Seeing a lot of Solana angst on the timeline.
Obviously SOL will be outperformed by many things till the cycle end, as it dominated for 18 months and ran from 8 to 260.
But if you are a SOL holder right now then you need to decide if you are willing to play the max rotation game or not at this stage in the cycle.
I do think many will try and gamble their SOL for more, which is fine if you are right with your rotations, but will be a disaster for those that get it wrong (loss of capital + tax liability). Many people frittered away their ETH last cycle in an attempt to make more.
Think it's worth emphasising there is nothing wrong with SOL here.
Fundamentals are stronger than ever. It can't just go up all the time vs ETH and BTC. Entirely possible it has put in cycle tops on those two pairs, but still does fine on the USD pair (anywhere from 2-4x is my guess). Can also see the argument for a new high against both later in 2025. Many catalysts can support this, and not everything will play out exactly like previous cycles. A lot of people are pattern matching ETH/BTC from last cycle, but the market conditions and adoption phase is different for Solana.
Still some silly ETH maxi comments that think SOL was a trade, and that it's somehow over now for the chain. Solana is here to stay, it's not going to zero. If you put your bias aside for one moment then I think that's very clear.
They have attracted more devs in 2024 than any other chain (see latest
@ElectricCapital report). That is an extremely significant signal, and the healthiest metric you could possibly have as an L1. More apps, more chances of breakout apps that eventually end up making the current SOL valuation look cheap.
Unlock fud will pass within the next few weeks/get priced in (probably is already), and more talks of ETFs will take over in Q1. Maybe BlackRock even files then. It's inevitable that Solana will onboard institutional capital and have that passive bid as well. When it starts in 2025 is just a little unclear right now.
Solana is also going to be one of the biggest beneficiary of the AI agent bubble which is going to grow exponentially from now until 2025, alongside other sectors like DePin and DeFi is still going to mark up a lot on the chain.
There is no need to feel sad or feel worried. Again, CT always over indexes a few weeks of bad PA.
SOL has established itself as a blue chip crypto asset. It survived the fall of FTX, and rose from the ashes to become the most used L1 out there in respect to volume and users.
Any emerging L1s that wants to replace SOL at the top will have to go through hell and back to prove their anti-fragility. Proof comes in the bear market, not in a bull.
In my experience, all of the Solana devs and ecosystem see themselves as massive underdogs still. There is no complacency here whatsoever. They absolutely do not think they are on top, and this attitude makes me believe Solana will ensure they keep pushing to the max.
I say this as someone that is no maxi of anything. I see the merits of Ethereum, move chains and the exciting emerging L1s like Hyperliquid, and have investments in most of them.
Maybe there is a bit more capitulation to come, or maybe the fact the whole timeline is suggesting SOL is over is a sign we are putting in a bottom. I dunno, and can't do short term very well.
But just chill with the long term sensational takes based on a few weekly candles that ignore all of the fundamentals.