Stocks. Most of them rekt.
San Francisco, CA
- Tweets 21,861
- Following 773
- Followers 19,422
- Likes 87,611
Full disclosure: I did not outperform the market this year. Feel free to smash that unfollow button.
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Wow I had never bothered to actually look at SNAP's financials but going ex-growth and losing $1.3B on $4.6B of revenue is honestly a bit impressive.
Truly difficult for me to think of any businesses with that much revenue and worse unit economics?
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Me: huh GOOG results look fine but margins were a little weak I wonder why oh right they hired 13k new employees for absolutely no reason at all
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Remember when we all said that the index can't go down too much because megacap tech is like the whole index and it's cheap so it can't re-rate -30% and then $FB released the worst quarter in the history of capitalism right after that?
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It's only value investing if it comes from the Omaha region of France, otherwise it's just sparkling underperformance.
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Great results from $GOOG. It's a real shame because it's so hard to own at an implied valuation of *checks notes* less than 20x forward core earnings.
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I know there are other expenses, but what an absolutely elite of the word "just" in this sentence. 14/10 effort.
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Wow how can we possibly believe in efficient markets when $AMZN is only up 10% after stock split news?!!!? Do people not understand just how much more the company is worth now?!!?!?
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I will not lie, sometimes I want to just burn it all down, set my discount rate to 8%, own like 30 boomer stocks equal weight, and be content getting paid and watching my earnings go up like 3% / year.
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Spending all of your very substantial FCF on buybacks and your share count doesn't go down
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I always love it when people are like "oh if you miss the 14 best days in the market you don't make any money" meanwhile the 14 best days in the market are always during the time when SPY is getting yeeted to the 5th circle of hell
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Really liked this story from Munger. Had never heard it before.
Many tempted by FIRE-type thinking. If you're hard working, industrious, and lucky enough to make some money, good to remember you might be called on to help your family out. Pays to answer that call.
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I just went through the major positions in $BRK's equity portfolio and I estimate they've lost ~$70bb YTD. Given deferred taxes eating up some of that and probably ~$6bb in earnings elsewhere, current book value would be ~$154.
Updated P/B would be ~1.1x with the stock at $168.
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Whenever someone asks me why I don't have a Facebook or Instagram account I like to wisely reply "oh yes I just don't need that distraction in my life" but fail to mention that I spend 17.3 hours per day on twitter.
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I don't know about you all, but I'm looking forward to buying a bunch of stocks -30% from here in about 5 months.
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bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
And they say they don't ring a bell at the top
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Tried to warn you guys
OK I have done 0 work on $PLTR but doesn't $40bb for some evil company run by a bond villain in cahoots with the US government to spy on us all seem obviously too cheap?
Like, will we not look back on this in 20 years and think yes of course this company is worth $3 trillion?
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OK I have done 0 work on $PLTR but doesn't $40bb for some evil company run by a bond villain in cahoots with the US government to spy on us all seem obviously too cheap?
Like, will we not look back on this in 20 years and think yes of course this company is worth $3 trillion?
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"Bear Market" is an odd way to spell "Mismanagement"
wsj.com/articles/bear-market…
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Am I the only $BRK.B shareholder a little annoyed about reading all the great investments Weschler and Combs have made personally while watching them underperform the index with the money they handle at Berkshire?
Ted Weschler buying 6% of Dillard's back in October 2020 is an all-time great trade.
Stock up ~450% in a year.
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This is great from @scuttleblurb.
I wish I could get this seared into my brain. Many of the mistakes I've made historically have been doing exactly this.
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(1/n) This poll was mostly a joke but is also important. Both AWS and $AMZN retail have railroad-type characteristics - huge physical infrastructure, irreplaceable assets, logistical complexity, pricing power, etc.
Thinking of retail as a rr helps me think through its value...
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Okay everyone, here's my first post on Substack. How I stopped buying quality and remembered how to lose all my money in levered shitcos again.
concentratedcompounding.subs…
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Almost every single one of the compounders everyone yearns after and complains about not owning were cheap enough for anyone doing napkin math to buy at some point in the last 10 years
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Why don't more people own the Nordic serial acquirers? Addtech, Lagercrantz, Lifco, and Indutrade?
They seem like great companies and the valuations have been fairly reasonable over time.
Would love to read any write-ups, reports, etc. you all think are good. Couple below.
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Can someone help me with my $TCEHY DCF? It's spitting out a really weird number for intrinsic value.
Tyvmia.
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OK so maybe I'm late to the party here but Tesla's market cap is ~$100bb bigger than Berkshire's.
I don't think I've seen anything in the markets so unbelievable on such a big scale. Plenty of silly things that are small. I can't remember anything like this.
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After a lot of thought, inner reflection, and hard work, I've finally distilled my investment philosophy into a single document.
Please let me know if you have any thoughts, questions, or feedback.
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Given the new superconductor news, I’m so glad I never wasted my time to figure out what a semiconductor is
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Tfw the US Government tells you there's a monopoly in an industry vital to national security
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Why is it that whenever I buy something because I think the net present value of the future cash flows is higher than the current price it always turns out to be a 0 and whenever I just buy on vibes I hit like mid-teens plus IRRs
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(1/n) Just posted my annual letter. Goal is to clearly explain my strategy and what happened during the year in a way that's accessible to clients who aren't finance savvy.
concentratedcompounding.subs…
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concentratedcompounding.com/…
Here's my 2019 annual report. I hope you all enjoy it!
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Great Bloomberg article today on $AMZN's supply chain efforts this holiday season. Big advantage for them to continue to drive sales while many brick and mortar chains struggle with inventory availability.
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Happy "why didn't I sell all my shitcos and get YOLO long $FB at $260 two months ago?" day to everyone.
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I swear this is the gameplan of 95% of mature companies in developed markets:
1. find a small target company that's growing much faster than your own business
2. pay 2x what it's worth
3. report higher organic growth
4. hope shareholders don't notice you just incinerated capital
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Had a vision today of $AMZN at some point in the next 1-2 years with retail driving operating leverage and showing a bunch of EBIT at the same time that AWS reaccelerates and literally every hedge fund and quality LO on earth tripping over themselves to buy it.
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All the tickers mentioned in this thread: ROP, BRK, MKL, BAM, CSU.TO, ROP, DHR, Liberty Complex, NXST, OZK, POST, TDG, HEI, ITW, MIDD, NVR, XPO, ORLY WCN, AME, AXTA, NOMD, ATH, QRTEA, EQIX, INXN, TXN, BYD.UN, FSV.TO, JKHY, IAC, PATK, WSO, IDXX...
Would love to get a list going of companies that have great records by excelling in capital allocation. A modern Outsiders if you will. I found out about $ROP yesterday and should have known about it for a long time so I thought I'd open it up to you guys.
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Hold up, a BROOKFIELD guy is in charge of Canada now?!?!?! I love Canada man but y'all mfs cooked.
Remember, you’re not not allowed to ask the Prime Minister who ran Brookfield, which invests in energy, mining, real estate, infrastructure & lots of other things about his conflicts.
If you dare ask him what is in his blind trust or the conflicts of interest that arise from the assets in that trust managed by someone — somewhere — that he knew about 5 days ago — he snaps at you. Tells you to “look inside yourself”. 👀👀
I’m sure, he’ll tell you after the election.
This is totally the behaviour of someone who isn’t hiding anything. Trust him. 🙄
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Holy cow, WSJ estimating that $FRC lost $70B of deposits. I thought that if they lost ~$30B they'd have serious issues. Almost impossible to see any kind of purchase / equity infusion / stabilization with those numbers.
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Seems like we should have been able to figure this out a long time ago. Better late than never.
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$META baggies w/ no votes watching Zuck burn down the house w/ dumb cap allocation and no expense control into a recession is this cycle's version of MLP baggies w/ no votes watching Kelcy et al burn down the house w/ dumb cap allocation and no expense control into a recession.
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lol $COST still trades at 38x forward earnings? How did this happen?
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(1/10)Story on $CSU.TO’s acquisition process that I saw up close. It makes me more confident in their ability to win deals:
A friend owned ~40% of a VMS company with ~$1mm EBITDA growing ~MSD and mentioned that he wanted to sell. He potentially wanted to stay on afterwards.
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Sure sex is cool but have you ever met one of your mortal intellectual enemies in person and found out that they don't even lift?
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Just spitballing here but I feel like a policy change to suppress oil and gas supply and also increase demand would be somewhere in the range of "not dope to quite not dope" at this point in time.
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Not trying to be mean here but this has to be the best advertisement for diversification that I've ever seen
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(1/16) Thread on some stocks I like here. Obviously, please do your own research, this is not investment advice. Also, I've gotten annihilated this year, so take these with a grain of salt!
I appreciate everyone sharing ideas and wanted to put my current ideas in one place.
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Ngl it would be kinda funny if J Pow just said fuck it we're going to completely stop the bond buying program, we're setting rates at 1.5%, and $SPY was like -15%.
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Good luck to all involved as I genuinely like most of you but I simply cannot take it anymore.
Also you're very welcome for marking the generational bottom.
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I very rarely tweet anything very seriously, but I think there's a lot of young guys on here.
Don't ever talk to a woman like this. Plenty of men do this even if it's not at this truly insane scale. It's disrespectful and unfortunately much more common than you think.
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Revenue: $100,000
Back office costs: $15,000
Travel expenses: $5,000
Subscribing to all the squad's substacks: $4,561,372
Software: $3,000
Someone help me with budgeting my money management business is dying.
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If someone has a good reason that $AMZN isn't going to work over a 5 year time horizon then I would love to hear it.
Yes I know they will guide down in Q1 and that the stock will go down a lot, thank you.
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concentratedcompounding.com/…
Here's my 2020 Annual Letter. I hope you all enjoy it!
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Twitter is such a great place to meet new friends, share investing ideas, and improve as an investor.
One such friend, expressing his appreciation in the DMs:
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Taking some time to go back over some Munger stuff that I probably haven't read in almost 10 years.
It's amazing how many great nuggets there are - this is almost an aside and you realize why media and staples used to be compounders and they aren't anymore.
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Had a tough week personally. Been reflecting on some things I'm blessed with - big one is my wife and I celebrating one year of marriage a few weeks ago.
First year was a bit different than we would have expected but I wouldn't trade it for the world.
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In all seriousness, a very sincere congratulations to everyone that had a great year this year. 2020 was certainly a tough environment to navigate and there were lots of ways to lose money, so if you had a good year that's something to be proud of.
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Idk, this offer looks low for a company that *checks notes* hasn't generated any FCF net of SBC over the past six years while growing revenue a whopping *checks notes again* 13% per share over that time.
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