race we rated Lean D.
15
292
72,176
Race rating change: #MTSEN moves from Toss Up to Lean R.
Read @JessicaTaylor's latest: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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91
337
364,402
Two new House race rating changes:
#NJ07 Toss Up to Lean R
#VA07 Lean D to Toss Up
Read @ercovey's latest analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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67
328
108,988
🚨 Three House rating changes today:
#CO03 Likely R to Lean R
#ME02 Toss Up to Lean D
#VA05 Lean R to Toss Up
Full chart here: cookpolitical.com/ratings/ho…
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63
271
A call has been made in #FL09, a race we rated Likely D.
Rep. Darren Soto (D) wins reelection, currently leading 55%-43%.
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273
44,842
New Senate rating changes:
#FLSEN: Lean R to Likely R
#WASEN: Solid D to Likely D
#IASEN: Solid R to Likely R
Read @JessicaTaylor's latest analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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84
297
Our final Senate overview is out. We are changing our range of most likely outcomes to D+0 to R+3.
Read @JessicaTaylor's analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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89
296
Democrat Josh Stein is elected governor of North Carolina.
The election was dominated by GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's previous support of Nazis on the Internet.
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27
265
71,257
State Auditor Rob Sand's campaign for Iowa governor kicks its rating from Solid Republican to Lean Republican. #IAGov
Read more from @MattKleinOnline:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/g…
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323
166,651
Today's House ratings changes:
#NY25 Likely D to Solid D ⇦
#NC02 Likely R to Lean R ⇦
#OH01 Lean R to Toss Up ⇦
Full ratings chart: cookpolitical.com/ratings/ho…
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115
253
The brutal gerrymanders would transform the current 7D-7R delegation into as lopsided as an 11R-3D breakdown.
New North Carolina GOP Proposals Would Eliminate Up to Four Democrats' Seats by @Redistrict: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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170
245
56,083
As Republicans fret about low base enthusiasm, the special election in #TN07 shifts from Solid to Likely Republican.
Read more from @MattKleinOnline:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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49
324
83,154
New House rating change:
#MT01 moves from Likely R to Lean R
Read @Redistrict's analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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64
268
New Governors Ratings Changes:
#ILGOV Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat ⇦
#MNGOV Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat ⇦
#OKGOV Likely Republican to Lean Republican ⇦
#SDGOV Likely Republican to Toss Up ⇦
Full analysis by @jennifereduffy: cookpolitical.com/analysis/g…
15
140
259
Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) will return to the House from #NY03. This was the seat formerly held by the ignominious George Santos. Our rating was Likely D.
2
20
250
34,701
In the #SC03 Republican runoff, nurse practitioner Sheri Biggs has defeated televangelist Mark Burns.
It's a loss for Donald Trump, who had endorsed Burns. Gov. Henry McMaster, by contrast, backed Biggs.
6
50
234
43,679
#KSGOV: Laura Kelly (D) defeats Kris Kobach (R). Democrat flip. Kansas voted 58%-36% for Trump in 2016.
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87
236
In collaboration with BSG and GS Strategy Group, our latest Swing State Project poll shows Harris leading or tied with Trump in all but 1 of the 7 battleground states and holding a lead of 49% to 48% overall.
@amyewalter & @JessicaTaylor's analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
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56
252
518,624
NEW: Today, we released data from our Swing State project, showing Dem Senate candidates continuing to run strong in every swing presidential state, far outpacing Harris.
Read @JessicaTaylor's analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
10
85
245
111,694
Our new Swing State Project polls out this morning show Democratic Senate candidates running strong in every presidential battleground, plus a lead for Josh Stein (D) in the #NCGov race.
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69
238
48,206
Ratings Change: #ORGOV shifts from Lean D to Toss Up
cookpolitical.com/analysis/g…
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137
181
Two ratings changes today:
#VA10 - Toss Up to Lean D
#KY06 - Lean R to Toss Up
Full chart - cookpolitical.com/ratings/ho…
13
92
215
Four NEW Senate rating changes today:
#FLSEN: Likely R → Lean R
#NVSEN Likely D → Lean D
#NHSEN Likely D → Lean D
#WISEN: Lean R → Toss Up
Don't miss @JessicaTaylor's masterpiece Senate overview (🔒): cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
25
96
239
Our initial 2023 Governor ratings are out:
#KYGov (Beshear): Lean D
#LAGov (OPEN): Lean R
#MSGov (Reeves): Solid R
Read @JessicaTaylor's full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/g…
12
34
243
78,084
The next U.S. House appears likely to have 23 "crossover districts" (seats held by the party opposite the most recent presidential winner), an uptick from the current low of 16.
@Redistrict breaks down which candidates won on the toughest terrain: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
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65
235
New: We just released our Biden vs. Trump national polling average, which tracks the presidential race via a curated average of national polls.
Trump’s current 47%-44% lead is the most drastic shift in the race all year.
Read @Redistrict's analysis: cookpolitical.com/survey-res…
23
118
260
63,315
RATINGS CHANGES! We're shifting the ratings in 21 districts: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
18
98
225
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) will face venture capitalist Eric Hovde (R) for #WISen. We rate the race Lean Democrat.
5
21
200
28,542
NEW tonight: We're shifting #PA10 from Likely R to Lean R.
The seat is currently held by outgoing Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
4
38
228
156,911
President Biden was narrowly trailing Donald Trump ahead of the June 27 debate. That gap has grown slightly larger since then.
Given our closely-divided electorate, even a seemingly small two-point shift is significant.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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51
235
55,513
NEW: "We are increasing our current projection of the most likely outcome to a Democratic net gain of between two and seven Senate seats."
Read @JessicaTaylor's latest masterpiece which includes three new rating changes (🔒): cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
17
59
216
Another House race stays with Democrats: #PA17, a suburban Pittsburgh seat held by Rep. Chris Deluzio (D).
Was Lean D in our ratings.
20
206
36,774
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R) wins reelection in #FL13. Her Freedom Caucus ties made her a target for some Democrats, but we considered it a longshot throughout. Our rating: Likely R.
2
13
235
65,490
Rep. Greg Landsman (D) wins reelection in #OH01, based in Cincinnati. He flipped the seat — which we rated Likely D — blue in 2022.
9
194
43,592
Sources who spoke with The Cook Political Report believe it’s likely that former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) runs for governor of Alaska, easing the reelection path of Rep. Nick Begich III (R) in #AKAL.
Read @ercovey's reporting on Alaska's 2026 House race: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
11
46
226
147,061
In one of Democrats' more impressive congressional victories so far, state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) has won the open #MI08 seat held by outgoing Rep. Dan Kildee (D). This was a Toss Up.
10
201
20,798
CPR Race Rating change: #PA10 moves from Lean R to Toss Up
Read @ercovey's analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
11
44
165
54,821
Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids is called as the winner in #KS03. We had it rated Likely D.
1
10
177
38,254
Rating change: #COSEN moves from Toss Up to Lean D
Read @JessicaTaylor's latest: cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
5
53
178
A blue wave is building; the only question now is whether it can be sustained for another twelve months.
Read our analysis from @amyewalter, @JessicaTaylor, @ercovey & @MattKleinOnline:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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39
224
64,430