Ex-neuroscientist | Python Maximalist | Swing HODLer | Data Scientist | Co-founder @glassnode
Berlin
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"2% of accounts control 95% of all #Bitcoin "
Wrong.
BTC ownership is much less concentrated than often reported – and has dispersed over time.
Meanwhile, whale supply has increased – suggesting institutional investors arriving.
Report: insights.glassnode.com/bitco…
THREAD 👇👇👇
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#Bitcoin is in a supply and liquidity crisis.
This is extremely bullish! And highly underrated.
I believe we will see this significantly reflected in Bitcoin's price in the upcoming months.
Let's take a look at the data.
A thread 👇👇👇
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1+ year hodlers: selling
2+ year hodlers: selling
3+ year hodlers aka "been in a bull market before and know how this works": stacking sats
#Bitcoin
Chart: glassno.de/3ve2Cy0
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While you're concerned with FUD, #Bitcoin simply continues to work as intended, securely producing block after block, like clockwork, following a deterministic supply schedule, controlled by no one, unstoppable since more than a decade.
Never lose sight of this amid the noise.
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#Bitcoin supply has been steadily maturing to old hands.
From the peak at $65k, almost 2 million $BTC have transitioned from short-term to long-term holders.
Supply will not be able to match demand.
Be patient, #hodl.
Chart: glassno.de/3lNd3F2
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#Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score
- High values (⚫️): Increased whale accumulation
- Low values (🟡): Accumulation predominantly from small entities
Yes, you want to see those dark colors – big players scooping up BTC.
Bullish.
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$100m+ short liquidations within 10 minutes.
Don't 👏 bet 👏 against 👏 #Bitcoin 👏
Chart: glassno.de/3rNnDgQ
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The uptick in addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC is a result of the WBTC custodian moving reserves into a bunch of newly created addresses.
Not "whale accumulation".
#Bitcoin
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The amount of illiquid #Bitcoin supply in the network has grown more than the circulating supply since 2017.
Meanwhile, liquid supply continues to see a steep decrease.
Pair this with the demand from MSTR, Square, Tesla, Grayscale et al., and understand how bullish this is.
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#Bitcoin accumulation score by cohort.
Those blue tones we're starting to see again in recent weeks? Yes, increased accumulation across cohorts.
Very bullish if we see this trend continue.
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1/ A thread on #Bitcoin miner metrics.
First, some fundamentals.
Bitcoin's average hash rate hit a new ATH yesterday – crossing a daily average of 178 exahash / sec for the first time in history.
Miners keep spinning up machines – hash rate is up only.
glassno.de/3utg7bU
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$8.9 billion in #Bitcoin were moved on–chain in a single hour this afternoon.
It's the highest hourly USD transaction volume in Bitcoin's history 🔥
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1/ Unprecedented capital inflows into #Bitcoin as measured by realized capitalization.
Over the past 6 months, realized cap has surged a whopping $250 billion – an increase of ~200%.
Healthy bull market.
Chart: glassno.de/3f24eDV
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If you own one #bitcoin, you have absolute mathematical certainty that *at most* 21 million other human beings can ever have as much BTC as you do.
Ever.
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don'ts
* short #bitcoin
* leverage trade
* invest more than you can afford to lose
dos
* stack sats
* buy dips
* hodl
it's really that easy
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BREAKING: #Bitcoin inflation rate currently sitting at 1.7%, continues to follow its preprogrammed, fully predictable downwards trajectory.
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Last bull market, $BTC was at ~$8,500 when Marketcap to Thermocap was at the current levels – and surged another 135% to the top in just a month.
Things can go fast.
Yea this time's different, but just in case: 135% from here is ~$110k.
#Bitcoin
Chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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Where is the #Bitcoin TOP?
These 20+ charts that can help you gauge late bull markets and top formations.
Long thread 🧵👇
1/ MVRV, a classic. Measures unrealized profitability and has previously signaled overheated above 7.
Currently hovering around 3 – room to grow.
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When a single word liquidates $57M in short positions on Binance within 10 minutes 😬
#Bitcoin
Chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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The total amount of capital inflows into #Bitcoin in the past 30 days (as estimated by realized cap), is as high as the whole $BTC market cap in Sept 2017 and early 2019: ~$70 billion USD
🤯
Data: @glassnode
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That was quick: funding rates flipped positive again.
Longs are back to paying shorts.
#Bitcoin
Chart: glassno.de/33HiEnK
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Almost $1.4B (!) of longs liquidated across major exchanges within an hour. Ouch.
#Bitcoin
Chart: glassno.de/3svcsJn
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#Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 7.8%
It is the 8th consecutive difficulty increase since China's ban and the great hashrate migration.
Chart: glassno.de/3GFqzEf
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A #Bitcoin price increase while NUPL remains stable is healthy.
Indicates that the market cap is not rising at an excessively faster rate than profit taking and new capital inflows.
Not the top, we haven't even crossed .75 into the greed/euphoria zone.
glassno.de/3tlinSf
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Not much #Bitcoin realized between here and $51k. Would not be surprised if we dipped a bit more.
Strongest on-chain support currently at $47,400.
glassno.de/3vS1PTW
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#Bitcoin price on whitepaper day –
2010: $0.2
2011: $3.2
2012: $11.0
2013: $203
2014: $338
2015: $312
2016: $697
2017: $6,441
2018: $6,318
2019: $9,190
2020: $13,790
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On-chain data is beautiful. Here a fingerprint of #Bitcoin cycles.
Long-term supply decreases as HODLers take profits during bull markets – and increases in re-accumulation phases at cheaper prices.
Smart money.
Chart: glassno.de/2MI191x
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A couple of old coins moved today – nothing new, happens regularly.
Here's what you should keep your eyes on: OG miners (+10 years) moving chunks of 1,000 BTC (20 outputs) to exchanges since December.
Near-perfect local tops.
#Bitcoin
@glassnode chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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This support is holding nicely.
And it got stronger! We now have a wall of 1.2M $BTC that moved on-chain between $46.6k and $48.6k.
That's 6.5% (!) of the circulating supply.
I'd be surprised if we go below anytime soon.
I was long at <$50k, and am long now anyways.
#Bitcoin
Very strong on-chain support at $47k – around 500,000 $BTC have been moved at that level.
Imo important that we hold it, otherwise we could see low forties quickly before the next upwards movements.
#Bitcoin
Chart: glassno.de/3uSCcSh
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Investors becoming more fearful –
#Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) drops into the "anxiety" zone for the first time since October as unrealized gains fall below 50%.
glassno.de/3fttu6e
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Up 240% since the last thanksgiving day massacre.
#Bitcoin
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Very strong on-chain support at $47k – around 500,000 $BTC have been moved at that level.
Imo important that we hold it, otherwise we could see low forties quickly before the next upwards movements.
#Bitcoin
Chart: glassno.de/3uSCcSh
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The recent development of #Bitcoin ordinals and inscriptions is truly astounding.
If adoption continues to accelerate, we might well see a paradigm shift in terms of network usage, block space, and fees – as suggested by the recent on-chain footprint.
A chart overview 🧵
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Bitcoins mined in 2021: ~26,000 BTC
Grayscale holdings in 2021: +40,000 BTC
That's who you're selling to, when you're selling now.
#Bitcoin
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Massive inflows of $USDC to exchanges this year.
Loads of gunpowder waiting on the sidelines.
I'm ready. #Bitcoin
Chart ––> studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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3/ #Bitcoin miners have been making more than $50 Million per day for the past month.
Put into perspective: A year ago this number was around $12 Million – that's a 4x increase, despite the block subsidy being cut in half.
Important datapoint!
Chart: glassno.de/3cUwV5J
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#Bitcoin at $56k, but Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) at the same level of $BTC at $41k – love it.
Euphoria/greed zone next?
Chart: glassno.de/3bluNSB
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#Bitcoin breaching new ATHs, and funding rates at the lowest levels since Monday 👀
studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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This is very bullish. No panic selling from folks that got in above $50,000.
People understand this is just another correction in a market on its way to higher highs.
#Bitcoin
60-Day SOPR (entity-adjusted) reset without falling below one.
This indicates a high HODLing conviction from new investors, as coins that were bought in 2021 did not move at a loss during this last dip.
#Bitcoin
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Short-term holders now under water, as STH-MVRV drops below the neutral line.
Key level.
#Bitcoin
Chart: glassno.de/3yoaq1N
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⚡️ Lightning Network
Capacity: +160% YTD
Nodes: +90% YTD
Channels: +95% YTD
Excited to see how these numbers continue to develop in the upcoming months after today.
#Bitcoin #Lightning
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Two potential scenarios.
1. We hit the top and were moving sideways. Investors had almost three months to cash out close to ATH. We're now entering a bear market.
2. It's a usual (musk-induced) correction in a volatile market as seen many times before.
Choose wisely.
#Bitcoin
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Monthly Binary Coin Days Destroyed
The number of days per month in which more coin days were destroyed than on average.
Yes, we are in a bull market.
Yes, profits have been taken.
Yes, seems to be cooling off again – bullish!
(Note: current month is still incomplete)
#Bitcoin
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#Bitcoin Hash Ribbon is setting up for a buy signal soon.
When hash rate recovers (30d MA crosses above 60d MA) and $BTC price momentum is positive, Hash Ribbon has given excellent entry points.
h/t @caprioleio for such an elegant metric!
Live chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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No, you're not too late to the party.
Many on-chain indicators show that the bull market is only getting started.
With $BTC at $16.8k, Reserve Risk is just breaking out of the green zone and even lower than 2019 when BTC hit $13k.
#Bitcoin
Chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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Open interest across major exchanges constantly over $22 billion for almost a week now 👀
#Bitcoin
Chart: glassno.de/2PUep4r
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The relative unrealized profit of #bitcoin long-term holders currently sitting at 0.74, well below the overheated levels seen in previous cycles—there's room to run.
Watching this closely as we approach 0.9 and beyond.
glassno.de/lth-relative-unre…
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I ran the numbers. #Bitcoin
$3,500 to $20,000 = +471%
$48,000 + 471% = $274,000
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When you think you doubled your pizza by cutting it in half.
The idea that Bitcoin is scarce as there's only 21 million is nonsense. One #Bitcoin merely represents an arbitrary quantity of 100 million Satoshis. So, it's the total number of Satoshis that must be considered. With a supply of 2.1 quadrillion Satoshis are anything but scarce!
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In 2020, #Ethereum flipped #Bitcoin in terms of network fees.
Users spent almost $600M in fees on the Ethereum network last year – 83% more than on Bitcoin.
Data: @glassnode
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Recent #Bitcoin price action is not surprising, given an overextended SOPR (see quoted thread).
SOPR is nicely declining towards 1, less $BTC is being moved on-chain at extreme profits.
I am slowly getting ready to #BTFD.
Chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
1/ The current state of #Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)
A thread across all SOPR variants 👇
TLDR – I'm staying put and patient, SOPR is still dangerously high. Even if we see some upside now, further (healthy) pullbacks mid-term are not unlikely.
(Data: @glassnode)
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Activity of US government bitcoins, 1501 #BTC just moved. Observing closely..
📊glassno.de/42QJ6aB
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4/ Speaking of @Grayscale:
Bitcoins added to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in the past 6 months: ~210,000 BTC
Bitcoins mined in the past 6 months: ~185.000 BTC
That's right, Grayscale has been buying up more bitcoins than the amount issued.
Talk about a supply crisis!
#Bitcoin
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1/ A thread showing 12 charts that illustrate #Bitcoin investor confidence and increased HODLing behavior.
Spoiler: This is long-term extremely bullish.
(data @glassnode)
Let's dig in 👇
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8/ I see strong #Bitcoin miner metrics. Great fundamentals, bullish long-term – selling or capitulation not in sight. Imo miners have little to no incentives to be cashing out now and have other means to cover capex and opex (e.g. borrowing).
As always, all data from @glassnode.
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2/ In the past weeks, realized cap has been increasing steeper relative to market cap, leading to a decline of MVRV – despite a "flat" #Bitcoin price.
MVRV-Z at this price level in February: 7.6
MVRV-Z today: 4.4
MVRV-Z at previous cycle tops: 10+
Chart: glassno.de/3eYGm3V
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The number of #Bitcoin "wholecoiner" addresses (holding ≥ 1 BTC) on this day every year 📈
Data: studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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Careful though – it's not overtaking it. Those are plotted on two different axes (scales). In absolute numbers the #BTC supply held by long-term investors has consistent been larger. On the same scale you get this graph:
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Were #Bitcoin investors that bought the 2017 top desperately waiting for new ATHs to cash out and leave?
I don't think so.
$BTC supply last active 3+ years (includes the 2017 top) is at 35%, still rising, and showing no signs of slowing down.
Chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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📈Largest #ETH ETF inflows to date – over $550M added in the past week.
Leading the charge:
Blackrock: +$286M
Fidelity: +$197M
#Ethereum
Chart: glassno.de/4fywtYH
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1/ Love to see how much @glassnode workbench is being used only a couple of days after we launched it.
Short thread with examples.
How much #BTC was moved in the past 6 months? 👉 studio.glassnode.com/workben…
Answer: 6M (33% of supply) – 12.5M are HODLed for at least half a year.
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2/ Importantly, over the past years we've seen a continuous dispersion of the #Bitcoin supply distribution, shifting more BTC towards smaller holders – a trend that continues to endure.
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#Ethereum users paid a median fee of $4,830 per transaction in the past hour....ummmm okay.
Chart 👉 studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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3/ Institutional #BTC Demand
@Grayscale (573M BTC), @MicroStrategy ($475M), @sqcrypto ($50M), Ruffer ($745M), @massmutual ($100M) – all buying up supply.
Do you really think they're alone? Of course not.
Expect many more on the move. They're coming – gradually, then suddenly.
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5/ Exchange Balances
Liquidity is vanishing from exchanges.
We're seeing the longest depletion of exchange funds.
Since January, the BTC supply on exchanges dropped a staggering 20%.
#BTC is being pulled to long-term storage, custodian wallets, etc.
studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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2.7 million $BTC are held in accumulation addresses – that's an increase of 17% in the past year.
These are addresses that have received at least 2 incoming transactions and have never spend funds.
Miner and exchange addresses are excluded.
#Bitcoin
(Data @glassnode)
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Playing around with @willywoo's Difficulty Ribbon.
Using a normalized standard deviation to quantify ribbon compression (best times to buy $BTC is when the ribbon compresses).
Green zones are thresholded at < 0.05.
See where we are?
(Data from @glassnode API)
#Bitcoin
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1/ Accumulation Balance
The amount of bitcoins held in accumulation addresses is 2.7M BTC.
Those are addresses that have only received bitcoins, and never spent funds.
True HODLers, hoarding 14.5 % of the circulating supply.
#Bitcoin
Chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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BTC balance on #BitMEX vs $BTC price since 2018.
Make of it what you will.
#Bitcoin
studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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The Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio suggests that #Bitcoin has massive room to grow from here.
It has not even started to show the sharp increase that is typical in bull markets.
Current levels are a whole order of magnitude away from previous $BTC tops.
studio.glassnode.com/metrics…
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