Hinge Health ($HNGE) started trading and is worth ~$3.5B (up about 20% from pricing). The company priced at ~$3B market cap and ~6x ARR / run-rate multiple.
Hinge is a ~$500M ARR / run-rate revenue business, growing 50% year-over-year, 80%+ gross margins, is profitable, and has 10%+ free cash flow margins — objectively a very strong growth and financial profile.
Even so, the company is trading at ~7x run-rate revenue. The public markets can be a sobering reality on valuation multiples, even for companies with strong growth + margins. Kudos for the company pushing forward and getting public, though.
Hinge Health ($HNGE), a software and hardware (+AI) digital health company focused on MSK, filed for an IPO, the second tech IPO of the year. They have raised ~$850M, with the most recent round led by Coatue and Tiger during peak 2021 ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) at a $6.2 billion valuation. It could be a "down-round IPO."
While in the digital health space, the metrics look like a software business with recurring revenue, high gross margins (~80%) and net dollar retention of 117%. Hinge has 2,256 clients and 532K members.
A few metrics: LTM revenue of $390.4M, growing 33% YoY. $469M of implied ARR, growing 44% YoY. The average client pays $200K+/year. Hinge had an 18% non-GAAP operating margin and a 12% free cash flow margin in the most recent quarter.
Hinge is a Rule of 55 business, and all of their key metrics are improving.
How much will it be worth?
With $390M of LTM revenue and assuming they expect to grow 25% over the next 12 months (NTM) and trade at 10-12x NTM revenue, that’s a $4.9-$5.9B business, still below their last round price of $6.2 billion in 2021. It could trade higher, but it’s been almost 4 years to catch up to the last round, even with incredible execution…multiple compression is real as they were probably ~$100-150M of ARR when they raised their last round (40-60x multiple).
Even if Hinge prices below the last round, a “down-round IPO” is irrelevant to the long-term value creation opportunity…what matters is durable growth.