President UK Air & Space Power Association. Podcaster. RUSI Distinguished Fellow. Former RAF Senior Commander. All views are strictly in a personal capacity.
United Kingdom
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Our latest The High Ground podcast is out. @seanbellanalyst and I take a critical look at the UK’s Defence Investment Plan. airspacepower.com/the-high-g… it’s been a long wait, but has it been worth it? Have a listen and find out…
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The #SignalGate episode is far, far more serious than the US administration is trying to suggest. It is not just a question of Mike Waltz making a “mistake” by accidentally including a journalist. They should never have been using the medium for the purpose they did.🧵1/6
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A short🧵1/9 on the Israeli air raids into Iran yesterday. This was more than a precision strike, it was a clear demonstration of capability, intent and will. [This replaces a previous thread that mistakenly reposted a misleading video - thank you to all who rightly corrected me]
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So, Trump’s master plan was for both sides to just stop fighting. And he thought he could achieve that by giving one side everything it wanted, and threatening the other one with extinction and extortion.
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This post is absolutely disgraceful. We know nothing around the facts of this case and Group Captain Henton would have been selected on merit for the full breadth of roles at Brize. If this is the face of Reform, I don’t think many would want to serve under them.
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2 days ago she told everyone to watch GBNews. Guess which UK news outlet is the only one not running the biggest story of the day about Trump and the Epstein e-mails……?
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9/ And there is an even wider lesson for those who see a new paradigm in deep strike. Drones and missiles may be a tempting solution for many, but it would appear that “the bomber still can always get through”. Now imagine what Ukraine could do given similar means…..ENDS
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I think the vast majority of us Brits want the BBC to thrive and be a beacon of balance and truth in reporting. It needs to be and do better, but these two tweets alone should be all the proof you need for why it must continue to exist.
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I was a big fan of F-16s going to Ukraine, and they will have served a useful purpose, but their slow introduction and subsequent US unreliability means that this deal for Gripens is now the long term bet, and a pretty good one too.
Sweden and Ukraine have agreed on a long-term plan that could see Kyiv acquire up to 150 Gripen fighter jets — part of a 10–15 year effort to strengthen Ukraine’s air power, not a donation.
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There is a slight twist to the #signalgate scandal. The USN and USMC have always preferred the probe and drogue method of air refuelling. Because the USAF prefers the boom method, UK tankers spend quite a bit of time refuelling USN & USMC aircraft. 🧵1/4
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There is something far more sinister and dangerous behind recent events. Those that believe they are doing “the right thing” by acting as they do need to understand the full consequences of their actions and more importantly their rhetoric. Let’s join the dots:🧵1/9
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4/ This is not about the accidental inclusion of a journalist, it’s about the fundamental principles for the handling of classified information. And the Group concerned is a who’s who of every senior official with a responsibility for National Security - they are all implicated.
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A Red Flag Exercise is the pinnacle of air combat training. Flown and managed from Nellis AFB in Nevada, it’s a multi-Nation, multi- aircraft exercise for the US and her allies to test themselves in the most realistic conditions possible, short of actual combat. A Red Flag 🧵1/14
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2/ The level of information that was posted appears to amount to at least Secret (targets, times and weapons ahead of a strike), but some may possibly be even higher than that (CIA Operative names). These are clear breaches if true, and everyone involved should have known that.
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6/ it will have shaken any confidence that Iran had in their so called impenetrable Russian-supplied air defence systems. And in a country the size of Iran you can’t defend everywhere- it now appears they can’t defend anywhere.
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A scenario of how Russia could attack the UK tomorrow. 4xTu160m Blackjack bombers launch from Engels airbase in Russia. Each aircraft carries 12 xKh101 Cruise missiles, so a total load of 48 missiles. 1/8
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8/ But the real damage is the signal Israel has sent of what it is capable of doing, even when Iran is at a state of heightened alert. It also has wider implications, as the results will not have been lost on Russia who knows that their equipment is fallible and vulnerable.
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5/ Iran won’t say it, but it will come as a huge shock to them that they can be targeted with such relative ease. The precision of intelligence and attacks, and ease with which it was conducted, despite plenty of notice, means Iran knows Israel can do this whenever it wants to.
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6/ This administration has brazened out everything so far, and their base has rallied behind them. But National Security and the lives of service men and women is sacrosanct in the US - this scandal may have crossed a line & Trump may need to distance himself from it, and fast.
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5/ And if they continue to circle the wagons in order to justify their actions, they run the danger of all being dragged down with it. The Senate Intelligence Committee is on the scent as I post and the “no classified information was posted” defence is unravelling quickly.
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3/ Intelligence can be time sensitive, but its passage and storage should only ever be on appropriate means. The use of mobile devices and apps such as Signal are strictly controlled and/or prohibited. Whilst they have become common place they are not cleared for classified info.
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In 2001, NATO nations responded to a US call for an Article V response after an attack on US soil. There was no debate about where the attack took place, where the threat came from or who paid for what, just an agreement that an attack on one was an attack on all.
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2/ The raid demonstrates a level of co-ordination and execution that is way more precise, sophisticated and devastating than the salvo firing of some less-than-successful drones or missiles - which is Iran’s only viable conventional means to strike Israel.
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4/ Some of the more sophisticated air defence sites were “suppressed” along the way, and with no reports of any Israeli losses a combination of this, stealth and standoff weapons has proven highly effective against Iranian air defences.
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How about a SCIF, or some of that expensive stuff on their desks that you pay a lot of money for?
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Reform is an arm of MAGA - plain and simple. The BBC attack was just the start, but they won’t be happy until we are a vassal of America. NATO remains a strong alliance, with or without the US. We do not need to be held to ransom for a security guarantee.
Femi
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7/ So, the strikes may have drawn a line in the conventional “war” between the two, and we are yet to see the impact on Iranian production, although we may see clues in Ukraine first if export supplies are impacted.
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The Royal Air Force today has 137 Typhoons in service. 30 Tranche 1 (22%), 67 Tranche 2 (49%) & 40 Tranche 3 (29%). Known as the Typhoon FGR4, it fulfils the majority of day-to-day combat air roles in the UK and abroad. raf.mod.uk/aircraft/current-… A Typhoon🧵1/14
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Nathan Gill was convicted on 26 Sept. On 29 Sept Zia Yusuf denied anyone in the Reform leadership knew him. Finally, 11 days later, Nigel Farage admits to knowing him for over 20 years and says he is stunned. So stunned that he stayed completely silent for 2 whole weeks….
'What are voters to make of the fact your former leader in Wales pleaded guilty to accepting bribes for making statements in the European Parliament in favour of Russia?'
Zia Yusuf from Reform UK was questioned on #BBCBreakfast after Nathan Gill admitted the offences while he was an elected MEP
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6x…
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3/ We haven’t seen all the results yet but a select number of key targets linked to Iran’s missile and drone capability appear to be the main target - a restrained but potentially debilitating tit-for-tat response that doesn’t appear to have targeted nuclear or oil facilities.
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Ok, I’m going to say it. This was somewhat over complicated, and looks more like the perfect execution of the plan they would had prepared assuming that it was a US pre-emptive strike and that they were the first ones in.🧵1/8
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No more warnings, next incursion is considered a hostile act and engaged. This has to be stopped in its tracks.
Nato says it intercepted three Russian fighter jets that violated Estonian airspace and accuses Moscow of "reckless behaviour" bbc.in/47S8QcK
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2/ It looks like the UK may have been providing fuel to the US strikes against Houthi targets. This is not new, we have participated in strikes in the past. But this mission was in the context of a breach in National Security, that also included statements denigrating Europe.
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As Nathan Gill’s sentencing date approaches for bribery by Russian agents when serving as an elected MEP, it’s worth noting that he wasn’t the then BREXIT party’s only link to Russia. So, the question is how much further did it go? 🧵1/17
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A few days ago, the Daily Telegraph gave this Russian-born analyst a platform. Today, she tells Europe to stand down against the “mighty” Russian threat, including Putin’s “warm and ready nuclear furnace”. Be very careful where you get your news from people, we are at war.
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I respect the right to protest, but this was misguided. These aircraft are incompatible with Israeli fighter aircraft (you knew that right?); but, they are critical for non-combatant evacuation missions. You just made Brits around the World less safe. Not feeling so clever now?
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When Nathan Gill was arrested at Manchester Airport he was on his way to a conference in Moscow to talk about how to use crypto spawned technology to run elections.
🚨BREAKING🚨
What Nathan Did Next: A Kremlin-Backed Forum on How to Subvert Western Democracy — and how Reform UK’s former Welsh Leader Nathan Gill fits in. 🧵 1/12
Full story: bylinetimes.com/2025/10/17/w…
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3/ As the tankers would have been kept out of harms way, they were not overly compromised by the release of launch and strike times - however it does add another level of complexity as it means the release may not just be a compromise of a US mission.
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4/ it’s worth noting, that if any of the strike packages had been made aware that timings had been compromised, they would have, in all likelihood, delayed their attack to maintain what element of surprise they could salvage.
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I did more digging on Gill’s “handler”, who some are trying to dismiss as a journalist or parliamentarian (he was both), rather than a Russian agent (he was). It won’t surprise many to know that Gill was not his only target. Here is what the USA observed. A🧵1/5
As Nathan Gill’s sentencing date approaches for bribery by Russian agents when serving as an elected MEP, it’s worth noting that he wasn’t the then BREXIT party’s only link to Russia. So, the question is how much further did it go? 🧵1/17
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The UK’s Carrier Strike Group is about to conduct a transit of the South China Sea after its time in Japan. It now finds itself having to manage a complex and changing diplomatic context. Is this crunch time for UK strategy & credibility in the region? - a🧵1/8
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Worth remembering when we convince ourselves that we are innovating more quickly these days…
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A few myth busting thoughts on the UK’s evacuation operation in Sudan: 1. The UK reacted as quickly (if not quicker in some areas) in standing up a evacuation force. 2. It will have to operate for longer and have greater capacity than other Nations with smaller national numbers.
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Great job @RAFNortholt, @qcsofficial and @RoyalAirForce. You did Her Majesty proud on her last journey.
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A nice take on the traditional missing man formation, where a single aircraft leaves the formation to “ascend to heaven” in honour of fallen comrades.
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What we are seeing here is the tactical naivety of a 4-year USMC Corporal, rather than a politically astute take. Ukraine doesn’t have to win, it just needs to not lose whilst pressure builds on Russia. Why does he think Russia are so keen to get to the table?
Behind the tough guy language, there is no argument here. What's the firepower advantage of the respective parties to the conflict? Manpower? How might that change with further NATO action, and how are you proposing to change it?
As it turns out, I'm right and Joshi is wrong, though maybe he believes the underlying dynamics *could* change in the future. He's welcome to make that argument.
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The repercussions for Iran may be huge, but whatever the West does to support Israel (directly or indirectly) needs to be applied to Ukraine - doing the right thing doesn’t depend on who the bad guy is.
Ukrainians sitting in shock watching how everyone scrambles to respond to Iran while the same drones and missiles along with North Korea’s have been raining down on Ukrainian cities and towns for over 2 years. The response in Ukraine is countless conferences and discussions
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2/ Some have convinced themselves that the UK is complicit in a genocide in Gaza - which prompted the attack at Brize Norton. The situation in Gaza is dreadful, but some people ignore the hand of Iran behind Hamas and the wider aims of that regime.
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We are about to discover that downsizing your military for wars of choice is no use when war chooses you….
New: UK Defence Sec John Healey has directed the armed forces to look at options to bolster NATO's air defences over Poland.
The UK has 300 military personnel there + until 6 weeks ago had 6 Typhoon jets stationed in Poland. One option is returning at least some of those jets.
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Undersea cables, DHL attacks, GPS jamming, drone overflights of Poland/Romania, and now large formation incursions of NATO airspace with combat aircraft over the Baltic States. It’s time to draw a line in the sand and take a stand. Next time there needs to be 3 less MiG-31.
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Europe has some serious thinking and acting to do about the medium to long term. But what can it do in the short-term that could make a difference in Ukraine? It’s time for a No Fly Zone thread: how one could work and why it might help 🧵1/10
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We can’t see this in the UK because they lost their broadcasting licence. But Russia Today ( a Russian state sponsored outlet) are using a UK parliamentary candidate words to push their own propaganda - that should be ringing the alarm bells off the wall.
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9/ Peacefully protest your beliefs by all means, but don’t bring a far more dangerous and indiscriminate threat to these shores by peddling a false narrative that has the potential to do this country and her people harm.
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This is straight out of the supremacist, anti DEI playbook. It undermines trust and rewards political allegiance in the military. Politicians should be asking what do you need to help fix this? Not scapegoating the very individuals who volunteer and step up to defend us.
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When the American Secretary of State, who looks after all US foreign affairs, accidentally let’s on that he doesn’t know that Poland, a NATO country, borders Russia.
Just making things up.
No one has made any threats about cutting Ukraine off from Starlink
And say thank you because
without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now
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The 1st cracks appear. But we should not be surprised that Russia seeks to buy assets, it has always operated in the shadows. But it’s always surprising at how gullible the targets are, how cheaply they are bought and the lengths that many will go to ignore or excuse it.
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In a recent interview with @MishalHusain for @business, Nigel Farage, in trying to play down his Russian links, referred to his speech in the European Parliament where he predicted war with Russia. Seeing as he brought it up its worth a closer look.🧵1/5
Nick Reeves #RejoinEU #NAFO #FBPE
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Here’s a quick teach-in on how to schedule a combat air patrol, and assess the number of aircraft needed to fill it over a 24 hour period. In theory it works for any aircraft, but let’s use the example of a Poseidon P8 Maritime Patrol aircraft. A maths🧵1/6
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3/ I am extremely confident that the UK has been trying to walk the difficult diplomatic tightrope of helping an ally and securing British citizens, whilst also urging restraint. Diplomacy & alliances can be very challenging, and it doesn’t get much harder than this one.
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Sharkey and I rarely saw eye-to-eye, and had the odd run in. That said, I had a deep respect for him as an aviator, and a straight talking one at that who never pulled his punches. Rest in peace Sharkey, and Blue Skies. You were one of a kind and the right man at the right time.
Sad news, upon hearing of the passing yesterday of Commander Nigel "Sharkey" Ward, a true hero of the Falklands War... Rest in Power, Sir.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharke…
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A word of thanks and congratulations for Group Captain Louise Henton and the entire team at @RAFBrizeNorton, especially after a tough few days. For those hearing a different narrative, this is what the RAF Transport fleet does. bbc.com/news/articles/cy5wkl…
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6/ The UK Voyager tankers can’t refuel the B2, just as they can’t refuel the Israeli fighter aircraft. But this didn’t stop the attack at Brize Norton, so why should it stop the theory that the UK refuelled the B2s. But why does this matter you say…
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4/ But by making false or unproven links in this connected world you begin a narrative that not only gathers pace and support, but creates one that can be exploited by those who would happily do us harm. Iran and Russia are masters of this.
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7/ As awful as the situation in Gaza is, the reprisals of an Iranian regime in fear of its very existence could do some very nasty things. We have recently foiled a terrorist plot in the UK and yesterday a British man was arrested for spying for the IRGC in Cyprus.
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5/ Some see the damage to a couple of aircraft as a legitimate response, but where does it stop? Yesterday the US entered the war in Iran. The UK played no part in these strikes but will the same false narrative peddled by Palestine Action now get applied to this?
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There is a huge lesson here in how we react to aggression. The slow drip response has allowed Putin to ratchet up his rhetoric and play for time or discord. Had we gone hard and more determined at the outset we could have seized the initiative and removed Putin’s room for games.
This Russian strike also reveals how much they dread UKR having ATACMS and Storm Shadow/Scalp, due to their effectiveness. We should have done this from the beginning.
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The #SignalGate charge sheet is not restricted to one individual:
WALTZ - mistakenly admitted the journalist.
HEGSETH - released TOP SECRET data by inappropriate means.
GABBARD - denied under oath any classified data had been released.
A “who should carry the can” 🧵1/10
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You weren’t just a cleaner Lisa. Like the NASA janitor, you were an integral part of the Air Defence of the UK. Best wishes for what comes next.
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The UK needs to take a serious look at a French air-launched nuclear option for Typhoon and then GCAP down the line, in order to increase Europe’s deterrent in our new context.
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8/ Iran will have no hesitation in joining the dots up wrong to make their case for action. Only this time it won’t be a paint filled fire extinguisher, and it may not be a military base. We could face some extremely serious consequences of what is unfolding in the Middle East.
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I added my name to the signatories on the SkyShield initiative. It’s a bold but necessary step if we are to help Ukraine as much as we can, stand up to Russia and offset any US wavering. #SkyShield
Dozens of EU, US & Canadian MPs, fmr ministers & retired officers call for a European-led air protection zone over western Ukraine.
Just 120 SkyShield aircraft would have greater impact at less risk & cost than 10,000 European ground troops. #SkyShieldNow
theguardian.com/world/2025/m…
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A very complex and fatiguing mission that resulted in 7 x B2s dropping 2 x GBU-57 MOP bombs each on the two primary nuclear sites of Fordo and Natanz, with Isfahan being struck by at least 24 submarine launched TLAMs (Tomahawk missiles).🧵1/7
America’s B-2 bombers struck deep inside Iran undetected. Not a single radar ping, no fighter response, no shots fired.
Joint Chiefs Chair Caine called it flawless:
“No other military in the world could have done this.”
Decoy bombers flew west while the real ones went east, preserving total surprise.
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Europe now has to assume two things regarding Ukraine: There will be no meaningful ceasefire or peace agreement, and the US will not provide military assistance to Ukraine. Europe’s plans must take both those assumptions into account.
⚡️ Russia calls Ukraine ceasefire 'unrealistic' despite Trump's peace efforts.
A full ceasefire in Ukraine is "unrealistic," Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya said during an April 17 briefing, challenging diplomatic efforts to halt the fighting.
kyivindependent.com/russia-c…
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I once removed a senior commander from post in the middle of an operation for personal misconduct. War is a time when moral and ethical behaviour and leading by example is more important, not less so. It’s always the right time to do the right thing.
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A picture of a previous wartime leader who visited the White House and didn’t wear a suit.
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As the US Administration attempts to ride #signalgate out, it’s alleged that Pete Hegseth (US Sec Def) allowed his wife (a former Fox News Producer) to attend senior meetings - this appears to be her walking in to the UK-US senior talks on 6 Mar. nitter.app/RepTedLieu/status/1906…
Rep. Ted Lieu
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To all those conspiracy theorists who saw RAF voyagers in Qatari airspace and believed they had refuelled Israeli jets (which they can’t), this is what they were really doing there….
Ex Soaring Falcon – a routine, annual, planned exercise.
Deepening defence partnership with the Qatari Emiri Air Force is underway, to train QEAF pilots in air-to-air refuelling, with RAF Voyager.
Two Joint squadrons, strong relationship, interoperability.
#StrongerTogether
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For those saying it would/could never happen, everything in this scenario occurs regularly (right up to the point of release)…
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Farage’s bluster and fake tough talk in this interview is a too obvious attempt to try and deflect the harm that his Russian links are starting to cause, but fails to hide his two obvious tells: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Boom equipped 707s. With KC46 coming next year. timesofisrael.com/idf-releas…
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I’ve acted as a Red Team in war-games a few times, let me explain why this information release was dangerous. 1. The time over target allows an enemy air defences to set their watches for you 2. The launch time signposted the most vulnerable time slot to attack the Carrier Group.
Following continued downplaying of the incident by officials with the Trump Administration, who continue to claim that what was talked about in the recent Signal group-chat regarding strikes against the Houthis in Yemen was not considered “war planning” and was not classified; Jeffrey Goldberg, Editor-in-Chief for The Atlantic, has now released what appears to be the full chat-log for the group in Signal, as well as the identity of every person included in the chat. The log proves that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz was the one to add Goldberg to the group, as well as claims by Goldberg that information about strike timing, weapons systems, and targets were posted in the chat by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth hours before the start of the strike operation in Yemen.
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This looks like over compensating to me, which means he’s rattled that the Russian links are starting to bite. And all his so called tough talk is set in the future, where talk is cheap, but his parting shot was to double down in blaming NATO expansion for Putin’s invasion.
***EXCLUSIVE*** Nigel Farage tells Bloomberg that if he led Britain he:
— would support shooting down Russian fighter jets entering NATO airspace
— use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine
— may even put British troops on the ground there as part of a UN peacekeeping force
— he also vowed that no more Reform politicians had corrupt relationships with Moscow.
These are by far Farage’s strongest comments yet on Russia and mark a major pivot after he came under cross-party criticism that he is soft on Putin.
He made the comments in an interview for the @MishalHusain Show, a new video podcast from Bloomberg Weekend.
— Farage said the Nathan Gill scandal was “appalling” and pledged that “without any shadow of a doubt” Gill is just one “bad apple… I believe, 100% with all my heart, there’s nobody else.”
— “Obviously, Putin is a very bad dude,” Farage said. “I was really hoping that Trump would bring Putin to heel, that some kind of compromise could be struck, as it's just been recently struck with Gaza and Israel. Clearly, that is not going to happen.”
— Asked what he would do about incursions into NATO by Russian jets, Farage replied: “Gotta shoot them down.”
— On whether the UK should use Russian frozen assets for Ukraine: “Clearly, if they’re there through illegal means, they should be.”
— Asked if he would put British troops on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, Farage said: “I’d be very cautious about doing that.” While he said he would not want “badged” British Army soldiers there, he could support their presence under a United Nations banner saying he “might put a UN force, think about a Korean approach to it.”
Farage’s remarks appear to be an attempt to counter a potentially damaging electoral narrative that he poses a risk to national security.
— “I suspect what you will see over the course of the coming months, the Americans beginning to deliver Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv. I think Trump feels that Putin has made a fool of him,” Farage said. “Clearly, Putin is not a rational man.”
— However he did repeat his criticism of NATO, saying “the endless eastward expansion of NATO and the European Union” contributed to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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I’m not sure who she spoke to on her trip to Paris, but the idea that Putin would stop his war crimes and invasion of Ukraine if we just stopped arming Ukraine (or ourselves for that matter) is not only supremely naive, but could have come straight from the mouth of the Kremlin.
"Putin is a dictator, a gangster, and there are war crimes that have been committed, but Zelenskyy isn't a friend of the working class either."
@zarahsultana says all efforts need to be put in to ending the war in Ukraine, not pumping money into arms manufacturers.
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In terms of basic capability and training yes. But the Israelis have twice as many combat aircraft (although half the number of tankers) and a few tricks up their sleeves with weapons and EW capabilities.
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Dear America, When Trump is elected out or impeached and his morally corrupt crony administration goes with him - you will have much to do to try and repair your reputation on the World stage. We will welcome you back, but don’t expect us to trust you quite as much as we used to.
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As we continue to watch men in suits discuss the war in Ukraine as if it was a business deal, we must never forget that war crimes are being committed every day by an illegal invasion force.
Horrific footage from this morning’s Russian attack on Kherson. Artillery shells exploding in a residential neighborhood.
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Ukraine’s allies have 3 strategic choices: 1. Do nothing (not enough) and leave Ukraine to it’s fate. 2. Do enough to ensure Ukraine doesn’t lose. 3. Help Ukraine win. Most allies have chosen Option 2 (having flirted with Option 1), they need to switch to Option 3 now.
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🇺🇦 NFZ - the short pitch: UN authorised; defensive only; Article V suspended for NATO participants; engage hostiles inside Ukraine airspace/border only (not Crimea); Ukrainian air ops continue in de-conflicted operating areas. Just in case anyone is asking? #NoFlyZoneOverUkraine
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The Royal Navy has made their opening foray into a hybrid Carrier air wing (hybrid meaning a mix of crewed and un-crewed platforms). Project VANQUISH seeks a technical demonstrator by the end of 2026. This is an evolution of the previous and more ambitious Project VIXEN👇 🧵1/5
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3/ The deception feint of the Pacific route seems more of a political stunt than a military tactic, especially as it mirrored & signposted the very nature and timing of the attack it was meant to mask. It also used up precious strike power and tankers. But a nice option to have!
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2/ But, over a week of Israeli strikes has brought the Iranian defence network to its knees, and their Air Force have been able to operate even 4th generation aircraft overhead Iran with impunity. Air supremacy is a tough state to achieve but it has been over Iran.
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An A10 is fine when you have a high degree of air control. If you don’t it’s a lame duck. F16s (or equivalent) needed first and foremost.
The US would be open to discuss giving its A-10 “Warthog” ground attack aircraft to Ukraine, the US Secretary of the @usairforce has indicated. Frank Kendall listed the ageing warplanes as among those the Air Force will be ditching to focus more $$ on modern programmes. 1/
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