Bitcoin | Venekistano 🇻🇪 | Senior BD @luxor | ex CMO & Co Founder @eldoradoio | ex PMM @hodlwithledn | Author @hashrateindex & @BitcoinMagazine
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Ingenieros venezolanos con décadas de experiencia en el SEN están analizando el acuerdo IMPSA-Corpoelec en detalle.
No desde afuera. Desde adentro.
Sus números confirman lo que muchos sabemos y sus advertencias son dignas de ser consideradas.
Primero, lo que confirman.
El costo estimado para la Fase I del acuerdo, las tres unidades de Macagua I (3x80 MW = 240 MW) más las dos primeras turbinas de Tocoma (2x216 MW = 432 MW), oscila entre $80 y $150 millones dependiendo del nivel de obsolescencia que se encuentre en los equipos.
Para terminar Tocoma al 100%, desde el 87% actual hasta el 100%, los estimados van desde $900 millones según el Ing. César Cardozo, uno de los sobrevivientes de EDELCA, hasta más de $2.000 millones según otros expertos.
La diferencia importa porque esos recursos adicionales tendrán que venir de capital privado internacional bajo la nueva LOSSE.
El acuerdo está estructurado correctamente desde el punto de vista financiero. Los fondos se manejan desde EE.UU. a través de dos cuentas segregadas en formato de fideicomiso, una para Tocoma y otra para Macagua, con recursos liberados del Estado venezolano en el exterior.
IMPSA cobra por hito terminado, previamente auditado y autorizado. No hay anticipos. Los bancos custodios americanos liberan el dinero directamente al proveedor conforme se certifiquen los avances de obra. El dinero no toca el Banco Central de Venezuela.
IMPSA tiene una ventaja técnica que pocos tienen: es el diseñador original de las turbinas Kaplan de doble regulación de Tocoma y las turbinas Francis de Macagua I. Tiene los planos y las patentes. Eso reduce el riesgo de ingeniería y justifica que puedan reemplazar componentes obsoletos con tecnología nueva. También contempla un sistema SCADA en Tocoma que transmitirá datos en tiempo real del comportamiento de las turbinas de forma remota.
Ahora las advertencias que nadie está publicando.
El eslabón más débil del acuerdo no es IMPSA. Es Corpoelec.
Corpoelec tiene dos responsabilidades críticas que no puede delegar a IMPSA: las reparaciones civiles y estructurales de lo que dejó inconcluso el consorcio OIV, incluyendo remoción de sedimentos, mantenimiento del concreto deteriorado y sellado de filtraciones en la presa.
La reposición y puesta a punto de la subestación Tocoma de 400 kV, que fue parcialmente desmantelada por la propia Corpoelec. Se retiraron equipos de potencia del patio, esquemas de protección digitales y la subestación ha sufrido robo de cable de control y deterioro de tableros. Todo el equipamiento es Siemens y la firma española TSK fue contratista responsable. Tenía más del 90% de avance cuando fue desmantelada.
Si Corpoelec no cumple sus trabajos en tiempo, IMPSA se lava las manos y cobra gastos de paralización por retrasos imputables al contratante. Eso significa dinero gastado en penalidades en lugar de megavatios.
Otro problema real: la brecha generacional de ingeniería.
Los ingenieros que construyeron Guri, Macagua y Caruachi en los años 70, 80 y 90, los llamados sobrevivientes de EDELCA, tienen entre 65 y 85 años hoy. Quedan aproximadamente 140 en todo el país.
Son los únicos con el conocimiento profundo para supervisar una obra de la complejidad de Tocoma. Se habla de crear un Consejo Consultivo Senior de entre 25 y 40 de estos ingenieros, pagados a través de las mismas cuentas internacionales del proyecto. Esa es la solución correcta. Pero no existe todavía.
Dicha solución es similar en naturaleza a mi propuesta de conformar el GERSEN. Grupo de Emergencia para la Recuperación del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional.
Y el impacto real sobre los apagones merece calibración honesta.
Añadir generación en el Bajo Caroní mejora el sistema, pero no de manera uniforme en todo el país. El experto lo dice con precisión: la mejora se notará más fundamentalmente en el oriente del país. Las restricciones de transmisión existentes en la línea de 765 kV no desaparecen con más generación en Guri.
Ya se están violando los límites de transmisión todos los días. Inyectar más MW en el Bajo Caroní sin resolver el cuello de botella de transmisión tiene efectos limitados sobre el racionamiento en Caracas, en el centro y en el occidente del país.
Eso es precisamente el argumento de fondo para la minería de Bitcoin industrial co-localizada en el Bajo Caroní.
Cada MW que un centro de minado absorbe en las inmediaciones de Guri es un MW que no tiene que viajar 800 kilómetros por una línea que ya está al límite. Es electricidad convertida en dólares en sitio, sin tocar la transmisión, sin afectar a ningún hogar y atrae más capital para la reconstrucción del SEN.
Esos dólares pueden financiar parte de las licitaciones privadas bajo la nueva LOSSE que necesita Corpoelec para terminar Tocoma del 87% al 100%. Porque si la ANDE en Paraguay genera el 60% de sus ingresos con 1 GW de minería de Bitcoin, Corpoelec y Venezuela pueden hacerlo también.
GE Vernova reconstruye las termoeléctricas. IMPSA termina Tocoma. La minería de Bitcoin monetiza el excedente que la transmisión no puede llevar al norte mientras todo eso ocurre.
Tres procesos en paralelo. Los tres necesarios y complementarios.
FIN. 🇻🇪⚡₿
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In Venezuela today you need 465 trillion Bolívares (Bs.) to buy $1.
My family would be fucked without #Bitcoin.
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Honduras may be the next country to make #Bitcoin legal tender. 🇭🇳
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This year El Salvador will flip Venezuela in terms of GDP.
The smallest country in South America, beating the one with the biggest oil reserves in the world, thanks to #Bitcoin and democracy.
💊 🇸🇻 > 🛢️🇻🇪
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Russia legalized #Bitcoin as a currency faster than the U.S. Game on!
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"I think the Internet is going to be one of the major forces for reducing the role of government. The only thing that's missing is a reliable form of e-cash" - Friedman
#Bitcoin
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BREAKING: Mercadolibre, South America's biggest ecomerce platform, has enabled buy #Bitcoin services in Brazil.
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BREAKING: El Salvador's government is looking to provide #Bitcoin-backed loans to small and mid-sized businesses.
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"I am convinced that we shall never haver decent money again before we take from governments the monopoly of issuing money" - Hayek
#Bitcoin
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🇦🇷 My family and I have moved to Argentina.
I lived under socialism for 27 years in Venezuela 🇻🇪, and my wife for 20+ in Brazil 🇧🇷
We left searching for freedom, and support @JMilei to make Argentina the freest country on earth.
¡VIVA LA LIBERTAD CARAJO!
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February is here, #Bitcoin volcano bonds are coming! 🌋 🇸🇻
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Accepting #Bitcoin in El Salvador is free and purely optional.
These are Ana and Carla, they sell pupusas and coffee on the street for $1, and because they have a @chivowallet you can pay them using Lightning.⚡️
🇸🇻 🌋 👍
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30 freaking trillion dollars in debt.💸
How the heck can you not own #Bitcoin knowing this?
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In Argentina +2.000.000 people own #Bitcoin, which is 5X the number of Argentinians that own legacy financial instruments like stocks or bonds.
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237 million Brazilians will now need to find a way to escape currency devaluation.
#Bitcoin is hope for Brazil. 🇧🇷
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BOOM 🤯 now that @DIRECTVVE no longer provides services inside Venezuela 🇻🇪 I’m finally going offline by setting up my own #Bitcoin Satellite 📡 Full node connected to @Blockstream Eutelsat South American Satellite. I love you ❤️ #bitcoin you’re helping my family stay alive!
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$1 is trading for 2.5 quadrillion Bolivars in Venezuela today 🇻🇪
My family and I would be fucked if we hadn’t saved in Bitcoin.
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Just got running up a #bitcoin satellite full node.
Using one of @Blockstream's Satellite Pro Kit's, I'm now downloading blocks from space in Caracas, Venezuela. 🇻🇪 ⛓️ 📡 🌌 🛰️
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Only idiots in Rio De Janeiro will pay their taxes using #Bitcoin, in exchange for a 10% discount.
The Brazilian Real lost 10% of its value last year, that's your discount.
Always pay in fiat, keep your BTC!
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In 2008 my family lost almost all of our life savings to three US banks. 🏦
We went to court & the FDIC didn’t pay us shit!
Then the Venezuelan governments wiped our currency.
My pops and I mined Bitcoin in 2013, never stopped stacking, and today we’ve saved our family 🇻🇪🧡
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I'm grateful for how much #Bitcoin has helped me take care of my family in Venezuela 🇻🇪
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Credit Suisse going bankrupt is absurdly bullish for #Bitcoin
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Bitcoin will be a +$10 Trillion monetary network.
If El Salvador captures 1% of it over the next 10 years the country could grow its GDP by more than 367% or 16.67%/year.
Since the 90s El Salvador's economy has grown at a rate of ~2%/year.
Yup, #Bitcoin can 10x nations too!
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Venezuelans can’t send or receive international wires.
Another reason why #Bitcoin’s a lifesaver in the country. 🇻🇪
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My wife and I are leaving Brazil 🇧🇷 to move to Argentina. 🇦🇷
I lived under socialism for 27 years in Venezuela, and left searching for freedom. 🇻🇪
We favor @JMilei and everything he’s doing to fix the economy, and make the country the freest on earth.
¡VIVA LA LIBERTAD CARAJO!
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I'll be buying much more than $30 in #bitcoin on Sep 7 🌋
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🇹🇴 Tonga will be the next country to make #Bitcoin legal tender. Bitcoiners will then travel to the country to boost it. 🚀
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#bitcoin became the first open source space-ready infrastructure after @Blockstream connected the most powerful monetary network to 5 satellites. 🛰
Here’s a thread 🧵 with some daylight pics and insights of my #bitcoin Satellite Full Node setup. /1
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My sister just texted me because she was trying to buy a juice in Caracas, Venezuela but they only accepted #bitcoin or Venezuelan Bolívares (Bs.) for payments. Wow!
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The goal is to implement the 1-#BTC-per-head rule in your family
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You should not underestimate Vladimir Putin. He just made a smart move on #Bitcoin.
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Last weekend I started teaching my 9 years old nephew what a #bitcoin Full Node is. This weekend has been all about the Lightning Network ⚡.
I'm amazed by how quickly he gets it!
It's impossible to spot what next generations will achieve with Bitcoin.
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Germany is now banning energy price increases.
Same thing happened in Venezuela, and the end result is catastrophic inflation!
If you’re European you’d better be stacking some #Bitcoin in cold storage.
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Push and stack like a MF until you own 1 #BTC for your son/daughter.
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🇦🇷 Today my family got our permanent residence in Argentina approved!
I spent 27 years living socialism in Venezuela 🇻🇪, and in my wife’s case 20+ in Brazil 🇧🇷
We’re happy here and support @JMilei to make Argentina the freest country on earth.
¡VIVA LA LIBERTAD CARAJO!
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Debemos reemplazar el uso del término “Pueblo” por “Ciudadanía” pues eso es lo que somos en un democracia.
“Pueblo” es lo que usan los socialistas.
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In 2008 my Venezuelan family lost almost all of our life savings to three US banks. 🏦
The FDIC didn’t pay us shit! We went to court, banks extended the case until we bled our savings.
The financial system is dirty, only way to avoid counterparty risk is #btc cold storage. 🔐
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Binance powers 90% of Venezuela’s remittances. Every single informal money transmitter in the country uses #USDTether via Binance P2P.
If Binance fails, millions of Venezuelans will have to learn the importance of #Bitcoin self-custody the hard way.
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PayPal requires you to have a US phone number if you're from South America.
Another reason why #Bitcoin will continue thriving as a global savings mechanism. 🌐
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In Venezuela today you need 1.7 quadrillion Bolívares (Bs.) to buy $1.
My family would be screwed without #Bitcoin
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Accepting #Bitcoin is optional in El Salvador, and Ana and Carla chose to accept it.
They save in BTC by receiving it as payment for their pupusas and morning coffee.☕
Here's their QR code generated with @chivowallet. They're happy that president @nayibbukele RTd them 🤛🏻
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$1 is worth 2.9 quadrillion Venezuelan Bolivars rn 🇻🇪
1 sat’s worth more than a Bs.
My family and I would be completely f* if we hadn’t found #bitcoin
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I just received my @Blockstream #Bitcoin Satellite Pro Kit.
I will be connecting to Satellite 🛰 Eutelsat 113 from Santos, Brazil 🇧🇷 very soon!
Massive kudos to @Excellion, the whole teams at Blockstream and @hodlwithLedn for this unique opportunity.
Let’s play 📡 🛰 🔥🏆🎉
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I’m close to getting a #Bitcoin Satellite Full Node running from Brazil 🇧🇷- stay tuned
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I tell my #bitcoin stories publicly because if you're not Venezuelan you don't understand what the collapse of a currency looks like. We're literally people filled with life-changing stories due to an enforced abnormal reality that was imposed to us.
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we’re finally entering the absolute scarcity phase of #bitcoin
flocks of people are coming, institutions are coming, states are coming, exchanges BTC balances are being sucked by long term holders
you and i, we’re both not ready for the next parabolic move
🚀
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Headed to Brazil, São Paulo.
Plan is to:
• Run a Satellite Full Node in BR 🇧🇷
• Provide Bitcoin lessons for 🆓 in Portuguese
#bitcoin runs through my veins.
This will be fun ✨🎉🎊
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Actually, these are 10,000 PUBLIC #Bitcoin Full nodes. There's +100,000 Full Nodes including the ones that are not public
This map shows distribution of reachable #Bitcoin nodes found in countries around the world.
There's about 10,000 nodes protecting the network right now, and each one has an entire copy of the #Bitcoin ledger that they use to enforce and validate the rules.
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I wouldn't be open to raising a family if it weren't for #Bitcoin.
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You invest in Bitcoin to include it in your portfolio. 💼
I was forced to save in Bitcoin due to my country's currency collapse. 🇻🇪
We're not same, yet Bitcoin is for everyone! 🌎
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Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Cuba, Venezuela now have a leftist president.
Socialist love printing money to run their social programs.
LatAm needs a #Bitcoin standard.
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Me and my family lost almost all of our savings in 2008. They were all deposited within U.S. banks. Leaving them in Venezuela would have been worse.
After a couple of years, when I was old enough and experienced to start investing, I converted all of our savings into #Bitcoin
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More than 6 million Venezuelans have left the country 🇻🇪. Most of them don't own a bank account and are struggling to become legal residents elsewhere.
Little by little these people will discover the #bitcoin alternative and create remarkable and inspiring use cases worldwide 🌎
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Twitter is crying and calling for pain, so it's time to buy #Bitcoin.
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As a Venezuelan 🇻🇪 Bitcoin-only advocate, who lived through hyperinflation, I can say:
- Many Venezuelans stopped using Bitcoin, and moved to USDT after Binance P2P launched with 0 fees in the country.
The reason is twofold and simple:
1. It made live easier for P2P market makers, as it allowed them to remove BTC’s price swings from their PNL math
2. People without enough savings or income, typically just convert to dollars to later spend them - i.e. people in emerging countries have a higher time preference
- Trust me if you haven’t lived under hyperinflation then you don’t know that by the time a currency is fucked, people will take any alternative they’re offered
Conclusion: more financial and Bitcoin education in emerging markets is still needed.
24 hours in Argentina and seeing how people move money around, from Peso to Dollar / Bitcoin / Dollars on shitcoin networks, it is clear that people in a currency crisis use whatever they can.
Sorry, while #Bitcoin is important here, so is Tether on Tron/Polygon/Ethereum.
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We’re both from Venezuela, and we’re here to keep pushing for #Bitcoin til the end. Great meeting you Ángela! 🇧🇷
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#Bitcoin Block 700,000 was mined on 9/11. Talk about freedom
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