If you liked today's reversal on my "1000 likes" threshold, then hit the like button below. If I get more than 5000 likes to this tweet by Monday, I am going to crush entire markets across the globe next week. It will be like one of those bear orgies you have seen back in March.

5K likes by the market close, I give my 2023 predictions for markets , geopolitics and some other things

Elon Musk used to talk about how he slept in the office and you all admired his dedication. Now you know what he really meant

If I get 10K likes to this tweet by memorial day weekend, I will rain down an ungodly firestorm upon markets, I will mutilate every stock with 4 letters, I will massacre entire robinhood top list, I will leave no unturned stone, I will f** them all up!

Turn up the volume ...

You will remember tonight as a good market low , the first one like Bear Stearn belly up day back in March 2008 (I remember it was a beautiful Sunday in NYC sitting in a cafe, immediately covered my shorts at the market over the phone) We get 7 to 13% rally from here over the next 5 to 10 trading days , preferably higher to suck in the dip buying fuckers again, ohhh Trump will fold along the way , mark my words on this, my bearish rants will once again be less liked by masses then ...fintweet will feel safe again, thinking tariff thing is all priced in but in reality this was never about tariffs in the first place...

Thank God , at least this long term support is holding $SPX

Traders who never seen a bear market before are learning to trade in a bear market

Once or twice a decade, a trader / investor has a chance to witness a life changing market move... like 2001-2002 2008-2009 , 2020 etc 2008 changed mine. We are about to see another one within weeks

Trump's new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "We are going to decide whether we are going to grow our way out of this debt burden, and I think we can, through deregulation, energy independence & dominance in the US, and a growth mindset. I feel very strongly that this is the last chance to grow ourselves out of this." Sounds great for future America but not for risk assets overall... Say bye bye to deficit and gov spending that created this decades long enormous bubble. There will be a transition period which may take year(s) and risk assets will suffer greatly. Undoing decades long policy mistakes will have a price. And remember outliers revert with velocity. Did market know what was coming ? I absolutely think so. Otherwise why growth stocks would suffer since Trump's lead in polls. You see, Bessent talks about bringing growth back but ironically growth stocks are underperforming. Why? Because the market knows that without deficit spending, bubble will burst. And as always hot money / smart money is now leaving high beta growth names before major market turn. They always lead. While I have doubts that Trump administration and new Treasury Secretary do as they say, if they do, it will be great for the future America but during the transition period, the bubble will burst with velocity

Just so you know, CNBC is now running ads that claim Melvin closed its short position. Why would you spend money to convince public that Melvin closed its short position. If its closed, good for them. Why are they running ads

if I dont get more than 1000 likes to this tweet by midnight, I will call Karaken back and ES will skyrocket to the highs

I can see it from 1000s miles away.... This is my favorite pattern I learned during tech burst 23 years ago .... SP500 is forming a right shoulder -ish pattern that is similar to what $ARKK completed in late 2021 ... Its projected target is 2500 with a potential to retrace all the way to 1300, over the next 12 to 24 months because the count-down begins from the breakdown point . There is nothing FED can do about it unless it goes full Weimar. I remain bearish since 4200

They are moving $30 trillion market with a few billion. Buying a few billion worth of near term calls, forcing dealers to buy stocks and index futures to hedge. Spread between bid/ask widens because of this massive one sided option market therefore VIX & VVIX spike

Tomorrow fintwit will graduate from nuclear physics

< So, what you're telling me, is that the music is about to stop, and we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism. >

A reminder of our beautiful justice and monetary system.

ES keeps printing lowest volume days of the year, back to back... insane crater coming... Carvana type crater, i mean a nasty bidless shit

Spread is now lower than minus 1%, breaking below the previous record low printed before dotcom crash . 2 options, 1- FED will soon start cutting rates and start an episode of hyperinflation, effectively ending the united states of America as we know it... Once hyperinflation gets going, no turning back. No known country ever defeated hyperinflation before utter and complete destruction of society took place 2- Keeps the rates high, crash the stock market, let the incompetent businesses wipe out, restart the cycle, like FED used to do before. Danger: Covid episode showed that now we have so many treacherous man and women in high places that they can choose the option #1 for a short term personal gain in exchange of a life time public pain

There has been a tectonic shift in market structure during the last few days, signaling a different type of bear market underway . This started in the middle of opex week last week and intensified last couple of days. If my early observations are correct, we are entering a proper bear market first time in 14 years, complete transition may still last weeks. $DJT

if I reach 55K by next week , I will give you one last call that can be life-changing . Sunday midnight, I will lock this account and only those inside will read it. That will be my jubilee

There are 3 sure things in life, taxes, death and Kraken !

How you liked post-holiday rally so far? Feels good? Like this tweet if it does. I will see what I can do.

Beautiful bear market rally. I turned bearish at SPX 4200 and I remain bearish. We are in the slow section of the major leg to 3200 imo... Acceleration comes below 3900

If the central banks / governments choose to use their last dimes to delay the inevitable by saving incompetent garbage now, we may get a narrow-breadth rally with the help of 4 big tech stocks (MSFT AAPL GOOGL AMZN) for a week or two then the market will plunge into the oblivion , faster than FED can call an emergency meeting again. I turned bearish @ SPX 4200 for intermediate term in early Feb , I remain the biggest bear. Nothing can stop this freight train now #SiliconVallyBank #CreditSuisse

I have been talking about 70s stagflation for over a year now. It is finally here, even Crude oil is following the exact same script, boom and bust cycle. People need to study 70s market to survive. This is the biggest wealth transfer event in 2 decades.

I believe tomorrows CPI will be manufactured to prevent a market crash , and it will be silently revised weeks later like they did with the last few CPI numbers. Any bad number may trigger a delta hedging meltdown event into quadruple OPEX, wiping out nearly all vol funds across the globe. Still we got my Vol spike in March as VIX rallied 67% from March low. I was expecting VIX to test 50-55 range minimum. So far high is 31

Remember this during the next few months: In bear markets , -good news are bad news, -bad news are bad news, -no news are bad news -very bad news when the market is very oversold are good news

The most expensive part of an electric car is its battery, which lasts about 8 years and costs about $20k to replace. Essentially a 30K to 40K electric car has a life expectancy of 8 to 10 years while a Toyota 4Runner can go 20 to 40 years. Get a fucking real car

No bottom until VIX spikes like a geyser

Shorting is a process, you use pops to add... Because tops are process, bottoms are events. NQ is near 10 month high, I am up over 25% on my TSLA short already... Weak stocks lead, strong stocks lag on on the downside. Today I started to short indices This is the way...

Ok people, time to mow the yard, shorting ES above 3060 , Expect the markets to be crushed in a few days. Get out of my way or you shall be perished.

Last 10 months was just a warm-up, a small 1300 SPX points pullback.... true bear market is about to start these days $SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ

It is one of life’s mysteries that i called every major and minor lows and highs of this once in a life time bear market , giving away free cash in the form of pure actionable alpha and still has less than a million follower. Fuck it

No bull market started with FED cutting rates into a stagflation but many brutal bear markets did start soon after rate cuts began

Soon after the quad-expiration, there is going to be a 3-sigma or 4-sigma move and it will start with a fake out maximizing the causalities. It will start at the exact time you think this tweet is obsolete.

this summer, I became a big believer that investing / trading from remote places with minimal technology exposure & away from all the bullshit in fintwit and media is enormously advantageous. Big money is made in big moves and big picture becomes clearer if u keep away from noise

Just for the record I am no longer bearish for short term I called for a bear market at 6150 and shorted ES there Today , 1000 point later I am flat, I see a bear market rally coming Fortunes are made and lost, its going to get more volatile after a brief april rally

This is a 10 year daily chart of $INSAX vs $SPX INSAX is a fund that replicates insider buying Up until mid-2021, the fund's performance had been slightly better than SPX or the same Starting in mid-2021, INSAX decoupled from SPX and began to crater. Today it is at Covid lows

People think 2022 was a bear market. It was more like a controlled pullback or stage 1 or whatever you call it but not a true bear environment.

Remember this term : "Trump Top" ...

Doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers who go out and fight this war on the front lines every single day, risking their own life and everything they have are the true heroic people we should never forget.

You should not be surprised if SP500 plunges 10% over the next few days , right now 4260

Never forget this. This video basically summarizes last 20 year's monetary policy in 30 sec. It is the root cause for almost all evil you are seeing right now, from social unrest to income inequality to all sort of degeneration.

This is a type of bear market where; Everyone bearish but collectively keeps calling a bottom and no long term holder sells share, never capitulates Most of Zillow is still full of flippers trying to make 100% profit in a year while m. rates at 8% and no apparent buyers left

Chatbots are not AIs, they do not posses any intelligence whatsoever, they are recursive algorithms with data parsing and classifying abilities. For example you can ask ChatGPT a simple arithmetic question like 2x2. It will first answer you 4. Then if you tell it the answer should be 5, it will answer you 5 next time you ask. Try it. This is because it is dumb like a brick, it just recursively classifies inputs you provide. I trained artificial neural networks with various typologies and learning algorithms in my PhD for military applications like target detection and recognition from 3d segmented images. Its the same thing, what they do is not true learning but classification of inputs and patterns What this means for AI hype is, this will fade away sooner than crypto orgy.

Obesity will significantly decline in America in coming months, Few …

Megacap tech rally started as I expected... Meanwhile 5 months of QT is gone in one week. Wont last long. What comes after this will be quite unpleasant , so I am using the rally to position accordingly.

SPX is at 2600, that is about 700 points higher than where it will be in a few weeks.

If you gave me 5K likes last weekend, I would take SP500 to 2550 this week. For 2K likes, you got 150+ handles downside. I will ask next week again, make sure you do your best. It is up to you if you want to be rich.

Trading the markets from distance in silence since the beginning of the summer. This has been best year of my career so far but it is saddening to watch the greatest country in the world taken down by these unelected incompetent clowns at FED. Meltdown will likely climax this Oct

Turned bearish at 4800 at the begging of the year Turned bullish at 4130 for a corrective rally on Mar 16 Turning bearish here If you disagree, it is ok but dont expect me to take you serious UNLESS your track record is at least half of what I have

SP500 erased one month's gain in one hour without any selling exhaustion sign whatsoever...

VIX Dec calls are free, could be the next x100 trade

<BREAKING: U.S. Federal and state officials are assessing possible 'market manipulation' regarding banking shares, per Reuters citing a source.> These buffoons just cant let it go. Let me remind you one thing: Moaning , whining and even banning short selling wont work. On Sep 19, 2008, SEC banned shorting banks. IWM briefly hit all time high at the open that morning , this gave a priceless opportunity for multi-trillion funds to unload their bags that day, sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008… In the following days, SP500 got completely annihilated beyond comprehension

As a cycle bear, my opinion on SIVB situation is completely different from many out there. There is a baseless fear mongering going on, I think it will be a non event and unfortunately the market will use it to launch another short squeeze rally later Today's banking sector is quite different than 2008, there is no systemic risk whatsoever As I mentioned in my "2023 list of things to watch", CLOs are the ones to watch, probably later this year

If this continues, there will be a spike in suicide rate across the globe.

FED now buys corporate debt. If FED worked like this in 2000 and 2008, Enron, Worldcom Lehman & Bear would still be around cooking books today. Ken Lay, Maddoff, Waksal, Kozlowski and many others would be running wild, fucking people out of money. Too bad MMT was invented so late

Last week when SPX closed at 4025, I said the market would take a huge dump this week, SPX cratered over 200 handles this week. The sell off was somewhat controlled and muted. Dip buyers are still active. There is absolutely no capitulation. Gonna get a lot uglier than I thought

My work suggests SPX is headed over 4300+ over the next 6 to 10 weeks, I see this as a buying opportunity, right now 3900

Stock speculation (0DTE …etc) and Real estate speculation are now worse than 2021. Real inflation is over 15%. Crypto morons are back. SPX 4200 of 2023 is like SPX 6000 of 2021. Everything-bubble is getting worse despite 5% Fed rates. 1 year of QT and Fed hikes didn’t do a thing. When this bubble really bursts, it will be worse than your wildest imagination.

I swing-trade, hold for few days to few weeks, long &short My journey for the last 6 months: -Bought Oct 2021 low at 4260, Sold 4622 Nov 2 -Short NQ at 16500 in early Jan 2022 -Turned short term bullish at 4135 on Mar 16 -Began to turn bearish on March 25 Below are the proofs

Any f..ing moment sweetheart

How many of you ever seen banks up over 10% and NDX down 2%. That only happened at major market tops , extremely rare. Happened at 2008 top, 2000 top

SP500 is down 360 handles in 11 days, VIX below 30, EPC is 0.59. There is absolutely no fear at all. All you hear is bottom bottom bottom. This type of extended but steady selling usually ends with a violent waterfall or selling climax

Inverted NDX chart. Imagine this is a stock and everybody is shorting it here.

nice bear market rally which is over... strap your seat-belts, you are going for a wild ride ... back to full short everything...

Covid-19 must be the most intelligent virus ever, it killed no politician, policy maker , FED member or any other influential politician or economist. Strange.

If you think 1300 SPX point loss was a bear market bottom, just wait until Nasdaq pulls a Cathie Wood on you... Entire decade-long Nasdaq parabola will eventually be erased before you see a real bottom

1000 likes will make you a lot of money, 2000 likes will literally make you rich. No fucking kidding. For 2000 likes, Kraken will tear Bulls a new ass

Unfortunately , this is still an infant geyser, Slo mo train wreck . I am sorry to say this and I really dont want to look like cheer-leading it (I know what some of you long term bulls think of me now) but I hope I saved a few good souls in recent weeks.

MOVE index (Volatility for Treasuries) at the decade high, diverging from $VIX. MOVE usually leads VIX A clear break below 3600 can trigger a Vol event #volmagedon #octofist

Let me tell you something about $TSLA if you are into sword catching Only way $TSLA can bounce is through exhaustion. It is in a selling climax at the moment but no exhaustion yet. My ideal scenario is, a +500M volume day followed by a massive gap down.

first slowly then all all of a sudden, starting next week ...

What doesnt kill you makes you stronger. With fresh antibodies in my blood and a very angry hungry Kraken , ready to kick some ass next week

I watched tape for an hour today, there is something that reminds me Feb 20. Remember that day in Feb when ES dived 50 handles intraday then came back quickly and I turned full bearish after the close? I said it was "a bidless market" behavior? Today felt similar.

The more I express my bullish outlook for ST/IT bear market rally, the more rapidly I am losing followers. Which is all fine. This is coming from the person who called the bull market top to the day on Dec 28 and stayed bearish most of the time, they must think I lost my marbles

So long NYC. Moved in 1998 to get my PhD while working as a software eng, I was only 20. Opened my first firm in 2004. Traded through 3 bubbles 3 bear markets, raised a family. 23 years like a movie. Aloha

All bulls markets of the last two decades started with this breadth trust which comes no later than 3 months after the low Its been 8 long months since Oct 2022 low, nothing happened. In fact the recent push from March 2023 low came on declining breadth. $SPX $SPY

CPI must literally crash for FED to bend over again ... even after FED bends over, SPX will go down for months as it is now not only about inflation but earnings too Therefore any possible rally on slight changes in inflation will not last

I have been bullish since ES 3800. After 350 handles at 4160, I am no longer bullish, in fact I initiated some shorts on individual junk stocks last Friday. While SPX may stay above 4K until Feb CPI, I don't see much upside from here.

I am thinking about releasing Kraken on Jay Powell while he speaks on live TV this week. What do you say ?

My first bear market was dotcom burst. I paid huge tuition to learn invaluable lessons those years. Got wiped out two times even after being a bear in a bear market. My 2nd was 2008 GFC, I shined. It changed my life, my career and everything else related

Two weeks ago under 3800, SPX looked ugly and I was bullish. The index is now breaking out to the upside which is bullish for ST. Once the rally is over in a few weeks/days, the bear market should resume.

If ES sinks below 3416 in RTH session tomorrow, it will trigger a delta hedging melt down with dealer algorithms kick in full force. The exact same shit you have seen on the upside, but opposite direction. Of course this one will be much faster as fear is stronger than greed

Today was the lightest volume of the year, tick tock ...

This is just just a powerfull bear market rally on low volume and weak breadth.... once the pattern breaks, it will be a bidless beast

There is only one stock left that is holding the entire market, that is why a few WS firms upgraded it today ( to unload on retail because they know whats coming next) its name is AAPL. Once this stock is gone, house of cards will collapse. Watch it closely

As soon as SPX down 1%, Bill “ Bail me out” Ackman whining again Remember this slimy PoS bought regional banks after the initial rout in late March He wants FED to cut rates now but he never questions why banks still offer low rates for customer deposits which is the main reason for withdrawals

The summer rally which I called at 3640 was about 700 handles From low 4300 where I called a ST top to today's low, was exactly 450 handles drop Now NYSE McO -101, % of SPX stocks <20DMA below 5% Things are about to get volatile next few days then bear market rally again

2 months ago, I originally projected that we would have an intermediate term low in October and a multi-week rally into the new year. Today's rally , while it looks bullish at the moment, can completely change this scenario because I don't like the way the low was printed today

I am lowering my 18 month target for $TSLA from $17 to $13