Distinguished Professor of History: American University. Author of 13 books.
Washington, DC
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- Followers 97,788
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In a brazen racist slur, Donald Trump said that black Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo was no more Greek than him. Antetokounmpo was born in Athens of Nigerian parents, is a Greek citizen and was the Greek flag bearer at the Paris Olympics.
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Nate Silver claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn’t have the faintest idea how to turn the keys. He’s not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials. He was wrong when he said I could not make an early prediction of Obama‘s re-election. He’ll be wrong again in trying to analyze the keys.
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If Democrats hope to retain the White House in November, they need to support Joe Biden!
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Nate Silver’s compilation of polls is so unreliable that he now says that who will win the presidency is down to luck.
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I have never seen a party so intent on self-destruction as the Democratic Party is right now, trashing their own president and presumptive nominee who was selected by the voters.
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The media has relentlessly pursued the issue of Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 presidential race. If Donald Trump wins, the media will have been complicit in their own demise, because Trump will destroy the free press.
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Biden has dropped out. But the Democrats could still salvage the contest key if they unite behind Harris!
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Biden’s withdrawal cost Democrats the Incumbency Key on my 13 Keys to the White House prediction system. But the excitement generated by his endorsement of VP Harris makes it very likely that they retain the Contest Key as she becomes the consensus nominee.
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Once President Joe Biden is the official nominee, the spineless Democrats will have no choice, but to rally around him!
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After long predicting a Trump win, other models are belatedly starting to fall in line with The Keys to the White House. Predictit & 538 now have a dead heat and the Economist has Harris ahead at 52%.
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“He’s staying in. Here’s to the 13 Keys which don’t turn on fickle polling.”
~ Ron Klain
Former Chief of Staff to
President Joe Biden
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We've faced death threats, doxxing, swatting and intimidation at our doorstep. We will not be bullied. Federal law enforcement is now alerted.
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The issue with @NateSilver538 is he’s a compiler of polls, a clerk. He has no fundamental basis in history and elections. If we bounced presidents based on perceived physical ailments we would have bounced FDR, Reagan, and JFK.
None of the 13 keys is that the president is unable to reliably complete a sentence, but that seems salient to diagnosing his chances for reelection.
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Nate Silver has finally seen the light! Weeks after I predicted a Harris victory he has come down from a 2/3 probability of a Trump victory to a 58% probability of a Harris victory.
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Apparently, young women voters are not familiar with Trump’s “grab ‘em by the p****,” October surprise from 8 years ago, so here it is, please share: piped.video/watch?feature=…
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The media needs to WAKE UP and stop calling the administration’s actions “chaos.” THIS IS A COUP against American democracy.
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A supporter shared this picture. It was also a fan who shared President Biden‘s former chief of staff Ron Klain’s email resulting in this message from him: “He’s staying in. Here’s to the 13 Keys which don’t turn on fickle polling.”
July 19, 2024 4:25 PM PST
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The US economy grew at a stunning 2.8% last quarter, shattering expectations. Real inflation adjusted growth during the Biden years far exceeds the pre-COVID growth under Trump.
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Can Biden win? This scholar says yes. | Opinion houstonchronicle.com/opinion… via @houstonchron
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Presidential election 'Nostradamus' who has correctly predicted almost every winner for 40 years reveals Kamala Harris as his 2024 pick: dailymail.co.uk/news/article…
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President Joe Biden can best help the new ticket by governing well, specifically by brokering a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza, thereby potentially turning the Foreign/Military Success Key in the Democrats’ favor.
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While Joe Biden represents the best chance to win, if Democrats push him out, he must institute Plan B, by resigning the presidency, letting Kamala Harris become president and the consensus nominee, conditions under which, historically the White House party wins.
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Professor Who Accurately Predicted Past Elections Says 'Biden Can Win' newsweek.com/allan-lichtman-…
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Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong. I will assess the election and the keys on my live show this Thursday at 9 PM Eastern. @allanlichtmanyoutube.
Community note
Nate Silver’s model predicted a near- 50/50 possibility of Harris or Trump winning and he wrote a piece in the New York Times less than 2 weeks ago that said his gut feeling was that Trump would win. nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opi
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My prediction is that Kamala Harris will win in 2024, but everyone still needs to VOTE: piped.video/shorts/kSKjakNrp…
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Nate Silver has no understanding of or interest in the Keys to the White House. He seeks to discredit the Keys to advance his polling approach. He was wrong when he criticized my 2011 prediction of Obama‘s reelection and will be wrong again if he tries to manipulate the keys now.
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Democrats trash their own president and presumptive nominee who was selected by the voters. They do it publicly for weeks on end. Then his polling numbers fall and they say, see he can’t win. Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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I took the bronze medal today in the Maryland Senior Olympics 1500 m race, qualifying me for the national Senior Olympics in 2025!
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Everyone should cancel their Washington Post subscription after Bezos copped out on a presidential endorsement. It is shameful how far a once great newspaper has fallen. I cancelled today.
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According to my wife: How can Americans vote pro-choice on ballot measures, then elect Donald Trump. That’s prioritizing the price of eggs over your ovaries.
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If the reporting about @realDonaldTrump and Ukraine proves true and @SpeakerPelosi still stands in the way of impeachment she will become one of the worst enablers of evil in our history.
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Keep in mind that Harris must win two-thirds of the delegate votes not just a simple majority to lock down the Contest Key on the 13 Keys to the White House prediction system.
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The media criticizes Harris for vague economic plans, even though everything will change when she deals with Congress and interest groups. Yet it downplays Trump ‘s deranged gibberish and his torrent of dangerous lies about cutthroat migrants, bad genes, the hurricane response, climate change, reproductive rights, election fraud, and so many other topics.
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The Des Moines Register poll, historically the most accurate survey for Iowa and the Midwest now has Harris ahead by 3 points. We know that early polls don’t matter, but we are 2 days out. Plus, swings in the polls matter more than the polls themselves. That is a 7 point swing in her favor from its September poll.
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In contrast to the first debate, it looks like the second debate of 2024 with Kamala Harris may not happen. Tough guy Donald Trump is trying to duck out, “Donald Duck?”
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MY PREDICTION FOR 2020 IS OUT!
nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opini…
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I want to thank all the loyal members, subscribers, and viewers of our live show. We will go on and are assessing last night’s results. Please tune in on Thursday at 9 PM Eastern for a discussion of what happened and what the future holds for America. @allanlichtmanyoutube.
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Trump voters with buyer’s remorse, cry that they didn’t vote for what Trump is doing. Yes they did. They were warned repeatedly that this is precisely what Trump would do following the blueprint of Project 2025.
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I buried the hatchet with Nate Silver and hoped he’d be secure enough to follow. Nope. He’s out with another anti-Keys rant but no resonance. Just 14 comments after one day on YouTube with almost no support for Silver.
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Donald Trump mouthed unity at the Republican convention, then reverted to his sinister, divisive and dishonest rants.
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Twenty seven women have now accused Donald Trump, the self proclaimed “protector of women, whether the women like it or not,” of sexual abuse and/ or rape.
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I am watching the Democratic Party self destruct and enabling Donald Trump and the demise of our democracy.
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While @realdonaldtrump gets Rolls Royce care from 10 top medical professionals in a world-class hospital suite, he is in court trying to strike down the Affordable Care Act and deprive 20 million+ Americans of any insurance protection from COVID or other health challenges.
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This is Allan’s wife Karyn letting you know that Allan now stands atop Mount Olympus as a gold medalist in the 800 m race in the Maryland senior Olympics! ❤️
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The Harris campaign should run an ad until election day: Donald Trump saying I’m going to protect women, “whether the women want it or not.” Play the clip from Access Hollywood where he says “grab ‘em by the p****.” Add what the judge said in the E. Jean Carroll civil case, that Trump’s actions are colloquially known as rape. Conclude with the fact that he he bragged about overturning Roe v. Wade.
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My final prediction based on the Keys to the White House stands unchanged. I am still predicting that @realDonaldTrump becomes the first sitting president to lose reelection since 1992 and that Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.
piped.video/watch?v=z0PDVeBR…
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Tomorrow, Tuesday, November 5th is Election Day in America! If you have not already — VOTE!!
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I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention.
See my assessment below below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key.
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For the first time since the 2024 election, we’ve gone a full 36 hours without surprise Dominoes pizza deliveries, police visits, or any live-action harassment! It’s almost… peaceful. We have met or been in touch with nearly a dozen members of the local police in recent days. The FBI has been alerted. KNOW THIS: We will NOT be bullied or intimidated: newsweek.com/allan-lichtman-…?
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Trump invokes violence again, saying that to hit him gunmen must “shoot through the fake news [press corps] and I don’t mind that so much.” Watch apologists again try to explain this away. Dictatorships take hold when we dismiss what authoritarians plainly say.
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My oped on Plan B If they jettison Biden, a Plan B for Democrats: Make Kamala Harris president right now nydailynews.com/2024/07/19/i…
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States where abortion is on the ballot and how to VOTE PRO-CHOICE:
AZ - YES
CO - YES
FL - YES
MD – YES
MO - YES
MT – YES
NE - 434 - NO, 439- YES
NV – YES
NY – YES
SD – YES
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Maybe it’s fluctuating so much because polls are just snapshots and their reliability is faltering.
Our national polling average today would have Trump +1.3 vs. Harris, but it's been fluctuating rapidly. She was down more like 2-3 points post-debate, pre-RNC, and more like 4 points immediately post-RNC, pre-Biden announcement.
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In picking JD Vance for VP, Donald Trump has cloned himself and abandoned all pretense of unity.
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Trump stopped a town hall q & a, saying “Who the hell wants to hear questions anyway, right?” He then bizarrely swayed to music for 39 minutes. Imagine the media firestorm if Biden or Harris had done this. But it’s different with Trump though he’s vying to lead free world and control nuclear codes.
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Is the garbage truck caper Trump’s Michael Dukakis moment. He looks no less awkward and out of place in the garbage truck than Dukakis did in that infamous 1988 ad riding a tank. “One of the worst campaign backfires in history,”Politico said of the tank ad.
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“No one has ever been as dangerous to this country as Donald Trump… Now I realize he’s a total fascist. He is the most dangerous person to this country.”
~ General Mark Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in Bob Woodward’s book.
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I hope that now the Democratic Party can get past their self-destructive, foolishness and get behind our president.
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Predictit arguably the most reliable prediction market has seen a major swing to Harris who is now slightly ahead of Trump, essentially a dead heat, compared to an earlier hefty Trump lead.
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Those who lauded the keys when nearly alone they predicted Trump in 2016 are now attacking because they predict Harris. The keys produce non-partisan predictions not endorsements my views play no role I received congratulations from Trump in 2016 and predicted Reagan’s reelection in April 1982 when his approval rating was 43%.
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Silver’s last call had Harris very marginally ahead. He certainly was not predicting a Trump Electoral College landslide. And he said don’t trust my gut. So once again he can’t be wrong no matter what the outcome.
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According to my assessment of where the Keys stand now as detailed on the 13 Keys Tracker. See the charting below. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key and the criteria for turning them.
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Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman makes 2024 election pick: fox5dc.com/news/allan-lichtm…
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Where the Keys stand NOW as detailed on the 13 Keys Tracker. See the charting below. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, where we detail every Key and the criteria for turning them. I haven’t made my official prediction, I will sometime after the Democratic convention.
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My wife Karyn Strickler led the effort to codify Roe v. Wade in Maryland law in 1992. This November, protect reproductive rights by voting YES on Question 1, which enshrines the right to safe and legal abortion in MD's constitution.
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Biden made an unforced error by using the word garbage, however unclear, in any context regarding Trump supporters. He should have known that Trump and Vance would exploit this to the hilt.
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As in 2020, The New York Times will release my 2024 presidential prediction, based on The Keys to the White House. While the timeline could change, at the moment, the plan is to release the prediction after Labor Day and before the next presidential debate.
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“Let’s put her with a rifle..with 9 barrels shooting at her. OK, let’s see how she feels about it when the guns are trained on her face.“
~ Donald J. Trump candidate for president of United States regarding Liz Cheney.
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Nate. you don’t have the faintest idea about how to apply my keys. You are neither a historian or a political scientist or have any academic credentials of any kind. Remember you were wrong when you said the keys could early predict Obama’s reelection.
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lol... You guys have no idea what you're talking about. Did you guys do even a tiny bit of research into the keys themselves? Here, I'll link you guys my video explaining my pick. Maybe take 17 minutes and educate yourself on the system.
piped.video/watch?v=JoWt1EOA…
"Allan Lichtman’s 'keys' are nothing more than parlor tricks and folkways, the political equivalent of wearing garlic to protect yourself from vampires. Let’s talk about them."
Today's Triad from @JVLast:
thebulwark.com/p/allan-licht…
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A week ago, Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick offered up to a million dollars for proof of voter fraud. Easy money with 150+ votes & @realDonaldTrump’s claim of vast fraud. Nope. No takers. Confirmation of DHS finding that this was the most secure election ever. Money talks, BS walks.
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Wattch the full discussion of my 2024 presidential prediction and each Key to the White House in detail: piped.video/live/okYUg_Dx1iU…
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In a unprecedented turn of events in US history, multiple nominees for cabinet positions have been accused of sexual abuse: Hegseth, McMahon, Kennedy Junior, and Gaetz.
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My prediction is coming VERY soon in the New York Times and then our YouTube channel: piped.video/@allanlichtmanyo…
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Apparently, Saturday Night Live had filmed a segment of Lichtman versus Silver. It seems they cut and shelved it at least for a time. I encourage them to run it with so much attention now on the election.
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A mass deportation effort proposed by Trump would likely in ensnare many tens of thousands of US citizens. Testimony from state officials found that of 3251 registrants purged in Alabama as noncitizens some 2000 were US citizens.
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Advice to @JoeBiden. Show up in front of @realDonaldTrump's fort White House and address the demonstrators. Express your empathy and your plans for reforming police & addressing inequality in America.
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