MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator

Modeling expected outcomes to simulate MLB games, inspired by @MoneyPuckdotcom. Code: github.com/dgrifka/baseball_โ€ฆ Creator: @DerekGrifka

dtw-str.streamlit.app
Joined June 2024
๐Ÿ“ฒ Get @mlb_simulator's new tweets in Telegramvia @TwiTelegram_Bot โ€” no X account needed
Hi! Launched a Streamlit app for the Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter. You can now easily search any game from the 2025 season (soon 2026). Note I added spray angle to the model, which accounts for where balls are hit on the field, not just how hard. dtw-str.streamlit.app

MLB Deserve to Win Simulator

Interactive web app for exploring MLB game simulation results.

dtw-str.streamlit.app
1
5
38
35,360
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Tigers at Guardians (10/12/2024) Actual score: Tigers 3, Guardians 7 Deserve-to-win: Tigers 76%, Guardians 15%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTigers #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Tigers #Guardians
77
96
1,103
192,689
Yankees at Royals (10/09/2024) Actual score: Yankees 3, Royals 2 Deserve-to-win: Yankees 96%, Royals 3%, Tie 1% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimRoyals #Baseball #Yankees #Royals
18
43
885
93,587
--------- ALERT --------- Royals are luck merchants! Royals at Yankees (10/07/2024) Actual score: Royals 4, Yankees 2 Deserve-to-win: Royals 20%, Yankees 72%, Tie 8% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRoyals #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Royals #Yankees
35
65
848
207,462
Guardians at Yankees (10/14/2024) Actual score: Guardians 2, Yankees 5 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 0%, Yankees 100%, Tie 0% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Guardians #Yankees
17
38
794
86,746
๐Ÿšจ Cubs are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Brewers @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/20/2025 Final Score: Brewers 3 - 4 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 72% - 18% Cubs (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Cubs #ThisIsMyCrew #BeHereForit
99
24
665
92,918
๐Ÿšจ Brewers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Mets @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/10/2025 Final Score: Mets 6 - 7 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Mets 78% - 13% Brewers (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #Mets #Brewers #LGM #ThisIsMyCrew
120
30
631
168,301
๐Ÿšจ Cubs are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Brewers @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/19/2025 Final Score: Brewers 1 - 4 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 53% - 32% Cubs (Tie 15%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Cubs #ThisIsMyCrew #BeHereForit
101
21
575
65,151
How does your MLB #Postseason team's advancement probabilities look heading into the Division Series?
29
16
528
883,702
๐Ÿšจ Red Sox are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Yankees @ Red Sox ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/13/2025 Final Score: Yankees 1 - 2 Red Sox ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Yankees 60% - 24% Red Sox (Tie 16%) #MLB #Statcast #Yankees #RedSox #RepBX #DirtyWater
39
35
504
45,654
๐Ÿšจ Brewers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Mets @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/09/2025 Final Score: Mets 4 - 7 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Mets 70% - 18% Brewers (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #Mets #Brewers #LGM #ThisIsMyCrew
84
35
490
67,047
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
35
91
446
251,344
๐Ÿšจ Mets are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Mets @ Yankees ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 05/17/2025 Final Score: Mets 3 - 2 Yankees ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Mets 29% - 62% Yankees (Tie 9%) #MLB #Statcast #Mets #Yankees #MLBSimMets #MLBSimYankees
39
37
450
63,229
๐Ÿšจ Dodgers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Yankees @ Dodgers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 05/30/2025 Final Score: Yankees 5 - 8 Dodgers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Yankees 58% - 29% Dodgers (Tie 13%) #MLB #Statcast #Yankees #Dodgers #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimDodgers
27
24
457
39,216
๐Ÿšจ Brewers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Brewers @ Braves ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/04/2025 Final Score: Brewers 3 - 1 Braves ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 19% - 67% Braves (Tie 14%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Braves #ThisIsMyCrew #BravesCountry
90
24
452
97,770
๐Ÿšจ Dodgers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Dodgers @ Blue Jays ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 11/01/2025 Final Score: Dodgers 5 - 4 Blue Jays ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 36% - 54% Blue Jays (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays #LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo
15
53
419
60,585
โšพ Pirates @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/12/2025 Final Score: Pirates 0 - 14 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Pirates 0% - 100% Brewers (Tie 0%) #MLB #Statcast #Pirates #Brewers #LetsGoBucs #ThisIsMyCrew
45
8
390
36,557
โšพ Brewers @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/18/2025 Final Score: Brewers 7 - 0 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 97% - 1% Cubs (Tie 2%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Cubs #ThisIsMyCrew #BeHereForit
36
10
386
35,472
๐Ÿšจ Red Sox are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Red Sox @ Yankees ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/08/2025 Final Score: Red Sox 11 - 7 Yankees ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Red Sox 31% - 56% Yankees (Tie 13%) #MLB #Statcast #RedSox #Yankees #MLBSimRedSox #MLBSimYankees
23
22
371
45,919
๐Ÿšจ Dodgers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Tigers @ Dodgers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 03/27/2025 Final Score: Tigers 4 - 5 Dodgers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Tigers 87% - 8% Dodgers (Tie 5%) #MLB #Statcast #Tigers #Dodgers #MLBSimTigers #MLBSimDodgers
5
20
368
33,089
๐Ÿšจ Brewers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Brewers @ Braves ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/05/2025 Final Score: Brewers 7 - 2 Braves ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 33% - 51% Braves (Tie 15%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Braves #ThisIsMyCrew #BravesCountry
86
14
363
220,788
6
2
357
10,074
๐Ÿšจ Brewers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Giants @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/22/2025 Final Score: Giants 4 - 5 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Giants 76% - 15% Brewers (Tie 9%) #MLB #Statcast #Giants #Brewers #SFGiants #ThisIsMyCrew
48
13
355
27,439
๐Ÿšจ Guardians are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Yankees @ Guardians ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 04/21/2025 Final Score: Yankees 4 - 6 Guardians ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Yankees 70% - 22% Guardians (Tie 8%) #MLB #Statcast #Yankees #Guardians #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimGuardians
25
33
353
46,467
๐Ÿšจ Angels are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Angels @ Yankees ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/16/2025 Final Score: Angels 1 - 0 Yankees ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Angels 16% - 72% Yankees (Tie 13%) #MLB #Statcast #Angels #Yankees #RepTheHalo #RepBX
34
23
351
34,061
โšพ Cubs @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 10/11/2025 Final Score: Cubs 1 - 3 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 4% - 92% Brewers (Tie 4%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Brewers #BeHereForit #ThisIsMyCrew
16
16
353
19,688
4
13
343
11,222
๐Ÿšจ Phillies are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Phillies @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 09/01/2025 Final Score: Phillies 10 - 8 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Phillies 16% - 76% Brewers (Tie 8%) #MLB #Statcast #Phillies #Brewers #RingTheBell #ThisIsMyCrew
26
6
339
35,406
๐Ÿšจ Blue Jays are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Cubs @ Blue Jays ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/14/2025 Final Score: Cubs 1 - 2 Blue Jays ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 77% - 12% Blue Jays (Tie 11%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #BlueJays #BeHereForit #LightsUpLetsGo
55
20
338
56,805
๐Ÿšจ Brewers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Brewers @ Dodgers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 07/20/2025 Final Score: Brewers 6 - 5 Dodgers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 26% - 62% Dodgers (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Dodgers #ThisIsMyCrew #LetsGoDodgers
71
19
329
64,374
๐Ÿšจ Guardians are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Tigers @ Guardians ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 09/23/2025 Final Score: Tigers 2 - 5 Guardians ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Tigers 72% - 13% Guardians (Tie 16%) #MLB #Statcast #Tigers #Guardians #RepDetroit #GuardsBall
37
19
334
60,418
Replying to @suzukiplshomer
The Brewers when they see an opportunity for an unethical win
11
15
326
6,992
๐Ÿšจ Giants are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Giants @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/24/2025 Final Score: Giants 4 - 3 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Giants 7% - 86% Brewers (Tie 7%) #MLB #Statcast #Giants #Brewers #SFGiants #ThisIsMyCrew
23
10
319
22,775
โšพ Brewers @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 10/09/2025 Final Score: Brewers 0 - 6 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 3% - 93% Cubs (Tie 4%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Cubs #ThisIsMyCrew #BeHereForit
13
7
319
14,203
๐Ÿšจ Guardians are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Guardians @ Tigers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 09/16/2025 Final Score: Guardians 7 - 5 Tigers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Guardians 4% - 91% Tigers (Tie 5%) #MLB #Statcast #Guardians #Tigers #GuardsBall #RepDetroit
27
24
316
74,144
๐Ÿšจ Cubs are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Cubs @ White Sox ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 07/27/2025 Final Score: Cubs 5 - 4 White Sox ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 23% - 61% White Sox (Tie 15%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #WhiteSox #BeHereForit
50
13
313
45,098
๐Ÿšจ Blue Jays are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Blue Jays @ Yankees ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 10/08/2025 Final Score: Blue Jays 5 - 2 Yankees ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 37% - 51% Yankees (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Yankees #LightsUpLetsGo #RepBX
59
26
303
57,971
๐Ÿšจ Guardians are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Yankees @ Guardians ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 04/22/2025 Final Score: Yankees 2 - 3 Guardians ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Yankees 51% - 34% Guardians (Tie 15%) #MLB #Statcast #Yankees #Guardians #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimGuardians
38
34
304
33,912
Yankees at Royals (10/10/2024) Actual score: Yankees 3, Royals 1 Deserve-to-win: Yankees 70%, Royals 21%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimRoyals #Baseball #Yankees #Royals
9
13
294
21,740
--------- ALERT --------- Dodgers are luck merchants! Dodgers at Yankees (10/30/2024) Actual score: Dodgers 7, Yankees 6 Deserve-to-win: Dodgers 22%, Yankees 72%, Tie 6% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimDodgers #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Dodgers #Yankees
19
34
275
25,243
Respectfully, Sam. Some of us went to academically rigorous schools, such as Marquette University, so advanced stats might be too much for your Badger brain to compute! ๐Ÿ˜€
Sam Dekker
@dekker
6 Aug 2025
โ€œThey only got on base when the pitchers messed up and barely had any hard hit balls all day. But according to my metrics, they should be crowned victorious.๐Ÿค“โ€. Shut up nerd!
40
4
285
94,453
๐Ÿšจ Reds are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Cubs @ Reds ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 05/24/2025 Final Score: Cubs 4 - 6 Reds ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 95% - 3% Reds (Tie 2%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Reds #MLBSimCubs #MLBSimReds
23
24
277
125,844
๐Ÿšจ Phillies are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Cubs @ Phillies ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/09/2025 Final Score: Cubs 3 - 4 Phillies ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 59% - 29% Phillies (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Phillies #BeHereForit #RingTheBell
22
18
269
28,901
Weekly Luck Update (8/10/25) 1๏ธโƒฃ Wins minus xWins. #Brewers have won 13.8 more games than expected, while #Braves have won 11.8 fewer 2๏ธโƒฃ Lucky games (+1) plus the unlucky games (-1). #Brewers the luckiest (+11) and #Yankees unluckiest (-15) 3๏ธโƒฃ Lucky vs unlucky games #Statcast
27
14
277
46,034
3
10
273
8,785
โšพ Cubs @ Tigers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/06/2025 Final Score: Cubs 1 - 3 Tigers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 12% - 76% Tigers (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Tigers #MLBSimCubs #MLBSimTigers
15
2
265
34,824
๐Ÿšจ Orioles are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Yankees @ Orioles ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 04/30/2025 Final Score: Yankees 4 - 5 Orioles ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Yankees 72% - 21% Orioles (Tie 7%) #MLB #Statcast #Yankees #Orioles #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimOrioles
16
14
270
22,737
๐Ÿšจ Cubs are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Orioles @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/01/2025 Final Score: Orioles 0 - 1 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Orioles 52% - 30% Cubs (Tie 19%) #MLB #Statcast #Orioles #Cubs #Birdland #BeHereForit
41
5
253
28,839
โšพ Cubs @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 10/06/2025 Final Score: Cubs 3 - 7 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 3% - 93% Brewers (Tie 4%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Brewers #BeHereForit #ThisIsMyCrew
6
7
261
22,242
โšพ Brewers @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/19/2025 Final Score: Brewers 4 - 6 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 32% - 55% Cubs (Tie 13%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Cubs #ThisIsMyCrew #BeHereForit
14
6
250
14,713
Yankees at Guardians (10/18/2024) Actual score: Yankees 8, Guardians 6 Deserve-to-win: Yankees 80%, Guardians 13%, Tie 7% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Yankees #Guardians
3
7
240
23,904
๐Ÿšจ Blue Jays are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Brewers @ Blue Jays ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/31/2025 Final Score: Brewers 4 - 8 Blue Jays ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 83% - 10% Blue Jays (Tie 7%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #BlueJays #ThisIsMyCrew #LightsUpLetsGo
24
5
244
20,266
โšพ Cubs @ Blue Jays ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/13/2025 Final Score: Cubs 4 - 1 Blue Jays ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 85% - 7% Blue Jays (Tie 8%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #BlueJays #BeHereForit #LightsUpLetsGo
18
5
235
14,658
โšพ Cubs @ Tigers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/08/2025 Final Score: Cubs 0 - 4 Tigers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 7% - 82% Tigers (Tie 11%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Tigers #MLBSimCubs #MLBSimTigers
6
4
225
18,196
Updated chart sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2025 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Pirates the unluckiest. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 72% of the time #MLB #Statcast #Baseball
24
18
225
82,711
๐Ÿšจ Tigers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Tigers @ Mariners ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 10/04/2025 Final Score: Tigers 3 - 2 Mariners ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Tigers 20% - 68% Mariners (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #Tigers #Mariners #RepDetroit #TridentsUp
47
21
235
39,942
๐Ÿšจ Brewers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Brewers @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/19/2025 Final Score: Brewers 8 - 7 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 30% - 58% Cubs (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Cubs #ThisIsMyCrew #BeHereForit
26
16
227
35,759
๐Ÿšจ Guardians are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Guardians @ Tigers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 05/24/2025 Final Score: Guardians 7 - 5 Tigers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Guardians 39% - 51% Tigers (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #Guardians #Tigers #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimTigers
24
11
217
33,016
๐Ÿšจ Orioles are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Yankees @ Orioles ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 04/28/2025 Final Score: Yankees 3 - 4 Orioles ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Yankees 57% - 31% Orioles (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #Yankees #Orioles #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimOrioles
17
12
219
20,685
โšพ Cubs @ Angels ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/22/2025 Final Score: Cubs 3 - 2 Angels ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 78% - 12% Angels (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Angels #BeHereForit #RepTheHalo
7
5
216
11,971
๐Ÿšจ Orioles are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Orioles @ Yankees ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/20/2025 Final Score: Orioles 5 - 3 Yankees ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Orioles 28% - 60% Yankees (Tie 12%) #MLB #Statcast #Orioles #Yankees #Birdland #RepBX
17
8
214
14,959
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Guardians at Yankees (08/20/2024) Actual score: Guardians 9, Yankees 5 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 16%, Yankees 77%, Tie 7% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Guardians #Yankees
64
21
197
62,712
๐Ÿšจ Cubs are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Braves @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 09/02/2025 Final Score: Braves 3 - 4 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Braves 66% - 20% Cubs (Tie 14%) #MLB #Statcast #Braves #Cubs #BravesCountry #BeHereForit
23
3
206
12,672
โšพ Brewers @ Blue Jays ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/30/2025 Final Score: Brewers 4 - 1 Blue Jays ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 91% - 3% Blue Jays (Tie 6%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #BlueJays #ThisIsMyCrew #LightsUpLetsGo
6
3
194
13,229
The Yankees hit 4 of the 5 barrels in this game, while also having 6 more walks/hbp. They left 11 on base and went 0-6 w/RISP. This Soto flyout is just painful:
3
8
189
22,436
๐Ÿšจ Tigers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Giants @ Tigers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 05/28/2025 Final Score: Giants 3 - 4 Tigers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Giants 87% - 7% Tigers (Tie 6%) #MLB #Statcast #Giants #Tigers #MLBSimGiants #MLBSimTigers
37
5
193
36,905
๐Ÿšจ Cardinals are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Twins @ Cardinals ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 03/27/2025 Final Score: Twins 3 - 5 Cardinals ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Twins 62% - 28% Cardinals (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #Twins #Cardinals #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimCardinals
8
12
191
42,428
โšพ Cubs @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 07/28/2025 Final Score: Cubs 4 - 8 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 5% - 90% Brewers (Tie 5%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Brewers #BeHereForit #ThisIsMyCrew
14
3
188
12,885
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Cubs at Guardians (08/14/2024) Actual score: Cubs 1, Guardians 6 Deserve-to-win: Cubs 47%, Guardians 36%, Tie 17% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimCubs #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Cubs #Guardians
42
10
169
69,793
Yankees at Guardians (10/19/2024) Actual score: Yankees 5, Guardians 2 Deserve-to-win: Yankees 96%, Guardians 2%, Tie 2% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Yankees #Guardians
5
2
177
11,179
๐Ÿšจ Reds are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Yankees @ Reds ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/24/2025 Final Score: Yankees 4 - 5 Reds ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Yankees 82% - 9% Reds (Tie 9%) #MLB #Statcast #Yankees #Reds #RepBX #ATOBTTR
20
10
184
28,165
โšพ Cubs @ Cardinals ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/09/2025 Final Score: Cubs 9 - 1 Cardinals ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 94% - 3% Cardinals (Tie 3%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Cardinals #BeHereForit #STLCards #ForTheLou
4
4
180
13,854
โšพ Pirates @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/17/2025 Final Score: Pirates 3 - 4 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Pirates 8% - 86% Cubs (Tie 6%) #MLB #Statcast #Pirates #Cubs #LetsGoBucs #BeHereForit
10
3
181
12,220
โšพ Braves @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 09/01/2025 Final Score: Braves 6 - 7 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Braves 25% - 65% Cubs (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #Braves #Cubs #BravesCountry #BeHereForit
7
2
179
11,391
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
16
29
165
106,862
In addition to 6 more walks, the Yankees all 6 of the hardest hit balls vs the Guardians. The Yankees were 0-7 w/RIPS and the most likely score was Yankees 12 - Guardians 1. Note: Deserve-to-win % are rounded, so 100% is likely 99.5%
2
1
171
12,613
โšพ Cubs @ Angels ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/24/2025 Final Score: Cubs 4 - 3 Angels ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 53% - 25% Angels (Tie 22%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Angels #BeHereForit #RepTheHalo
8
4
171
10,502
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
6
25
170
27,425
โšพ Brewers @ Yankees ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 03/29/2025 Final Score: Brewers 9 - 20 Yankees ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 0% - 100% Yankees (Tie 0%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Yankees #MLBSimBrewers #MLBSimYankees
5
4
169
8,897
Jazz confirmed Deserve to Win O Meter truther
This tweet is unavailable
1
2
159
25,289
๐Ÿšจ Rangers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Brewers @ Rangers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 09/09/2025 Final Score: Brewers 4 - 5 Rangers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 90% - 6% Rangers (Tie 5%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Rangers #ThisIsMyCrew #AllForTX
8
8
168
17,668
โšพ Brewers @ Cubs ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/21/2025 Final Score: Brewers 4 - 1 Cubs ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Brewers 45% - 43% Cubs (Tie 13%) #MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Cubs #ThisIsMyCrew #BeHereForit
11
4
167
12,982
๐Ÿšจ Braves are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Yankees @ Braves ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 07/18/2025 Final Score: Yankees 3 - 7 Braves ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Yankees 51% - 34% Braves (Tie 16%) #MLB #Statcast #Yankees #Braves #RepBX #BravesCountry
28
12
162
15,554
๐Ÿšจ Rockies are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Rockies @ Rays ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 03/29/2025 Final Score: Rockies 2 - 1 Rays ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Rockies 0% - 99% Rays (Tie 1%) #MLB #Statcast #Rockies #Rays #MLBSimRockies #MLBSimRays
6
17
161
21,085
๐Ÿšจ Royals are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Tigers @ Royals ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 05/31/2025 Final Score: Tigers 0 - 1 Royals ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Tigers 53% - 15% Royals (Tie 32%) #MLB #Statcast #Tigers #Royals #MLBSimTigers #MLBSimRoyals
7
7
158
9,124
--------- ALERT --------- Orioles are luck merchants! Orioles at Yankees (09/25/2024) Actual score: Orioles 9, Yankees 7 Deserve-to-win: Orioles 8%, Yankees 88%, Tie 4% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimOrioles #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Orioles #Yankees
15
18
152
31,906
๐Ÿšจ Twins are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Twins @ Yankees ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/13/2025 Final Score: Twins 4 - 1 Yankees ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Twins 6% - 86% Yankees (Tie 9%) #MLB #Statcast #Twins #Yankees #MNTwins #RepBX
24
8
153
21,765
Replying to @NotFestaFanatic
The year is 2080. The game is played on spreadsheets. The Minnesota Twins just xWON the Galaxy Series against the Mars Rovers
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6
151
2,344
@Pirates
1
153
4,468
Weekly Luck Update (8/3/25) 1๏ธโƒฃ Wins minus xWins. #Brewers have won 10.7 more games than expected, while #Braves have won 11.0 fewer 2๏ธโƒฃ Lucky games (+1) plus the unlucky games (-1). #Brewers the luckiest (+8) and #Yankees unluckiest (-14) 3๏ธโƒฃ Lucky vs unlucky games #Statcast
23
15
152
38,182
โšพ Pirates @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 08/11/2025 Final Score: Pirates 1 - 7 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Pirates 42% - 44% Brewers (Tie 14%) #MLB #Statcast #Pirates #Brewers #LetsGoBucs #ThisIsMyCrew
53
2
149
35,940
Updated chart sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2025 for each team. #Padres so far the luckiest and #Pirates #Rockies the unluckiest. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 72% of the time #MLB #Statcast #Baseball
12
13
147
29,910
โšพ Cubs @ Brewers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 07/29/2025 Final Score: Cubs 3 - 9 Brewers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Cubs 9% - 84% Brewers (Tie 6%) #MLB #Statcast #Cubs #Brewers #BeHereForit #ThisIsMyCrew
8
2
143
9,481
Updated chart sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2025 for each team. #Padres so far the luckiest and #Pirates the unluckiest. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 71% of the time #MLB #Statcast #Baseball
11
9
148
16,794
๐Ÿšจ Twins are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Guardians @ Twins ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 05/19/2025 Final Score: Guardians 5 - 6 Twins ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Guardians 71% - 21% Twins (Tie 8%) #MLB #Statcast #Guardians #Twins #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimTwins
16
11
141
19,250
๐Ÿšจ Red Sox are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Rays @ Red Sox ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/10/2025 Final Score: Rays 1 - 3 Red Sox ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Rays 81% - 8% Red Sox (Tie 10%) #MLB #Statcast #Rays #RedSox #RaysUp #DirtyWater
13
10
143
22,561
๐Ÿšจ Yankees are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Rangers @ Yankees ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 05/21/2025 Final Score: Rangers 3 - 4 Yankees ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Rangers 57% - 35% Yankees (Tie 8%) #MLB #Statcast #Rangers #Yankees #MLBSimRangers #MLBSimYankees
21
3
138
20,726
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Cubs at Guardians (08/12/2024) Actual score: Cubs 8, Guardians 9 Deserve-to-win: Cubs 72%, Guardians 20%, Tie 8% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimCubs #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Cubs #Guardians
17
13
139
75,049
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Guardians at Twins (08/11/2024) Actual score: Guardians 5, Twins 3 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 17%, Twins 74%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimTwins #Baseball #Guardians #Twins
30
13
137
138,340
๐Ÿšจ Yankees are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Padres @ Yankees ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 05/07/2025 Final Score: Padres 3 - 4 Yankees ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Padres 82% - 12% Yankees (Tie 6%) #MLB #Statcast #Padres #Yankees #MLBSimPadres #MLBSimYankees
31
3
144
16,714
๐Ÿšจ Dodgers are luck merchants! ๐Ÿšจ โšพ Mets @ Dodgers ๐ŸŸ๏ธ 06/05/2025 Final Score: Mets 5 - 6 Dodgers ๐Ÿ“Š Deserve-to-Win: Mets 97% - 1% Dodgers (Tie 2%) #MLB #Statcast #Mets #Dodgers #MLBSimMets #MLBSimDodgers
6
12
142
13,103