#Israel:
- One missile
- Destroyed Iranian consulate
- killed 11 incl. B. General/head of
#IRGC in
#Lebanon &
#Syria, the only member of
#Hezbollah S.C+ His deputy
#Iran:
- >170 drones + >30 cruise missiles + >120 ballistic missiles
- Time, place, & trajectory known for the
#US, Israel, & regional countries
- 99% of those were intercepted outside Israel
- One
#Arab Bedouin injured/killed
- Zero
#Israeli casualties (so far)
- Very minor damage to a base in the desert (possibly allowed to be happen)
YOU TELL ME
🇮🇷🇮🇱 The most expensive show is a Win - Win for Iran & Israel.
Iran serves its internal audience + buys fans+ builds its regional influence & legitimacy following a decade of massacring Syrians & Iraqis
Israel gets global attention & western pledges to protect it from foreign threat
Palestinians continue to die yet with less attention to them
The attack embarrasses the Arab regimes & put more pressure on them & further undermine whatever source of legitimacy they have (if they have any).
The situation in Jordan, in particular, is going to be very tricky following what happened today, & this might change the whole regional dynamics at certain point.
As for Iran, this is a very well prepared, well designed, & well executed show designed to be easily intercepted & not cause any serious harm from military point of view.
It is well communicated to the meant parties especially to the US & Israel to avoid misunderstanding & turn into serious catastrophe.
Now, there is a wild card here. As we always said, despite rational calculations things can go out of control. Currently, there is one big fat elephant running in a Chinese shop. Netanyahu should be stopped at this point or he is going to definitely drag the US to a regional war as discussed in earlier X.
Having said this, I assert -like I did many time after Oct. 7- that Iran is preparing itself for a potential face off with the US over its nuclear program following the US coming elections. The Israeli war provided it with unique opportunity to test for the first time ever coordinated attacks using all it proxies from a point of strength and with minimum cost. Now, this show-attack will help Tehran assess how Israel is responding in such case and will highlight vulnerabilities....Which will be provide very useful insights for the potential upcoming stad off or provide Iran with the necessary cards to wing a new nuclear deal over negotiation table.