I get the “operating system” metaphor but the key thing about operating systems were that they bridged different layers of abstractions, to reify a higher-order plane of things (“software”) above a lower plane of hardware voltages comprising bits.
A lot of the immediate near-term lift from LLMs will be in orchestration and melting through a lot of accumulated cruft and tech complexity, and increasing the TAM of who can build apps with computers.
But is there a higher level of abstraction? LLMs seem to be able to terminate directly into a human’s mental frame… no abstraction needed.
To me, it’s entirely possible that we are crossing the threshold into a new kind of very bespoke information system architecture.
The tough question for businesses and investors is: what if there really is no new durable, defensible, scalable monetization in most of this?
With many 🧩 dropping recently, a more complete picture is emerging of LLMs not as a chatbot, but the kernel process of a new Operating System. E.g. today it orchestrates:
- Input & Output across modalities (text, audio, vision)
- Code interpreter, ability to write & run programs
- Browser / internet access
- Embeddings database for files and internal memory storage & retrieval
A lot of computing concepts carry over. Currently we have single-threaded execution running at ~10Hz (tok/s) and enjoy looking at the assembly-level execution traces stream by. Concepts from computer security carry over, with attacks, defenses and emerging vulnerabilities.
I also like the nearest neighbor analogy of "Operating System" because the industry is starting to shape up similar:
Windows, OS X, and Linux <-> GPT, PaLM, Claude, and Llama/Mistral(?:)).
An OS comes with default apps but has an app store.
Most apps can be adapted to multiple platforms.
TLDR looking at LLMs as chatbots is the same as looking at early computers as calculators. We're seeing an emergence of a whole new computing paradigm, and it is very early.