Interesting take, one that I would say is definitely on the cautious optimism side of things - the other is that Russia will consolidate and slowly advance around Kyiv, Mikolaiv and Kharkiv, choking off N,S & W parts of Ukraine and hold key supply routes, going for siege tactics.
🧵I talked with an Estonian analyst who has access to info and who I regard as one of the best we have here. His main conclusion: "The danger is far from over but there is reason for a very cautious optimism. Russian advance has clearly stalled." More below: