Not a single airplane over the entire state of Florida. #Irma

A section of the Sanibel Causeway has collapsed. It's the only way for vehicles to enter/exit Sanibel & Captiva. #Ian

Storm surge in (and around) Tampa Bay is currently higher than has ever been recorded. Some of the gauges have been around since the mid 1940s. Clearwater Beach is shattering the old record from the "storm of the century" by two feet. Bottom Line: This is the worst storm surge flooding in the Tampa Bay Area in more than 80 years.

The roof of Tropicana Field just blew off. The stadium was set up to house over 10,000 first responders.

The Tampa Bay Area is currently experiencing the worst storm surge in over 100 years & the water is still rising. Only the Tampa Bay hurricanes of 1921 & 1848 had similar surge heights. Obviously, Tampa Bay was less populated during those events. Here are a few pictures from Tampa to St. Pete. The full scope of this disaster will become more clear when the sun rises in the morning. Please stay safe.

MOST ACCURATE MODEL: I've been watching the brand new (experimental) EC-AIFS model this season. It has, hands down, outperformed legacy models. It’s an artificial intelligence deep learning model created by ECMWF. So, it is an improved version of the already powerhouse European model. ➡️ With Helene, four days out from landfall it was only 50 miles off of the eventual landfall. The GFS (American) model was 300 miles off. FORECAST: ➡️ The overnight run of the EC-AIFS model has the storm making landfall into Sarasota County. ➡️ There is still a considerable spread in the other, also reliable, models and the NHC forecast cone includes most of the Florida peninsula. BOTTOM LINE: ➡️ The EC-AIFS will likely be accurate to within 50-100 miles of its current prediction. This does include a potential direct hit to St. Petersburg/Clearwater/Tampa to the north and Fort Myers vicinity to the south. ➡️ Everyone in the Florida peninsula should be preparing for this storm. We're looking at a landfall on Wednesday. ➡️ As always, follow guidance from the NHC and local officials. Stay tuned. I'll have additional model updates/analysis and a video update after I return from church.

(#MILTON UPDATE - 4PM) Category Five Milton is one of the strongest storms to ever occur in the Gulf & is headed for the heart of Tampa Bay. This is looking more like it’s going to be the storm that Tampa Bay meteorologists have feared for decades. THIS COULD BE OUR KATRINA: ➡️ I don't really like comparing the two storms. Katrina was a unique situation with the levy break that lead to the unfortunate loss of so many lives. ➡️ But, from a meteorological standpoint, we always knew that a direct hit to New Orleans would be catastrophic. ➡️ Similarly, a major hurricane making landfall in Pinellas or Pasco County is a worst case scenario for Tampa Bay. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE WIND DIRECTION: ➡️ Winds rotate counterclockwise around a hurricane. If the storm makes landfall in Pasco or Pinellas, not only will it significantly flood Clearweater & St. Petersburg, but much of south Tampa, MacDill, & downtown Tampa may go underwater. ➡️ The water funneled into the Bay could even reverse the Hillsborough River & flood numerous areas that aren't even by the Bay. ➡️ On the other hand, a landfall in the Sarasota-Venice area would be devastating to Manatee, Sarasota, & Charlotte Co., but it would spare millions catastrophic flooding along the Bay & Gulf beaches north of the landfall. FORECAST: ➡️ As of 3pm on October 7th, just about all models have come together, suggesting that a landfall near the mouth of the Bay is likely. It is still a razor thin margin & enormously different result if the storm makes landfall north/south of the Skyway. ➡️ At landfall winds are going to be sustained around 125, gusting to 155 mph. A 150 mph wind is strong enough to take off a roof and damage exterior walls of a well built home. SURGE: ➡️ Surge will reach up to 12 ft in the areas adjacent & south of the landfall location. ➡️ It doesn't matter if the hurricane vanishes into thin air right before landfall. The water momentum has been set in motion & will result in historic surge. STORM SIZE: ➡️ Milton's wind-field is going to nearly double by the time it reaches Tampa Bay. That means a large storm surge & expansive reach. EVACUATIONS: ➡️ Please follow the NHC & local officials. In my opinion, everyone in Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, & Sarasota counties should evacuate... even if you are not by the water, the wind is going to be brutal. I'd also evacuate Polk and areas toward Orlando if you are not in an extremely well built structure. MY TONE: ➡️ I typically try to keep my message calm & low key. But, the potential devastation that this storm may cause is the reason for my concern/worry for my home -Tampa Bay. That is also why I am pushing for so many people to please evacuate. FINAL NOTE: ➡️ The models & now-casting favors a landfall in the center of Tampa Bay, but this is not written in stone. The center of the storm will make landfall Wednesday, so some slight shifting in the track is still feasible. Fort Myers up to Crystal River should be watching this very closely. ➡️ Yes, the storm is expected to weaken slightly as it approaches landfall, but it's the momentum of the water that concerns me. Don't let the forecast of a slight weakening near the coast of Florida mislead into thinking that the surge risk will be greatly diminished. Please stay safe. Let’s continue to plan for the worst & hope for the best.

NASA's Parker Solar Probe is on it's way to the sun aboard the Delta IV rocket! I took this long exposure pic from downtown St. Petersburg.

Current view of the tornado moving into downtown Orlando! THIS TORNADO IS IN THE GROUND AT 733PM. It moved into the Thornton Park area. Transformers are exploding. @NWSMelbourne

SCIENCE! 🔬🌎 Can we take a moment to appreciate this fact: ✅ A powerful hurricane is spinning just 200mi offshore of Florida. ✅ And yet, we haven't had the least bit of concern, because science told us all along that #Erin would turn north. That is the power of meteorology, satellite observations, & NWP/AI models working together. Instead of panic, we can rely on data, physics, & decades of research.🌪️📡

(UNBELIEVABLE ACCURACY) The brand new artificial intelligence model, called the EC-AIFS, is the most accurate model the world has ever seen. HOW ACCURATE? ➡️ The EC-AIFS model max error with #Milton's landfall location was only 13 miles. The average error was only about 7 miles. ➡️ Every other model in the world had a max error of over 100 miles & a much higher average error. ➡️ It predicted a landfall near Siesta Key more than five days in advance. The model knew that it wouldn't make landfall in Pinellas Co. or anywhere else in Florida. ➡️ The model has performed equally as accurate with #Helene & other storms this season. WHAT IS THIS MODEL: ➡️ This is an artificial intelligence, machine learning model created by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. ➡️ You've heard of the king-pin European model. This is the European model, but given an artificial intelligence boost. ➡️ Large companies like Google & Nvidia are excited by this model. They have received copies of the code with an opportunity to improve skill even more. THIS IS THE FUTURE: ➡️ Modelers are likely taking notice & will attempt to hop on board the A.I. weather modeling in the coming years. ➡️ Greater accuracy, most importantly, means saved lives. It also means saved money & time by focusing the greatest attention on the landfall area. MY MOTTO: ➡️ When I forecast hurricanes, nor'easters, or even just a sunny day I try my hardest to combine my experience & education to make the very best forecast. ➡️ But, there is ALWAYS room for improvement. By analyzing previous forecasts you can learn model biases, how synoptic systems behave, & trends. All of this makes you a better forecaster. WHERE CAN I ACCESS THIS MODEL? ➡️ I will always post this model, analyze other models, & most importantly examine the environment around the developing storm. The best model combined with the best current atmospheric analysis will provide superior forecasts. ➡️ Here's a web link to the EC-AIFS: bit.ly/4h2IWVS ➡️ Let's hope that we don't need this model again for a long time & the rest of the season will be peacefully quiet. We deserve it.

This evening's moonrise over Tampa 🌆

Yesterday’s microburst in Ybor City. 📷 Mackenzie/Mike Gittinger

(MILTON UPDATE - SUN PM) #Milton has become a hurricane & could become a Cat 4 or even a Cat 5 in the open Gulf. WHERE IS IT GOING? 🌀Unfortunately, the afternoon/evening models didn't provide a ton of additional clarity. 🌀Anyone from Fort Myers to Crystal River should continue to be on high alert. But, models (as of this afternoon) are slowly converging on Pasco, Pinellas, Manatee, & Sarasota with higher confidence. TAMPA BAY: 🌀Please be very vigilant with this storm. We're looking at the potential of wind gusts up 140 mph & up to 11 ft surge. 🌀If a Pinellas or Pasco landfall occurs then a LARGE part of downtown Tampa & St. Petersburg will go underwater. (Remember: hurricane rotate counterclockwise, & that onshore water would funnel water into the Bay) 🌀If a Manatee or Sarasota landfall occurs, then the surge should not be a big concern for the Bay or Pinellas & north. But, Sarasota, Charlotte, & Lee would have significant surge. INLAND LOCATIONS: 🌀Surge obviously won’t be a concern, but anticipate significant wind damage, flooding, & power outages. EVACUATION AND PLANNING: 🌀Please don't wait until the last minute to evacuate. I'd recommend being off of the Tampa Bay interstates by Tuesday evening. 🌀Monday is the day to make final preparations (sandbags, putting away outdoor furniture, etc. Stay tuned! I will continue to have updates & provide as much detail as accurately possible.

This can't be ignored. ALL of the following models have #Ian making landfall in Sarasota/St Pete: --ECMWF (Europe) --KMA (Korea) --Icon (Germany) --Access-G (Australia) --UKMET Only the GFS(US) & CMC(Canada) have a landfall in the Big Bend. Not a forecast, just an observation

Bridge over the clouds 🌥🌁🌥 #seafog #sunshineskyway

So magical… snowing at Sequoia National Park, California.

Rocket launch over Tampa. 🚀🏙 Actually, I took this photo from St. Petersburg, with Tampa in the foreground, of a rocket 130 miles away in Cape Canaveral. 😀

The field wasn’t being used as a shelter during the storm. It was intended to be as a base camp for 10000 emergency responders after the storm.

The Skyway is going to experience Milton's strongest winds. The winds at bridge level (200 to 400 feet) above the ground could be as high as 150 mph. Can the bridge tolerate wind that high? I did a little research.. thankfully the engineers built the bridge to withstand sustained winds up to 240mph. Good thinking engineers!

WHICH WEATHER MODEL PROVIDES THE MOST ACCURATE HURRICANE FORECAST? The answer may surprise you! 🌀The ECMWF(Euro) is the workhorse, but didn’t provide the most accurate Idalia track/intensity forecast. There are some new players challenging the Euro for title of most accurate

He’s living in 2075 ☔️ nitter.app/Yatande_/status/157150…

A few pics of tonight's crescent moon & Venus. 🌛🌠

(MILTON UPDATE - TUESDAY) Major Hurricane Milton will make landfall in Tampa Bay in less than 36hrs. Keep reading for very important details/trends: BOTTOM LINE: ➡️ The NHC forecast cone still includes everyone from Crystal River to Cape Coral, but the majority of models are focused on the heart of Tampa Bay. ➡️ We are now within range of NOAA's super high res HRRR & RRFS-A models. These models can pickup on small weaknesses/strengths in steering currents. FORECAST TRACK: ➡️ I've highlighted the model arrows in red for the models that I trust the most within 36 hours of landfall. ➡️ Four out of five of these models have #Milton making landfall at or just south of the mouth of the Bay. ➡️ The precise landfall is EVERYTHING. A landfall in Pasco or Pinellas will double Helene's storm surge to St. Petersburg, Tampa, & the million homes/businesses line the Gulf & Bay. In this instance, the following places could go underwater: much of downtown Tampa including places like Amalie Arena, MacDill AFB, much of downtown St. Pete, Gibsonton, Apollo Beach, & everyone else right on the Bay. ➡️ Landfall south of the Skyway will reduce the extreme severity of surge in the Bay, but obviously be slightly increased for Sarasota & Charlotte counties. FORECAST: ➡️ The storm is anticipated to slowly start weakening when it is about 100 miles west of Florida, but it will still be a very strong major hurricane. ➡️ Winds at landfall: Around 110 mph, with a gust to 140 mph possible. ➡️ Rain: Areas near & just north of the center of the storm can expect considerable freshwater flooding due to 12-15" of rain. The storm will likely be lopsided around landfall, with the heaviest rain just north of eye. ➡️ Surge: Up to 15 ft for areas along & just south of the eye. The storm has had the entire Gulf to build water momentum. That massive push on the surface water is going to result in record surge for areas mainly south of the eye. EVACUATION: ➡️ Today is the last day for last minute preps & evacuation. Please don't wait to see precisely where the storm is going to make landfall. In my opinion, everyone in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, & Sarasota counties should evacuate. Even away from the surge threat, the winds will be strong enough to cause significant damage. ➡️ As always, follow the guidance of the NHC & local officials. ➡️ Let's continue to plan for the worst & hope for the best. ➡️ Stay tuned, I'll continue to post important updates. I've studied hurricanes at post graduate level & forecast hurricanes for over 20 years. Experience helps provide helpful insight.

ANNOUNCEMENT: I'm a dad! Kimberly & I are so excited to finally welcome Isaac Orion Bennett to the world. 👶

UNBELIEVABLE. #Milton has rapidly intensified into a Cat 4 storm with estimated max winds of 150 mph. 🌀 This is one of the most rapid intensifications on record. (I'll have to go through my records to see exactly where it stands) 🌀It is only 7 mph short of a being a Cat 5, which will likely happen today or tomorrow. 🌀It's 735 miles away from Tampa, moving ESE at 8 mph. 🌀Central pressure of 940mb, which is stronger than most models had occurring this quick.

Today deserves a sanding ovation ⌛🏖️🌅

Current view of storm surge flooding in Gulfport, FL. As of 5am, Gulfport and most coastal areas around Tampa Bay are experiencing surge flooding between 3 and 3.5ft (on top of high tide). Fortunately, astronomical high tide has just passed.

The large tornado in SE Chattanooga, TN touched down over or very close to Hamilton Place Mall. An area loaded with shops and restaurants. There are also several neighborhoods in the area. I fear the damage in this area might be quite severe.

Brief tornado in Largo (near Ranchero Village) around 720pm this evening. Damage from the mobile homes sent a ton of sheet metal airborne.

I kind of like this lightning picture that I took last night. ⚡📸😀

Nice pic of lightning taken recently over the Grand Canyon.⛈ (📸: Scott Keelin)

First full moon of 2021 this evening 🌝 As the moon crossed over the horizon it looked like a giant jellyfish escaping from the Gulf! Why?🤓 Explanation in this thread...

RIP Snooty (1948-2017). The world's oldest known manatee has passed away, just two days after his 69th birthday. ☹ @SouthFLMuseum

Boom! It was a shocking drive for anyone on the Skyway Bridge last night. The first photo shows a rain shrouded bridge with five bolts occurring simultaneously! That’s around 25 million volts of electricity! ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

(NOWCASTING - 230pm) #Milton just took a SHARP turn to the east northeast. 🌀 As of 2pm, the storm was still moving north & a Pinellas landfall was starting to look more likely. Most meteorologists were about to revise the forecast & ramp up surge predictions for the Bay. 🌀 BUT, with the sharp turn at 2pm a landfall near Sarasota is remaining the most likely landfall projection. Bringing catastrophic surge to Venice, Manasota, etc. 🌀 If the storm travels on this trajectory for another hour or two it will be almost impossible to hit Pinellas. 🌀 Milton is now going to slow down, which will prolong hurricane conditions & increase accumulated rainfall.

A huge tornado just moved though Seneca & #Clemson, SC. The debris ball looks to move just north of the University, which would suggest that the college was spared the worst damage. Appears the tornado has dissolved, but debris is still falling out of the storm.

We're entering the peak of hurricane season & activity is increasing. Two areas to watch: 1) Gulf & Florida: A stationary front is lingering over the region, providing a focus for cyclogenesis. Short-range models show a weak low possibly forming off Florida’s east coast Mon/Tue, with a chance of TD development moving NE. Another weak low may try to form in the Gulf & bring rain to Florida. Homegrown systems like this are common in early September. 2) African Wave: A strong tropical wave has just moved off Africa. Model ensembles suggest gradual development as it crosses the Atlantic on a WNW track. If it were to reach the U.S., the earliest timing would be around September 12. Bottom line: No threats right now, but both areas warrant watching.

So smoky in the Smoky Mountains due to continued wildfires & record drought. I took this picture from an airplane this morning.🔥

Sea fog is rolling in again this evening. 🌫️🌁 There's something mysterious & mystic about watching the wall of fog drift in off of the Gulf.

(MILTON - MONDAY MORNING UPDATE) This is as clear as it's going to get. It's time to make the evacuation decision. BOTTOM LINE: ➡️ The storm is going to become a monster Cat 4 or 5 in the open Gulf. It’ll start to weaken slightly as it approaches the coast, but it'll still be a Cat 3+/- hurricane. ➡️ At this point, the storm surge damage is done. Water doesn't lose momentum quickly. So, even if the storm weakens slightly, it's going to maintain the Cat 4 or 5 storm surge as it makes landfall. FORECAST: ➡️ The model spread & NHC cone still includes everyone from Crystal River to Sanibel. But the most reliable models (EC-AIFS, ECMWF, HMON, HAFS-A, HMON) are insisting on a landfall in Pasco, Pinellas, Manatee, or Sarasota. ➡️ Yes, the landfall location does make a huge difference between the catastrophic south side of the storm & the much kinder north side. The south side of the storm will have surge up to 12 feet (that is double what we saw with Helene). This level of storm surge is deadly in a vulnerable location. ➡️ Winds near the landfall will be around 125 mph, with higher gusts. Inland locations need to prepare for wind damage & power outages as well. Please plan for the worst & hope for the best.

#Ida is still 200 miles offshore, but storm surge flooding has begun in SE Louisiana.

Sunshine Skyway this evening 🌉🇺🇦#ukraine

I just took these pictures from Cape Canaveral. It was a successful launch of the @ulalaunch Delta IV rocket!

TEXAS FLOOD: A Meteorologist’s Perspective on the Camp Mystic Tragedy. The flash flooding along the Guadalupe River has claimed over 80 lives, including many children at Camp Mystic. As a meteorologist, I want to share perspective on the atmospheric & communication factors behind this heartbreaking event. Understanding what happened can’t undo the loss, but it can help prevent future tragedies. ______________________________________ 🌀 METEOROLOGY, TOPOGRAPHY & GEOLOGY: This event echoes past disasters like the Hurricane Helene flooding in the Carolinas, where stalled tropical rainfall in mountainous terrain led to devastating outcomes. • Rainfall: Up to 20.33 inches fell in localized parts of the Guadalupe watershed within hours. • Tropical Setup: Remnants of Tropical Storm Barry stalled and fueled repeated, training thunderstorms over the same area. • Terrain & Soil: The Texas Hill Country is marked by shallow, rocky soils and steep terrain—ideal for rapid runoff. • River Response: The Guadalupe River rose 26–29 feet in less than an hour, far exceeding the channel’s capacity. • Timing: The flooding occurred during the overnight hours, when people were asleep, visibility was low, and response time was limited. ______________________________________ 📈 FORECASTING PERFORMANCE • Global models (GFS, ECMWF) underestimated the event, forecasting 2–5 inches. ECMWF-AI predicted just 2 inches. • The high-resolution HRRR model, however, forecasted 15–20 inches, accurately identifying the extreme rainfall potential. • This highlights the importance of using high-res mesoscale models in convective flood-prone environments. ______________________________________ ⚠️ COMMUNICATION & ALERTING • Public Attention: Unlike hurricanes or tornado outbreaks, localized inland flooding often receives less attention, which may affect perceived urgency. • Alert Limitations: Many people silence phones at night, and weather radios are rarely used today. Critical warnings may not have been heard. • Cell Coverage: Camp Mystic is in a spotty reception area, which likely limited delivery of Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA). ______________________________________ ✅ NWS RESPONSE • A Flash Flood Watch was issued on Thursday afternoon. • A Flash Flood Warning was issued at 1:14 a.m. for Kerr County, warning of life-threatening flooding. • A Flash Flood Emergency was issued at 5:34 a.m.—the highest category of NWS warning. •NWS Austin/San Antonio had five forecasters on duty that night—more than twice the typical overnight staffing level. These meteorologists & hydrologists performed their duties with exceptional professionalism and precision, issuing timely forecasts and warnings throughout the event. ______________________________________ 🧪 NOAA CUTS & FORECAST CAPACITY • Radiosonde launches have been reduced by approximately 17% nationwide, slightly impacting upper-air data collection. • However, model resolution, rather than data scarcity, appeared to be the key factor in forecast accuracy with this event. • The high-resolution HRRR model accurately forecasted the extreme rainfall, highlighting the importance of model resolution. • Ongoing support for NOAA research and forecasting innovation is vital to maintain accuracy and resilience. ______________________________________ 🧭 HINDSIGHT & FUTURE IMPROVEMENTS Flooding along the Guadalupe isn’t unprecedented. Events in 1921, 1935, 1978, and 1998 show that this region is vulnerable. With hindsight, camping near the river during a heavy rain forecast carries obvious risk—but awareness and preparedness tools were limited. ______________________________________ 🔧 HOW TO IMPROVE WARNING REACH • Expand satellite-based emergency alert delivery (FEMA IPAWS, NOAA AWARN) to ensure alerts reach rural areas where cell service is limited. • Require large camps/events to have a designated person with a weather radio or other emergency alert system on hand at all times.

EVACUATE! If you're in the red shaded area, the NHC is forecasting your location to go under nine or more feet of water. This is a potentially deadly situation. If you can still safely leave this area of Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Port Charlotte... please do so immediately.

Over a foot of standing water (in the left lanes) of I-275 in downtown St. Petersburg. Stalled vehicles as well. 2.5” of rain fell in about an hour.

I snapped this lightning picture this evening, overlooking Tampa Bay. 🙄⛈

(SUNDAY UPDATE) The very latest #Milton models JUST came out & we are starting to narrow down on a landfall area & intensity. WHAT HAS CHANGED WITH TODAY'S MODELS? ➡️ There has been a slightly southerly shift amongst most global & high res models. Intensity projections have remained consistent. LANDFALL LOCATION IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT: ➡️ PINELLAS OR PASCO LANDFALL SCENARIO: Gulf Beaches (Clearwater, St. Pete Beach, etc) would potentially have storm surge up to 11 ft (five feet more than Helene). Water would funnel into the Bay & bring up to 10 ft surge to downtown Tampa, South Tampa, MacDill, even areas 10 miles upstream of the Hillsborough River. This could be a catastrophe for this area, potentially the worst hurricane in hundreds of years for populous Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater. ➡️ MANATEE OR SARASOTA LANDFALL SCENARIO: Pinellas & Pasco beaches & areas around the Bay, including downtown Tampa, would have a negligible (or even negative) storm surge. There would still be significant wind damage to Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, etc. The surge for downtown Sarasota & nearby beaches would be slightly greater than a Pinellas landfall. The winds would also be slightly greater than a farther north landfall. SO, WHICH IS IT GOING TO BE? ➡️ The NHC cone includes most of the FL peninsula. Models are ranging from the south tip of FL to Crystal River. This should give an idea that the storm forecast is still being fine tuned. ➡️ However, the most accurate track models (EC-AIFS, ECMWF, & ICON)... sprinkled in with influence from the high res hurricane models puts the storm in the Sarasota area. But this will need to be watched very very closely. HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AT LANDFALL? ➡️ I'm anticipating a strong Cat 3 or even Cat 4. But, landfall location matters. Outside of a Pasco to Sarasota County landfall then there are considerations for land interference from Cuba and/or the potential for dry air entrainment. ➡️ Coastal areas around Tampa Bay should prepare for wind gusts up to 130 mph. Inland locations should plan on gusts up to 100 mph. PREPARE NOW: ➡️ Currently, the higher likelihood of landfall is between Pasco and Sarasota Counties (aka. Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, & Sarasota). But, I wouldn't be shocked to see the focus shift farther south to Fort Myers or even a farther north track into Pasco County. So, it's wise for everyone in the peninsula to prepare as if it is coming your way. A last minute wobble could mean the difference in who gets the worst weather. ➡️ As always, please follow the guidance of the NHC and local officials.

The largest waves I’ve ever seen in Tampa Bay are occurring right now. I’d estimate that they are 10-12 ft tall. BEWARE: Winds are about to switch to the west & bring significant surge/waves to the Gulf beaches.

Check out these shocking lightning pics! My buddy, Justin Battles, took these pictures across central and south Florida over the past week or two.

RAINbow on the SUNshine Skyway Bridge.⛈🌞

We made it back safely to our home in St. Petersburg. We evacuated to Miami with the family, including Liberty (dog), Finnegan (cat), Bun Bun (rabbit), Radish (tortoise). Damage is very extensive & we don’t have electricity. But, we are safe. Hope you’re doing well post hurricane.🙏

Does this make anyone else feel claustrophobic? 🥶❄️ A blizzard just brought Newfoundland (Canada) an insane amount of snow. 🌨️

Move over "Moon over Miami"... how about this "Thunderstorm over Tampa"? ;-) @sjervewfla

This morning’s daylight is showing us how catastrophic Helene has been to many of the Tampa Bay beach/bay communities. The surge last night was the highest in over a hundred years. The result: flooded homes/cars, damaged properties, boats washed ashore, & sand filled streets. Please be kind to one another as cleanup & recovery begins. Feel free to share any photos/videos you may have from during or after the storm. Stay safe!

Sunshine Skyway this evening 🌉🤩

Most of Florida hit 100°F today, but this bolt brought the real heat... 50,000°F and a billion volts. ⚡️ 📸I caught this bolt striking Tampa Bay.

Dear Mother Nature, Love you, but can you please stop with the hurricanes. We are tired & stressed. Thanks, Florida P.S. If we’re gonna do this, can you AT LEAST send us some flamingoes like you did with Hurricane Idalia last year?

(HELENE DAMAGE-Tennessee) Following up on the massive destruction in Erwin, TN. A wall of water, moving at over 40 mph, came rushing down the valley, catching many off-guard. There are still 33 people missing. *Personal Note: My mom and sister live in Erwin. It’s a somber situation in this small mountain town. Also, concerned for folks across the state line in North Carolina that are suffering similar scenarios.

Current view from Tampa, Florida.

This evening's #SpaceX rocket launch with the St. Petersburg Pier in the foreground.🚀 @VSPC @Kriseman

(MILTON - TUESDAY EVE UPDATE) There have been a few changes to the outlook that I wanted to share: ➡️ The storm moved a little farther east than the models expected today. This resulted in a slights southerly shift in the anticipated landfall location. ➡️ The most reliable models (highlighted in red) are all forecasting landfall at our just south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. Recall that this has huge implications on the surge in the Bay. ➡️ The offtrack movement has also resulted in the storm arriving a little later than originally forecast. The worst conditions will arrive in Tampa Bay Wed night - Thu morning. ➡️ The models are suggesting a weakening of the incoming vertical shear, this may allow the storm to reach Tampa Bay slightly stronger. SURGE FORECAST: ➡️ Recall winds are offshore north of the landfall & onshore south of the landfall. ➡️ Landfall: Bradenton Beach to Sarasota as currently forecast... then it's possible that Tampa Bay will have a NEGATIVE SURGE of two or three feet. That means the Bay would actually partially drain. Same goes for Gulf beaches in Pinellas County & north. Areas south of the landfall, coastal Sarasota & Charlotte, will have catastrophic surge between 10-15 ft. ➡️ Every around the Bay & Pinellas County need to watch this landfall very very closely. If the storm makes landfall in Pinellas that changes everything. Tampa would have 13ft surge. St Pete would have 11ft. FORECAST (RAIN, WIND, SURGE, TIMING): ➡️ Current forecast landfall near Bradenton Beach/Sarasota. Any wobble will tweak this forecast. ➡️ Timing: Strongest winds 6pm Wed to 12pm Thu ➡️ Wind: 115 mph, Gusts to 135 mph for Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota counties. The highest winds will be in wide open or unimpeded areas (aka. next to the beach, Bay). Still up to 100 mph inland areas of these counties. Hillsborough up to 85mph. Orlando up to 70 mph. ➡️ Rain: Significant freshwater flooding possible just north of the eye. Based on this track, Pinellas, along the I-4 corridor, over to Orlando can expect up to 10-20 inches of rain. Anticipate dangerous freshwater flooding cutting across the state. BOTTOM LINE: ➡️ Please don’t backoff surge preparations in Pinellas & Hillsborough because of today's southerly model shift. A wobble north of only a few miles could bring back the 13 ft surge to Tampa. ➡️ This is a multiple hazard storm. Helene was mainly about the surge. Milton will have historic surge south of the landfall, significant freshwater flooding, & damaging winds. Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, & Sarasota will likely see more tree, powerline, & roof damage than experienced in a long time. Stay safe. Continue to prepare for the worst & plan for the best. Please continue to follow guidance of the NHC & local officials.

Here's the APPROXIMATE track of the Seneca/Clemson tornado. Looks like Seneca took a near direct hit, then the tornado started to dissolve and move just barely north of Clemson University.

(UPDATE: THU 1PM) ANTICIPATING RECORD SURGE TONIGHT: Bottom Line: The peak surge flooding in the Tampa Bay Area is going to rise between 4 & 6 feet higher than it is right now at 1pm. You can check the graphic, below, to see how much higher the water will get in your area. 📷Sarasota & Manatee Co: Water will rise an additional 4.5 ft. 📷Pinellas Co: Water will rise an additional 6 ft on the Gulf side & 5 ft on the Bay side. 📷Hillsborough Co: Bay water will rise an additional 5 ft 📷Pasco Co: Gulf water will rise an additional 7 ft 📷Cedar Key Area: Gulf water will rise an additional 10 ft 📷Steinhatchee Area: Gulf water will rise an additional 14 ft

Sea fog rolling in over the Sunshine Skyway this evening.🌉🌫️

Beautiful evening! 🌉🌅

Colorful shelf cloud preceding this evening’s storms. 🌉⛈

One useful tool that can be used immediately after a severe weather event is.. Google Maps Slowed or stopped traffic usually indicates the location of the tornado Combining radar maps with current traffic... I've highlighted where the tornado likely passed through Newnan, GA

Rare iridescent clouds and a rainbow visible this evening over Tampa Bay. Ahhhmazing! ☀️🌈

Gnarly backside of the shelf cloud that just passed over Tampa Bay.

Storm surge flooding right now in Tampa (Old Port Tampa) is the 4th highest on record. Sea water height (above MHHW) is peaking right now at 3.39 ft. Hurricane Idalia peaked at 4.18 ft.

(MILTON - SURGE) Here's my surge forecast based on a Pinellas County (around Madeira Beach) landfall vs a Manatee County (around Bradenton Beach) landfall. The difference, for some, is enormous. BOTTOM LINE: 🌊These two locations are only 25 miles apart, but it will make a WORLD of difference as to who receives the catastrophic surge. 🌊The counterclockwise winds around a hurricane means that locations (in the left quadrant) to the north of landfall will have offshore winds & marginal surge. Locations (in the right quadrant) to the south will have onshore winds & devastating surge. PINELLAS COUNTY LANDFALL: 🌊A Pinellas County landfall means that downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, & everyone adjacent to the Bay will have catastrophic flooding reaching twice the height of Helene's surge. 🌊The estimated population impacted by a 10ft+ surge is around 510,000. MANATEE COUNTY LANDFALL: 🌊A Manatee County landfall means that downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, & everyone adjacent to the Bay will only have a less intense, perhaps marginal, surge. Tampa's surge would be TEN FEET LESS than a landfall occurring 25 miles farther north in Pinellas. 🌊However, areas around Longboat Key & Siesta Key would have a slightly higher surge. 🌊The estimated population impacted by a 10 ft surge or greater would be around 200,000. NOTE: 🌊I reached these forecast numbers by comparing data from Hurricane Michael with this storm, factoring in observations from the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane, local bathymetry/topography details, & knowledge about tropical systems. 🌊Neither scenario is ideal. Obviously folks in downtown St. Pete and downtown Tampa would prefer a much farther south landfall. With any luck this storm & it's dangerous surge would dissipate. But.. unfortunately that's not going to happen. So, it's time to have realistic numbers so rescue crews, etc can plan accordingly. FORECAST: 🌊As of the latest models, a landfall around Bradenton Beach is looking more likely. But, a slight wobble can take the storm either direction. 🌊These numbers are my forecast based on the best of my ability. But, every storm is different. Please follow guidance from the NHC and local officials.

It's my birthday! 😀🎂🎉. Hard to believe that I'm already 25 years old! Never mind the "40" on the cake. It's a typo 😉

I spent the evening walking the St. Petersburg waterfront.🏃🌇 The new pier is going to be a great addition to the city when it opens next week. @VSPC @VisitTampaBay @VISITFLORIDA

I could stare at a starry sky for hours! 🌠 Here's the view from deep in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas. 🌠 The brightest dot is Jupiter.

(GAME DAY) There's a debate on which team is faster: @TBLightning or Pittsburgh Penguins. Hmmm. :-) #GoBolts

This evening's sky 🌉😍 #sunshine_skyway

ICYMI: A meteorite smashed into a woman's home in western Canada on October 3rd. 🌠 The meteorite landed on Ruth Hamilton's pillow, inches from where she was sleeping. 🌠 It likely traveled millions of miles from the asteroid belt. 🌠 The space rock is worth over $100,000.

Good morning October! 🎃🌴🍁

#BOLTS WIN, 3-2!!!! Series 2-1.

WOW!! Check out this "fever" of stingrays in Tampa Bay. #quadcopter

Dolphins galore! I spotted a pod of 10 dolphins just offshore of Fort Desoto. 🐬 #quadcopter @ShareALittleSun

The sky was "Don-ning" a beautiful look this evening! 🌅🌴#Don_Cesar #St_Pete_Beach #PinkPalace #PinkSky

A drive over the Skyway bridge lofted you above the clouds this morning. 🌫️🌁🌫️ #seafog

Wow! The storm top visible in this picture is 300 miles away! I took the picture from St. Pete Beach, FL & the storm was near Mobile, Alabama. It also created a nifty shadow across the sky. 🔭 ⛈️

(NOWCASTING - 4PM) If #Milton stays on the current trajectory it will move into the Bradenton/Anna Maria area. 🌀There was a sharp turn toward the east around 2pm 🌀The severity of that turn has moderated. The storm is now moving with a slightly more northerly trajectory. 🌀These type of wobbles are expected & are important in the ultimate landfall location. 🌀We've established how incredibly important the precise landfall will be for storm surge, etc. Everyone 40 miles south of the landfall will have 10+ storm surge.

"The sky is glitching." Floridians are used to lightning, but the storm in Polk County is next level with nonstop lightning. A friend just sent this video of the strobe fest.

Nice "green flash" at sunset 🌅🤓

What a beautiful start to a new month! Happy first day of July! 😍🌴☀️ @VSPC @sjervewfla

The Mothership has arrived. 🛸⛈️ This shelf cloud over Tampa Bay was created by an outflow boundary blowing out of severe storms in Alabama & the Florida panhandle.

Tonight's electric storm captured at at a really high frame rate (100 FPS)⚡📸

I feel like I'm living back in the 1700s with no #verizon cell phone service. No GPS, phone calls, texting. Time to go light candles & feed the horses. #verizonoutage

This evening's sunset 😍

Yup .. idalia last year. Let’s hope this doesn’t become an annual thing

A bird's gotta eat 🐦 Despite 0.3 mile visibility due to dense fog ... birds are out looking for breakfast. A pronounced rooster ring is visible in central Sarasota County. Rooster rings are radar reflections of numerous birds leaving their overnight resting spot.

I collected a sample of Saharan Dust from the recent dust event. Hard to believe that this dust traveled 5,000mi from the deserts of Africa. Related Note: If dust can travel 5,000 miles, you better believe that germs from a sneeze/cough can travel six feet. #WearAMask #COVID

(MILTON - WED 1PM) Major Hurricane Milton is 160 miles from making landfall in Tampa Bay. BOTTOM LINE: ➡️ The hurricane is encountering some wind shear & dry air which has knocked it down to a Cat 4. It will not regain Cat 5 status. ➡️ I anticipate the hurricane to make landfall as a low end Cat 4 or a high end Cat 3 between 10pm & 4am tonight. ➡️ The model spread has reduced to only a 30 mile range from southern Pinellas to Central Sarasota Co. This will be the last model outlook that I show. It will be nowcasting until landfall. ➡️ Based on nowcasting, the storm is currently staying right on track for a landfall just north of Sarasota. But, it's going to need to start a more easterly trajectory over the coming hours if it's going to go south of the Bay. ➡️ A landfall just north of Sarasota appears most likely, BUT a southern Pinellas landfall can't be completely ruled out. As previous mentioned, a Pinellas landfall will bring surge up to 13 feet into the Bay (downtown Tampa, downtown St. Pete, etc) FORECAST: ➡️ Landfall: The strongest winds in coastal Tampa Bay will be between 7pm & 3am, with landfall occurring around midnight. ➡️ Sustained Winds: Expect sustained winds between 115 & 135 mph along unimpeded coastal Tampa Bay (aka. at the beach or Bay) ➡️ Wind Gusts: Anna Maria & Sarasota 130 mph, Siesta Key 135 mph, St. Petersburg 105 mph, Clearwater 105 mph, Tampa 90 mph, Lakeland 85 mph, Orlando 65 mph. ➡️ Rain: 10-20 inches between Pinellas County, along the I4 corridor, to Orlando. Bottom Line: ➡️ This is a very dangerous triple threat storm with surge, wind, & rain. It's not too late to evacuate, but the time is ticking. Please follow guidance from local officials and the NHC

How do you like my photo collage of planes landing at Tampa Int'l this afternoon? :-) @FlyTPA @VisitTampaBay @VSPC

A few clouds & sea fog gave the water a beautiful turquoise color this afternoon🌴🌅