JUST IN: US recession odds back on the rise this week. 40% chance.

The prediction market wars are heating up. Kalshi recently raised $185M at a $2B valuation from Paradigm, while Polymarket is reportedly raising $200M at a $1B valuation from Founders Fund. Both target the same market with completely different strategies. Kalshi charges per-trade transaction fees and market-maker spreads that generate exponential revenue as volume grows. Their CFTC license means mandatory KYC and per-market approval, blocking sensitive topics but ensuring US compliance. The federal court victory that allowed political betting opened doors to Robinhood and WeBull integrations, reaching over 200 million retail traders.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Meanwhile, Polymarket embraces decentralization by building on Polygon, charging zero fees, and enabling permissionless prediction market creation. Despite processing $3.6 billion in election bets, Polymarket generates no revenue, betting that distribution and network effects matter more than immediate monetization. Polymarket was banned from the US after paying a $1.4M CFTC fine, but is clawing its way back into the US market by acquiring an exchange and partnering with X and Perplexity for data integration. Both companies face challenges that will determine who captures this market. Kalshi needs international expansion to grow beyond US regulatory constraints, while Polymarket needs to generate revenue and achieve legal clarity to justify its billion-dollar valuation. The entire sector depends on whether regulators treat prediction markets as legitimate financial instruments or gambling, and whether institutional traders or retail speculators drive adoption.

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Today’s post will be about what ticker the @Polymarket token should have to get a marketing boost. In my opinion, the ideal ticker is $PM, which perfectly aligns with the name PolyMarket and Prediction Markets (PM). Below, I’ll briefly explain why. With such a ticker, which not only perfectly matches the project’s category and name but also gains free marketing from KOLs or people who often use the PM abbreviation when writing about prediction markets, even those discussing projects other than Polymarket use the PM shortcut, creating organic, unconscious, free marketing for Polymarket Check out what comes up when you type 'POLY' into @coingecko, for example it’s probably not a good idea for a ticker. I must note that I don’t even know if a token will be created or if it already has a set ticker. I’m just sharing an idea for @shayne_coplan team, maybe they’ll consider it and like my suggestion. Or perhaps they’ve already thought it through. Polymarket is end game.

The cultural relevance and brand recognition of Polymarket is something that cannot be faked

[ ZOOMER ] FORMER POLYMARKET AND KALSHI TEAM RAISE $15M FROM UNION SQUARE AND COINBASE TO BUILD AN ONCHAIN, PERMISSIONLESS, AND REGULATED PREDICTION MARKET: BLOCKWORKS

1. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt was recently asked what jobs might look like in the future. His answer was jarring: 2. "Imagine if your purpose in life is to figure out what's going on. And to be successful, just figuring that out is sufficient because once you figure that out, everything else is taken care of for you." 3. It perfectly captures why the best investors consistently outperform: they have superior mental maps of how the world actually works 4. As technology accelerates and the world becomes more complex, the ability to accurately "figure out what's going on" becomes exponentially more valuable 5. Investing forces you to constantly test and refine your mental maps. You get brutal, immediate feedback on whether your understanding matches reality 6. You have to fight your instincts; master FOMO, greed, and fear. Your hit rate either improves over time or it doesn't. The market doesn't lie 7. This creates a powerful feedback loop: make prediction → get result → update mental map → repeat 8. The beautiful part? Once you develop this skill of recognizing when your mental maps aren't mapping, it transfers everywhere 9. Relationships. Health. Career decisions. Parenting. The same pattern applies: test your assumptions, get feedback, adjust 10. In a world where change is going parabolic, your competitive advantage isn't what you know, it's how quickly you can update what you think you know 11. The game is simple: build better maps, then use them to navigate the chaos

Polymarket just closed another month with over $1B in volume - four straight months general consensus was that post-Election volume would collapse into irrelevance prediction markets supercycle

We’re thrilled to share some more updates and sneak as we move closer to mainnet, rolled out to make your experience on our platform even better! Here’s what we’ve been brewing: - Prediction Market Comparison Aggregator: Checkout the “related markets” section in the UI snippet. We’ve integrated real-time data from top prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi on related markets. Now you can compare odds, trading volume, and market sentiment side-by-side, all in one place. We built this to give you a clear, comprehensive view of trends so you can craft smarter prediction strategies with confidence. - Related News Integration: We’re bringing the news to you! Our platform now pulls real-time updates from trusted sources, tailored to each prediction. With AI-driven filtering, we’re ensuring you get only the most relevant, high-quality articles. We’ve added a dedicated news widget so you can stay informed and make decisions with the latest insights at your fingertips. - Community-led Prediction Trading: We’ve added a vibrant comment section to spark user interaction and bring our community closer together! You can now log in seamlessly using X, Facebook, Google, or email—your choice! We made it easy for you to share insights, dive into discussions, and fuel community-driven predictions that make every moment more engaging. - Automated Settlement Validation: Our LLM Oracle listens every market user creates to evaluate it’s prediction criteria in just 30 seconds! It checks for clarity, measurability, and feasibility right when you create a prediction. If something’s off, we’ll instantly cancel the prediction, refund your funds, and provide clear feedback to help you nail your next submission. We did this to keep things fair, fast, and user-friendly! We are excited to share more information of our new platform soon! Stay tuned

this is how UMA whales manipulate @Polymarket PMs through a discord channel they coordinate in after it got shared around, they hid the usernames as seen in image 2 literally criminal, at this point, if Polymarket continues to work with UMA, they are complicit

prediction markets are the only markets in the world not overrun by quant desks + the house edge your friend betting on "what MrBeast says in his next video" doesn't need to worry about outcompeting a quant desk you can generate your own alpha and win

prediction markets let you monetize ultra niche knowledge in two ways: - by betting on outcomes (as this great article explains) - and more interestingly imo, by creating the markets yourself because you know your niche better than anyone and can spin up markets others will want to trade on the first PM project to truly go allin on user generated markets will be insanely hard to dethrone

Today is the best time for me to embrace the Vision and Culture of those who’ve been pioneering history’s biggest Decentralized Truth Machine. For the Culture. Hello, @Polymarket ☀️

I’ve been spending more time on @trylimitless lately, and it honestly feels like how prediction markets should work. I've really enjoyed the focus they're putting on short-term financial markets. I've been trading $BTC hourly markets there and tbh it's super addictive and fun. The markets resolve automatically instantly after the market expires by a decentralized oracle that you can actually rely on. You DON'T have to wait for hours or days for your payout It has quietly become the fastest-growing prediction market on @base with over $270M+ traded. And now there’s even more reason to go hard: Limitless has launched its Mindshare Leaderboard on @wallchain_xyz & allocated 0.25% of its supply to reward top voices in its community: - Just talk about @trylimitless - Climb the ranks - Get your share of the reward I’m fully in and aiming for the top spot! Let’s see where this goes. One of the few platforms actually shipping week after week

The beauty of prediction markets is how it lets you trade different narratives but which platforms are best for each narrative? Well, here’s a arrangement to help you decide Sports, → @sportfun → @MyriadMarkets → @Kalshi → @Polymarket → @ForkastGG → @trylimitless → @BuzzingApp → @polldotfun Politics & Geopolitics, → @Polymarket → @MyriadMarkets → @Kalshi → @Truemarketsorg → @polldotfun Weather, → @Polymarket → @Kalshi → @xomarket Startup Valuations, → @joinearlybird → @polldotfun → @xomarket Price Action, → @MyriadMarkets → @noise_xyz → @polldotfun → @Polymarket → @Truemarketsorg Entertainment & Media, →@MyriadMarkets → @Polymarket → @Truemarketsorg → @trylimitless → @polldotfun Science & Technology, → @MyriadMarkets → @Polymarket → @polldotfun → @trylimitless → @Truemarketsorg → @xomarket Economics, → @MyriadMarkets → @Polymarket → @Kalshi Social, → @MyriadMarkets → @noise_xyz → @Polymarket → @polldotfun → @xomarket → @Kalshi Health, → @Polymarket → @Truemarketsorg → @Kalshi Creating your own market, → @polldotfun → @xomarket → @predictandpump Ofc there are more names I didn’t add to this list but this should be enough as a start for anyone looking to trade within these narratives.

what caused this sudden rise in prediction markets meta in recent weeks? accounts mentioning "prediction markets" the most on ct in the last 30d: 1/ @j0hnwang 2/ @thenarrator 3/ @bryantheden 4/ @0xNairolf 5/ @Carlitoswa_y 6/ @MarcHochstein 7/ @howdymerry 8/ @NTmoney 9/ @farokh 10/ @zen_llama 11/ @divine_economy

prediction markets mindshare has 4x in august alone parabolic

🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will nothing happen this month?

Polymarket has acquired QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. This paves the way for us to welcome American traders again. I've waited a long time to say this: Polymarket is coming home 🇺🇸🦅

Pleased to announce that my fund @1789capital has invested in @Polymarket and that I will be joining the team as a Strategic Advisor. Prediction markets have completely changed the way people follow the news. I'm proud to support the industry and look forward to helping Polymarket grow!

biggest unlock in prediction markets? you don’t need to be right to win you just need to be directionally accurate a market move from 5% to 10% is a 2x stop asking “will this happen?” start asking “will people think this is more likely to happen?”

Liquidity isn’t the issue for Prediction Market. It’s a problem for the entire market.

BREAKING: Astronomer CEO offers his resignation Nearly $2 million has been traded on his employment

literally the most bullish chart in crypto Polymarket's TVL will be orders of magnitude higher next year up only

We’re launching the first US futures that give exposure to the top US tech stocks and crypto at the same time. We'll launch more products like this as part of the everything exchange. Coming on September 22.

Earn 4% interest on cash and open positions, on every market! In just 9 months, we’ve already paid millions to traders. Holding JD Vance to win in 2028? 4% a year Holding the Lions to win it all? 4% a year Holding Tesla deliveries? 4% a year Holding cash? 4% a year