MacBook models will feature a touch panel for the first time, further blurring the line with the iPad. This shift appears to reflect Apple’s long-term observation of iPad user behavior, indicating that in certain scenarios, touch controls can enhance both productivity and the overall user experience. 1. The OLED MacBook Pro, expected to enter mass production by late 2026, will incorporate a touch panel using on-cell touch technology. 2. The more affordable MacBook model powered by an iPhone processor, slated for mass production in 4Q25, will not support a touch panel. Specifications for its second-generation version, anticipated in 2027, remain under discussion and could include touch support.

My latest survey indicates Foxconn's iPhone production site in India will ship the new 6.1" iPhone 14 almost simultaneously with China for the first time in 2H22 (India being one quarter or more behind in the past).

(1/2) My latest survey indicates that 2H23 new iPhone will abandon Lightning port and switch to USB-C port. USB-C could improve iPhone's transfer and charging speed in hardware designs, but the final spec details still depend on iOS support.

For Elon Musk and Tesla, this represents a valuable opportunity to gain real-world foundry experience at an exceptionally low cost — something TSMC would never allow. It enables Tesla to enhance its chip design capabilities, particularly in manufacturability, while also gaining deeper manufacturing knowledge, which will give them more leverage in future negotiations with foundries. In the long run, Elon Musk's businesses will only demand more advanced chips, so acquiring core manufacturing expertise becomes a strategic advantage. Tesla’s AI6 chip is currently scheduled for mass production in 2027, using Samsung’s 2nm node (SF2). SF2 currently has a yield of 40–45%, lower than TSMC’s N2 (over 70%) and Intel’s 18A (50–55%). Elon Musk's execution is proven, and SF2's adoption of the same GAA technology as SF3 should facilitate mass production. Even so, it's still difficult to predict whether Samsung can successfully ramp AI6 on SF2 as scheduled. If production falls short of expectations, the worst-case scenario for Tesla would be to shift the order back to TSMC and absorb the resulting delays to AI6.. However, Tesla’s edge in real-world AI could significantly reduce the risk of AI6 delays. Regardless, Tesla still gains from enhanced design capabilities and deeper chip manufacturing know-how. As for Samsung — with nothing to lose, why not give it a try? This partnership presents manageable downside and strong upside potential for both sides. If AI6 reaches mass production smoothly, chip design and manufacturing could become a core competitive advantage across Elon Musk’s businesses — enabling greater flexibility and lower costs. While Samsung may not fully catch up with TSMC in advanced nodes, it has at least discovered a new business model that actively involves customers in the manufacturing process.

My industry research indicates the following regarding the new AI hardware device from Jony Ive's collaboration with OpenAI: 1. Mass production is expected to start in 2027. 2. Assembly and shipping will occur outside China to reduce geopolitical risks, with Vietnam currently the likely assembly location. 3. The current prototype is slightly larger than the AI Pin, with a form factor as compact and elegant as an iPod Shuffle. The design and specifications may change before mass production. 4. One of the intended use cases is wearing the device around the neck. 5. It will have cameras and microphones for environmental detection, with no display functionality. 6. It is expected to connect to smartphones and PCs, utilizing their computing and display capabilities. In my view, one of OpenAI's motives for announcing its collaboration with Jony Ive now is likely to shift market focus from recent Google I/O. Google’s ecosystem and AI integration, showcased in the I/O keynotes, pose a challenge that OpenAI currently struggles to address. As a result, OpenAI is leveraging a new narrative to redirect attention. That said, AI integrated into real-world applications, often termed "physical AI," is widely recognized as the next critical trend. While the success of the Jony Ive-OpenAI partnership remains uncertain, it clearly aligns with this trend. This partnership also recalls Alan Kay’s well-known adage: “People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware.”

(1/6) My latest survey indicates that the volume button and power button of two high-end iPhone 15/2H23 new iPhone models may adopt a solid-state button design (similar to the home button design of iPhone 7/8/SE2 & 3) to replace the physical/mechanical button design.

The iPhone 15 Pro series overheating issues are unrelated to TSMC’s advanced 3nm node / iPhone 15 Pro系列的過熱問題，與台積電的3nm製程無關 link.medium.com/qoDsnGfCpDb

Apple M5 series chip 1. The M5 series chips will adopt TSMC’s advanced N3P node, which entered the prototype phase a few months ago. M5, M5 Pro/Max, and M5 Ultra mass production is expected in 1H25, 2H25, and 2026, respectively. 2. The M5 Pro, Max, and Ultra will utilize server-grade SoIC packaging. Apple will use 2.5D packaging called SoIC-mH (molding horizontal) to improve production yields and thermal performance, featuring separate CPU and GPU designs. 3. Apple’s PCC infrastructure build-out will accelerate after the mass production of the high-end M5 chips, better suited for AI inferencing.

Some predictions for the coming new iPhone SE: 1. Mass production in Mar'22. 2. Estimated shipments of 25-30 mn units in 2022. 3. Storage: 64/128/256GB. 4. A15 & 5G support (mmW & Sub-6 GHz). 5. Casing: white, black, and red. 6. Similar form factor design to current SE.

Only two Pro models would upgrade to the A16 processor, while the 14 & 14 Max will remain the A15. All four new models will likely come with 6GB RAM, with the difference being LPDDR 5 (14 Pro & 14 Pro Max) vs. LPDDR 4X (14 & 14 Max).

According to Apple's rules for naming iPhones, the four new 2H22 iPhones could be called iPhone 14 (6.1"), iPhone 14 Max (6.7"), iPhone 14 Pro (6.1”), and iPhone 14 Pro Max (6.7").

Apple employees can already purchase the iPhone 16 with their employee discount. Typically, employees have had to wait several weeks after the release of new iPhone models before being able to buy. This could be another sign that the early demand for the iPhone 16 is below expectations.

Among the 2025 new iPhone models, only the iPhone 17 Pro Max will feature the following specifications: 1. 12GB DRAM (while the ultra-thin iPhone, iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and SE4 will all have 8GB). Enhanced on-device AI capabilities will likely be a major selling point for the iPhone 17 Pro Max. 2. An upgraded cooling system combining vapor chamber (VC) technology and graphite sheets. Other 2025 new iPhone models will continue to use graphite sheets alone for thermal management. Pro Max currently accounts for nearly 40% of new model shipments, making the most significant contribution to Apple's revenue and profit among hardware products. The differentiation strategy of providing the best specifications (beyond a larger display size than Pro) for Pro Max is expected to continue.

華為的歸來對消費者其實是好事，這可以逼迫Apple走出舒適圈並更積極創新。標準版iPhone 15是首款採用堆疊CIS的手機，但如果沒有美國禁令，華為應該會是第一個採用堆疊CIS的手機品牌業者，而且應該會早於2023年。 == Huawei's comeback is actually a good thing for consumers. It can force Apple to step out of its comfort zone and innovate more aggressively. The two standard iPhone 15 models are the first smartphones to adopt stacked CIS. But if there is no US ban, Huawei should be the first smartphone brand to adopt stacked CIS, and it should be earlier than 2023.

(1/3) Apple canceled body temperature measurement for Apple Watch 7 because the algorithm failed to qualify before entering EVT stage last year. I believe Apple Watch 8 in 2H22 could take body temperature if the algorithm can meet Apple's high requirements before mass production.

As I understand it, production of the cheaper Vision Pro has been delayed beyond 2027 for a while now. This means Apple's only new head-mounted display device in 2025 will be the Vision Pro with an upgraded M5 processor. I think what really drove Apple to delay the cheaper Vision Pro is that simply reducing the price wouldn't help create successful use cases. It's similar to the HomePod situation—even after launching the cheaper HomePod mini, Apple's smart speakers failed to become mainstream products.

我沒有說「中國所有iPhone組裝產線停線」。 iPhone在中國有供應全球市場的組裝產線，出口市場包括美國與非美國。 我說的是，位於中國且專門組裝iPhone美國機型的產線停線，不是中國「所有」iPhone組裝產線停線，不是指出口到「非美國」市場的iPhone組裝產線停線，更不是指iPhone零組件產線停線。 每個國家的iPhone都有規格些許差異，所以組裝產線會分開。 4月9日開始課徵中國出口到美國的125%的關稅，當時沒人能預測這狀況會維持多久。在那當下，難道生產iPhone美國機型的組裝線還繼續生產嗎？有誰能承受125%的關稅？如果不能出口，那生產活動還要繼續嗎？ 如果有人去問「專門用來組裝iPhone美國機型的中國產線」是否有停線，得到的答案是4月9日後沒有停線，請記得接著問上述問題。 所有受到關稅影響的產業都是一樣的行動，就算沒有產業研究管道，看很多媒體報導近期出口狀況，應該不難判斷上述問題。 現在美國政府暫時降低來自中國的iPhone整機進口關稅到20%，就算不考慮到接下來的半導體關稅，在實務上，4月9日剛停線 (中國生產iPhone美國機型的組裝產線)，總得花一點點時間確認，是不是真的可以用20%稅率通關，再決定要不要重啟組裝產線吧？ 而且，20%關稅其實很高，難道從145%降到20%後，20%的關稅就突然變得沒有壓力，所以可以立刻重啟組裝產線並出貨到美國也沒關係了？Apple的硬體毛利率平均是30-40%，這20%的關稅對Apple來說沒有壓力？ 另外，如果又提到印度iPhone組裝產線有來急單，那這急單哪裡來？難道是課關稅後，市場需求就突然成長了？當然不是。實際上，就是中國生產iPhone美國機型的組裝產線停線後，把訂單轉移到印度，造成所謂的急單效應，所以從零組件的角度，整體出貨狀況當然看起來沒有異狀。 這篇我就先不寫英文了，因為現在有疑問的都是中文讀者或中文媒體。

I believe M3 series MacBook Pro will be Oct 30th media event's focus. I previously predicted a launch this year is unlikely due to limited 4Q23 shipments (less than 400-500k units in total). If new MBPs launch in Nov-Dec, tight supply will last into 1Q24 unless demand weakens.

(1/10) [Update] Apple has restarted the iPhone SE 4 and will adopt an in-house 5G baseband chip. The significant decline in Qualcomm's Apple orders in the foreseeable future is a foregone conclusion.

Following Qualcomm, Broadcom's Wi-Fi chips will also be replaced by Apple's in-house chips at a faster pace. My latest industry survey indicates that all new 2H25 iPhone 17 models will feature Apple's in-house Wi-Fi chips (vs. only the slim iPhone 17 will adopt Apple's C1 modem chip). Beyond cost reduction, the switch to in-house Wi-Fi chips will enhance connectivity across Apple devices.

最近我多次被詢問蘋果是否計劃在 2025 年或 2026 年量產可折疊 iPhone 或 iPad。我的最新調查顯示，蘋果目前唯一有明確開發時程的可折疊產品，只有配備約20.3"顯示器、並預計在2027年量產的MacBook。 -- Recently, I've received many inquiries about whether Apple plans to mass-produce the foldable iPhone or iPad in 2025 or 2026. My latest survey indicates that currently, Apple's only foldable product with a clear development schedule is the 20.3-inch MacBook, expected to enter mass production in 2027.

先前2024年iPhone出貨的市場共識為2.2-2.25億部，現在已經開始下修，並向我之前預測的2億部靠攏。如果Apple今年無法推出優於市場預期的生成式AI服務，Nvidia的市值將很有可能超越Apple。

Apple Micro LED更新： 1. 我最新的調查指出Apple已經取消了Micro LED Apple Watch的開發計畫，原因在於Apple認為Micro LED並不能顯著提升產品附加價值，加上生產成本過高，不具投資效益。 2. Apple已經遣散了Micro LED開發團隊中大部分的人，目前所有Micro LED相關計畫已無任何能見度。這對希望掌握次世代顯示器技術以提升產品競爭力的Apple來說，無疑是一大挫敗。 3. Osram是Apple的Micro LED獨家晶片供應商。該公司取消與Apple的Micro LED合作，意味著在可見的未來Apple已經沒有量產Micro LED裝置的計畫。

iPhone 16 first weekend pre-order analysis: estimated total sales of about 37 million units; Pro series demand lower than expected link.medium.com/nsSg4ny8UMb

台積電今天的法說，資訊量龐大。 我在先前的計算中，根據美國產能佔比與毛利率，推算美國廠對台積電整體毛利率之影響是減少1.5-2% (推論細節見下面原文)。 但台積電今天的說法是，考慮到美國廠對毛利率的稀釋，長期毛利率展望是維持在53%以上 (vs. 1Q25是58.8%)，負面影響高於我先前的推估，原因在於台積電還考慮了通膨跟關稅造成的成本。 這代表什麼意思？台積電幫大家示範，通膨跟關稅對毛利率潛在的影響該如何計算。如果要把這邏輯套用在其他廠商，還要先考慮到台積電是有能力對客戶漲價的。 開玩笑的講 (但要嚴肅面對)，台積電可能不小心又幫其他公司開法會了。

Apple停止Apple Car開發的討論熱絡，看似一件大事，但全世界沒有一檔股票因為這件事而大漲或大跌 (如果有請提醒我，謝謝)。資金是很老實的，這代表資本市場早就不在意Apple是否要開發Apple Car這件事。 -- There is a lot of discussion about Apple canceling the development of the Apple Car. It seems like a big deal, but no stock in the world has gone up or down as a result (please remind me if it has, thank you). Money is very honest, meaning the stock markets have long since stopped caring whether Apple wants to make the Apple Car.

我對川普政府接下來的半導體關稅政策保守看待，需留意近期半導體股票的風險提升。 川普政府堅信，關稅可以促使製造業回流美國，半導體又是製造業回流政策的最關鍵項目，不難看出川普政府對課徵半導體關稅的態度。 另外，Apple是一個很好的對照案例。Apple冒著得罪中國政府的風險，從川普第一任就開始積極將供應鏈搬離中國，之前還宣布在美國投資5,000億美元，結果還是無法豁免於關稅。做了這麼多，理論上至少不該被一視同仁的接受懲罰。 這時候就可以來檢視以下問題，並推論川普政府對接下來的半導體關稅的可能態度： 1. 非美國的半導體企業，過去數年的去中化努力，有沒有大於Apple？ 2. 非美國的半導體企業，在美國的投資，有沒有大於Apple？ 3. Apple是美國公司。非美國的半導體企業，與美國政府的關係，有沒有勝過Apple？ 以上的問題回答完，可自行判斷川普政府接下來對半導體關稅政策的態度。 我不討論政治跟關稅對錯與否，一切基於事實推論。

Qualcomm will likely be the sole SoC supplier for the Samsung Galaxy S25 (vs. 40% for the S24), as the Exynos 2500 may not ship due to Samsung's lower-than-expected 3nm yield. In addition to the significant increase in supply share, Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 will see a price increase of 25-30%, so that Qualcomm will benefit significantly from the increased share of S25 orders. As TSMC is the exclusive supplier of Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 (using the N3E), TSMC is also expected to benefit significantly from the increase in Qualcomm orders.

From my observations and personal experience, many people buy the Vision Pro and stop using it after just a few tries. If this is a common user case, simply creating a downgraded version with a more affordable price won't solve the problem. -- 我的觀察，許多人 (包括我自身經驗) 買了Vision Pro後，用幾次就沒用了。如果這是普遍的用戶狀況，那這樣的問題不是單純做一個降規低價版就能解決的

Apple will launch a new version of Apple TV that improves cost structure in 2H22. I think that Apple's aggressive strategy of integrating hardware, content, and service amid the recession will help close the gap with its competitors.

Broadcom currently supplies over 300 million Wi-Fi+BT chips (hereafter referred to as Wi-Fi chips) per year to Apple. However, Apple will rapidly reduce its reliance on Broadcom. With new products in 2H25 (e.g., iPhone 17), Apple plans to use its own Wi-Fi chips, which will be made by TSMC's N7 process and support the latest Wi-Fi 7 spec. Apple expects to move nearly all products to in-house Wi-Fi chips within about three years. This move will reduce costs and enhance Apple's ecosystem integration advantages.

台積電新一輪投資美國之深入分析；台積電可說是目前全球非美國企業中，與美國川普政府談判最成功的企業 點擊閱讀 mingchikuo.craft.me/30QOncPF…

近期媒體報導台積電不向Apple要求支付3nm不良品成本與我的理解不同。 客戶向台積電採購晶片，大抵有兩種交易方式，分別是成品採購 (finished goods buy) 與晶圓採購 (wafer buy)。 絕大部分的採購方式都是晶圓採購，因為台積電的良率夠好，好到可以忽視不良品成本。 但Apple是很特別的例子。Apple向來要求台積電提供全球最新先進製程生產服務，因最新的先進製程在生產初期不良品較多，故Apple向來都是採購成品。而台積電也會將絕大部分的不良品成本分攤到每個成品的售價，最好的證明就是每年新款iPhone採用的新處理器成本均顯著增加，而今年的A17也不例外。 == Recent media reports that TSMC is not asking Apple to pay for the cost of defective 3nm chips are different from my understanding. There are two ways that customers buy chips from TSMC: finished goods buy and wafer buy. The vast majority of deals are wafer-buy because TSMC's yields are good enough to ignore the cost of defective chips. But Apple is a special case. Apple has always asked TSMC to provide the world's latest advanced node production services. Because the latest advanced node has many defective chips in the early stage of production, Apple has always purchased finished goods. And TSMC allocates most of the cost of defective chips to the selling price of each finished chip. The best evidence is that the cost of the new processor used in new iPhones increases significantly every year, and this year's A17 is no exception.

1. Portless iPhone may cause more problems due to current limitations of wireless technologies & the immature MagSafe ecosystem. 2. Other Lightning port products (e.g., AirPods, Magic Keyboard/Trackpad/Mouse, MagSafe Battery) would also switch to USB-C in the foreseeable future.

Because Apple isn't very optimistic about the AR/MR headset announcement recreating the astounding "iPhone moment," the mass production schedule for assembly has been pushed back by another 1-2 months to mid-to-late 3Q23. The delay also adds uncertainty to whether the new device will appear at WWDC 2023, as the market widely expects. Furthermore, due to the delay in mass production for assembly, the shipment forecast this year is only 200,000 to 300,000 units, lower than the market consensus of 500,000 units or more. The main concerns for Apple not being very optimistic regarding the market feedback to the AR/MR headset announcement include the economic downturn, compromises on some hardware specifications for mass production (such as weight), the readiness of the ecosystem and applications, a high selling price (USD 3,000-4,000 or even higher), etc. 因為Apple並沒有非常樂觀看待AR/MR頭戴裝置的發布會，能重現一鳴驚人的「iPhone時刻」，故組裝量產時程再度延後1-2個月至3Q23中後期，而這也為該新裝置能否如市場期待般在WWDC 2023亮相增添了變數。也是因為組裝量產時程延後，故今年出貨量僅為20-30萬部，低於市場共識的50萬部或以上。 Apple沒有非常樂觀看待市場對AR/MR頭戴裝置發佈會的反應之主要顧慮包括經濟低迷、為追求量產故對部份硬體規格妥協 (如重量)、生態與應用準備程度與售價高 (3,000-4,000美元或甚至更高) 等。

iPhone 17 Series First-Weekend Preorder Takeaways: 1. Conclusion: First-weekend preorder demand for the iPhone 17 lineup outpaced last year’s iPhone 16. 2. For the Pro Max, Pro, and standard models, planned 3Q25 production is about 25% higher YoY, while estimated delivery lead times are only ~1 week longer, suggesting stronger combined preorder demand across these three models. 3. The iPhone Air is available in stock at launch, which on the surface looks softer than the iPhone 16 Plus last year (2 weeks delivery time). However, the Air’s 3Q25 build plan is roughly 3x (~+200% YoY) that of the 16 Plus in 3Q24, and there’s no direct historical analog for its positioning in the lineup. A fair assessment of demand will require observing sell-through over a longer period. 4. The Pro Max remains the demand leader. 3Q25 production builds for the iPhone 17 Pro Max are up roughly 60% YoY vs. 16 Pro Max, yet delivery lead times are similar. 5. The iPhone 17’s stronger preorders should support Apple’s 3Q25 results, but the boost to supplier share prices may be limited, as investors remain focused on the step-change product cycle expected to begin next year and the potential benefits for the supply chain.

In terms of profitability, it's way better for Apple to take the hit of a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US market than to move iPhone assembly lines back to US. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT…

Apple將積極升級硬體產品規格以建構更有競爭力的Vision Pro生態 1. Vision Pro的成功關鍵之一在於生態，當中包括能否與其他Apple硬體產品整合，而與此相關的主要硬體規格為Wi-Fi與UWB。 2. iPhone 15採用的UWB將規格升級，生產製程由16nm升級到更先進的7nm，有利近距離互動的效能提升或降低耗電。 3. iPhone 16可能將升級至Wi-Fi 7，更有利Apple整合同一區域網路下的硬體產品並提供更好生態體驗。 -- Apple will aggressively upgrade hardware specifications to build a more competitive ecosystem for Vision Pro 1. The ecosystem is one of the key success factors for Vision Pro, including the integration with other Apple hardware products, and related main hardware specifications are Wi-Fi and UWB. 2. iPhone 15 will likely see an specification upgrade of UWB, with the production process moving from 16nm to more advanced 7nm, allowing for improved performance or reduced power consumption for nearby Interactions. 3. iPhone 16 will likely upgrade to Wi-Fi 7, which will be more conducive to Apple's integration of hardware products running on the same local network and provide a better ecosystem experience.

I'm curious whether Elon Musk still thinks there are security issues with Apple integrating LLMs from other companies if Apple devices can also support Grok.

My take: the iPhone Air is one of those products that doesn’t look compelling on paper, but the in-store, hands-on experience is likely what sells it.

(1/5) My latest survey indicates that Apple will likely cancel or postpone the mass production plan for the 2024 iPhone SE 4. I think this is due to the consistently lower-than-expected shipments of mid-to-low-end iPhones (e.g., SE 3, 13 mini, and 14 Plus),

看起來到今年年底前，Apple應該都不會發售新款的MacBook (配備M3系列處理器) 機型了 == It seems that Apple will not launch new MacBook models (equipped with M3 series processors) before the end of this year.

(1/3) 1. Qualcomm will likely be the sole processor supplier for Samsung Galaxy S23 (vs. 70% shipment proportion for S22) thanks to the next flagship 5G chip SM8550 made by TSMC 4nm.

Apple would release a new version of HomePod in 4Q22-1Q23, and there may not be much innovation in hardware design. Smart speakers are undoubtedly one of the essential elements of the home ecosystem, but I think Apple is still figuring out how to succeed in this market.

(1/2) The front camera of four new iPhone 14 models in 2H22 would likely upgrade to AF (autofocus) & about f/1.9 aperture (vs. iPhone 13's FF (fixed-focus) and f/2.2).

今年年底前不大可能有新款iPad。 -- New iPad models are unlikely before the year's end.

I predict Apple will launch USB-C-capable charging cases for all AirPods models in 2023. However, the charging case of the new AirPods Pro 2 launched in 2H22 may still support Lightning.

Predictions for Apple's new desktop products: 1. 2022: More powerful Mac mini and more affordable external display (27-inch without mini-LED). 2. 2023: Mac Pro and iMac Pro.

It implies that Apple is trying to reduce the geopolitical impacts on supply and sees the Indian market as the next key growth driver.

近期與投資人討論2023 WWDC的重點： 1. 若Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置發布成功，將對3D交互設計與3D電腦圖像帶來巨大影響 (猶如ChatGPT對AI/AIGC)。 2. 長期而言，Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置的成功關鍵因素在於能否與AI/AIGC高度整合。 3. 投資人近期對Apple何時推出類似ChatGPT服務的關注度，高於Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置。 4. 若Apple在WWDC發佈AIGC服務，投資人認為有助與延續目前的AI投資情緒。若Apple的AIGC服務需要較高硬體規格，則有機會帶動硬體換機潮。 5. 在Nvidia提出擊敗市場共識的2Q財測後，與AI相較，投資人明顯對未來2年內可能仍難對供應商有顯著營收與利潤貢獻的Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置興趣降低。 6. 不過，若Apple的AR/MR頭戴裝置發布能顯著優於市場預期，加上2H23新款iPhone、Apple Watch與Mac大量出貨並推升營收與利潤，預期仍能有利Apple與關鍵供應商的股價。 -- Takeaways from recent discussions with investors on WWDC 2023: 1. If Apple's AR/MR headset device announcement is successful, it will immensely impact 3D interaction design and 3D computer graphics (like ChatGPT has on AI/AIGC). 2. In the long-term, one of the key success factors of Apple's AR/MR headset is whether it can integrate highly with AI/AIGC. 3. Investors have recently been more interested in when Apple will launch ChatGPT-like services than Apple's AR/MR headset device. 4. If Apple unveils its AIGC service at WWDC, investors believe it will help continue the current AI investment sentiment. If Apple's AIGC service requires higher hardware specifications, it could lead to a hardware replacement demand. 5. Investors are less interested in Apple's AR/MR headset device, which may not be a substantial revenue and profit contributor for suppliers in the next two years compared to AI, after Nvidia's marked better-than-expected Q2 guidance. 6. However, if the announcement of Apple's AR/MR headset device can significantly beat market expectations, coupled with new iPhone, Apple Watch, and Mac shipments that boost revenues and profits in 2H23, it could still benefit Apple and key supplier stocks.

Apple is exploring both humanoid and non-humanoid robots for its future smart home ecosystem, and these products are still in the early proof-of-concept (POC) stage internally. While the industry debates the merits of humanoid vs. non-humanoid designs, supply chain checks indicate Apple cares more about how users build perception with robots than their physical appearance (so Apple uses anthropomorphic instead of humanoid), implying sensing hardware and software serve as the core technologies. The timeline from POC to formal kick-off varies. Given current progress and typical development cycles, Apple's robot mass production likely won't start until 2028 or later. Interestingly, Apple has been unusually open about sharing some of its robotics research during the early POC stage—possibly to attract talent. People often hear about stages like NPI, EVT, and MP when discussing Apple’s product development, but POC tends to fly under the radar. Essentially, POC is Apple's testing ground, verifying whether product ideas and core technologies are viable before formal kick-off. Apple's rumored foldable phone is currently in the POC stage. However, many projects never progress beyond POC—the Apple Car is probably the most notable example of a project that got stuck at this stage.

iPhone Air demand has fallen short of expectations, leading the supply chain to begin scaling back both shipments and production capacity. Most suppliers are expected to reduce capacity by more than 80% by 1Q26, while some components with longer lead times are expected to be discontinued by the end of 2025. This indicates that the existing Pro series and standard models already cover the majority of high-end user demand well, leaving little room to carve out new market segments and positioning — as previous attempts with the mini, Plus, and now Air models have all failed to gain traction.

(2/2) It's expected to see existing USB-C-related suppliers of Apple's ecosystem (e.g., IC controller, connector) become the market's focus in the next 1-2 years, thanks to vast orders from iPhones and accessories' adoption of USB-C ports.

重申我半年前的預測：2H26新款iPhone (iPhone 18) 處理器將使用台積電的2奈米技術。 順道一提，台積電的2nm研發試產良率在3個多月前就達到60-70%以上，現在則是已經遠在這之上。

2025新款iPhone中，僅iPhone 17 Pro Max配備以下規格： 1. 12GB DRAM (超薄iPhone、iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro與SE4均為8GB)。故可預期更強的裝置端AI將為iPhone 17 Pro Max主要賣點。 2. 散熱規格升級，配備VC (vapor chamber) 與石墨片的組合方案。其餘2025新款iPhone均繼續配備石墨片。 目前Pro Max佔新機出貨接近40%，在硬體產品中對Apple的營收與利潤貢最為顯著，讓Pro Max配備最強規格 (不僅是螢幕尺寸大於Pro) 的差異化策略可望延續下去。

全球股市僅台股的AI股還在創新高，美國 (服務、軟體、IC設計、組裝與品牌)、中國 (模組、CPO與組裝)、日本 (台積電上游設備與材料) 與韓國 (記憶體) 股市的AI股近期大多都已開始修正。 1. AI伺服器供應鏈與PC供應鏈高度重疊，台灣為全世界PC/伺服器研發與製造重鎮，故台股為PC/伺服器供應鏈因AI伺服器成長爆發而評價上修的最大受益者。 2. 台股中受益於AI伺服器的主要產業包括：IC設計、晶圓代工/CoWoS、CPO、組裝、PCB/CCL、散熱、電源 (PSU)、機殼與品牌。 3. AI加速晶片/GPU在3Q23、2H23與2024的出貨成長分別約50% QoQ、75% HoH與230% YoY，若本週CSP業者的法說有提供AI伺服器資本支出相關資訊，且能大致符合甚至超越上述出貨成長趨勢，則可能有利AI股近期表現。 == Only AI stocks in Taiwan stock market are still hitting new highs in the global stock market. Most of the AI stocks in the U.S. (services, software, IC design, assembly, and brand), China (modules, CPO, and assembly), Japan (TSMC upstream equipment and materials), and South Korea (memory) stock markets have recently started to correct. 1. The AI server supply chain is highly overlapping with the PC supply chain. Taiwan is the center of PC/server R&D and manufacturing in the world. Therefore, Taiwan stock market is the biggest beneficiary of the re-rating of the PC/server supply chain due to the explosive growth of AI servers. 2. The main sectors benefiting from AI servers in Taiwan stock market include IC design, foundry/CoWoS, CPO, assembly, PCB/CCL, thermal system, PSU (power supply unit), chassis, and brand. 3. The shipment growth of AI accelerator chip/GPU in 3Q23, 2H23, and 2024 is about 50% QoQ, 75% HoH, and 230% YoY, respectively. If this week's CSP (cloud service provider) vendor earnings can provide information on AI server Capex, and can roughly meet or even exceed the above shipment growth trend, it may be beneficial for the recent performance of AI stocks.

Apple Vision Series and Smart Glasses Roadmap (2025–2028): Smart Glasses Set to Drive the Next Wave in Consumer Electronics Full story: mingchikuo.craft.me/b4ueOLIj…

In the short term, India's iPhone capacities/shipments still have a considerable gap with China, but it's an important milestone for Apple in building a non-Chinese iPhone production site.

Apple Watch Series 3 may go to end-of-life (EOL) in 3Q22 because the computing power can’t meet the requirements of the new watchOS.

對Elon Musk與Tesla，這是一個很好的機會，能用極低的成本實際參與晶圓代工業務 （台積電不可能允許這種要求)。這能提升晶片設計的能力 (特別在量產性方面)，且因更熟悉製造know-how也有未來利對晶圓廠的議價力。未來Elon Musk的旗下事業，只會使用更多更先進的晶片，長期來看，掌握更多晶片製造的核心技術是一種策略優勢。 Tesla AI6晶片目前預計在2027量產，將採用Samsung的2奈米 (SF2) 先進製程。SF2目前的良率40-45%，低於台積電N2的70%以上與Intel 18A的50-55%。Elon Musk的執行力無庸置疑，且SF2因採用與SF3相同的GAA技術故有利量產，但即便如此，還是很難預測Samsung能否用SF2順利如期量產AI6。 如果AI6生產不如預期，對Tesla最壞的狀況就是將訂單轉回台積電並承受AI6延期帶來的影響，但Tesla在真實世界AI的優勢應可顯著降低AI6延期的風險，且Elon Musk與Tesla仍可受惠於提升晶片設計能力與晶圓製造know-how。對Samsung來說，反正最壞就現在這樣，也不會更差，因此不仿一試。所以這樣的合作，對雙方來說都是風險可控，而一但成功雙方都會顯著受益。 若AI6能順利量產，則晶片設計與製造將是Elon Musk旗下事業未來的核心競爭優勢 (更彈性規劃且成本更低)。Samsung不見得能在先進製程全面追趕台積電，但至少也找出了讓客戶參與製造的新商業模式。

Nvidia投資Intel 50億美元之產業趨勢重點分析 1, Nvidia與Intel合作有望定義AI PC並加速其發展 對Nvidia而言，自行開發Windows on ARM處理器的不確定性高；對 Intel 而言，要在GPU領域快速提升競爭力難度高。兩者合作（CPU＋GPU）可望在PC生態中形成強綜效與優勢。 2. 在 x86／中低階／推論用 AI 伺服器上也具高綜效 企業自建x86／中低階／推論用的AI伺服器為未來關鍵趨勢。Intel擁有 x86伺服器企業客戶與通路資源；Nvidia具備技術優勢 (AI晶片、NVLink、CUDA等)。若雙方高度整合技術與銷售優勢，將有機會顯著受惠於龐大的潛在需求。 3. 台積電：先進製程與AI晶片訂單數年內不受影響，主要觀察PC、GPU、x86伺服器與網通客戶的市佔與訂單變化，但整體而言風險可控 (1) 台積電先進製程優勢可望至少維持至2030年，Nvidia與Intel合作不易改變此趨勢。 (2) AI晶片需最先進製程，台積電的AI晶片訂單不受影響。 (3) 此投資未來可能改變Nvidia與Intel的競爭者之市佔 (如AMD的PC、GPU與x86伺服器晶片、Broadcom的網通晶片等)，進而影響台積電的訂單。但考量到Nvidia與Intel仍將持續在台積電投片，網通產品沒有用到最先進的製程故對台積電貢獻較低，因此整體而言風險可控。

AirTag, which has not received much attention, has gradually grown in shipments since its release. Shipment estimations of AirTag reach about 20 mn & 35 mn units in 2021 & 2022, respectively. If AirTag shipments continue to grow, I believe Apple will develop the 2nd generation.

(1/2) It still takes some time before Apple AR/MR headset enters mass production, so I don't think Apple will release AR/MR headset and rumored realityOS at WWDC this year. Apple's competitors worldwide can't wait to see the hardware spec and OS design for Apple's AR/MR headset.

Apple is testing E Ink's Electronic Paper Display (EPD) for future foldable device's cover screen & tablet-like applications. The color EPD has the potential to become a mainstream solution for foldable devices' must-have cover/second screen thanks to its excellent power-saving.

New 14" and 16" MacBook Pro with new processors will enter mass production in 4Q22. Given TSMC's guidance that the 3nm will contribute revenue starting in 1H23, processors of 14" and 16" MacBook Pro models may still adopt the 5nm advanced node.

(1/5) Due to strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models, my latest survey indicates that Apple has asked Hon Hai to switch the production lines of the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 14 Pro models, which will help improve Apple's product mix/iPhone ASP in 4Q22.

The Apple Car project team has been dissolved for some time. The reorganization within the next three to six months is necessary to achieve the goal of mass production by 2025.

2024 iPhone shipments likely to decline significantly by about 15% YoY due to structural challenges / iPhone 2024出貨量在可能因結構性挑戰而將顯著衰退約15% YoY link.medium.com/uswSuR2GMGb

(1/4) [Company Update] Qualcomm (QCOM.O) My latest survey indicates that Apple's own iPhone 5G modem chip development may have failed, so Qualcomm will remain exclusive supplier for 5G chips of 2H23 new iPhones, with a 100% supply share (vs. company's previous estimate of 20%).

I heard the same thing too. Apple Has Discussed Using Vision Pro for Mental Health Diagnosis, Treatment theinformation.com/articles/… That's why I said in my earlier post, "By integrating Vision Pro with the Apple Watch, I believe it can create an unparalleled and innovative health management experience" (read: nitter.app/mingchikuo/statu…). Changes in heart rate (Heart Rate Variability, or HRV) have been linked to several mental health conditions. Wearing the Apple Watch and Vision Pro together could potentially offer an innovative treatment for mental health conditions (e.g., depression, anxiety).

Apple will produce 60,000 to 80,000 units of Vision Pro for the February 2 release. Since the shipment is not large, I believe that Vision Pro will sell out soon after the release. Although Apple has not clearly defined the product positioning and key applications of Vision Pro and the price is not cheap, the user experience (e.g., giving users the illusion that they can control the user interface with their minds) created by the groundbreaking technology innovations, along with the base of core fans and heavy users, should make it easy to sell out after the release. -- Apple預計在Vision Pro開賣前準備約6-8萬台，因數量不多故我認為在開賣後會很快銷售一空。 Apple雖然目前沒有清楚指出Vision Pro的產品定位與關鍵功能，且面臨售價不便宜的質疑，但憑藉劃時代的技術創新所創造的用戶體驗 (如：會給人可以用意念控制用戶界面的錯覺)，以及Apple核心粉絲與重度用戶的數量，發售後應該很容易銷售一空。

Apple硬體組裝主要在中國 (比重最高，85-90%)、印度與越南，在Trump政府頒布新關稅政策後，自中國、印度與越南出口到美國的硬體產品成本將顯著提高 （關稅分別是54%、26%與46%)，若Apple不漲價，則整體毛利率估計顯著減少約8.5-9%。 2025年全球iPhone至少15%在印度製造 (vs. 2024年的10-12%)。因中國不大可能對Trump政府讓利以換取關稅豁免，故若印度與越南能與美國政府達成新協議並被豁免關稅，則Apple在不漲價下，整體毛利率可改善至減少約5.5-6%。 在印度政府能爭取豁免關稅的前提下，若Apple能順利擴產印度iPhone產能並將全球供應比重提高到30%以上，則關稅對Apple的毛利率負面影響將大幅改善至降低1-3%。 幾個重要結論： 1. 印度與越南向美國爭取關稅豁免機率遠高於中國，雖很難預測此事何時發生，但仍不影響Apple或將加速把組裝訂單移出中國，直至非中國組裝可滿足絕大部分美國市場。 2. 新關稅政策對Apple無疑是負面影響，但Apple並非無計可施。在美國市場，新款高階iPhone佔比65-70%，而高階用戶相對能接受Apple漲價。此外，Apple有許多方式可轉嫁關稅成本，以降低消費者對漲價的負面觀感，如與電信運營商合作提高補貼金額、降低Trade In換購方案折扣等。 3. Apple另一個降低關稅負面影響的方式是加大對供應鏈的砍價力道。預期大部分的Apple供應鏈將面臨更大的砍價壓力。 4. 綜合上述1-3，如果Apple的毛利率因關稅而滑落至40%以下，這應該是暫時的現象，長期應該還是能維持40%以上。 5. 更為重要的是，中長期需注意Trump政府的新關稅政策對宏觀經濟的潛在負面影響，因爲更弱的消費者信心與購買能力會延長Apple的換機週期。

Apple Micro LED update: 1. My latest survey indicates that Apple has canceled the Micro LED Apple Watch projects because Apple thinks that Micro LED can’t add significant value to this product, and the production costs are too high to make it economically viable. 2. Apple has laid off many people from the Micro LED development team. There’s currently no visibility on any Micro LED-related projects. It’s undoubtedly a major setback for Apple, which hopes to own the next generation of display technology to make its products more competitive. 3. Osram was Apple’s exclusive LED chip supplier for Micro LED. The company’s cancellation of its Micro LED collaboration with Apple means that Apple has no plans to mass-produce Micro LED devices in the foreseeable future.

Predictions for new MacBook Air in 2022: 1. Mass production in late 2Q22 or 3Q22 2. Processor: M1 chip 3. No mini-LED display 4. All-new form factor design 5. More color options

The development of the Apple Car seems to have lost all visibility at the moment. If Apple doesn't adopt an acquisition strategy to enter the automotive market, I doubt that the Apple Car can go into mass production within the next years. -- Apple Car的開發目前看起來已經失去任何能見度。如果Apple不用併購策略進入汽車市場，我懷疑Apple Car能否在數年內進入量產。

I previously predicted iPhones would support under-display fingerprint sensing/Touch ID in 2023 at the earliest. But the latest survey indicates new iPhones in 2023 & 2024 may not adopt under-display Touch ID. Face ID with a mask on iPhone is already a great biometrics solution.

大立光是iPhone 15 Pro Max出貨的救世主；四重反射稜鏡鏡頭單價顯著提升20%以上 / Largan is the savior of iPhone 15 Pro Max shipments; the unit price of tetraprism lens increases significantly by more than 20% link.medium.com/6eGAhzHncDb

預測更新： 1. Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置的大量出貨時間為4Q23底或2024年初 (vs. 先前預期的3Q23)。 2. 2023年的出貨量可能將低於市場預期。不過，對投資人而言，現在的觀察重點已非出貨量，而是新產品發布能否說服人Apple的AR/MR頭戴裝置是下一個消費電子的明星產品。 -- Forecast updates: 1. Mass shipments of Apple's AR/MR headset device are now expected to begin in late 4Q23 or early 2024 (vs. 3Q23 previously). 2. Shipments in 2023 are likely to be lower than the market consensus. However, the focus for investors now is not on shipments but on whether the new product announcement will convince people that Apple's AR/MR headset device is the next star in consumer electronics.

Two iPhone 15 Pro models’ removal of solid-state button design negatively affects Cirrus Logic and AAC / 兩款iPhone 15 Pro取消固態按鍵設計不利Cirrus Logic與瑞聲科技 link.medium.com/mD6HenHsVyb

Apple may release its next GaN charger in 2022, which supports about 30W and has a new form factor design.

Apple’s 4Q23 iPhone revenue and profit will likely be better than expected and easily achieve YoY growth based on early iPhone 15 sales results survey/ 從iPhone 15 初期銷售結果調查來看，Apple 4Q23的iPhone營收與利潤可望將優於預期與輕易實現YoY成長 link.medium.com/3A3UIFZXiDb

(1/2) I believe Apple will create more differentiation between iPhone 15 Pros and iPhone 15 standard models to increase Pro shipment allocation and the new iPhone ASP.

預期2H25 iPhone 17系列的動態島大小幾乎沒什改變 I expect the Dynamic Island size to remain largely unchanged across the 2H25 iPhone 17 series

AirPods 3 orders for 2-3Q22 have been cut by 30%+. Due to the failed product segmentation strategy, demand for AirPods 3 is significantly weaker than for AirPods 2. AirPods Pro may get discontinued after Apple launches AirPods Pro 2 in 2H22 to avoid repeating the same mistake.

iPhone Air需求低於預期，供應鏈已經開始降低出貨與產能。供應鏈的產能普遍到1Q26會縮減80%以上，部分出貨前置時間較長的零組件，預計在2025年底前停產。這意味著既有的Pro系列與標準版機型，已經很好得涵蓋了大部分的高階用戶需求，很難再找到新的市場區隔與定位 (從mini、Plus到至今Air的嘗試都沒有成功)。

(1/2) I predict Apple's next important acoustic product refresh time is will be in 2H24-1H25. The following new products will likely start mass production in 2H24 at the earliest. 1. HomePod mini 2. 2. AirPods Max 2. 3. AirPods low-cost version.

Briefly looking back at the predictions I made on specs and details for Apple’s new products—from several months to a little over a year ago—the vast majority have proven to be accurate or very close. 1. iPhone Air — Most of my calls were spot-on or very close, including design goals, resolution, thickness, eSIM-only support, and frame material. (~8 and ~14 months ago): nitter.app/mingchikuo/status/1816… nitter.app/mingchikuo/status/1877… 2. Apple Watch (2025) — Beyond the routine model refreshes, I said the 2025 lineup would include an Ultra 3 and an updated SE (~12 months ago): nitter.app/mingchikuo/status/1833… 3. iPhone 17 Dynamic Island — Even with some market rumors that the camera's adoption of metalens would shrink the Dynamic Island, I predicted the Dynamic Island size to remain largely unchanged across the 2H25 iPhone 17 series (~8 months ago): nitter.app/mingchikuo/status/1816… 4. iPhone 17 RAM — Three iPhone 17 models would come with 12GB of RAM (~5 months ago): nitter.app/mingchikuo/status/1915…

從供應鏈角度，快速看一下OpenAI預計要自2H26開始部署1 GW的AMD MI450這件事，以及對Nvidia的影響： 1. 過去兩週AMD的2026年的CoWoS訂單無顯著變化。 2. 部署1 GW的AMD MI450約等於5萬片CoWoS-L。目前AMD的2026年的CoWoS訂單推估6-8萬片 (約80-90%用於MI400系列)，故無論是樂觀或謹慎版本都可滿足佈建1 GW MI450需求。 3. 受惠AMD的OpenAI訂單，初步看比較明顯的是HBM與UALink供應鏈。MI450 HBM4主要供應商是Samsung；完整的UALink規格雖要到2027年的MI500系列才能量產，但高訂單能見度會讓相關供應商股價先反應 (如Astera Labs)。 4. 從Nvidia做機櫃等級伺服器的痛苦經驗看，部署1 GW的MI450過程應該也不會太輕鬆。Nvidia能做的就是在AMD的機櫃等級伺服器順利出貨前，盡可能把競爭格局提升到另一個層次，確保接下來的優勢，而很明顯的，Nvidia也早就在做了，只要AI算力市場整體是成長的，OpenAI與AMD合作這件事，對Nvidia影響應該有限。

(1/2) I believe Apple's AR/MR headset shipping date will postpone to 2Q23 (vs. 1Q23 of market consensus) because Shanghai lockdown interrupts the development. As expected, there were no clues for AR/MR headset at WWDC 2022. Here is my prediction for Apple AR/MR headset schedule.

(1/6) Apple's global supply chain management strategy continues to change in response to the de-globalization trend, mainly to reduce the assembly business in China. Here are the latest major survey updates.

目前已有Apple員工可用員工折扣購買iPhone 16。過往新款iPhone發售後，員工通常需等待數週才能購買，這可能是另一個iPhone 16初期需求低於預期的徵兆。

The iPhone shipment decline in China is higher than expected. Due to labor protests last November, the Zhengzhou iPhone factory shipped about 12 million fewer iPhone 14 Pro & Pro Max units, resulting in a lower revenue baseline for 4Q22. Nonetheless, Apple predicted its 4Q23 revenue to be similar to 4Q22, suggesting that Apple's 4Q23 momentum is weaker than expected, primarily due to a decline in iPhone demand in the Chinese market. Looking ahead to 2024, the downward trend for the iPhone in China will continue, indicating a structural change in the Chinese smartphone market due to Huawei's return. -- iPhone在中國市場的出貨衰退高於預期。 鄭州iPhone工廠在去年11月因工人抗爭事件而少出貨共約1,200萬部的iPhone 14 Pro & Pro Max，導致4Q22營收基期較低。 然而，Apple預期4Q23營收與4Q22相似，意味著Apple的4Q23動能比預期弱，主因是iPhone在中國市場的需求衰退。展望2024年，iPhone在中國市場的出貨衰退仍會持續，代表中國手機市場因華為歸來的確有了結構性改變。

Apple is likely to release Vision Pro outside the U.S. market before WWDC 2024 / Apple可能在WWDC 2024前，於美國以外市場發售Vision Pro link.medium.com/eRmexmIkpGb

iPhone 15首週末預購觀察 / Thoughts on the iPhone 15 first weekend pre-order link.medium.com/Ceb5qEFFaDb

My latest supply chain survey indicates that Apple's in-house 5G chip shipments will grow rapidly and replace Qualcomm's 5G chips. It's estimated that Apple's in-house 5G chip shipments will reach 35-40 million units in 2025, 90-110 million in 2026, and 160-180 million in 2027. This trend will significantly impact Qualcomm's 5G chip shipments and licensing sales. -- 我最新的供應鏈調查指出，Apple自家5G晶片出貨量將快速成長並取代Qualcomm的5G晶片。Apple自家5G晶片預計在2025、2026與2027年分別出貨3,500-4,000萬、9,000萬-1.1億與1.6-1.8億顆。這對Qualcomm的5G晶片出貨與授權金營收將有顯著影響。

With 85-90% of Apple's hardware assembly based in China and the rest in India and Vietnam, the Trump administration's new tariff policies—imposing 54%, 26%, and 46%, respectively—will significantly raise costs for hardware exports to the US. If Apple keeps prices unchanged, its overall gross margin could significantly drop by an estimated 8.5-9%. By 2025, at least 15% of global iPhone production is expected to shift to India (up from 10-12% in 2024). Given China’s unlikely concessions to the Trump administration for tariff exemptions, Apple could reduce the gross margin hit to 5.5-6% without raising prices if India and Vietnam secure tariff waivers through new US agreements. If India secures tariff exemptions and Apple boosts its iPhone production capacity there to over 30% of the global supply, the negative impact on gross margins could shrink dramatically to just 1-3%. Key Conclusions: 1. India and Vietnam are far more likely than China to secure US tariff exemptions. Though the timeline is unclear, this would speed up Apple’s shift of assembly orders away from China until non-Chinese production can satisfy most US demand. 2. While the new tariff policies undoubtedly negatively impact Apple, the company has multiple options against it. In the US market, high-end iPhones account for 65-70% of new model sales, and high-end consumers are relatively more accepting of price increases. Apple could also use many strategies like increasing carrier subsidies or cutting Trade-In program discounts to offset tariff costs while softening the perception of price hikes. 3. Apple could also offset tariff impacts by squeezing its supply chain, putting greater pressure on most suppliers to cut costs. 4. Even if tariffs push Apple’s gross margin below 40%, this dip should be short-lived, with long-term margins likely staying above 40%, given the strategies above. 5. More critically, the medium- to long-term focus should be on the potential macroeconomic fallout from the Trump administration’s new tariff policies, as weaker consumer confidence and purchasing power could lengthen Apple’s device replacement cycles.

iPhone 15 updates / iPhone 15更新 link.medium.com/my6UAtAxGCb

The processors for 2025 iPhone 17 models will be made by TSMC's N3P process/3-nanometer technology. The processor for 2026 iPhone 18 models is anticipated to use TSMC's 2-nanometer technology. However, due to cost concerns, not all new iPhone 18 models may be equipped with a 2-nanometer processor.

新聞稿沒說清楚的是，在美國生產第一片Nvidia Blackwell晶圓後，接著還是需要運送到台灣做CoWoS封裝，Blackwell晶片生產才算完成。兩年後的今天，如果能在美國開始先進封裝，進度已算超預期。 blogs.nvidia.com/blog/tsmc-b…

(1/2) My latest channel checks suggest that Apple has not changed the shipping plan for the iPhone 14 models since the Shanghai lockdown. iPhone 14 Max is running behind, but it's still under control currently, and suppliers can work overtime to catch up with the schedule.