Lawyer, former Wisconsinite, (coefficient) shrinkage enthusiast. Baseball Prospectus stats, PECOTA. Likes: Brewers, Packers, statistical parameters.
Chicago, IL
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On Willie Mays, who 5% of baseball writers found an excuse not to vote for in his first year of Hall of Fame eligibility:
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Reading between the lines, baseball’s smallest markets don’t want to spend more money but they also don’t want to be outspent. Tough to make that work.
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I too am very upset with the Milwaukee Brewers for failing to replace their poor-hitting shortstop with one of the zero shortstops available on the market.
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A good reminder that “analytics” at its core is about forcing yourself to assign values to things that matter, keeping track of those values over time, and holding yourself accountable for the results.
Much harder than uttering platitudes and whining about game momentum.
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Notable Uecker quote from last night: “Yelich has had a good week tonight.” #Brewers
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Uecker just now suggesting that this will be his last season and I *think* he is not kidding.
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Run differential can be pretty noisy these days but that last column sure stands out for the NL Central.
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The idea that the Brewers traded for Priester primarily out of desperation seems off the mark.
They were perfectly capable of middling through the next few weeks if they had to do so. I think they really wanted him and the opportunity finally arose.
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Probably should have mentioned this in the intro article today, but this is the first season in several years we have not projected Mike Trout to be the best hitter in baseball.
A moment of silence, please.
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This was discussed on the broadcast last night too. Giants supposedly are using pitching machines for BP that mimic the pitcher they are about to face. Given the improbable leaps they have made in hitting this year, they might be on to something. 1/ nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants…
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Perhaps the contributing governments could receive in exchange ownership shares equal to one half the increased appraised value of the team as a result of the renovations. We’re partners in this endeavor, right?
Brewers owner Mark Attanasio would get at least $620m to upgrade a 22-year-old stadium, $520m of it coming from taxpayers. At $26m in public outlay per year of additional lease, this would be one of the most expensive sports lease extensions in history. fieldofschemes.com/2023/09/1…
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Off to O’Hare with my laptop and a bookmark to 28 U.S.C. 2241. Wish us luck! And if you can help in some way, please do.
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The move is more brilliant than that. The closing argument will now be delivered by fan favorite JD Vance.
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As somebody who has been spoiled with Bob Uecker all my life, I still think Tom Hamilton may be the most exciting listen in baseball radio.
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Long way to go and still some concerning trends (K rate), but Garrett Mitchell has now exceeded 100 PAs in MLB with a batting average over .300 and an OPS over .900, while providing elite defense at a premium position with 80 speed.
They are supposed to struggle at first.
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As @Marc_Normandin has said, the other teams aren’t that mad at Steve Coben, but they may be furious with Peter Seidler, who is demonstrating that small markets could spend much more money if winning were their top priority. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
BREAKING: Star third baseman Manny Machado and the San Diego Padres are finalizing an 11-year, $350 million contract extension, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Machado helped turn around the franchise. He'll stay as the ascendant Padres seek their first championship.
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The last time the White Sox played this game we ended up with the Trop being built for leverage, the White Sox then stuck a knife in the back of Tampa after legislators gave them money, and MLB was then forced to create the Rays to avoid being sued for fraud.
Bye-bye @GuaranteedRate Field? @whitesox owner #JerryReinsdorf ponders a move to another city location, the burbs, or even Nashville, and could sell team. Take a look as a move that could be as interesting as the @ChicagoBears trek to AH or wherever. tinyurl.com/5a5mr4n3
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Great news, but unfortunately Abbott almost certainly timed his order deliberately so that an appellate court will inevitably say it is all too close to the election. Would be nice if a panel had enough savvy to see through this. I am not optimistic. @rickhasen
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The MLBPA is increasingly convinced that Rob Manfred and Dan Halem have had their power neutered and that players in fact are negotiating against the hidden hand of influential owners Arte Moreno and Bob Nutting.
Baseball faces its greatest labor crisis since the World Series was canceled in '94. The owners are increasingly convinced Tony Clark and Bruce Meyer have had their power neutered and that owners are actually negotiating against the hidden hand of the game's top agent Scott Boras
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So, the head of O’Hare Immigration has told the lawyers that all detainees here are now expected to be processed and released by 10 pm CT.
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In the last 20 years, only one MLB team has had a lower contact rate than the 2019 Cubs. It's a tough way to make a living, offensively (if you hadn't noticed).
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Not sure how the Brewers avoid bringing Frelick up. If he’s the spark you need, fabulous. If he isn’t, send him back down with little harm done.
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Great job by the umpires and this broadcast team is an embarrassment.
You don’t give warnings, which just escalates the situation. You toss the guy and move on with the game. Which they did.
Willson Contreras left the game after getting hit by Ian Happ on his backswing.
Two pitches later, Miles Mikolas hit Happ with a pitch and was ejected from the game.
(via @BallySportsMW)
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It is PECOTA Day and your favorite baseball team is now officially under-appreciated and disrespected: congratulations to all. baseballprospectus.com/stand…
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It is 6 AM! We are back at O’hare and hoping not to have to be needed. First flight of the day expected in shortly.
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Bayesian Bagging to Generate Uncertainty Intervals: A Catcher Framing Story baseballprospectus.com/news/… via @baseballpro
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Prayers up to those teams getting calls from the Rays in which they are "looking to clear out their 40-man roster slots" in exchange for a young pitcher from your organization.
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The NL lack of a DH is increasingly making a mockery of both the 8th and 9th positions in the batting order as teams pitch around or intentionally walk the 8th batter to get to the pitcher. Every other inning has two PAs that don’t matter and which often finish it.
It’s stupid.
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Why PECOTA projections were so wrong about the Cubs espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2678…
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Brewers have yet to recover from the Hunter Renfroe “salary dump,” and have been forced to rely on some rookie to play RF.
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Hearing that tonight’s final ALDS game will likely be cancelled and replaced by a panel discussion on whether a five-game series really indicates who the better team is anyway.
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At this party people are arguing whether a team of 9 Mike Trouts would beat a team of 9 Madison Bumgarners. Buckle up.
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My favorite story about Brett Phillips is how he went right up to a new female reporter in the clubhouse and told her that if any player gave her shit, he wanted to know about it. Just a great guy by all accounts.
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I really like the part of this where the Brewers pay fair value for a deadline rental, and most fans don’t know the person we traded because the system is finally very deep for the first time in forever.
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The reason certain columnists resent WAR, its flaws notwithstanding, is because it restricts their credibility to say whatever they want.
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“It takes 15 years to become a Heineken brewmaster,” which is a long time to make the worst beer I’ve ever had.
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The despondency that may have informed those votes is tragic and almost understandable. But there will be few better examples of voting for the leopards party. And it was 100% obvious all along.
What Dearborn bought: “There is no such thing as the West Bank — it’s Judea & Samaria,” Huckabee has said. “There is no such thing as settlements, they’re communities, they’re neighborhoods…There is no such thing as an occupation.” nytimes.com/2024/11/14/us/po… via @NYTimes
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Their “credibility” stems from the inability of poll rating sites to distinguish between actually having a good method and randomly choosing the right bias for the 2020 election. It’s stupid.
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One thing I’ve learned about dealing with unreasonable people in my day job is that when you give in to what they want, they are totally satisfied and never make more unreasonable demands once you’ve proven you can be rolled.
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My view is that the term “analytics” is used primarily by people who neither perform nor seriously try to understand sports data analysis. Hence, its frequent usage as a blanket term for strategies these same people do not like with the benefit of hindsight.
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Prospectus Feature: The Siren Song of Statcast's "Expected" Metrics baseballprospectus.com/news/…
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As to this thread, my unprovable theory is that owner profit-hoarding in baseball is now driven by the need to keep limited partners happy, as you need the latter to invest big and make big profits to justify the investment and thereby support outsized club valuations. 1/x
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Eric Thames reminds us that being “Bondsian” has little to do with steroids, & everything to do with decoding the plate discipline matrix.
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Cardinals and the Brewers. Basically these two lineups are going to wreck the NL all season long.
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Hard to see a better fit for the Brewers this winter than Kris Bryant. In addition to the trolling value, which is sufficient by itself, they need to replace or upgrade from Garcia's bat and Bryant's positional flexibility is a plus.
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Introducing Range Defense Added baseballprospectus.com/news/… via @baseballpro
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Observation: I much prefer rival teams joshing over the weather to them throwing baseballs at each other’s persons.
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Just have his parents order it for him. Standard Wisconsin procedure.
O'Douls in Milwaukee? Celebrate with apple juice?The Brewers are about to clinch the NL Central but phenom Jackson Chourio is so young he can't legally drink in Brewers’ party usatoday.com/story/sports/ml…
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Socialize the costs, privatize the profits. Just shameless.
Wisconsin lawmakers are negotiating using tax money to pay for American Family Field improvements.
A Milwaukee Brewers-commissioned study found the work will cost $428M. What would it go toward? FOX6 News took an exclusive tour of the ballpark to find out.
fox6now.com/news/american-fa…
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The MLB owners enabled the Oakland situation of course because they needed a city in agony to bolster demands for publicly-funded stadiums elsewhere. Manfred literally came to Milwaukee and said it would be a shame if you ended up like Oakland.
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Moonshot: The Rocket Ball Has Disappeared In October baseballprospectus.com/news/… via @baseballpro
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The idea that playoff outcomes are "random" is, like many misleading statements, somewhat true. By definition, merely above-average hitting becomes average or below-average against exceptional pitching and vice versa. So of course it matters how good your team is on average. 1/6
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Not sure there is anything more endearing in sports than a humble, magnanimous Hall of Famer.
A must-read and must-watch today: Robin Yount and Jackson Chourio meet for breakfast the morning after a division clinch. This is one of the coolest things we’ve ever had on @Brewers dot com. atmlb.com/4gItqhU
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Developing new sports statistics is not a way to avoid “watching the games.” It’s a way to watch the games and then keep enjoying them over and over again after they finish. Thanks!
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Wade Miley has been a much more effective pitcher since pretty much the outset of Spring Training and if his performance is still a surprise to you at this point, just acknowledge you never watched him pitch this year. It’s ok to say so.
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Uecker: “plenty good for tailgating today in Milwaukee. Can’t do that down in Chicago. Unless you want to get hit by a car.”
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Drew Pomeranz with SFG: 5.91 DRA, 104 cFIP
Drew Pomeranz with MKE: 1.52 DRA, 67 cFIP
Relief work suits him, it would seem.
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For those interested, tomorrow @baseballpro we’ll be running an essay on what traditional (baseball) leaderboards do wrong, how we should award credit to players, and how to distinguish player contributions from play outcomes. Theory and examples!
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And yes, the difference in framing between the Dodgers and the White Sox this year was 52 runs. Seems material.
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Our accuracy study of prominent baseball defensive systems was posted today. What we find is that the strength of a system can vary quite a bit depending on position, sometimes depending on entire portions of the field. baseballprospectus.com/news/…
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Sending the kid to his Chicago school's "baseball sportswear" day in Brewers garb today. The scorn he endures will only make him stronger.
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It will sound absurd, but the Brewers should pursue Ohtani aggressively. They will have a cost-controlled payroll for years and a long-term stadium deal, can leverage him for more TV revenue, give him opt-outs, and use Giannis to pitch how stars are given their privacy here.
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And the taxpayers pay the bill, again. Cities should be allowed to take a portion of all civil rights awards out of police pension funds. If you want improved behavior, align the incentives.
A cop in California goes on a power trip and tackles a man on his own porch just for recording him. Everyone has a first amendment right to video the police.
The city of Vallejo has agreed to pay the man $300,000 for this abuse of power.
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This is an under-appreciated reason why so many blowhards are eager to “debate” their opponents.
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Brewers achieve their projected season wins total by August 30. Great job by PECOTA to anticipate that they would reach this milestone.
Final: Brewers 14, Reds 0
Milwaukee sweeps the doubleheader. DL Hall shoved. The Brewers piled on 10 runs in the ninth. They're a season-high 23 games over .500.
The record: 79-56
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Sometimes a person is fortunate enough to make a few great hires, and unfortunately concludes that the real genius is the person who hired them, not the employees themselves.
This often doesn’t end well.
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Love you Jared, but I am picturing a big baby throwing his applesauce as he makes this statement.
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According to our catcher metrics, William Contreras is last year was an average framer, a smidge below average in blocking, and well above average in base-stealing prevention. Not sure where the bad defensive reputation is coming from.
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Are these executives working for the Packers, Vikings, and Lions?
In the eyes of some NFL executives, Mitchell Trubisky has played some of the best football of his career, and has made a case as to why Chicago will need to consider re-signing him — especially if the Bears now advance to the playoffs.
nam04.safelinks.protection.o…
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Delighted to announce my first peer-reviewed article (at age 49!), in Traffic Injury Prevention. We use @mcstan to model safety impact of gaps between rear-facing child car seats and vehicle seats in front of them, during high-speed frontal crashes. 1/4 tandfonline.com/eprint/WBFW5…
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Pretty obvious isn’t it? People favor places that are (1) warmer; (2) cheaper; or (3) both.
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What if the catcher is the one interfering with the batter by diving into the back swing due to the pitcher poorly locating the ball? As literally applied, this is crazy.
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When you make an “opening” offer the other side considers to be ridiculous, the other side sometimes and quite rightly says “yeah, no thanks,” and then you have basically screwed yourself.
I have not noticed any of our new experts on contract negotiation pointing this out.
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I'm still fairly new at this, so seeing my essay in the @baseballpro annual is an amazing feeling. Thanks to all.
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Opinion: disagreements among statistical election models is (1) healthy and (2) a massive upgrade from Dick Morris v. Cokie Roberts.
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Even before the extremely-early returns of this season are considered, the drumbeat of national wisdom that the Brewers are headed for a deadline sell-off made no sense. It’s comical. Just admit you don’t follow the division closely and be done with it.
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As @Cran_Boy likes to say, owning a sports team is like owning expensive art. Your operational “losses” are meaningless year in and year out as you accumulate a massive asset that only appreciates.
I’m sure this is on paper true—the paper losses are for many teams—but the important context is that they bought the team in 2006 for $450 million and recently turned down an offer for over $2 billion. Operational losses while the asset appreciates by much more aren’t real losses
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This is a garbage statement. Variance in manufacturing refers to deviations from a defined median measure, which here is drag. The balls used during the 2019 season “varied” around a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT median drag. Brushing that off as just “variance” is disingenuous at best.
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Lost in the celebration of bullpen-fest so far is that the starters were pulled because they were bad, not because of some magical plan.
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