Father of 3, husband, & energy investor. Proponent of the Canadian energy patch & occasional market commentator. bit.ly/2ukaOCr
Toronto, Ontario
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Highlights from my testimony to the House of Commons’ Standing Committee on Natural Resources - opening statement
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"No other oil and gas producer country is doing what we are doing."
-Minister Steven Guilbeault
Stop for a second and ask...why is that?!?
canada.ca/en/environment-cli…
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Can someone explain to me how clearcutting Canadian forests to turn into wood pellets (ie. biomass) to ship to the UK to burn in power plants is ESG friendly, yet Canadian natural gas, produced to the highest environmental standards in the world, is not??? bbc.in/3M1bNKX
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I reiterate, when you are the only oil producing nation on the planet capping your production, perhaps you should stop and ask…”why is that???”
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PM Carney just confirmed that a 4th term Liberal government will NOT repeal Bill C-69 which makes it impossible for another oil pipeline (or major energy project) to ever be built again. It is imperative that we build more pipelines to both coasts to reduce our customer concentration risk and break our reliance on the US. Not doing so costs billions of dollars per year and risks our very sovereignty. The world needs more Canadian energy…let’s bring it home!
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Canada is in economic trouble. Under the Trudeau government GDP per capita is flat, productivity growth is the lowest in the G7, and debt per Canadian is up >35%. To place a de-facto production cap on a sector that = ~15% of the Canadian economy (costing 51,000 fewer jobs and ~$45BN/year in lost GDP) is economic treason.
We zealously attack a sector that makes up only 0.1% of global emissions when 1 year of Chinese coal plant growth would completely wipe out our efforts. For what gain then?
Industry cannot even vocally defend itself now under existing law (C-59) that threatens oil and gas companies with fines = 3% of global revenue per "offense" of speaking up about their environmental leadership.
I believe the demand for oil will grow much longer and stronger than consensus believes. With non-OPEC production expected to peak in 2027 and Canada's high environmental standing, we are part of the global "solution", not the "problem."
To willingly cede market share to others, many of whom do not respect the environment, is purposeless, self-inflicted economic repression. The world needs MORE, not less Canadian energy.
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Canada could be the richest country in the world if government just got out of the way and let our world-class energy companies get things built again. To do so we must:
🇨🇦 repeal Bill C-69 which prevents any new pipeline/energy project from being built
🇨🇦eliminate the production cap which willingly cedes market share to our competitors
🇨🇦eliminate the industrial carbon tax and instead rely on proven technologies
Let's bring it home!
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To those wanting to cap Canada's oil production, I ask you this: in a world in which oil demand will in my opinion grow for at least 10 years, where do you want it to come from? Canada, home to the most ethical oil in the world, or Russia, who is bombing innocent people? Choose!
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It’s refreshing to hear such an energy-literate politician, especially when that person is likely to become Canada’s next Prime Minister in the coming months which should lead to the elimination of the Canadian political risk discount in our energy stocks.
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With cruise missiles flying in Ukraine, the US today will still buy ~$62MM of Russian oil. And tomorrow. Is this a "wake up" moment for US energy policy with a safe and reliable neighbour to the North that has the world's 3rd largest oil reserves...time to revisit KXL???
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I’m leaving Qatar impressed at what a country that embraces (and not demonizes) their energy sector can achieve: zero income/sales tax, GDP up 10x in 20 years, amazing infrastructure, and a high standard of living (2.8x more doctors per capita than Canada). Source: Qatar govt.
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I really enjoyed my conversation with @PierrePoilievre on how Canada can build more pipelines, champion our oilsands, meaningfully grow our LNG industry, and remove the perceived political risk discount in our energy stocks.
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The very definition of energy ignorance: cancelling a major pipeline that would have provided needed supply from a trusted neighbour...then 6 months later demanding more supply from OPEC.
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The anger is real. I feel increasingly confident that today's attack on Canada's sovereignty has cemented public opinion about the necessity for more oil pipelines that circumvent the United States. Logistics will get sorted out...we have the means and after today the will.
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Thankful for the oilfield workers who are willingly enduring this brutal cold so that my family can stay warm!
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No other country would do this to themselves.
cbc.ca/news/politics/no-oil-…
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When we are the only oil producing country in the world doing this, perhaps we should pause for a moment and ask "why is that?"
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There are countries whom have successfully leveraged their resource wealth to enrich their citizens, and then there is Canada. Stymieing our energy sector with self-flagellation has made us poorer and vulnerable. The path to a stronger country -> building more oil pipelines now.
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The Canadian oilsands represent ~0.1% of global CO2 emissions. In a world in which the demand for oil will I believe grow for many years to come, any action by a government to cap production should be considered economic treason.
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As our focus begins to shift from stocks to stockings, from my family to yours, I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
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The multi-year oil bull market will result in an oil price that is both high enough to kill discretionary demand while encouraging necessary long-cycle investment. Windfall profit taxes only defer the critically necessary production response…energy ignorance at its finest.
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It’s not every day you get to bounce your “multi-year oil bull market thesis” off His Royal Highness, Abdulaziz bin Salman, Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, a thoughtful and caring gentleman. For me, today was that day, and only @CroftHelima of RBC could have arranged it!
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Outstanding speech by @aramco CEO on energy ignorance, the exhaustion of spare capacity, and the ongoing lack of sufficient capital investment. We remain bullish. aramco.com/en/news-media/spe…
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The Canadian oil & gas sector has much to be proud of, yet this Bill would make it ILLEGAL and subject to up to 2 years in jail / $1MM fine to promote our industry's successes, or even state the obvious fact that LNG is a cleaner energy source than coal! I'll need my own GoFundMe page if this Bill passes...unreal.
parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44…
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Canada didn't see the business case in LNG, but Qatar sure did! This could have been us, and Canadians will lose out on ~$100MM/year in taxes/royalties on this one deal alone. Energy ignorance has consequences! bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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RBC: CDN O&G sector to pay $64BN in royalties and taxes in '23. That is enough to build 64,000 hospital beds or 1,600 schools. All from producing one of the highest rated ESG barrels in the world, at a time when the world needs MORE Canadian energy. Pretty compelling, no???
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I’m sad for Canada tonight. How can we as a country inhibit massive investment that would have created 1,000’s of jobs and $10’s of billions in taxes for school and hospital construction? All for what? What we cede others will fill. The world needs more CDN energy. What a loss.
It's official. Here's Teck's letter to Trudeau's environment minister saying they're pulling plug on Frontier oil-sands mine teck.com/media/Don-Lindsay-l… #cdnpoli #cdnecon
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How can anyone believe that growing Canadian natural gas production, done so to the highest ESG standards in the world, in order to displace Asian/European coal usage, is NOT a good thing??? I don't get it.
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Speaking oil pipelines with Canada's leading candidate for next elected Prime Minister. Pledges of expanding oil egress by eliminating C-69 (no more "gender-based analyses" for pipelines) and guaranteeing timely, reasonable review processes were made. Let's bring it home!
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Canada can never, ever be in a position to be threatened like this again. Our "trump card" is the unleashing of our enormous resource potential with the buildout of new oil pipelines. Read why in my 29th column for the @financialpost: financialpost.com/commoditie…
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How is it possible that a tube of steel that moves a product everyone on the planet uses in ever increasing quantities, whose revenue accounts for 20% of Canadian exports, and whose increasing capacity could lift 100,000's of Canadians out of poverty, became so controversial???
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To those who call Canadian oil "dirty", can you identify another country that would even contemplate spending $50MM to move anthills and frogs while also protecting "rare moss" by removing and replacing it BY HAND?!?!? The world needs MORE Canadian energy!
H/T to @Rory_Johnston.
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The Albertan oil and gas sector is the lifeblood of the Canadian economy. Recent events should be a wakeup call for all Canadians to this reality. With more oil pipelines accessing both coasts, we would never be threatened like this again.
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Scott Sheffield, the former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, the shale company thought to have (had) the deepest inventory depth: "one of the main reasons that Pioneer sold was...we were running out of Tier 1 inventory. Everybody is running out of Tier 1 inventory. People don't talk about the fact that we are running out of inventory." The twilight of US shale is upon us.
msn.com/en-us/money/news/pio…
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With 2021 slowly coming to a close, from my family to yours, we wish you a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!!!
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20 years ago today, a kid realized his boyhood dream and walked down Bay Street, briefcase in hand, for the very first time. I’m eternally grateful to Eric Sprott and JF Tardif for giving me the shot, and to Ninepoint for their partnership. What a ride so far…
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Canadians have finally woken up to the strategic necessity of building more oil pipelines that will reduce our customer concentration risk, narrow our price discount, and unleash our full resource potential to the benefit of all Canadians! financialpost.com/commoditie…
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Michelangelo himself could not have painted a picture of an "energy crisis" better than this...
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S&P: if the Liberals go ahead with their oil and gas emissions plan, it will mean 17% less production, 51,000 fewer jobs, $74BN less investment, and cost Canada $247BN in lost GDP ('24-'35) and $45BN/year thereafter (!!!). This is the very definition of economic treason.
capp.ca/wp-content/uploads/2…
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There is no energy transition. In the history of humanity, other than whale oil, we have NEVER transitioned away from an energy source. The demand for oil, natural gas, coal, and even wood is at all-time highs. There has only ever been energy expansion. While the mix may change, the net demand for hydrocarbons will IMO grow much longer than consensus believes due to population growth, rising living standards, urbanization, and new sources of demand.
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Non-energy tweet. I’m pro-immigration YET right now, a mere 20 minute drive from my home where my 3 kids are sleeping, there is a mob of Canadians (?) protesting the death of a known brutish terrorist who has killed many? What the hell is happening?
Hezbollah flag being waved at the pro Iranian terrorist demonstration in Toronto.
Read more: bit.ly/2QqSorP
#Hezbollah #cdnpoli #topoli #QasemSoleimani #Iran
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Canada could be as green and wealthy as Qatar and Saudi Arabia if the government wakes up, and instead of vilifying the oil and gas sectors, Canada should champion them. Read why in my 28th column for the @financialpost: financialpost.com/commoditie…
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This is the year I believe we see energy investors sell the Permian to buy the Canadian oilsands. To me, the single best opportunity on the planet is in buying long-dated reserves for which, due to energy ignorance, you can get decades worth of free cashflow for free.
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Energy ignorance has consequences. No one would be threatening Canada with tariffs if we had greater access to non-US markets for our oil via pipelines like Northern Gateway and Energy East. Peak non-OPEC = massive strategic value in the future. Time to get things built again.
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Oil trading down $3/bbl because OPEC forecasts oil demand to "only" grow by 2.2MM Bbl/d in 2023? Really?!? Why are so few asking the obvious question: where exactly are the incremental barrels going to come from??? A thread.
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I've accepted an offer to write a regular column for the @financialpost. My hope is to further champion the Canadian energy sector and to provide some needed balance/practical reality to the conversations of energy transition and decarbonization. Send me ideas for future columns!
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Picasso, Rembrandt, Monet...none of them could have painted a better picture of an "energy crisis" than this.
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When I was early in my career, I would always read the Report on Business magazine’s profiles of fund managers, like Rohit Sehgal and Eric Sprott, to glean any nuggets of wisdom that I could. 19 years later, it’s pretty humbling to see this article run in this month’s edition.
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What happens when a market that is already short oil, and now trying to wean off of Russian supply, realizes that OPEC is close to running out of spare capacity?
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Oil is Canada's largest export by far ($100BN per year/15%-20% of all exports). Oil demand is set to grow to at least 2050 while key suppliers like US shale have entered their twilight, meaning Canada is one of the few remaining non-OPEC producers with the ability to grow production. Canada will however run out of incremental pipeline capacity by ~2031, impacting both price differentials and our ability to satisfy demand growth. To not prioritize another Canadian pipeline speaks volumes about this Government's priorities, and to how eco-evangelism continues to pervert our ability to make logical, economically wise decisions, resulting in ongoing economic self-flagellation. The PM's recent dismissive behaviour about building a pipeline only further corroborates this. Any intent to ransom industry by tying a new pipeline to industry spending $20BN+ on Pathways at a time when China's NEW coal plant buildout in just one year = 2/3 of Canada's total power grid (3% coal fired) will only lead to continued capital flight, less growth = less incremental royalties and taxes, and less competitive barrels at a time when the majority of the world is pivoting away from "net-zero by 2050" and instead is squarely focused on energy affordability and availability.
cbc.ca/news/politics/second-…
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Today the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that Bill C-69, the "no more pipelines bill", was largely unconstitutional. This ruling could mark a significant turning point in Canada's approach to oil and gas production (for the positive), helping to remove the political risk discount applied to CDN energy stocks. Also, is the imminent emissions cap proposal now not so imminent???
scc-csc.ca/case-dossier/cb/2…
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My compliance department would not approve the word I wanted to use to describe my thoughts on this.
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From my family to yours, we wish you a very Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a healthy and prosperous New Year.
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His Royal Highness Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud is the Taylor Swift of energy: a master of his craft and as the 2nd most powerful man in the energy world after The Crown Prince, quite literally the “hottest ticket in town.” Were it not for his capable leadership in 2020 many Canadian oil companies would not have survived, and we continue to benefit from his “will” and “intent.” I admire his intelligence, candour, and humbleness, and appreciate him sharing his time. Special thanks to RBC and @CroftHelima, another demonstration of how they dominate the Canadian energy sector.
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Yes, there is a strong business case for Canadian LNG. Read how we can both lower global emissions and rain an abundance of royalties and taxes down upon all Canadians in my 26th column for the @financialpost. financialpost.com/commoditie…
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On the same day that OPEC forecasted oil demand growth to 2050, our esteemed Minister in charge of Canada's energy sector, home to the 3rd largest oil reserves in the world and a sector responsible for ~15% of Canada's GDP, declared that "oil and gas will peak this decade, in fact oil is probably peaking this year." Such a profound display of energy ignorance and resulting poor policies are in my opinion a reason why Canadian energy stocks trade at a discount to global peers, and one that should disappear after the next election.
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Our call for YE'22 $100WTI was clearly wrong. We remain bullish on oil and oil stocks for 2023 because we believe:
1) Recessionary fears on oil are overblown
2) US shale will continue to disappoint
3) Oil inventories will continue to fall
4) Energy stocks are profoundly mispriced
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Someone help me out! OPEC spare capacity exhaustion in 2 months then 5 years for Saudi to add 1MM Bbl/d, US shale capped at 0.6-0.8MM Bbl/d per year, and supermajors flat. With annual demand growth of 1+MM Bbl/d...where exactly are the barrels supposed to come from???
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I’m not ashamed to admit it…watching “whale oil” trade at $90 a barrel, a ~ 8 year high…it almost brought about a tear.
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Oil price hitting its lowest level YTD while global oil inventories hit their lowest levels...as far back as Kpler dataset goes. Amazing.
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The European energy crisis is a "teachable moment" for Canadian energy policy makers. The world needs MORE, not less of Canada's clean and ethically produced oil and natural gas. Read more in my 19th column for the @financialpost. financialpost.com/commoditie…
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HUGE draw from US inventories with "Big 3" falling by 15.7MM Bbls, marking a new low...on the very same day that OPEC+ cuts production. Amazing!
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Boom!!! A second CDN company (trading at a 34% FCF yield in '23 at $100WTI) pledging 100% of free cashflow to be returned to shareholders in the next year (50% by Q3/22)! This is the MEANINGFUL action we've been calling for to shake the generalist from their apathetic coma!
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There is no energy transition. You cannot transition to something when there is neither a universally economic nor technically feasible alternative. Energy demand has NEVER fallen, and the world needs an "all of the above" answer. To say otherwise in my opinion is energy ignorant, intentionally disingenuous, or delusional.
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Energy policy decision making, ignorant to the energy realities that we face, including the likely timeline of any oil alternative to reach critical mass, will and are having profound long-term consequences. Time for greater energy literacy!
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If you are currently heating your home or cooking for your family, thank a Canadian oilfield worker!
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Rather than attacking our oilsands, which generate 0.1% of global CO2 emissions, why don't we triple our LNG production = lower net emissions by 88MM tons of C02 (equivalent to 38MM cars vs. 36MM registered vehicles in all of Canada!) + generate ~$1.6BN in royalties/taxes a year!
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An energy crisis, years in the making, portrayed in 1 simple graph. Are energy policy makers finally waking up???
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Fiction: "We don't need their (Canadian) oil"
-President Trump, January 23, 2025
Facts:
🛢️The US will consume ~20.5MM Bbl/d in 2025 vs. production of ~13.6MM Bbl/d (crude and condensate) = import dependent
🛢️Canada = 60% of US oil imports, and just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH
🛢️US refineries are built to run on heavy oil vs. US crude production which is (increasingly) light API
🛢️Mid-Western refineries import ~3MM Bbl/d of Canadian heavy connected via pipeline, with no at-scale alternative via barge or truck
🛢️excluding energy the US has a trade SURPLUS of $58BN with Canada
🛢️"drill, baby drill" is toothless: US Shale co's are handcuffed by their investors/inventory scarcity
🛢️Even the US Government (EIA) is forecasting dramatically lower shale growth rates ahead
🛢️Tariffing Canadian heavy oil, while also sanctioning Venezuela, Iran, and Russia is not consistent with a low oil price
🛢️Tariffs are inflationary and not consistent with "demanding lower interest rates"
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I was privileged to meet His Excellency, Saad al-Kaabi, Minister of State for Energy of Qatar (soon the world’s largest LNG exporter) in Doha, to discuss his bullish long-term outlook for the global natural gas market. Qatar definitely sees the “business case” for LNG.
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Canada is purportedly set to print a $100BN deficit and China built NEW coal fired capacity last year = 2/3 of our total grid (of which 3% is coal), yet we still allow eco-evangelism to prevent the building of new pipelines that are clearly in the nation’s best interest. 🤦🏼♂️
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It's a mystery to me why the energy sector remains so hated and ignored. No other sector remotely comes close to comparing: lowest debt + highest profitability, combined with highest free cashflow and months away from 75%-100% return of capital inflection.
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"Oil is dead" and "Tar sands are condemned"...such incredibly uninformed statements to make about a sector that will once again be a major engine of growth for Canada. The world needs more Canadian energy.
'Oil is dead': @ElizabethMay & @yfblanchet warn Ottawa against supporting Alberta's oilpatch.
Read more: cbc.ca/1.5557725
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Don't try to make sense of it, because I can't. Recessionary fears, sell the winners, need for liquidity, who knows? What keeps me sane? At an oil price $10 lower than spot, my avg. holding is trading at a 1.9EV/CF and a 34% FCF yield, and we are going to get most/all of it soon.
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If OXY trading at an estimated 22% free cashflow yield at $100WTI gets Buffett this excited...imagine how I feel being able to accumulate Canadian midcaps trading at 35%+ FCF yields!!!
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At the current oil price the CDN energy sector is debt free by mid-2023. Think about that! Awash in cash, long on inventory, it will literally have a cash problem...too much of it. What do do? Buybacks and dividends. Q1 results should mark the beginning of the "golden era of FCF"
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Imagine a sector that is so awash in cash that it could become debt free in less than a year, and then pay a dividend yield 21x higher than the S&P500. Would you call that a "generational opportunity"???
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EVs to the rescue? ~125,000kms for an EV to reach emissions neutrality vs. combustion engine. Average Canadian only drives 15,200km/year and owns a car for 13 years. So, a whopping net 1.7 metric ton/y reduction over life of car = 42MM metric tons/y = 7% national drop at 100% EVs
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The hardest part sometimes is just to sit on your hands, and not trip over pennies on your way to dollars.
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Big win for Canadian energy stocks this afternoon as our base case long argued, that energy would be exempted from US tariffs, has come to fruition.
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In one month we have the opportunity to eliminate the political risk discount applied to our energy stocks by voting for:
🇨🇦repealing the pipeline killing C-69 legislation (and C-48/59) and declaring key energy projects in the "national interest"
🇨🇦scrapping the self-flagellating oil production cap that will cost 40,000 jobs and $20.5BN in lost GDP
🇨🇦building more oil pipelines to both coasts to crucially diversify our customer base
🇨🇦eliminating any risk of windfall taxes on the energy sector by choosing a pro-energy PM
🇨🇦recognizing the "business case" in LNG
Let's bring it home!
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Another $1/bbl higher in oil by Monday and I'm handing out FULL SIZE chocolate bars this Halloween!
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The new Minister of Energy & Natural Resources presented this morning to the Calgary energy community. His comments were encouraging, rationale, and pragmatic:
"Canada will no longer be defined by delay, we will be defined by delivery"
"every barrel of responsibly produced Canadian oil can displace riskier energy elsewhere in the world and break dependence on authoritarian regimes and reduce emissions"
"conventional and clean energy superpower"
"get more barrels to market while cutting emissions"
"we need infrastructure that gets our product to tidewater...diversifying beyond the US"
"we need energy security for all of Canada - Eastern Canada needs better security"
"energy is Canada's superpower"
"this relationship matters and I'm committed to a clean slate"
"the Canadian energy industry is the best in the world, we will treat it that way, let's keep it that way"
"my door is open, I want you to bring your ideas, bring your ambitions, and together we will build"
Reading between the lines: pipelines to the West, big emphasis on Pathways, and surprising to me...Energy East or some version thereof.
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First, reported Nord Stream sabotage, and now increased sightings of drones near offshore oil platforms, at a time when OPEC spare capacity is exhausted and global oil inventories sit at a multi-year low, yet ZERO risk premium in the oil price. Talk about apathy...
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"OPEC+ put" in place, SPR ending in 2 months, EU Russia oil embargo December 5th, China starting to re-open, seasonally strongest Q for oil demand, and near debt-free energy stocks trading at a 23%/27% free cashflow yields at $90/$100. What more Mr. Generalist do you need???
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