Polling, research, consultancy. Business owner. Father and Celtic STH
Edinburgh/North Stand Upper
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Very excited to say that yesterday we re-branded - new brand, new logo, new look, new ideas-same passion and commitment to what we do
New website below-do have a look and get in touch 👇👍
And a big thanks to the support, wisdom (and business) to so many!
diffleypartnership.co.uk/
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Sorry but why is the Djokovic situation ‘an embarrassment for Australia’ as the BBC news just claimed? Why should they feel embarrassed for standing up to an entitled millionaire who thinks he can subvert the rules?
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Remembering that on his first day in Glasgow (Aug 21) I bumped into Joe Hart in a restaurant (Covid restrictions hence weird pic). Good chat and v friendly. After Joe left a waiter turned up with 2 pints for us and said ‘These are from the guy who just left’ What a gent! ☘️💚
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As much as I understand political point scoring, trying to equate temporarily forgetting to put on a mask with the serial holding of boozy parties during lockdown is pretty desperate
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Glasgow, 2021 - scores of men chanting racist songs in public without fear of arrest - disgraceful. Really really sick of these people now. If they aren't smashing up the city and attacking churches they are doing this. Utter dregs of our society
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Moved here (Scotland) from London 19 years ago. Have Scottish weans, support a Scottish team with all my heart (and a season ticket), started my own business here - but still don't quite get the pleasure folk get from seeing England lose at sport.
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Whether you agree with the FM's politics or not, or with decisions made on Covid or not, it's days like today that you appreciate the sheer feat of endurance and the level of detail she needs to be across - a thankless task and a huge level of commitment required and given
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20 years i have lived in Scotland and have never experienced this - never felt more Scottish, 🏴
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I really dislike being massively critical of others but reading an article which blames Catholic schools for the racist behaviour at the weekend makes me pretty angry. It makes no sense on any level and is blatant victim blaming
thetimes.co.uk/article/36b95…
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Calling an election at the start of the Scottish school holidays is a gift to the SNP - tells you all you need to know about UKG attitude to Scotland etc..... #generalelection
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Jeezo, that's the worse vox pop I have ever seen, finding folk excusing yesterday - 'bit of fresh air, bit of alcohol....' - yeah mate, bit of anti-Catholic hate singing, bit of pissing in the streets, bit of leaving police officers injured and in hospital - just harmless fun
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If you are still to download the @scotgov Covid passport now would be a good time - took 2 minutes and all working fine
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I would be more inclined to listen to a politician worrying about Covid spread in the Glasgow fan zone if that same politician had had anything to say about thousands of football fans rampaging through the city a few weeks ago
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Delighted to be working with Angus, a hugely respected figure across the political spectrum. My role is to make the research rigorous, objective and high quality and I will ensure my input has that focus. This is about understanding what people think and how views are changing
Delighted that @markdiffley1 is the head of polling and research for @progressscot. His experience as the pollster for the UK government in the run-up to the 2014 independence referendum will be invaluable. More info available here: progressscotland.org #ProgressScotland
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Bloody Hell - Jacob Rees Mogg is currently on @LBC saying that ‘Douglas Ross is not a big figure’ and accusing him of never supporting the Prime Minister. That will put the ‘branch office’ accusations to bed!!
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That #BBCSundayshow interview with Starmer was just odd - on the union, the role of the Supreme Court, immigration - not the way to win back lost Labour voters in Scotland I think
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Here you go - fascinating #indyref2 poll
Yes - 48%
No - 47%
DK - 5%
Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%
Deadlock!!!!👇
thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551…
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Half the interview being interrupted because “time is short” - we need longer form interviews which allow arguments to develop rather than pushing for sound bites and surface level argument #bbclaurak
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The current discussion on the independence question on #bbcqt is quite the most ill-informed garbage I have heard in a very very long time.
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Big takeaway for me from the @NicolaSturgeon speech is argument that independence is 'essential' for post Covid rebuilding - trying to move debate on and challenging unionist argument that it is a distraction #SNPConference2020
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The UK govt taking Scottish Parliament to court over an issue which Conservative MSPs voted in favour of is an absolute gift to the SNP ahead of a national TV debate and 3 weeks out from #SP21. It ticks every box for them in terms of 'power grabs' & where decisions shld be made
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So, after years of arguing their cases and demonstrating that they are not glorified 'branch office' leaders, both Ruth and Richard are back to square one.
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House of Commons rules:
Untrue slur on Keir Starmer about Jimmy Saville - fine
Calling the PM ‘Pinocchio’ - out of order
Go figure!
#PMQs
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Imagine filming next to a dinghy full of refugees in a potentially perilous situation and, instead of having any concerns for their safety, you casually say that if the weather changes ‘that will be the end of that lot’ - gross
Today, Nigel Farage is on the English Channel reporting on the migrant crisis, watch his full report at 7pm on GB News.
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The first 11 minutes of the news dedicated to a wedding that 2/3 of us are not interested in, on a day of a major plane crash and high school shooting seems hugely out of proportion and out of touch
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Ok, so most people will be in bed now but I have to share a story about me, my pals and Celtic 1/-
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Both leaders seem to forget that Scotland have qualified for the Euros #ITVDebate
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Every news bulletin framing the prospect of a second independence referendum on whether or not the SNP gets an overall majority. The reality is quite different I think.
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We can snigger at his buffoonery but this interview highlights an absolute lack of detail at the exact time that the country needs leadership at a point of national anxiety #marr
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Today's poll not only reconfirms the overall movement towards independence in public opinion but also the movements underneath which shld now be familiar:
- 42% of Lab voters
- two-thirds of those under 55
- 64% Remain voters
- more than 1 in 5 (22%) of 2014 No voters
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What an incredibly moving image of the First Minister with Bernard Cowan's mother. Heartbreaking. He has shown courage and leadership this week amidst personal trauma and distress
"Your grief is my grief."
A powerful image as @ScotGovFM @HumzaYousaf took time to speak with, and comfort, the mother and family of Glasgow born Bernard Cowan who was killed this weekend in Israel.
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Actually,. If you bothered to check you'd know I have worked across the political divide my whole career, including for the UK Govt. during the indyref (who existed expressly to make a case for the union!) and have worked with parties of all colours in Scotland for nearly 20 yrs
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Whether you want independence or not, the question which pro-UK parties can't answer is what the democratic route to independence is if the UK govt continues to refuse to allow one
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When he says that the devolved administrations “are taking similar steps” what he means is that they have already done it hours ago and didn’t do a TV interview yesterday saying the complete opposite of now.
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Exit poll in Scotland suggests SNP 55 Tories 3, Lab 1
If that, or anything like that, happens at the same time as Tories have nearly 100 majoriry, calls for #indyref2 will be deafening
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So far this week the news has been dominated by Djokovic, Johnson and Prince Andrew - all entitled individuals trying to escape scrutiny in an attempt to avoid the rules that the rest of us abide by. And it’s only Wednesday ffs
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More and more indication from London of an acceptance of #indyref2 should the SNP win the election in May (which looks likely) - you can feel the argument moving the terms of the referendum, the franchise, the question etc #newsnight
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Honestly, this is so poor - imagine relying on it to inform you about what is actually happening in Scotland right now
Nominations have opened for the next leader of the SNP after the resignation of the First Minister Humza Yousaf.
@susannareid100 asks @Kevin_Maguire and @toryboypierce about what this means for Scottish independence.
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The amount of coverage being given to Johnson in comparison to the other possible candidates is mind-boggling - dominating every vox pop, countless interviews with supportive MPs and commentators, leading every bulletin - absurd
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Seriously, can we please stop this 'one party state' nonsense - it's embarrassing for those peddling it. One of the reasons that we have had the same party of govt for 14 years is the ineptitude of the opposition parties, a fact readily acknowledged by Scot Lab's new leader
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There have now been 9 consecutive polls asking the Y/N question with Yes in the lead.
- 5 different polling companies
- Online and telephone methods
👇
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A little late to it but there does seem to be a story worth following on this 'Independent Green Voice' issue - looks like Scot Greens would have 2 more MSPs at Holyrood IF the 2,210 IGV votes in Glasgow and the 1,690 IGV votes in the south had gone to the Greens #sp21
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I see it has been a busy day on Twitter today. Anyhow, I am off home to unfurl my new Saltire above the house, polish my statue of the First Minister and renew my subscription to the National
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I went for a walk with my 14 year old son earlier this evening, as we do every day. Halfway around he suddenly said: "Dad, I have nothing to say because nothing is happening." Needless to say that has never happened before. Could have cried.
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First #indyref2 poll of 2021 and no sign of change in opinion - excl. DK: - Yes 57%, No 43% - note fieldwork dates from last Friday (8th) to yesterday (13th) - trend 👇
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Guy from Brexit Central on #scotnight criticises SG Brexit paper for being too long - i.e. not on the side of a bus
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Apart from being obvious bad news for Labour at a UK level, this polling is important in a Scottish context because it reduces the argument that we may have a Labour Govt soon which could revive pro union fortunes here
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From #ToryLeadershipContest poll - both candidates move more 'No' voters to 'Yes' than move 'Yes' (2014) to 'No'
Sunak 13% of 'No' voters more likely 'Yes', vs 5% of 'Yes' voters more likely 'No'
Truss 15% of 'No' voters more likely 'Yes', vs 4% of 'Yes' voters more likely 'No'
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I see irony is dead
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Before the normal cut and thrust begins again I hope everyone can acknowledge what an excellent and at times moving speech this was from @JohnSwinney
'I am here to serve Scotland'
John Swinney vowed to be 'First Minister for everyone' during a speech at Holyrood.
Live updates: i.stv.tv/3y9G9rU
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A quick thread on some notable features from the Panelbase poll over weekend
- Support for independence highest than at any point since before 1st ref called 👇
- 69% of those under 35 now saying they would vote Yes and 41% of those 55+
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If you want to understand what has happened in Scottish attitudes and polling in the last 12/18 months then the last 36 hours tells you everything you need to know and could be one of numerous case studies.....
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I mean Andy Burnham can criticise SG on communications (I have no idea whether he has a point on that or not) but he surely can’t think he should decide policy here
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Regardless of the circumstances it is beyond nauseating to see Prince Andrew being interviewed on the news.
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It may look different tomorrow but my hunch for now is that calling for someone to resign immediately before they are due to give evidence to an inquiry is unlikely to be a vote winner
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I mean how hard is it when preparing for #itvdebate to think that you might get a question about the Euros and then totally ignore that Scotland are going
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Updated trend on independence voting following today's poll 👇 - again, assuming this is last one of the year, 2020 stats are:
- No. of polls: 22 (19 online 3 telephone, 6 different pollsters)
- Yes ahead - 18
- No ahead - 2
- 50/50 - 2
- Average - Yes 53%, No 47%
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Labour is pretty much writing the SNP’s campaign material for them for the Rutherglen by election
Labour rows back on workers’ rights to blunt Tory ‘anti-business’ claims on.ft.com/3YGvhe9
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State of polls as PM arrives - uptick in support for independence for last year (not just since pandemic as some think) & primarily driven by Brexit. Key challenge for PM - how to keep (mainly) English pro Brexit faction happy without seeing further uptick in indy support - tough
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After today's latest independence poll, a summary of where we are at - assuming this is the last one of the year, some stats for 2020:
- Number of polls - 21
- 'Yes' ahead - 17
- 'No' ahead - 2
- 50/50 - 2
- Average - Yes 53%, No 47%
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Not a political observation but this #bbqt is awful and shows a dreadful lack of understanding of the Scottish political context - gave it a go but goodness me
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Finally, I don't think we have ever met so you know nothing about my political preferences. I also run a business in Scotland which trades on the expertise and professionalism of me and my colleagues, so I would really appreciate you not throwing around nonsense like this, thanks
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Catching up on #FMQs and today's poll - SNP will be pretty satisfied with their positioning on tax and with how support seems to be holding up
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These debates are especially important for new leaders who the public don’t know - I think @AnasSarwar has grabbed that opportunity tonight #BBCLeadersDebate
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Another example of a party opposed to independence being more obsessed about independence than the party in favour of independence, while simultaneously accusing the party in favour of independnce of being obsesssd with independence.
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"I don't think this is adding much" says the Convener about a particular line of questioning and speaking on behalf of voters, albeit about 6 hours too late
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For folk who don't mix in football circles I'd like to explain what a big deal this was (for them). I have known these guys for 20 odd years and tonight was the night - so much fucking respect it makes my heart fall over again. 💚
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Given SNP vote share at 38% and support for Indy at 45% I assume lots of Yes supporters voted Labour today
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And on indy question, 64% of 16-24 year olds say they would vote Yes - by comparison the final Survation poll before the indyref (which was joint most accurate) had 57% of 16-24s supporting Yes
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Sorry but the SNP winning 47 seats based on current polling in Scotland is just not happening ……
MODEL RESULT LATEST: @UKLABOUR WIN
LAB: 354 (+152)
CON: 198 (-167)
LIB: 28 (+17)
[Incumbent Weighted]
pollingreport.uk
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Conversation between my son and one of his pals while I was driving them to football this morning:
Son: 'What's your least favourite subject at school right now?'
Pal: 'Oh, definitely Maths, 110%"
Neither of them got why I found it so funny 😂
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Goodness, quick dive into that YG poll - devastating for Labour ahead of May '21:
- At 14% in const. and list vote
- Only just over half who voted Lab in 2019 say they will do so next year - 31% now say they would vote SNP
- Just 13% of working class wld vote Lab (13%!)
1/-
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To put it mildly, if this happens it is not the situation that either John Swinney or the SNP will want. A three week series of debates and hustings which delays the inevitable, exposes divisions and costs money is not what the party needs right now
Spoke to veteran SNP activist Graeme McCormick yesterday and he's very confident he'll have enough nominations to enter the leadership contest heraldscotland.com/news/2429…
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the SSA finding is interesting as it is 1st time ever that independence is the most popular of the 3 options on offer
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Look out tomorrow for @progressscot poll across the media. Covering: 👇
- attitudes to independence on 0-10 scale
- extent of changing minds since 2014
- wisdom of crowds - what folk think wld happen if ref now
- important issues to voters
Some v interesting and revealing data
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Air going out of balloons and humble pie being heated up as we speak #HamiltonReport
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Wow - just called by 'Validity Research' and asked if I would consider voting for a party who can 'stop the independence obsessed SNP' - wtf
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Not sure I have seen a senior cabinet minister even loosely nod to the possibility of another independence referendum before.....
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The notion that I (or others) can't use their expertise to offer impartial advice without fear or favour is just nonsense.
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I get that it is difficult to accept when things go against you but I do think the opposition parties need to avoid rubbishing the report’s findings and try to move on to other issues
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In line with other news tonight , Celtic will be travelling back to Scotland with a positive result
#Celtic
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Might need to relisten to Jo Swindon's @BBCr4today interview just there - I think she said that the SNP goes into elections not saying that they are in favour of independence but I must have got that wrong
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I have been off here recently dealing with my Dad's sad passing. I wrote a few words about him to help me cope - he was such some guy 💚 - medium.com/@markdiff/saying-…
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Having recently conducted 2 Citizen's Assemblies I'm supportive of the power that they can have if done well - great idea 👍
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Impossible to imagine how heartbreaking this is for the First Minister, his family and thousands of others. Respect to him for his composure and measure over the last few days
I have written to the Foreign Secretary James Cleverly in support of calls for the establishment of a humanitarian corridor in Gaza to allow civilian evacuation.
📄 Full text: gov.scot/publications/israel…
ALT Letter from First Minister Humza Yousaf to Foreign Secretary James Cleverly. Link to full text of letter in post.
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"This is as close to a coup attempt as this country has ever seen" says a former head of Washington Police on @CNN
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I mean you can argue about whether you agree with it or not but the 2014 Yes campaign published a 650pp independence prospectus, so John Major comparing it to the Brexit Leave campaign is pretty disingenuous
Here Is John Major speech. Anyone who cares about Britain should read or watch it. piped.video/watch?v=h93AZirB…
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Love how #marr points out the constitutional preference of one Scottish newspaper but not any of the others
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I’ll be doing a bit on #BBCSundayShow at 10am on #indyref2 polling and where we are at after a big week in Scottish politics. Do tune in if you can
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FM leaning on her podium watching the lads kick lumps out of each other (and prob enjoying it) #NextLeaderOfScotland
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I know 2020 has been shit but in the last week:
- Biden won
- covid vaccine found
- Scotland qualified for Euros
So, things can only get better👍
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Remember how, errr 6 weeks ago, people thought the FM would have to resign and then that Salmond’s new outfit would scupper the SNP? #sp21
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All talk is of SNP losing seats (likely) but noteable that 3 of the 5 seats with smallest majorities are the 3 non-SNP seats #ge2017
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