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Stay informed with BFI's Weekly Briefing🗞️—your source for the latest research insights, upcoming events, and more from the Becker Friedman Institute for Economics.
👉Subscribe now: bfi.uchicago.edu/subscribe
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The inaugural Women in Empirical Microeconomics Conference is a wrap, after two days of amazing presentations and discussions! @WiEMecon
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(1/2) Measuring global GDP is challenging, especially in middle- and low-income countries where reliable statistics are scarce.
In new research, @HansbergRossi combines nighttime lights, land use, emissions, and a random forest model to estimate subnational GDP.
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Available now! A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017 is now online and available for pre-order in print.
The work is a comprehensive look at 6 decades of macroeconomic policies across the region. Learn more: bit.ly/2LSOqIZ
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We are excited to welcome Prof. Michael Kremer to the University of Chicago! bit.ly/2ElG4Wz
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Introducing Pandemic Economics - a podcast from BFI & @Stitcher exploring the economic impact of COVID-19.
Hosts @PorterEduardo & @TessVigeland talk to @UChicago economists about their research, sharing insights into this moment. New episodes weekly! bit.ly/2XXXoIH
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Robert E. Lucas Jr.'s research on rational expectations transformed the field of macroeconomics.
Read more about how his pioneering research had a profound effect: bit.ly/3M5mVqM
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NEW: Research finds WFH resulted in a significant increase in total hours worked, but a decrease in productivity by about 20%.
Analysis from Friederike Mengel, Christoph Siemroth & @ChicagoBooth's Michael Gibbs provides key insights for the future of working from home.
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When Colombia introduced a new law to cap spending by local governments, overspending & deficits dropped, while living standards remained unchanged. Voters became more satisfied & incumbents were reelected.
@HarrisPolicy's Luis Martínez & @mariacarreri
ow.ly/1xZU50QNs4S
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Using data on night-time lights captured by satellites, @HarrisPolicy's Luis Martínez shows that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by as much as 35%.
ow.ly/HR8950R4qLE
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Why do people hate inflation? Employers don’t raise wages automatically, so workers must fight for raises—making the true cost of inflation even higher for them. Research by Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian, & Christina Patterson (@ChicagoBooth) ow.ly/F1Cq50W0tez
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What does the Spanish colonial empire in Latin America tell us about the effects of state formation on economic development & political institutions?
ow.ly/2pXz50S4n6l
@HarrisPolicy's @LuisRMartinezA, @GChiovelli, @LeopoldoTweets, @jdtorres96, & Felipe Valencia Caicedo
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FINDING: Cognitive behavior therapy alone, and therapy with economic assistance, produce dramatic reductions in crime and violence, with greatest impacts among high-risk men. The effects of therapy alone are smaller and more fragile.
New research from @HarrisPolicy’s @cblatts:
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In Denmark, most intergenerational mobility variation is due to family location choices and random factors. Urban areas promote greater upward mobility than rural ones. New research brief from Steven Durlauf (@HarrisPolicy)and co-authors. ow.ly/rw9q50UnGnR
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NEW: A first-of-its-kind study shows lifetime earnings of the median male worker entering the US labor market declined by 10% from 1967 to 1983 - roughly a loss of $136,000.
Explore the findings from @fatihguvenen, @GregWKaplan (@UChi_Economics), Jae Song, Justin Weidner:
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.@UChi_Economics' Michael Greenstone was named the Distinguished Lecturer for the American Economic Association's Annual Meeting last week, discussing "The Economics of the Global Energy Challenge". Watch the lecture here:
#ASSA2024
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Long-run exposure to Arab-Muslims decreases White Americans’ prejudices, reduces support for Trump & the Muslim Ban, & increases altruism toward Arab countries.
@UChi_Economics' Leonardo Bursztyn, Thomas Chaney, @t_a_hassan, @aakaash_rao
bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/res…
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64% of TikTok users would be better off if the app didn't exist. TikTok users would pay $28 to have others, including themselves, delete their accounts .
@UChi_Economics' Leonardo Bursztyn, Benjamin Handel, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, & Christopher Roth
ow.ly/3iYJ50QUjyu
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FACT: The negative economic shock caused by COVID-19 is similar to a supply shock that causes a reduction in aggregate demand larger than the original reduction in labor supply.
New work from @VeronicaGuerri7, et al.:
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Why has productivity growth lagged since the 70s, despite the rapid pace of innovation in tech & electronics? Advances have been unbalanced across sectors & have created bottlenecks.
@ChicagoBooth's Christina Patterson, @DAcemogluMIT, & @davidautor
bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/res…
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Call for Papers: 2025 Macroeconomic Policy Perspectives Conference: The Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences of Inflation, hosted by BFI & JPE Macro, will be held October 16-17, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. More info and submission link here: ow.ly/OGIo50UVh9m
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New research that centers the cost of slavery on enslaved people reveals that emancipation led to the single greatest annual increase in aggregate economic surplus, by far, in American history.
From @ChicagoBooth's @Rick__Hornbeck & @TrevonDLogan:
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New Paper: Scholars from a range of institutions, including @UChi_Economics' Michael Kremer, explore opportunities for stretching COVID-19 vaccine supplies.
They find alternative dosing regimens could dramatically accelerate global vaccination. Read more: bit.ly/3pF8r5c
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In Denmark, most intergenerational mobility variation is due to family location choices and random factors. Urban areas promote greater upward mobility than rural ones. New research brief from Steven Durlauf (@HarrisPolicy)and co-authors. ow.ly/rw9q50UnGnR
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64% of TikTok users would be better off if the app didn't exist. TikTok users would pay $28 to have others, including themselves, delete their accounts .
@UChi_Economics' Leonardo Bursztyn, Benjamin Handel, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, & Christopher Roth.
bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/res…
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We are excited to announce that @UChi_Economics’ Michael Greenstone has been appointed the inaugural leader of UChicago’s new Climate and Energy Institute, and Erik Hurst (@UChi_Economics) has been appointed director of BFI!
news.uchicago.edu/story/erik…
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Using data on night-time lights captured by satellites, @HarrisPolicy's Luis Martínez shows that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by as much as 35%.
ow.ly/HR8950R4qLE
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New research confirms that recessions are good for our health. The Great Recession provided 1 in 25 55-year-olds w/ an extra year of life, largely due to decreased pollution.
@ChicagoBooth's @ProfNoto, @FrankSchilbach, Jonathan Zhang, & Amy Finkelstein
ow.ly/KqOw50QIKvS
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Christina Patterson (@ChicagoBooth) explored how national firms influence local wages, raising concerns about wage inequality, labor market power, and economic responses to local shocks. Watch here: piped.video/tLYtrAr6j7s
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Fewer students in Chile had access to college under Pinochet's dictatorship. They experienced higher mortality rates, worse labor market outcomes, & their children were less likely to attend college.
More from @HarrisPolicy's @LuisRMartinezA, Maria Angélica Bautista, & coauthors
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Unplanned pregnancies halt women’s careers & reduce income by 20%, w/ larger effects for younger women & those in school. Planned children have minimal impact.
@HarrisPolicy's @GallenYana, @EvaRye, @gregveramendi, & Juanna Schrøter Joensen.
ow.ly/ablk50QHXut
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Research by Asger Andersen, Kilian Huber (@ChicagoBooth), Niels Johannesen, Ludwig Straub, & Emil Toft Vestergaard advances economic tracking, enhancing aggregate measures with disaggregated accounts, offering deeper insights into economic shocks. ow.ly/Gt5a50VPqF3
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Using data on night-time lights captured by satellites, @HarrisPolicy's Luis Martínez shows that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by as much as 35%.
ow.ly/HR8950R4qLE
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A new randomized evaluation shows that a highly structured and standardized education model has the potential to substantially improve learning outcomes: bfi.uchicago.edu/working-pap… @dil_uchi @owenozier @AW_Baker
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NEW: Research employing path-breaking AI tools measures the representation of race, gender and age in US children’s books over the last century.
Explore the findings with a new interactive and brief. From @alexeble, @TeodoraSzasz & @HarrisPolicy's @AAdukia, @EmileigHarrison:
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When Colombia introduced a new law to cap spending by local governments, overspending & deficits dropped, while living standards remained unchanged. Voters became more satisfied & incumbents were reelected.
@HarrisPolicy's Luis Martínez & @mariacarreri
ow.ly/1xZU50QNs4S
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Fewer students in Chile had access to college under Pinochet. They experienced higher mortality, worse labor market outcomes, & their kids were less likely to go to college.
@HarrisPolicy's @LuisRMartinezA, Maria Angélica Bautista, & coauthors
ow.ly/e6ez50R4qyC
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(2/2) The result? New annual estimates of local GDP at 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25° resolution—unlocking insights into economic shocks, local policies, and regional disparities.
Explore the interactive map: bfidatastudio.org/project/lo… #econtwitter
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FINDING: Long-run exposure to Arab-Muslims causally decreases White Americans’ explicit and implicit prejudices, reduces support for the Muslim Ban, and increases altruism toward Arab countries.
From @UChi_Economics Leo Bursztyn, Thomas Chaney, Tarek Hassan, @aakaash_rao:
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The locations of ancient ports near the Mediterranean reveal that large cities cast “agglomeration shadows” that discourage economic activity in nearby areas.
@ChicagoBooth's Richard Hornbeck, Guy Michaels, & Ferdinand Rauch
bfi.uchicago.edu/insights/id…
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WATCH: @DAcemogluMIT discussed his new book, “Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity” and how the path of digital technology/AI can be brought under control. piped.video/watch?v=4wpg_qr3…
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Fewer students in Chile had access to college under Pinochet. They experienced higher mortality, worse labor market outcomes, & their kids were less likely to go to college.
@HarrisPolicy's @LuisRMartinezA, Maria Angélica Bautista, & coauthors
ow.ly/e6ez50R4qyC
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CALL FOR PAPERS: The Women in Empirical Microeconomics Conference 2024 seeks to offer a platform for innovative empirical research in microeconomics. All interested researchers are invited to send submissions. ow.ly/zZe650QHV43
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Unplanned pregnancies halt women’s careers & reduce income by 20%, w/ larger effects for younger women & those in school. Planned children have minimal impact.
@HarrisPolicy's @GallenYana, @EvaRye, @gregveramendi, & Juanna Schrøter Joensen.
ow.ly/ablk50QHXut
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BRIEF: The literature assumes that replacing minimum wage jobs is easy. In reality, workers experience earnings losses for up to six years following job loss.
Research from @evankrose (@uchi_economics) & Yotam Shem-Tov:
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Congratulations to @UChi_Economics' @mdeshecon, @ChicagoBooth's @alexoimas, and Yueran Ma on being named 2023 @SloanFoundation Research Fellows in Economics! #SloanFellow sloan.org/fellowships/2023-F…
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Spread the word! BFI has launched a new Summer Institute aimed at expanding diversity among economics majors.
The goal: To identify and support talented early-college students from a broad range of backgrounds interested in the study of economics.
More Info & Application:
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FINDING: Upon receiving large cash payments, average productivity among poor workers increases while mistakes decline, which suggests that alleviating financial concerns can make workers more attentive and productive.
New from @supKaur, @m_sendhil, @suannaoh, @FrankSchilbach:
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What happens when work requirements are eliminated?
@UChicagoLaw's @jacobsgoldin, @TatianaHomonoff, @michelmorek, Neel A. Lal, & Ithai Lurie show that eliminating the work requirement in CA's Young Child Tax Credit didn't cause mothers to stop working.
ow.ly/vIUy50RSOSV
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ICYMI: The negative economic shock caused by COVID-19 is similar to a supply shock that causes a reduction in aggregate demand larger than the original reduction in labor supply.
New work from @VeronicaGuerri7, @guido_lorenzoni, @ludwigstraub & @IvanWerning:
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Do higher interest rates raise or lower inflation?
@JohnHCochrane reviews the evidence and finds only weak support for the standard view that raising interest rates lowers inflation. Read the research:
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Long-term exposure to Arab-Muslims reduces White Americans’ biases, lowers support for Trump and the Muslim Ban, and boosts altruism toward Arab nations and other foreign groups. Research by Leonardo Bursztyn, Thomas Chaney, Tarek Hassan, and Aakaash Rao: ow.ly/iIKU50W8C94
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Introducing the 2024 cohort of Price Theory Summer Camp!
These 40 econ PhD students will spend one week this summer at @UChicago where they will receive intensive training on price theory through faculty lectures and Chicago-style seminars. ow.ly/lgwj50Rmv7o
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New research from @UChi_Economics' John List suggests that human capital accumulation is fundamentally a social activity.
List and co-authors explore the effects of group interactions in a series of early childhood programs delivered to low-income families.
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Application open! Central bankers, join @Ben_Moll & @GregWKaplan for the 2022 Master Class on Monetary and Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneity.
Learn more about the four-day course taking place in London from June 7-10:
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Parents’ beliefs about economic mobility shape their investments of time and money in children; this finding holds for economically advantaged and disadvantaged families alike. Research from @ariel_kalil (@HarrisPolicy) and co-authors. ow.ly/Ahhg50UVigt
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Relative to a white driver traveling the same speed, minorities are 24 -33% more likely to be stopped for speeding and to pay 23-34% more in fines.
Research @UChi_Economics' @Econ_4_Everyone, @pradhiaggarwal, @7hoenix, @_ThomasYu & co-authors:
ow.ly/hVgO50Qxk7t
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New Paper: Has political partisanship affected risk perceptions of individuals during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic?
Research from @Barrios_Econ & @YaelHochberg shows political partisanship has played a significant role in risk perception and resulting differences in behavior.
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What are the advantages and limitations of using quantitative models to guide policy amid COVID-19 uncertainty?
@UncertainLars offers his thoughts in a new white paper:
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Economic underperformance in autocracies is largely a personalist penalty: concentrated power lowers investment, weakens public goods, and fuels conflict—unlike institutionalized regimes. New research brief from @HarrisPolicy's @cblatts and Scott Gehlbach: ow.ly/QtKQ50WG7Zu
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Using data on night-time lights captured by satellites, @HarrisPolicy's Luis Martínez shows that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by as much as 35%.
ow.ly/HR8950R4qLE
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New working paper, "Difference-in-Differences in the Marketplace," by @UChi_Economics' Casey Mulligan and Robert Minton uses the industry model from price theory to represent the statistical concepts of treatments and controls.
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Fewer students in Chile had access to college under Pinochet's dictatorship. They experienced higher mortality rates, worse labor market outcomes, & their children were less likely to attend college.
More from @HarrisPolicy's @LuisRMartinezA, Maria Angélica Bautista, & coauthors
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Today, @BeckerFriedman and @Insper are announcing a multi-year research collaboration aimed at producing new insights on economic policy issues facing Brazil and inspiring a new generation of early career researchers.
Read the full announcement here: bit.ly/42sO5hT
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How might the stress associated with poverty affect decision-making? @Noahpinion features @M_Sendhil's research into poverty's mental toll. bloom.bg/32cvp84
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Unplanned pregnancies halt women’s careers & reduce income by 20%, w/ larger effects for younger women & those in school. Planned children have minimal impact.
@HarrisPolicy's @GallenYana, @EvaRye, @gregveramendi, & Juanna Schrøter Joensen.
ow.ly/ablk50QHXut
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Are algorithms overhyped? New research from @HarrisPolicy's Jens Ludwig, @ChicagoBooth's @m_sendhil, & @asheshrambachan on the effectiveness of algorithms for addressing public policy problems suggests the opposite:
ow.ly/HhFZ50QGI9o
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Interested in helping UChicago economists w/ research before applying to grad school? John List (@Econ_4_Everyone) is hiring full-time Research Professionals to assist w/ using field experiments to explore economic questions. bit.ly/3tiw5Lg
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FACT: Lockdowns substantially lower consumer spending, decrease employment, and lower inflation expectations, but they raise unemployment rate expectations, putting additional downward pressure on aggregate demand.
New analysis from Michael Weber, et al.:
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Innovation drives growth, and understanding who invents can help reduce inequality. This project from @ufukakcigit (@UChi_Economics) & @ngoldschlag links census data to 760K+ inventors with patents from 2000-2016 for new insights. Explore the interactive: ow.ly/fksf50VX7LS
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Why do some places have communal property rights, some private? Places where land needs to be fallowed longer are more likely to have communal property rights, historically & presently.
@HarrisPolicy's @emontero_CR, @sararlowes, Etienne Le Rossignol
ow.ly/sGXk50R2egE
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REGISTER: This year's virtual Women in Macro Conference features the work of influential economists from around the world in the field of macroeconomics.
Registration is open for the virtual conference on 9/24. #WomeninMacro
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ICYMI: How did US households spend the $1200 stimulus payments?
Using a large-scale survey of US consumers, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko & @ChicagoBooth's Michael Weber study how the one-time transfer affected consumption:
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Join us in welcoming the 2023-2024 Class of Saieh Family Fellows! This academic year, nine early-career economists join the Saieh Family Fellows in Economics: Ludwig Straub, Tim Ederer, @bennykleinman, @castrovincenzi, @AgathePernoud, @PaulineCarry, Yong Cai, and Molly Schnell!
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Watch @ChicagoBooth Professor Richard Thaler and @Harvard Professor Cass Sunstein discuss “nudging for good,” institutions as choice architects, advice for students, and more: piped.video/watch?v=Owufv966… #Uchicago
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Recent research that centers the cost of slavery on enslaved people reveals that emancipation led to the single greatest annual increase in aggregate economic surplus, by far, in American history.
From @ChicagoBooth's @Rick__Hornbeck & @TrevonDLogan:
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RELEASE: As policy to address COVID-19 continues to evolve, BFI has compiled a list of economic facts developed by @UChicago economic scholars.
View the full list below and stay tuned for updates and additions as research progresses.
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NEW: Algorithmic audits of Facebook in the US and India find sizeable bias in the News Feed algorithm, e.g., whites are less likely shown Black friends’ posts, and Muslims are less likely shown Hindu friends’ posts.
From @AmandaYAgan, Diag Davenport, @profjensludwig, @m_sendhil:
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New working paper, "Climate Change Economics over Time and Space," from @UChi_Economics' @HansbergRossi and @klausvanieper. ow.ly/YrJ750QJo1b
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How will climate change affect economies differently across the globe?
@UChi_Economics’ @HansbergRossi and @PrincetonEcon's @jlcruzalv propose a dynamic economic assessment model that allows an estimate of the effects of climate change over periods of time and across space.
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.@Devin_G_Pope (@ChicagoBooth) uses anonymized location data from smartphones to provide a descriptive analysis of religious worship attendance in the United States. Read the research brief here: ow.ly/wmIe50RzUQW
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Research finds long-run exposure to Arab-Muslims causally decreases White Americans’ explicit & implicit prejudices, reduces support for the Muslim Ban, and increases altruism toward Arab countries.
From @UChi_Economics Leo Bursztyn, Thomas Chaney, Tarek Hassan, @aakaash_rao:
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.@HeckmanEquation's research featured in @TheEconomist: "He calculates the return on investment in high-quality birth-to-five education at between 7% and 13%." #ECE economist.com/special-report…
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Income gaps between states have stopped narrowing, while rising housing costs—fueled by stricter zoning laws—are changing who can afford to live and work in high-wage areas. Research brief from @p_ganong (@HarrisPolicy) and Daniel W. Shoag. ow.ly/Zugr50VCwM1
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Price Theory Summer Camp 2024 Applications are open! Led by UChicago economist Kevin Murphy, PTSC is an intensive summer camp created to introduce PhD students from outside the University of Chicago to price theory. Applications are due Feb. 1, 2024. More info & application:
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.@MilenaAlmagro (@ChicagoBooth) presented her research “Optimal Urban Transportation Policy: Evidence from Chicago” at today’s BFI Student Lunch Series. ow.ly/6W7050RjkxR
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Cognitive behavior therapy alone, & therapy w/ $ assistance, produce dramatic reductions in antisocial behaviors, w/ greatest impacts among high-risk men. The effects of therapy alone are smaller & more fragile.
@HarrisPolicy's @cblatts & coauthors.
ow.ly/VTGz50S8zuW
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The call for papers is open for the 2023 Women in Empirical Economics Conference!
Please submit your papers on empirical micro topics (including labor, public, dev & IO) by Feb 28, 2023. Learn more: bit.ly/3In1OQs
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In the 1800s, mills located in counties without powerful rivers were more likely to adopt steam power, driving more rapid manufacturing growth.
@UChi_Economics' @shmhsu, @ChicagoBooth's Richard Hornbeck & Anders Humlum; Martin Rotemberg
bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/res…
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A carbon tax rebated locally can, if not too large, grow an economy by concentrating economic activity in its high-productivity, non-agricultural core & by incentivizing immigration.
@UChi_Economics' @HansbergRossi, @klausvanieper, & @brunoconteleite
ow.ly/72p050S7gYE
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The economic costs of social distancing policies are easily observed, but what are the economic costs of not social distancing? Can they be measured?
@AdamConover speaks to Michael Greenstone about his work measuring the value of social distancing: apple.co/36EP8Q6
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When LA introduced school choice in parts of the district, test scores and college enrollment improved.
@ChicagoBooth's @cqcampos & Caitlin Kearns
ow.ly/eN0050QUpY5
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A $50 million commitment will establish @UChicago as the administrative home of the Weiss Fund for Research in Development Economics, established by CRI Foundation, Inc. to support research on issues affecting less-developed countries:
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New working paper, "Optimal Urban Transportation Policy: Evidence from Chicago," from @MilenaAlmagro (@ChicagoBooth), @barbieri_k_f, Juan Camilo Castillo, @NathanielHickok, and @TobiasSalz. ow.ly/BlJO50QGOfY
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Incarceration causes dips in economic activity, but limited long-run impacts. Why? Most defendants’ challenges begin before they enter prison.
From @evankrose (@uchi_economics), @andy_garin, @dkoust, @sambnorris, @Jeff_Weaver_, Carl McPherson, Matthew Pecenco, & Yotam Shem-Tov.
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FACT: 43% of US small businesses are temporarily closed. If the crisis extends beyond 4 months, many firms do not expect to remain viable.
A new survey shows US small businesses are financially fragile and fear a long recession.
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Calling all PhD students! BFI's Price Theory Summer Camp 2022 is now accepting applications.
The camp, organized by @ChicagoBooth's Kevin Murphy, invites students to @UChicago to learn about the application of basic economic tools to problems.
🗓July 10-14, 2022
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Congratulations to our director, @ChicagoBooth's Erik Hurst, on his election to the @americanacad!
Founded during the revolution in 1780, the Academy's membership includes such visionaries as Ben Franklin, Maria Mitchell, Charles Darwin, @johnlegend, & @george_cl_0ff.
👏👏
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Today, @UChicago Voltage Scholars joined the Expanding Diversity in Economics cohort for a special morning session from @UChi_Econoomics’ @Econ_4_Everyone!
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