Just flew back home after a 10+ hour flight. Sharing some in-flight thoughts on AI ✈️
Q: What assumptions should we make when imagining future AI applications?
TL;DR:
1. Model inference will become nearly free
2. AI will solve most objectively verifiable problems
3. Personal AI models will diverge on subjective issues
We often take many things for granted because we're so accustomed to them. For instance, we assume phones can easily connect to the Internet, or that we can get real-time traffic updates while driving. But these were once groundbreaking innovations. If we can enter this state of familiarity early, or make the right assumptions, we might be able to gain an advantage in future developments.
Here are three assumptions I believe will eventually prove true in AI progress. I hope they provide some inspiration and welcome discussion:
1. Model inference will become nearly free
The cost reduction of AI models is following a deterministic trajectory. We've already witnessed more than a 10x reduction in inference costs over the past few months, and this trend is set to continue as we refine our techniques in both model training and inference.
Think about how web search evolved. Initially, online searches were limited and sometimes charged per query. Now, we can perform countless Google searches daily without direct costs. This shift enabled new business models like search advertising. Similarly, as AI inference costs plummet, we'll see a proliferation of AI-powered applications and innovative business models.
2. AI will solve most objectively verifiable problems
This might sound like a bold claim, but it's logically sound. The key logic is that "verifying a problem is simpler than solving it." As long as we have initial models with sufficient verification abilities, they should be able to bootstrap themselves to become more powerful (the AlphaGo series is a good example of this). Of course, realizing this simple logic is no easy task, but hopefully, it will become a reality in the near future.
3. Personal AI models will diverge on subjective issues
For problems where there isn't (and shouldn't be) a consensus, AI models will likely diverge. As the effective context of models grows longer and has more long-term impact on outputs, models will eventually develop unique "opinions."
Imagine having a personal AI assistant that, over time, develops a deep understanding of your unique worldview, tastes, and values. When asked about the best way to spend a weekend, one person's AI might suggest an action-packed outdoor adventure, while another's might recommend a quiet day of reading and reflection - each perfectly tailored to their user's preferences.
Looking forward to more "assumptions"!🤔💬