Folks, the spotlight has been fun reporting on the FTX estate's solbags, a role I somehow filled by default, due to the lack of credible information. Here I will take my leave from this job. This will be my last post on the topic, as I find this chapter is coming to a close.
From the various stake/withdraw authorities I uncovered, the FTX estate's unlocked token supply is nearly exhausted (~338k in unlocked stake accounts).
Beware that these coins are now out in the wild, and it is highly likely that there is substantial reserves on exchanges (Coinbase and Binance), or with trading desks. And there are still some LSTs they have to get through, too (several 100k mSOL and jSOL). So, as always, this is not financial advice; I'm not responsible for your trading activities.
In all, though, the estate has moved a metric shit ton of coin. Galaxy seems to have done a good job of preventing adverse market effects (RIP shorts). Estimates on CT were all over the place, but by my original calcs, the stake accounts started at 62M SOL, now down to 42M total. About 20M has moved (less what hasn't been sold yet), and $100M's recovered for FTX claimants.
The effect on decentralization is mixed. The Alameda private validators were shut down, however, to their credit, their largest stake key EhYX...Mtxx had actually staked coins at nearly every voting node, which is now in decline. With changes proposed to SFDP, too, it will be interesting to see how this evolves. I still believe stake pools have a big role to play in maintaining a wide and healthy validator set, and protecting the Nakamoto coefficient (which will be 100% necessary).
Going forward, it may be helpful to think of the the total locked stake's [roughly] linear unlocks as an increase in the total inflation rate. Til Feb 2025 unlock, inflation will actually exceed the pace of unlocks by more than 2:1. 5.62% + 2.36% = 8% (very crude numbers here)
From hereon, I urge you to use the many tools available to you, and learn to read the chain for yourself, call APIs, and dig into the data. The universe of Solana data is vast, and there is alpha in it, if you can learn where to look. Tools and communities around products like @heliuslabs,
@solanafm, and
@flipsidecrypto have been instrumental in my growth as a chainsplainer. For my part, I've done my best to present data in an accessible way, and will continue to make it available on
gelato.sh.
Thanks for everything.