INC 500 Entrepreneur (#21 in 2014). Author, Mastering the Trade. Options trader. Unschooler. Member: EO, YPO. Wondering if reality is only a Rorschach ink-blot.
Austin, Texas
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This is a journal recap of my trading last year. Although I didn't trade $GME, I did trade plenty of $TSLA, $AMZN, and $SPX for a 1270%, $18.2M gain. Here's the blog: simplerjohn.medium.com/2020-…
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Housing supply question - is anyone who locked in a sub 3% mortgage going to sell their home so they can get a new house with a 6% mortgage?
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Trading journey:
First, you lose money.
Then you learn how not to lose money.
Then you make money.
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This trading boom is getting out of control. Now there are retail stores for options traders.
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The increasing shift out of financial assets into hard assets will soon turn into a panic move.
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At the end of the day, trading is about generating cash. Not about being right. Not about calling the top. Cash money. Grab the cash. Wire it out. Cash flow fixes a lot of problems. Being present and setting boundaries fixes most of the rest.
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There is an open interest of about 200,000 call options that expire this Friday between $680 and $1020 on $NVDA for earnings tonight. That represents 20 million shares of stock, which is worth $13.6 Billion at $680. The easiest way for the market to handle that is for NVDA to fall after earnings and let all of those calls expire worthless.
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The 10 day moving average of the combined put-call ratio has been a long time solid guide to human behavior in the markets. When everyone is bullish (.50 ish) markets top and pull back. When everyone is bearish (.70 ish) markets bottom and rally. Ending the week at .75
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BTFD or STFR? As a general rule (for my trading style), above the daily 21 EMA buy the dip, exit at upward extensions. Below the 21 EMA sell the rally, exit at downward extensions. Expecting more of both in the weeks ahead.
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Take the risk. If you win, you will be happy. If you lose, you will be wise. Not sure who said this, but if you find yourself hesitating, I've found the best thing to do is take the plunge and see what happens.
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Everyone looking for a crash - remember the central banks are going to have to expand the money supply massively starting in 6 to 8 months. So goes the money supply, so goes asset prices. 2008 changed everything. It's just the game.
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One of my mentors beat this into me. "Traders are not born with the patience gene. It's learned the hard way. This is a game of the patient taking money from the impatient."
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Anytime trading is hard, ask yourself if you are trading what is really happening or if you are trading a hallucination in your mind.
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I find that many consistent traders don’t rage on social media. I think this is because good traders have to learn how to quiet their minds. Is expressing strong opinions merely a release valve for uncontrolled mental chatter?
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I got this friend who's been in cash for the last year. This market will absolutely keep going up until he caves and "gets back into stocks." He's 4/4 on this specific type of timing. I'll keep you posted. $SPX
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I'm seeing so many $SPX charts being compared to 2008 and how we are about to crash. If everyone sees it . . .
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As a trader, you want to play in a sandbox that is safe. When $QQQ closed below its 34 EMA on the daily chart last week, that was a signal that the sandbox is no longer safe. Cash and patience is a position.
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1) When dancing with the market, it’s best to let it lead. 2) Never leave your back unprotected. $SPX
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This market feels like the end of a frat party. The police have shown up and a few people are huddled in the corner, puking.
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Shower thoughts: I found during the #TexasWinterStorm2021 that water, cash, and neighbors were priceless. While my Bitcoin, bullion and bullets were useless.
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That day when the volatility index $VXX got halted due to volatility.
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Quick dinner in Singapore - trying to maximize the few remaining summers before the kids vacate the house.
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With this $PCALL chart, At .7 or lower the risk of a sell off increases substantially. Ideally the average now gets to .9 or higher over the next few days, and then the markets rip shorts a new one. In a perfect world we get some follow through selling on Monday in $SPX and $NDX and $NVDA to set the stage.
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The year is 2026, and the $SPX is still pinning at $3850.
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I'm interested in feedback if this is helpful - posting a daily trading journal on my day trades. Swing trading is much less intensive. One week of trading = one article on medium. Open to ideas on better ways to do this, or what else to include, etc. This should be a link but if not click the image and it will take you to the article. medium.com/@simplerjohn/trad…
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Go Elon @elonmusk straying way, way off the beaten path of corporate speak is:
1. Restorative
2. Invigorating
3. Exhilarating
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If $SPX can hold 4050 Tuesday and Wed, looking for a rally to 4200 + into the first week of March. After that looking for some ugly sticks.
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If you are depressed because the future seems bleak, keep in mind there are companies that drive this and profit from your state of mind. F*ck them by choosing to be happy.
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The last trading week of the year. Look for stocks at 52-week lows to free fall as traders (retail traders, not funds) dump into the end of the year to book the loss. Good buys on Dec 31 to hold for a few week bounce.
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“The great enemy is always fear. Only boldness can deliver us from fear. And if the risk is not taken - the meaning of life is violated.”
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We bought a condo in the cayman islands and when we paid it off realized there were no more payments since there are no property taxes . . . like wow.
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On Monday we are headed to South America for 2 weeks (rain forest & Galapagos). For whatever reason, usually when I fly the markets selloff. Just a heads up. 🌊🌊
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I know banks are crashing and the world is coming to an end and all that, but staying long $MSFT over the weekend. 2H Squeeze as well as 2D and Weekly.
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Normally I shave about every 4 to 5 days. Not shaving until we get a close below the low of the high week. $SPX
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Overheard: "If my parents had given me 300K like @JeffBezos I could have started $AMZN too." Or, maybe, just maybe, you would have blown it all on a Lambo and nose candy. Tough call.
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I can handle trading a 100 lot on the ES futures - but ordering food for my kids through a drive through stresses me out. Today - me: “And a vanilla latte with a grilled cheese.” Speaker: “You want the grilled cheese in the latte?”
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The first week of May is usually flat to down. We are 3 ATR away from the mean on $SPY. A reversion back to the mean takes us back to 411 ish. If you are a swing trader, IMO this is a good time to be taking profits and relaxing this weekend in mostly cash.
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This is what I learned about trading when I bought 3 zebras. $SPX $NDX $TSLA medium.com/@johnfrederickcar…
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My wife and I have been married for 23 years. Last week she finally decided to open up a trading account. Starting with @RobinhoodApp but I'll have her graduate to @thetastyworks I suggested $PTON and $DKNG as her first two trades last week. Wish me luck.
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2,200 year old temple in India. Amazing country. By the time I adjust to the time zone I will be back in Austin, ready to trade.
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Though of the day: QE will be back on the table by the end of 2022 due to a slowing economy, which wipes out inflation.
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Watching people panic and stockpile toilet paper - I totally get why the government doesn’t want to tell us about the aliens. #COVID19
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Approaching $SPX "too many bears" trigger? Next swing short when we get back to .75 ish.
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Momentum creates momentum until it reverses. Compression creates compression until it explodes/implodes. $SPX
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"If you spend your time arguing with friends, family, and internet strangers about politics, then they have you right where they want you. Release the need to be right and get back to building your dreams."
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It feels like shit is about to go down? Probably just need to turn off social media and go back to transcendental meditation.
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I heard this the other day that seems to sum it up. "At its heart, wokeness basically gives people an excuse to be mean and cruel, behind a shield of false virtue."
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Looking for a panic run in $SPX up to 3350 over the next several weeks. I'm not saying it makes sense.
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Taking time off this week. Trading can be mentally draining. Being flat and away is a like a spa treatment for your brain.
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My trading setup in 2005. We live in Boston at the time. Then Maria got knocked up so we moved to Austin.
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Long weekend coming up. From personal experience, I highly encourage traders to go to 100% cash in their short term trading accounts tomorrow. Free your mind. Get recharged. Reflect. Plan. Plenty of opportunities around the corner.
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