MILTON FRIEDMAN: "CONSUMERS DON’T PRODUCE INFLATION." "PRODUCERS DON’T PRODUCE INFLATION. "INFLATION IS PRODUCED ONLY BY TOO MUCH GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TOO MUCH GOVERNMENT CREATION OF MONEY, AND NOTHING ELSE."

More theatre from fake Patriots marching in DC. No Patriot wears a mask and no Patriot flies a flag upside down

🤖 AI at Work: Productivity Boost or Job Threat? How AI is introduced can either increase output and bonuses or spark fear over job cuts. The Exponentialist co-creators @DMattin and @RaoulGMI are back to talk through the latest developments in Exponential Age tech before taking questions live directly from the audience.

A conversation with @EMostaque will always blow your mind. This one is no exception... Enjoy!

Ok, let’s get one thing straight… Delinquency rates on credit card loans (or otherwise) are not a leading indicator. The ISM is not a leading indicator. PMIs are not a leading indicator. Heavy truck sales are not a leading indicator. Job openings are not a leading indicator. Consumer confidence is not a leading indicator. Small business confidence is not a leading indicator. Durable goods orders are not a leading indicator. Capital goods orders are not a leading indicator. Jobless claims are not a leading indicator. Payrolls are not a leading indicator. The unemployment rate is not a leading indicator. Retail sales are not a leading indicator. Port traffic is not a leading indicator. Rail traffic is not a leading indicator. Freight volumes are not a leading indicator. Rig counts are not a leading indicator. Bank lending is not a leading indicator. The Conference Board LEI is not a leading indicator (I know, crazy, but no…). All of these indicators are coincident at best, some even lagging. But not all coincident economic data is created equal. Some start flashing early when the cycle turns. Our GMI US Coincident Business Cycle Index pulls together some of the more forward-looking elements within the coincident economic data, including early employment trends I’ve talked about before and a few other signals that tend to move first. But more importantly, EVERYTHING is downstream to changes in financial conditions… Here’s the backdrop: Our lead indicators bottomed in June 2022, leading both the ISM and our coincident index by around nine months. By March 2023, exactly nine months later, the ISM and our GMI index had also bottomed and started turning higher. Lagging data, particularly the unemployment rate, continues to rise and that is what keeps the Fed engaged. Most assume rising unemployment is always bearish for risk assets. But it depends entirely on the cycle’s context and where lead indicators are heading… and they’re rising. What’s the bottom line? The labor market is doing exactly what it needs to do to bring rates lower, which will eventually feed through to rate-sensitive areas of the economy like housing and manufacturing, driving the next leg of the business cycle higher. It’s a recursive feedback loop. Once you get The Everything Code Dominoes, the whole thing suddenly makes sense… You see how it all fits together, and you understand the cycle phasing and variable leads and lags. From there, it’s easy: focus on what really matters and ignore the noise…

Amazing interview with @RaoulGMI and @EMostaque! Some takeaways from this conversation: 1. AI's (LLMs) use tokens that are equivalent to 1.3 words per token. 2. The avg person speaks 20,000 tokens / day. 3. The avg person thinks about 200,000 tokens / day. 4. The latest Grok 4 model costs $0.50 per 1 million tokens. So the current LLMs can do the equivalent of week's worth of knowledge work for $0.50 with an IQ higher than the avg person! ...and they will only get better. Things are changing rapidly.

Michelangelo Pietà

오픈마인드 @openmind_agi AGI 야핑 한방 정리 AI 로봇의 안드로이드가 될 OpenMind 의료계 혁신 준비 완료! 핵심 팩트들 Pantera Capital 주도 $20M 시리즈A 완료 (8월) OM1 OS : 로봇용 첫 오픈소스 운영체제 FABRIC : 머신간 블록체인 협업 네트워크 Pi Network 35만 노드와 파트너십 체결 의료 혁신 포인트 HIPAA 준수로 환자 데이터 완벽 보호 수술 로봇간 실시간 안전 협업 가능 병원 로봇이 스스로 학습하고 진화 고령자 돌봄부터 응급실까지 커버 현재 트랙션 18만+ 대기자 (토큰 런치 전) 1만+ OM1 개발자 커뮤니티 하버드/MIT/스탠포드 교육과정 도입 Base 체인에서 9만+ 로봇 ID 생성 내년 TGE 앞두고 지금이 마지막 얼리 기회 Web3 × 헬스케어의 게임체인저 될 듯

🔥 The Fed Can’t Stop Printing. @RaoulGMI and @dan_pantera on the latest #JourneyMan. Debt, deficits, and currency debasement are creating a dangerous, unstoppable financial spiral.

You NEED to learn this…

What’s stopping you from financial freedom? Your knowledge gap. Mine was. I’ve spent my entire career deep in technology and financial systems. I understood data, processes, logic. I enjoyed studying markets. I thought I was informed. I wasn’t informed enough. Because markets aren’t running on the old playbook anymore. Liquidity cycles, business-cycle turns, exponential tech, AI, crypto, macro — the drivers of wealth today move faster than most people can even process. If you don’t understand these forces, you’re already behind. @RealVision exists to close that gap. If you’re done guessing and want to understand how the world actually works, this is the only platform that teaches you macro, liquidity, the business cycle, exponential trends, and the real frameworks used by people who win. And if you want to understand the future — not headlines, not hype — the Exponentialist is the edge. It’s the roadmap for the next decade of AI, energy, crypto, automation, and the coming Economic Singularity. No fluff. No noise. Only the models that help you survive and compound. You can stay outside and hope. Or you can learn, prepare, and position yourself. There’s no reason not to. I joined a year ago, and it was one of the best moves I've ever made. Join for free and get the free guide below. realvision.com/free/survivet…

📌 In case you missed it 🔴 The Everything Code UPDATE ft. @BittelJulien piped.video/live/X_PkXDjeFyM…

For years I've been writing about the coming post-human economy and now it's starting to bite, and people are starting to wake up. AI agents eat knowledge work. Robots eat physical labour and what we're seeing now is just the start. Enterprise AI adoption is so early, like 5%. It takes time for large organisations to build AI workflows. But they are, and they will. It will go far deeper across the next three years. We're in the early days of a weird, and brutal, transformation of the economy. A hinge moment in history. Prospects for so many people, and especially young people, will be utterly changed. It's going to get wild for society, families, all of us At the end of this process, 'the economy' is really something beyond our current comprehension. I rarely give personal advice around here. But this moment is so important, and the position for many people is so fragile. And the time to act is now: — Learn how to use AI and grow audiences online — Own hard assets — Make your family a place of safety; you're going to need each other

I've told 10 more people about this conversation since Friday. I think everyone needs to listen to this. You don't realize what's coming.

Holy shit… Meta might’ve just solved self-improving AI 🤯 Their new paper SPICE (Self-Play in Corpus Environments) basically turns a language model into its own teacher no humans, no labels, no datasets just the internet as its training ground. Here’s the twist: one copy of the model becomes a Challenger that digs through real documents to create hard, fact-grounded reasoning problems. Another copy becomes the Reasoner, trying to solve them without access to the source. They compete, learn, and evolve together an automatic curriculum with real-world grounding so it never collapses into hallucinations. The results are nuts: +9.1% on reasoning benchmarks with Qwen3-4B +11.9% with OctoThinker-8B and it beats every prior self-play method like R-Zero and Absolute Zero. This flips the script on AI self-improvement. Instead of looping on synthetic junk, SPICE grows by mining real knowledge a closed-loop system with open-world intelligence. If this scales, we might be staring at the blueprint for autonomous, self-evolving reasoning models.