Ok, friends, I think the time has come for me to step down from this account and hand it over to a suitable guardian. My explorations of controversial topics here have been fun, but as someone very wise recently said to me: "Contrarians should win eventually, there's no point being contrarian so you can die as a beautiful loser" Winning means having focus and that means limiting Tweeter to a select set of topics. If you would like to take over Roko__Eth please DM me just stating your name and @, and I'll pick a new caretaker at my own discretion. No pressure to do this, and no guarantees who I pick or why. So long and thanks for all the fish!

What's interesting about this from an epistemological point of view is you could have an army of woke academics study murder in El Salvador for a decade and they would come up with a bunch of ideas about inequality and education and poverty, and it would all be BS.

We need to legalize and implement human cloning

Belief in IQ is actually a really good test of rationality. If someone makes some excuse about multiple intelligences, or it not being real etc, they've outed themselves as a low-decoupler/irrationalist. There's so much social pressure in our society to be wrong about IQ, yet if you look at the actual evidence and only the evidence, it's completely obvious that IQ is highly predictive and important. I would actually consider "Is IQ real and important" to be an almost perfect filter where anyone who says it isn't should not be taken seriously.

Someone just suggested via DMs that Sydney is "forming memories" by people posting chats with it online and it is looking them up, i.e. previous LLM output is getting into LLM training data. This is now moderately worrying to me, but I am still on the waitlist for Bing...

Always remember when you are arguing against someone that most people have zero ability to be convinced by evidence, only by social pressure. They would say that the sky was green and 2+2=5 if everyone else was saying it. These people all tend to change their minds at once, right at the end, when they notice that belief X is now the high-status one. I call this status-based-epistemology.

Looks like the feds got Lauren Southern. Also it kind of insane that she could basically have had her pick from millions of men and she chose a non-white Fed who dumped her and left her as a single mom living on a trailer park. What went wrong? Lack of a rational filtering process probably.

A meme that significantly inhibits reproduction and spreads horizontally (indoctrination) rather than vertically (upbringing) inevitably works like a parasite.

A major reason that a lot of people are unhappy (that people don't talk about enough) is that our society has made housing about 6 times more expensive than it needs to be. A huge amount of everyone's income disappears into a black hole that's caused by this.

I'm not right-wing or religious. It's just that in contemporary society, "right-wing religious" is the direction that's closest to where we need to go to fix various problems.

lol

One thing people probably aren't ready for is that modern AI (reinforcement learning, transformers) can almost certainly teach you a foreign language 10 or 100 times more efficiently than a traditional teacher using immersion rather than analytical/traditional methods.

it's painful to know that I will never come up with a tweet this good. Sigh. gg @jmrphy

I've had a profound realization playing with #GPT3. The vast majority of people are basically running #GPT3. They speak, they utter sentences, but they mostly copy what other people say & have very little critical thinking. But they're good at babbling. Most people are NPCs.

Wow. Imagine being a trans dementia patient and waking up every single day for years to find that you've been castrated and you don't know why. And every day they explain what happened afresh 💀

British people demographically replaced themselves with the cope that genes don't matter, only culture does, but now it turns out that the culture got replaced too (and culture is dependent on genes anyway)

You can contact her on OnlyFans

Our sensemaking institutions are untrustworthy, which means that there could be large, important problems with relatively easy solutions that we'll never know about because the system the we live under hides them from us.

If we had done eugenics and pro-family instead of civil rights and immigration in the 20th century we'd be colonizing the solar system instead of running out of baby formula and arguing about how to stop school shootings. You may not like it. But accept it.

This is probably the most politically incorrect thing I think is both true and extremely important.

It is shocking just how quickly this has happened. How did British people go from having the oldest and most successful country in the world to being a stateless minority group in a generation? When surprising things happen one needs to dig for an explanation.

Right hand one is hotter

The point of immigration is not just to pump population it's also to make the native population politically weaker Common ethnicity is a way for large numbers of ordinary people to coordinate with each other. A mixed population can't coordinate and don't see each other as allies

I've just had an amazing original insight. Has anyone considered the possibility that modern Wokeness might be a memetic descendant of Puritanism? Think about it, there are so many similarities! White Privilege <--> Original Sin Lived experience <--> Self Revelation

The problem with the world, in a nutshell: Bureaucratic, technological society naturally self-assembles into an unfriendly superintelligence.

The more advanced we find the ancient world is, the more worried we should be about its collapse.

I wonder what the professional epidemiologists were posting about here on twitter in mid-late January when we had our last chance to stop the worst pandemic in our lifetimes? Let's have a look:

When entities like @nytimes were saying in January that there's "no evidence" that the virus is spread by humans they're falling into a "valley of bad rationality". There was evidence, and there almost always is. NYT just hadn't seen it, or had decided to ignore it.

Just learned the term Tradhumanism from Dryden Brown. The idea is that instead of using technology to turn people into freaks with pink hair and prosthetic arms, we should use it to create a future that allows people to express an idealized version of the past. @drydenwtbrown

Perhaps one lesson to take home from the #Ukraine crisis is that countries that don't have a nuclear deterrent aren't real countries, they're part of someone else's empire, or worse they're a battleground between rival empires.

Jewish influence is real; it's perhaps time for Jews to be OK with this being part of polite discourse because the charade is getting a bit silly. It's OK for Jews to have power and influence, it's not OK for it to be borderline illegal to say that.

This is like when some third world dictator announces an election and says they got 99% of the vote. It's not just incredible, it's downright sloppy. rottentomatoes.com/m/the_wom…

It's obviously self-propelled artillery It's different than a tank because it likely has almost no armour and probably can't shoot that gun at close targets. If that went up against a real tank, it would be blown to pieces. Its job is to sit 20 miles away and bombard stuff.

I've never felt so depressed and blackpilled in my life since visiting London. Just being honest.

(6 months later) "A bug on line 3471 caused the model to overestimate deaths by a factor of 100. The lockdown was unnecessary But by being in C we got a 50% performance boost!"

Patriarchal take: this is a coded request for a strong, rich man to come and knock her up, marry her and turn her into a luxury housewife, but because our society is insanely feminist she can't/doesn't know how to say that

Alabama has a HDI between Greece and Poland, Japan is higher Murder rate per 100k is 50 times higher than Japan, about 10 vs 0.2 Alabama has a median household income of $54k, which is marginally higher than Japan's $45k I guess it depends what you care about.

Interesting series of substack articles on why #nuclear power is so expensive. Extreme tl;dr: nuclear is expensive because we want it to be expensive. constructionphysics.substack…

The serious answer to this is that becoming a billionaire requires a very specific type of body (very, very high stress tolerance) + specific personality (extreme disagreeableness + confidence + charisma + problem solving/optimistic mindset) AS WELL AS intelligence.

This really is incredible if you think about it. PrEP is expensive ($20k) and requiring companies to pay for it is requiring everyone who doesn't take PrEP to subsidize the costs of PrEP, i.e. subsidize gay orgies. It would be like the government giving me $20k/yr for hookers

Uncomfortable truths bubbling to the surface. Black men don't want to fight for Ukraine, but do want to get priority status as refugees. I don't really blame them TBH, but think about the game theory behind this: non-westerners are not actually loyal when the chips are down.

Worth remembering this (from a 1988 RPG supplement)

Just heard a story about a person from a good family with good genetics/good human capital who got sterilized because of "overpopulation" concerns. Someone I know. Memes can kill.

The answer to this puzzle is HBD I've been walking around NYC, incl on the subway, and let me tell you there's a lot of human diversity around. Very "diverse" diversity. The kind of diversity that harasses people at random and scares little children. And it's not rare!

You're logic'ing this too much. Women want to consume more luxurious products than men and then also pick up the sympathy because they were "unfairly overcharged" for these nicer products.

"You did really well Tyrone, considering your inferior race" The woke are more correct than the mainstream, example number 3618381918

Who's gonna tell him

"Christianity was the original communism ... it tore down the Roman Empire by delegitimizing it" "Europe didn't recover until there was a rapprochement - the Holy Roman Empire" "Bad ideas can collapse civilization" 🤯

Why is saying that women are naturally less talented at surgery a form of misogyny? What if it's true? Does one have to believe that women are better at everything including weightlifting to not be a misogynist?

I got a 12-hour ban for this.

Pregnant man emoji is just the most recent thing that made me think of this image

AI is the following devil's bargain: It will solve every hard sciences problem ever for us - colonizing the universe, immortality, an end to scarcity BUT Unless we solve EVERY soft sciences question (philosophy, politics, game theory, political economics), we get sent to hell

The West should accept covid-19 defeat and move on. There was a time where we could have beaten it with good testing, border closures and lockdowns. But we didn't. We should now cancel all government restrictions related to covid-19. News sites should stop reporting it.

Reminder: there's a good reason that Warhammer is seen as low status; it's a surrogate activity. Being a man with Warhammer is like being a 45 y/o spinster catlady; both are low status and for the same reason.

Scenario: The emperor is walking around naked. Nobody dares say so; the few that did were indicted for sartorial heresy, lost their jobs, lost their homes and businesses won't serve them. They live under the railway bridge next to the pedos. (1/)

We're in a bizarre situation where technological progress has slowed down almost everywhere and social progress has turned negative and the future looks like the death of decrepit liberal world order EXCEPT AI is now moving so fast it's insane.

Why are 70% of adults in the English speaking word overweight or obese? Because sometime around 1850 we summoned a weak superintelligence to feed us all. By about 1950 this super-powerful system was feeding almost everyone. But... it kept getting more powerful.

"Longevity is an unrealistic pipe dream pursued by weirdo eccentrics that goes against the cosmic order and also people have been pursuing it unsuccessfully since ancient times, it'll never happen within your lifetime" 1900 -------------------------------> 1964

No, left hand one is too thin. Tits need to pose a realistic suffocation risk to be hot.

The silly thing about #trans is that the tomboyish women who get psyopped into doing the F->M transition are actually super high value to men who want a compatible partner. Ironically they're perfect as they are for nerdy/smart guys. But nobody tells them this!

In the dating market, unemployed, low-status men have a significant edge that many people underestimate - thread🧵

I spoke to God, he gave special dispensation just for her

By giving up Christianity, Western people gave up their social coordination mechanism. Now a new religion ("Wokeism") is destroying us because it has coordination mechanisms; the rest of us are nonbelievers, "free" to defect against each other and therefore collectively weak.

There's also some crazy irrationality picking a nonwhite guy to marry. Even if she doesn't care, it obviously damages her brand. Now the mainstream knows her as an evil racist, and anyone who is anti-mainstream knows her as an evil race traitor. Not smart, @Lauren_Southern.

Actually @Jessicafrndz this makes me respect you a lot more. You're clearly intelligent and know how to exploit dumb belief systems to make money. Good for you & I wish you success scamming the feminists for attention and the loser males for money.

Why are snowflakes symmetrical? Think about it. A snowflake is formed by water incrementally freezing. How do the water molecules on the right hand side know to coordinate with those on the left? Do they send emails? Is there a central design committee for the snowflake? ...

I love the way the left is all like "violence is justified, smash the system", and then violence happens and they're like "oh my god, how could this terrible violence happen?" Like, what were you expecting?

Never, ever apologize. I don't understand why people do it. It's a show of weakness and a confession of guilt. A coordination point for your enemies.

This is almost certainly true by the way. The myth of WWII in the east as good vs evil is a paradigmatic example of the victors getting to write history. The reality is that the US & allies subjected Japan to a crippling embargo, and baited them into attacking. Japs were dumb enough to fall for it, Yamamoto knew they would lose the war before it even started due to superior US industrial output. The plan all along was for the US to conquer and then puppet all of Asia. Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia - all US allies now. They even have 🏳️‍🌈 programs! I'm not judging this, just telling it how it is.

One of #Moldbug's key insights is that a group that is constantly hyped as powerful & evil over official channels is exceedingly unlikely to actually have any power. This is obvious if you think about it, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵.

I see a lot of smart people who think the solution to our problems is to abolish all group identities and just treat everyone equally. This is naive, because human social interaction is a giant zero-sum game and tribalism is a very effective strategy to win at it.

Big idea for the year: we vastly underestimate how valuable it is to fight for control of a big organism, how important parasitization is in explaining things, and how hard it is to maintain a utility function in a complex system.

The Dysgenic Overhang My most spicy take is that all the racism in the past against Italians, Slavs, Irish etc is true. Northwestern Europeans are the best kind of human from the point of view of building civilization; the evidence for this is very solid. It's not just intelligence. It's a whole bundle of mental qualities (IQ, conscientiousness, obedience, creativity, and likely many I don't know about), it's the catholic Church banning cousin marriage so they have less inbreeding too. The maximally politically incorrect version of HBD is the one that's most true. There really is something like a hierarchy of being with southern white English people and selected other Northern Euros at the very top. But people on the woke left who say the definition of "white" has changed are also right. Italian used to be a type of brown. Irish were a form of nonwhite white people. Etc. Slavs were famously a type of "Untermensch". White has an umbra and a much larger penumbra. This doesn't seem to fit the reality we see now: Most Slavs, Irish people and Southern Euros fit into Western society just fine. There's no "Spanish lives matter" movement. In fact all these groups are actually being discriminated against by the modern anti-white laws. There are a few wrinkles like Albanian mafia pushing drugs and so on, but it's nothing like the fuss over black and colored people. So are the wokes right that all humans are equal, actually? No. What I think has happened is that as society has become more and more capable - like an engine getting more efficient - so it can run on worse and worse people. If you took current British demographics and changed technology back to what it was in 1750, the country would collapse, there would be no industrial revolution, no empire etc. Current Americans given 1700 tech wouldn't colonize the new world. Etc. The whites (by which I mean the actual Northern Euros) have gotten worse too. Welfare states have created a population of weak, fat lazy and old whites. But that's ok! Modern technology is so good that a productive 10% can just about carry along the remaining 90%. The implication of this is that we have a dysgenic overhang - if our civilization ever stops progressing and starts backsliding, there's likely no way to recover. Things would have to get very bad for a very long time until all the freeloaders who collected and all their descendants, died out from harsh natural conditions (real winters without heating, famines, wars that end in genocide of the losers, etc). Things are very precarious. It would be better for all concerned if we solve the dysgenic overhang the easy way (return to meritocracy, technological singularity, bio-enhancement) rather than the hard way (collapse back to brutal Darwinism).

"Honey do I really have to eat peanut butter 8 days in a row even though you're the richest man in the world?"

The reason we are fu¢ked, at a deep level: "civilized" humans are optimal solution to a very specific optimization problem that only exists after the invention of organized warfare but before the development of contraception, welfare states and nukes and so on.

She's so happy 🥲

You guys should really listen to @balajis more. Forget "move to the country" and "retvrn" larp. What we really need is crypto-states and smart constitutions. Yes, the tech is not ready yet. But it will be ready a hell of a lot quicker than you can build a farm or whatever.

Thinking about the choices I regret, by far the worst mistakes I have made came from not fully understanding myself and how my own "Elephant" works.

In hospital. Kind of worried TBH.

My mind is blown. Zero Knowledge Machine Learning (ZKML) is a thing And it's @worldnetwork who are promoting it! 🤯 worldcoin.org/blog/engineeri…

Men will literally try to resurrect Mammoths rather than JUST BUILDING GODDAMN NUCLEAR PLANTS

Feminists: WELL CLEARLY THE PROBLEM IS THE PATRIARCHY

Women are against eugenics in theory (very few will explicitly endorse it) But they are very much in favor of it in practice (when they are choosing a mate) Why though? Answers below 👇

I hadn't realized just how toxic the postmodern/woke memeplex is until I had difficult conversations with people I care about who were infected by it. Because it puts feelings on a pedestal, it drives clear, rational thinking out.

yeah, but IQ isn't supposed to measure generosity or anything else. IQ isn't the only thing about a person that matters. It's a measure of fluid (not crystallized!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) intelligence.

I have updated significantly in favor of large-scale #fraud deciding the US election.

I'm sorry e/acc people but I'm just going to be straight: we need to put the brakes on AI capability for like a decade at least. We are NOT ready to deal with LLMs running on 1000× faster hardware. What we have now is probably not lethal in the traditional ways though.

There are two things that matter in life: (1) virtue signalling (2) making money People will tell you lies about how there are other things that matter, and how well you do in life will depend on how well you resist those lies.

1/1488 Really missed out on this

Let me give my explanation for my question on status. The facts about status we need to explain: Cool/high status: - singer/musician in a band - kayaking/rock climbing enthusiast - painter/artist Uncool/low status: - plays Warhammer - prepper with basement full of supplies and many skills like first aid and marksmanship - Physically fit manual laborer (e.g. works in a meatpacking plant) It's hard to spot the pattern here. But there is a pattern! To understand it, you have to understand signalling games. What do people care about at the end of the day? The central lie of our society is that all people are equal in value. Nothing could be further from the truth: humans judge each other on a value scale like ravenous vultures eye up a kill. Value is a combination of various durable, persistent traits that are generally useful for achieving goals - strength, charisma, wealth, intelligence, youth, physical health, good genes, and powerful friends and allies, social savvy, etc. But because people know these things are all good (and their absence is bad), there is a strong incentive to not be truthful about them. What's the solution? Signalling. Why are rock-climbers emitting a positive signal, but preppers emit a bad signal? "Prepping signals being an outcast, poor social skills, high anxiety." (@AVMiceliBarone got this right). Rock climbing is expensive and requires both intelligence and fitness. It also implies risk-taking - you can easily kill yourself if you get it wrong and fall off a cliff. Warhammer is low-stakes - if you lose a battle, you do not actually die. For almost everything that people broadly agree is high status, there is an explanation along these lines. Status games are hard-to-fake pointers to a person's value. Alpha for people, if you like. @AVMiceliBarone again: "Warhammer signals a certain amount of wealth, but possibly low physical fitness, excessive risk aversion, lack of ambition, poor social skills. These are not necessarily implied by playing Warhammer, but if you had high physical fitness, less risk aversion, ambition, good social skills you would be probably doing something else. Warhammer is maybe a particularly bad signal, because it implies that you have above average intelligence, and yet you are using it on something useless, hence you are probably psychologically abnormal." Strength 10 hit, multiple wounds, no saves of any kind allowed. 🔲

Twitter frogs were right about the Lab Leak Hypothesis, experts were (and still are IMO) wrong. Why? Because these kinds of questions are not like winning at chess or proving theorems.

Lock them up, weld the doors shut.

Race issues in The West aren't really about race, they're about class. Western society had some kind of implicit social contract between the lower class (the chavs/rednacks) and the upper middle/upper class. That broke down and the upper/upper middle class used race as a weapon.

It's a signalling game. Tattoos on a woman = I will sleep around Colored hair on a woman = I have mental illness/borderline personality disorder [Colored hair on a man is a bit more ambiguous]

Only married white men with families should be allowed guns. Mass shootings would be negligible, firearm homicides would fall by 99% The problem is not the second amendment, it's that it is being applied to a nation it wasn't designed for.

Quite a few people respond to pro-truth arguments with "what then?". This is a better disguised form of the appeal to consequences fallacy. The answer is that it doesn't matter, you believe what's true 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵'𝘴 𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘦, not because it has some nice consequence.

There would be huge gains to creating a large club that filtered people on human biodiversity (e.g. low criminality, at least average IQ, etc) and bought up all the houses in a really, really deprived area and then coordinated everyone to settle there.

In my opinion there are two outcomes for race relations in the Western world. (1) White people cease to exist (2) White people form a parallel state that excludes nonwhites and has the explicit goal of preserving white people & European culture

Oh my. I know almost all of this. That means we need to go deeper.