Non-partisan political analyst. Founder and Contributor to The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, political analyst and columnist for National Journal.
Harpswell, Maine
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Make no mistake about it, when a party holds the White House and majorities in both the House and Senate, they “own” any government shutdown. Things the President has said and done over the last week have only increased the price the GOP has to pay for that ownership.
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Good news for the President? He did not hurt himself, unlike first debate. The bad news? He was ten points behind and did not help himself. Race not changed. A Republican had no reason to feel better had debate. Biden did not do a face plant. That is all he needed to do.
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I don’t Tweet very much but reading transcript has moved me to comment. I was totally underwhelmed by the transcript. After the build-up, it was not much more inappropriate said than we hear from him in a typical week. This will not move malleable voters.
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It is now official, Amy Walter is taking over the Cook Political Report, new name “Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.” Rest of team will reman in place, I will be spending my time still analyzing politics, writing my columns, giving speeches, helping out CPRwAW.
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Anyone ever see a ten-point drop in Gallup presidential approval in less than a month, from 49% to 39% news.gallup.com/poll/203198/… #2020elections
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National Journal has unlocked my column early, here it is, might need to fill out a form to access. Unlocked link: njour.nl/s/711037?unlock=SRT…
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Not sure that I have ever seen a ten-point drop in Gallup presidential approval rating from 1 poll to the next, from 49% to 39% in less than a month. news.gallup.com/poll/203198/…
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Life is too short to look at bad polls. Withhold judgement on what is or is not happening post-convention until several live-telephone interview polls come in. I think the pre-convention structure of this race is still very intact and mostly unchanged.
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Take a close look at the new Fox News poll released tonight. This race is OVER.
foxnews.com/politics/interac…
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@CookPolitical Check out the Cook Political Report’s two new visualizations of the Electoral College contest. 1/2
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1/2 The Cook Political Report has updated Electoral College ratings out this morning, 279 EV leaning, likely or solid Dem, 188 leaning, likely or solid Rep, 71 in Toss Up (AZ, FL, GA & NC). MI, PA and WI have moved to lean Dem. cookpolitical.com/sites/defa…
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1/2 It is now 8/1, I would like to be the first to congratulate @amyewalter in her new position as Editor-in-Chief & Publisher of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. I look forward to continuing to work w/Amy, Kathryn Hamm, David Wasserman, Ally Flinn and Jessica Taylor.
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Thank God David Axelrod is on CNN. No one else on CNN seems to understand that the process is different this time. Sadly I am stuck in a hotel room that only has CNN. CNN is embarrassing themselves
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A great man, George H.W. Bush, just passed away tonight. Truly underestimated in his own time. Jon Meacham’s recent biography of him is really good, reminds us of what true public servants, totally prepared to be President, were like. And a a thoroughly decent man.
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Biden’s veep choice is NOT important electorally, but in terms of governing and the direction of the Democratic Party, it is. No running mate since JFK picked LBJ in 1960 has mattered. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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This in response to the Drudge Report piece that Bloomberg was considering Hillary Clinton for running mate. Somebody needs to read up their Constitution, Article II, Section 3, Prez and VP can’t be from same state. Doubt that anyone from Bloomberg campaign actually said this
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Take a look at this in The Atlantic, written Monday, BEFORE the Caucus started. theatlantic.com/politics/arc…
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Following up on a previous Tweet. This Atlantic article was written yesterday morning or afternoon and almost predicts what happened. A new system, run by volunteers with new technology. What could possibly go wrong? theatlantic.com/politics/arc…
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From earlier this week, cookpolitical.com/analysis/n… . This race has not closed at all.
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Dropped 7 points among Republicans, 7 points with independents & 9 points with Democrats, he had been unusually high with 14%, dropped to 5%, more normal.
Anyone ever see a ten-point drop in Gallup presidential approval in less than a month, from 49% to 39% news.gallup.com/poll/203198/… #2020elections
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The GOP will have a lot of time to think about what they did this year.But maybe less time than they think'
bit.ly/2eo15Qe
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“Liquor stores and bars in North America are pulling Russian vodka off their shelves — and in some cases, pouring it down the drain — in protest of the country’s invasion of Ukraine,” the Miami Herald reports. Our vodka, Tito’s, comes from Austin, Texas anyway.
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Biden Administration’s announcement of ending the 25% tariff on single malt Scotch whiskey is something that I think plenty of people on both sides and those of us in the middle as well.
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John Dingell passing last night is deeply saddening. Truly one of the finest people I have ever known, someone who changed millions of lives. Here is the column I wrote 5 years ago after he announced his retirement from Congress. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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I am really excited to be named co-author of the 2020 Almanac of American Politics, working with chief author Rich Cohen. It’s an iconic book that I have religiously used since buying the first edition in 1972, when I was a senior in high school. columbiabooks.com/Newsdetail…
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Those around in 1980 might recall that Birch Bath, the first Democratic Senate incumbent to lose, was about 6:30 pm ET, another dropped roughly every half hour for six hours, totaling 12. This won’t hit 12 but could get to be a pretty big number.
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Still waiting to hear back from @rushlimbaugh rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2018/…. It would seem our forecast was dead on.
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Things may be worse than it appears —-> nationaljournal.com/s/663690…
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It would appear that Kavanaugh confirmation fight was a “color-enhancing event,” making the “reds” redder & the “blues” bluer. Helps Democrats in House & Republicans in the Senate. Will also tend to help Democrats in govs & st legs. Of course the blue wave is really pink.
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Yes, to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumors of my retirement are greatly exaggerated. Just moving to phase III of my professional career, the part not running a small business, but knowing that it is in better hands.
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The painting was done by a South Carolina artist named Bernie Horton. Bought it 8 years ago for my wife for our 30th anniversary. She had fallen in love with it in a Charleston gallery.
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For those obsessed about the election and “calls” on Election Night,” this is a good piece to read: journalistsresource.org/stud…
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The real drama and uncertainty in this election is in the fight over the Senate. It is increasingly probably that Dems will take the Senate, but if they do, how big that majority be: 50, 51,52,53, 54, 55, 56 or even more? cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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We hear substantial concern from our Republican sources, this NBC/WSJ Poll Question on the generic ballot test is another sign of wave that appears to be developing. Things can change over next 10 months but for Republicans, they need to change a lot. —-> nbcnews.com/politics/first-r…
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Here is my latest Republican presidential nomination race analysis in front of National Journal paywall. Just click the “continue” button and you get it. njour.nl/s/722575?unlock=Q2P…
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Senate likely to flip, new estimate Dem gain 5-7 seats. Jennifer Duffy's story: cookpolitical.com/story/1011…
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Anyone concerned w/coronavirus might find interesting that when I arrived yesterday at SFO on non-stop UA862 from Hong Kong, I didn’t see the slightest sign of CDC, Public Health Service or any health/medical type checking out arriving passengers.
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2/2 Amy Walter’s Cook Political Report write-up on new Electoral College ratings. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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Dems, Reps, Libs, Cons: take pause from Kavanaugh obsesion, big story is the 3/4 of governors & 4/5 of state leg seats up. Power has shifted to the states, whether abortion, Medicaid expansion/contraction, voter access/suppression/security, nationaljournal.com/s/673260…
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New Cook Political Report/LSU Manship School of Communications national poll with over sampling of voters in the 72 most competitive House CD’s, done in conjunction w/ Manship School Fellow James Carville. lsu.edu/manship/news/2018/oc…
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Trump Gallup job rating lowest yet. This dip preceded Charlottesville. gallup.com/opinion/polling-m…
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1/2 Democrats paid a steep price yesterday for misreading of the 2020 election results by President Biden and Congressional Democrats. Just barely winning an election does not create a mandate for transformational change. Mandates are awarded by voters, not self-proclaimed.
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The Cook Politcal Report is really excited about our joint project with the Kaiser Family Foundation polling voters in 4 key 2020 states, MI, MN, PA and WI. Check it out here: kff.org/other/report/blue-wa…
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piped.video/KxkeNQzWKBQ for those who obsess over contested elections.
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My National Journal column from Thursday on the disaster for the GOP is now in front of the our paywall. I will no longer be able to say that debates don’t matter. Pres. Trump’s self-destruction is going to cost Republicans a lot of seats. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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If Trump or Carson win GOP nomination, I will eat crow. Not worried about it: nationaljournal.com/s/120719…
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2/2 I now look forward to doing what I love most, studying & analyzing politics, writing my column, speaking about US elections & political trends, & continuing to work with Amy, Kathryn Hamm, David Wasserman, Jessica Taylor & Ally Flinn at Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
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John Dingell is a national treasure, the gold standard for legislators. The entire Cook Family is rooting for John and Debbie, who is carrying on John’s tradition.
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It’s unfortunate that only 62% of Iowa Caucus vote released. But I hope nobody at a network complains, who works for a network that frequently reports election night results with under 1% of vote counted. Just sayin.
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For the serious political junkies, Cook Political Report Senate Editor Jessica Taylor’s 4,832 word Senate overview is now up, in front of our paywall because of website issues, at cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…, several rating changes.
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Farm sentiment is “collapsing” according to Purdue University survey of farmers out this morning. Has dropped four months in a row and seven of last eight months. 2020 turnout issue? ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/a…
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Dem odds of a trifecta (winning WH, Senate & House) now better than one-in-cookpolitical.com/analysis/n….
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Thank you Jeffrey, very nice of you to say. I could not be more proud of all three of you, very different people, different directions, but all three wonderful.
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Wave elections in presidential years are very rare, only 1964 and 1980 in my lifetime, was interesting that 49-state landslides in 1972 and 1984 didn’t trigger waves.
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2/Record Trump lows: Fox News, NBC/WSJ &Gallup Organization (3 nite moving avg thruSun. night showed Trump’s app rating just 33%,62% disapp.
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If anyone is not sick of politics, I am doing a speech at 12:30pm CDT to the American Academy of Actuaries that CSPAN-1 is carrying live.
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Great analysis of GOP delegate chase by Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, jointly with fivethirtyeight fivethirtyeight.com/features…
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Like it or not, President Trump is doing what he said he would do. Why are we surprised?
nationaljournal.com/s/647453…
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Because the Senate races are primarily in very red states, of 17 Senate races with any doubt of outcome at all, 14 are in Trump states. Also other things going on in Govs/Legs. Look at Kansas & Okla govs, very red states, very tough races. School funding key I suspect.
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Trump’s lowest Gallup ever was 35% in late 2017. My guess is that is pretty much his floor, that hyper -partisanship creates pretty rigid floors and ceilings, neither base wlll ever cave in.
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Now David Wasserman’s take on how the upcoming SCOTUS fight could affect the election in the Cook Political Report cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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What is so appealing to his base is what keeps him from being an effective President. njour.nl/s/655796?unlock=52A…
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For anyone following the 2018 midterm Congressional elections, you should take a look at this graph—> projects.fivethirtyeight.com…
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If anyone is looking for a political fix tomorrow (Sunday) at 8:00 am ET, I will be doing C-SPAN’s Washington Journal, apparently I have appeared on C-SPAN 181 times over the years.
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Really insightful analysis from Bruce Mehlman, one of the smartest people in DC. mehlmancastagnetti.com/wp-co…
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If you haven’t had your fill of politics this week, I am doing an hour-long interview on CSPAN-1 at 9:00am tomorrow (Saturday).
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1/ 1/ negative polls, indictments and a guilty plea, the recent news for midterm election is almost uniformly depressing for GOP.
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Cook Political Report collaborated with Kaiser Family Foundation to take a close look at 2020 swing voters. Report & questionnaire at kff.org/other/issue-brief/da…
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Not sure the evidence completely supports the thesis but interesting concept: Oxford study argues that 2% fewer robots in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, fewer job losses, Trump wouldn’t have won those 3 states: technologyreview.com/s/61142…
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The real journalist in the Cook Family, ABC News’ Jeffrey Cook, just a couple weeks into the Capitol Hill beat, pulls his first all-nighter last night covering the Budget votes!
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David Wasserman's smart take on GA-6: cookpolitical.com/story/1039…
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3/Intensity elected DJT now intensity his problem, for every person strongly approves Trump’s job, there are two strongly disapprove.
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Watch for serious fight for control,of US House in 2018!
nationaljournal.com/s/648422…
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Okay the Dodger fan sitting next to me was just removed from the ballpark for cursing, nice guy, just lost his sh*t in the 10th inning. I am being very quiet and put my blue pullover over my red shirt to be as unobtrusive as possible.
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Great interview of Savid Wasserman by Greg Sargent washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
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We are really proud of our son David! After the Army & Afghanistan, he just received his degree and now taking the first rungs on the ladder of football coaching. Today, Tight Ends Coordinator at a D-III college, NCAA D-I look out!!!
@PCC_FOOTBALL @flem021 @VirgPalumbo @CoachSmetanka @SVC_Football #CHAINGANG Personal Note: The Next Chapter.
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The Cook Political Report is pleased to co-sponsor with the Harkin Institute this important event on non-partisan redistricting, how Iowa, the model for the country, does it. eventbrite.com/e/drawn-out-h…
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If anyone is bored on this Sunday morning, I am being interviewed from 8:00 until 8:45 am EDT on C-SPAN’s “Washington Journal,” on C-SPAN 1.
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The analytics firm Quorum has produced a fascinating report on House Members willingness to work across partisan lines & the partisanship of their respective Congressional districts as measured by their Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index.
quorum.us/resources/quorum-c…
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Worth reading.
nbcnews.to/2hZot73
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Always amazed at people’s ability to cherry-pick polling data to confirm what they want to see. Yes, many individual elements are popular, and should be. But entire package is not. Biden’s job ratings, lowest of any elected president at this point in polling history.
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Sorry, here is column unlocked ---> nationaljournal.com/s/653150…
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Friday I had fun joining Al Hunt and James Carville on their weekly podcast podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…. Never a dull moment with that pair.
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Kudos to West Virginia. nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/we…
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1/2 This is how vaccine mandate should have been sold —> Vaccine mandates are as old as our country. Not only did GW require soldiers to get smallpox vaccines in 1777, loc.gov/rr/scitech/GW&smallp… but SCOTUS affirmed mandates in 1905 law.cornell.edu/supremecourt…
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For people interested in Democrats and 2020 presidential politics, the first part of Mike Allen’s piece this morning on Axios is the most important thing you could read today. axios.com/newsletters/axios-…
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Where the House races are (and are not)—-> nationaljournal.com/s/663580…
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I have read and highly recommend this book. Follow this on Twitter, you will learn a lot about presidential propaganda.
Manipulating the Masses: Woodrow Wilson and the Birth of American Propaganda by John Hamilton is out October 21! Pre-order a copy now: rb.gy/3fzljc
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Who will define Democrats in 2020 and why it matters. njour.nl/s/677065?unlock=ZDV…
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It’s a sad day. cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
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