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I will start posting at the same time here and on blue sky.
This is me there:
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This is Russia's only domestic fiber optic producer. Posting it for no reason at all.
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1/I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behavior towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars.
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10/This didn't seem that crazy in the Kremlin because the prevailing thought in the higher echelons and Putin's inner circle and the FSB was one highly dismissive of Ukraine highly hyped up by Russian army propaganda reporting. They missed that they were buying their own bullshit
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3/Secondly it seems the decision making structrues have low opinion in general of Ukraine and their fighting abilities and sort of an ideal that there's a willing subservience in Ukranians if they get to be part of Russia. Pure racism informing their decision making process.
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6/And there's a lot of hidden corruption and misreporting that gets baked in into calculations but the higher you go up the chain as in a corporation, the more dimissive management is that it will be an issue. AKA Putin doesn't even remotely grasp how bad it is.
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28/ So the spineless bunch decided to throw away 18-19 year old conscripts and veterans and pray they get lucky. Also that Putin hasn't noticed how nuts this is shows that he's either delusional or is completely inept when it comes to military affairs.
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. Also the occupied territories are suffering even more than this. Included is this morning's Izvestia article and 1 other source.
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2/Here's where I will start from. The Russian armed forces have never attempted anything like this. This isn't about what kind of war they're fighting it's about what they're capable of mustering.
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11/The release of the information paralyzed them in terms of decision making. But the inherent bias remained and UA delayed mobilising so it didn't dissuade them. For 7 days they ate away supplies rather than actively trying to build them further, they were waiting a go order.
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1) I am going to push back on the idea that what we see is that the Russian Armed Forces are merely having severe supply and readiness issues and that we should consider it to be overall modern.
Taking a cursory look at Russian losses two weeks into the war, it reads less as a general failure to modernize, and more as a failure to maintain and properly support the equipment. Abandonment rate exceedingly high.
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added 5 new regions since last update as Russia prepares for gasoline imports.
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8/We saw constant trains and movement over time moving Ru equipment and lots of aircraft being moved over to mustering points and at the end people. By then the supply was at its limit just keeping them warm and fed. They found out the hard way this was their logistical limit.
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A grouping of vehicles that's over 40 kms long and immobile is called a traffic jam, not an army.
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4/Thirdly battalion tactical groups are terrible units to support operations. They have overload the commander lack support and might not properly integrate with air or do adeqaute scouting as signals and recon are missing along with liasons with them.
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27/Can it work? I don't know. Is it a good plan. Hell no. Could they execute anything else, without the entire structure confessing the army has corruption,which yes the boss expected, but it's such a rot it might cost him his throne, yeah not when he's in this mood.
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9/What people sa wasn't that troops packed spare tanks for long drives. They were carying their fuel reserves on them. The few organic refueling trucks were not enough to make up an actual reserve or depot. They had one full compliment, some spares in one truck , thats it.
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PS/ A lot of the commentary prior missed the readiness of the Russian forces and the poor state of affairs. Overreliance on official statements and major military pages missed tons of low level testimonials and regional investigative pieces on how big the rot was.
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The northern districts of Irkutsk region just as they are getting snowed in are having gasoline shortages. The Bodaybinsky and Kirensky districts which are sparsely populated have run out of gasoline.
ircity.ru/text/economics/202…
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14/Now it's either confess the lies about readiness or be creative. Because the corruption had created such a rot, brigade commandes chose "creative" (criminal), conscripts were added to the build up. Ghosts soldiers on the roster were hidden. That meant BTGs were far greener.
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5/Fourthly without standing down even if parts of the UA Nat Guard, Police, Border Guard, Territorials and Army are defeated, UA regional commands can be autonomous for days and are vast structures, short of ordering their demobilization their removal is way too costly for RuMoD.
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7/Based on those 5 let me try to explain the situation now. Russian units aren't stopping fire or limiting use of their kalibrs and stand off strikes. This is all they could muster south. Kalibrs are limited by launch tubes, a bit over a hundred is what they had ready.
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Here's a video of how the Russian gasoline crisis progressed over the past 5 week. Tonight on @tochnyi we will spend extra time on discussing the topic. Tune in at 21:00 Kyiv time.
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Did a proper search of all Regions in Russia for gasoline shortages and here is the updated map:
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13/Were the Ru troops quality ones they'd do better with just surprise on their side. But they were mostly poorly trained as full units were never called up before. Usually a brigade would send only a company and could hand pick.
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12/The limited supply meant it had to be a mad dash. BTGs were split into smaller sub units traveling on multiple roads to avoid congestion. When they met something they'd wait to coalesce or get into a fight. If the UA was suprised it would work.
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I am going to start adding a water mark on the maps I make because of shit like this:
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15/When these hit a city or made contact they'd deploy in unideal formations of platoon to company size. Not their fault all that much, this is what they knew. Then if a UA unit knew in advance where they were and was careful, it would anihilate the BTG splinter formation.
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This is the only high quality oxygen and nitrogen producing site in Alabuga which you would need o be close if you were making carbon fiber for drones and said drones in Alabuga. Posting the coordinates for no particular reason.
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PPPS/ We saw lots of evidence for that and even then a part of the community of analysts dismissed it assuming once it's about having a war footing RU structures will take it serious. But that's not how bad habits work.
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25) In the words of Blackadder :
It started badly, it tailed off a little in the middle and the less said about the end the better — but apart from that it was excellent.
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16/Because the timetable had to be kept, supplies were already short with the delay Ru troops would go a step further. They'd keep one sub unit to block and redirect subsequent units, the rest would continue on parallel roads. Again timetable meant usually more major roads.
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25/So the air assault fails, part of the pincer moves fail, you can't budge most of the UA troops what do you do? You go for broke, hope you win the race between entrechment in Kyiv and you just throwing all you have and hope if you decapitate UA, regional commands lose faith.
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17/After a couple of road blocks, BTG'd be diluted, lost a bunch of units and fighting to standstill. You'd expect that there would be air or artiller support. But BTGs aren't suited for that, when they move in chunks in parallel the artillery spotters could be in another group.
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21/This works on day 1 when you know where your guys start & can track where they are easily and you know beyond that point it's all enemy. Once you land and refuel, it's less easy especially because as we mentioned, a BTG splitinter lacks a signals unit, just has a few officers.
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18/As we said also there was a problem stocking supplies but still CAS should probably not be as limited? Yes but Russian SSO more used to directing it had other tasks and Russia doesn't have a platform like the US surveilance planes and drones that can operate in contested air.
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19/And the air was contested because of the limited early strikes due to the small build up + limited recon of where UA AF & AD were prior to this. Satelites take pics at known times, moving equipment often can dissuede strikes as it's uncertain anything will be in place.
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The Russian MoD said it had 640 000 professional soldiers. This tells us two things, one Medvedev's numbers are a work of fiction and the Ru irrecoverable losses are in the hundreds of thousands. Let me break it down.
kommersant.ru/doc/6428278
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. Also the occupied territories are suffering even more than this. Added 5 new regions from today.
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26/Otherwise becuase what remains of your force is split in small groups moving on main roads UA can mobilize move via back roads and just recapture most of the towns as you have few troops for actual 24/7 duties and to even spot them moving back into the town.
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PPS/ Aggregation of Zvezda and VK mil informing pages and MAKS show sales pitches should be tempered by what we can find on the ground and regional and smaller outlets, forums and blogs were servicemembers were pissed were abundant to the point they shouldn't have been dismissed.
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20/What then was struck were major stationary objects, depots in main areas, radars, major command and control but again limited by number of reloads. So then Ru MoD started rolling the columns with heavy support of helicopters and planes ahead.
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22/Then comes the air asault. Becuase you have to be quick you also have to do risky stuff. The problem of course is that because your helicopters are parked in fields, ready for one load with some trucks and one set of ammo, you can do it once a day with each group.
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24/You still have to try to take the airport fast and get guys in because if the operation takes too long and you haven't kept them(the UA) on the back foot your green troops are still moving piecemeal on roads, don't have much with them, any small village could be their end.
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Here's the new video of how the Russian gasoline crisis progressed over the past 6 weeks. You can also hear me talk a bit more about the gasoline crisis tonight on @tochnyi . Tune in at 21:00 Kyiv time.
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23/That's why you wait till the end of the assualt attempt to see if it works. If you have to refuel and prep for a second go, your trucks have to go to a depot and reload and then come back. And only then try again.
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. Also the occupied territories are suffering even more than this. Included 3 new regions from today.
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added 5 new regions since last update and this includes St Petersburg.
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The project to develop the arctic variants of Tor and Pantsir was priced at 100 billion roubles ...
nitter.app/auto_glam/status/16215…
interfax.ru/russia/677159
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And huge thanks to @ain92ru who knows a lot more than me about this but due to the situation in Russia has posted a lot less.
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PPPPS/ And in the minds of the Kremlin they have been continuously on a war footing. So if during that time they left arms companies bankrupt sometimes even more than once, the habit was not going to break most likely.
To quote Nemtsov here:
<<Он ёбнутый... чтоб вы поняли?>>
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This is how the map of Russian fuel shortages and how it progressed over the last few weeks, we're at 84% of regions. If you want to listen to more information about the Russian fuel crisis join us at @tochnyi at 21:00 Kyiv time:
piped.video/watch?v=pApVNql7…
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These tanks might be from the 467th guard training school ( в/ч 30616 ). If the Russian armed forces are pulling tanks and troops from the training schools they're beyond spent.
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added 4 new regions since last update, ЯНАО, Tuva, Udmurtia and Kurgan.
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Also to remind people when stuck along the road at near 0 degrees Celsius in a column for days you continue to have heavy fuel consumption. Engines will be running at regular intervals. Same applies for a forrest near the border.
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New light commercial vehicle sales in Russia are down 78,5% in April. This is for the folks who look at the mostly artificial exchange rate thinking the Russian economy's fine.
kommersant.ru/doc/5347682
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Russia seems to be heading back to the 90s where entire trains worth of fuel would be stolen:
bfm.ru/news/585910
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Just to do a quick recap of the major stories about the Russian economy this week. 30% of logistics companies operating trucks went out of business this winter. Auto sales are down 45,5% and smartphone sales are down 20%. And budget oil and gas revenues missed their target.
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Just to add that the bulk of the orders for this company come from state contracts that require the use of domestic components and they invested in expanding production in 2024.
kommersant.ru/doc/6849496
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added 3 new regions since last update, Tomsk, Kemerovо and Bashkortostan.
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A very long thread on Russian civil aviation but please read it. Some juicy tidbits, Russian planes with domestic parts are worse and twice more expensive than Western ones and can be produced maybe only in single digits.
kommersant.ru/doc/6880281
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A must read on Russian logistics companies. Russian road cargo transportation companies and individual entrepreneurs operating trucks started exiting the market in Autumn 2024 with the peak being winter 2024-2025. In Q1 2025 20% had stopped working.
iz.ru/1864218/vladimir-gavri…
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Russian gasoline production the week of 1st-7th of April declined again to 754 400 tons and diesel production dropped further than before to 1 585 100 tons. In 2023 during the week of 3rd-9th of April gasoline production was 833 200 tons and diesel production was 1 769 000 tons.
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added 3 new regions since last update, Chelyabinsk, Murmansk and North Ossetia-Alania.
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. Also the occupied territories are suffering even more than this.
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Queues for gasoline in the Bashkortostan district of Burzyansky after there wasn't fuel for two days at local gas stations.
t.me/ufa_rb/53111
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The craziest part of the gasoline shortage so far for me is that even today you have Russians talking about how the shortage is artificial either manipulated by the big oil companies or by the government to cover the deficit or both.
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Russia has banned the export of gasoline and diesel till the end of 2025.
kommersant.ru/doc/8062368
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I don't think most people get it, berating Zelensky on TV was the entire point they don't want policy, they're old men airing grievances at thanks giving when the family can't just ditch them.
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The gasoline shortage has reached Arkhangelsk which is the regional capital of Arkhangelsk oblast. Previously it was in smaller towns but now it's in the regional center. Tatneft and Lukoil still have gasoline.
29.ru/text/auto/2025/10/04/7…
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I don't think people appreciate how expensive Russian logistics are becoming. 24% interest on a truck lease has made it impossible to replace a mid sized company's fleet. Chinese & Ru trucks are expensive less fuel efficient and this is the entire margin.
Russian companies are canceling truck leases due to costs of 24% interest and outsourcing transportation. Only companies with very large fleets can continue operating. Also Chinese trucks are as expensive as EU ones but of lower quality.
kommersant.ru/doc/6578550
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I will do a breakdown of the recent collapse in Russia's winter coping measures and why it happened in 2024 for those who don't follow Russian news. There's a combination of reasons which led to this event.
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Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel and how early was it first reported. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added just one region since the last update, Yaroslavl.
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A thread on how Russian aircraft manufacturers are doing when it comes to staffing. It's far from the image being cultivated that everything is running smoothly. Many of these entities shed thousands of workers prior to 2022. Salaries are quite low with lots of offers < 50 000.
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2)Here's the first problem, SEAD. It's failing to suppress UA air defences, but that's more a feature of procurement planning rather than a bug. The VKS lacks a significant number of modern ELINT platforms.
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4)Now to explain the practical implications. Without those platforms in the air the Ru VKS rarely has an idea when a UA radar is being turned on unless they are almost on top of it in practical terms ( closer than 50 kms ). They just get notified when they get acquired.
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1) This is a thread on the state of Russian infantry squads and platoons in the ground forces and naval infantry and VDV and how these rank comparatively. The VDV have been addressed and considered light infantry but the data suggests they are on the heavier side.
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Ru trade with Turkey is coming to a halt. Turkish firms can't receive payments and are closing their export bank accounts. The Turkish Ministry of Trade called the situation force majeure as banks are stopping transactions en masse due to fear of sanctions
kommersant.ru/doc/6596273
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My two cents on the "Moskva". While it was the flagship of the VMF's Black Sea fleet and it won awards it was in a pitiful state. Broader modernisation was cancelled in 2015 and what was done was mostly servicing and extension of power plant's life.
vpk.name/news/132344_moderni…
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24)The manpower isn't there to hold even 4 larger towns. As UA reserves are brought forth South and East I don't think Ru keeping thousands in the towns and a bunch advance columns trying to move out is tenable. Mass warcriming doesn't degrade mil power in 2 weeks.
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This performance is why an 18 year old Russian singer will likely get several years in jail. If it pisses off Putin so much maybe we should do more for it to be heard.
piped.video/shorts/ILLxUj1r7…
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5)The second issue is the collapse of communications and the lack of interoperable real time data links with the same standards. In practice the VDV, Army and VKS sort of have different systems. These get fed and combined at the army HQ usually during drills.
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6)Firing anti radar missiles in a battle space you can't deconflict and is filled with your own AD is a bad idea, even if you think there's a caricature level casual carelessness among Ru officers (I don't think it's the case). You just lose missiles without achieving their aim.
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Ru's Ministry of Energy has made fuel production statistics a state secret and they are no longer included in the weekly fuel data from Rosstat. I can no longer provide updates on that. Assume the damage on the fuel infrastructure has a significant effect
kommersant.ru/doc/6730356
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I don't think the Assad state can exist without controlling Hama for a variety of reason. They're cooked.
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7)The next issue is what modern means for ground forces and air forces. It is supposed to mean All Weather forces. But at the very least night operations, but the issue is the bulk of the Russian ground equipment has 70s IR illuminators for its commanders.
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More secondary evidence to support the argument that the logistics are really not there and this is how the Russian armed forces will fight against any foe. Expired Russian MoD rations from the era they grew in renown over the world (2013-2015):
t.me/dvish_alive/8294
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In Astrakhan it seems that gas stations are out of not just gasoline but also diesel:
astrakhan.su/news/society/as…
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19)Finally, to reiterate when you're not picking just a company or three from a brigade to send, you get to see how unprepared the service is. That shouldn't be news at this point, tanks without motor oil, dead batteries, drivers who can't handle ditches with tracked vehicles...
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8)We have also seen Russian troops use flares during their attack of the nuclear powerplant in Energodar and lacking more sophisticated night fighting equipment. Even recent tank upgrades omitted that, like the T-80BVM.
bmpd.livejournal.com/4289299…
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18)As a whole while the Russian armed forces don't have the ability to act as a modern force at this scope. If we're talking about a subset across most branches of a combined total of 40-50 k . Maybe. But a ground component of 200k with backing, as we have seen is a problem.
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10)Even though the Ru MoD considers most of its tanks as modern, in practice by the above standard only a small subset are. To tie it to experience from recent combat showcases that even the thermals on the Strykers can be used to avoid and counter ambushes.
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13)The inversion of that paradigm suggest that procurement is driven by Almaz-Antey and Rostech's funding needs and desires, rather than actual modern AF doctrine. The DoD Procurement slideshows may cause migraines, they don't cause inferiority by design to this degree.
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There are also a couple of myths about the gasoline crisis and stats that keep getting repeated that I want to address:
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News is coming out that Aeroflot will need 2 months to recover parts of its internal systems and up to a year for full recovery. The number of flights canceled has risen to over 100 and this could cost 275 million rubles in lost revenue alone.
kommersant.ru/doc/7923869?fr…
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This is new from the fuel crisis, Russian farmers in Chelyabinsk and Novosibirsk are complaining of a lack of diesel fuel. The initial shortage news from Novosibirsk was of diesel shortages at gas stations.
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3)Let's do a head count, 2 Tu-214Rs and 3 modernised Il-20 derivatives have been received in the last 20+ years. The A-100 projects is still being delayed and the reports from KAZ suggest further Tu-214 orders will not be forthcoming. business-gazeta.ru/article/4…
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9)When defining a modern tank we usually consider modern ammo (discrepancy in crew experience could negate it via outmanoeuvring) modern sights for the gunner, thermal equipped 360 periscope for the commander (hunter killer capability) and a battlefield information system.
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